Muhurat Picks 2013 Company CMP Target Upside (%)

Transcription

1 Muhurat Picks 2013 Company CMP Target Upside (%) Larsen & Toubro Ltd 982 1, Maruti Suzuki India Ltd 1,636 1, Dhanuka Agritech Ltd Development Credit Bank Ltd Bharti Airtel Ltd Unichem Laboratories Ltd Tech Mahindra Ltd 1,526 1,850 21

2 Introduction The Market (Broader Indices) between Diwali to Diwali ( ) has given spectacular 15 percent return on back of robust liquidity inflows. The FIIs have net invested Rs90 billion so far during the calendar year 2013 versus Rs127 billion in the previous calendar year. The recent event of US government shutdown may delay the recovery of US economy. The lower US GDP growth would further delay the tapering of USD 85 billion bond buying program hence global liquidity inflows especially in emerging market will continue to drive the market going ahead. The rally in the stock market isn t broad based as only few sectors or companies have pulled up the indices and next phase of Bull Run to come from midcap stocks. The future market trend is likely to be driven by outcome of forthcoming assembly elections in Delhi, MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. In addition to that, initiatives by government to put various core projects on fast track where bankers have already lent money are also likely to lift the economic activities in the second half of the current financial year. The decline in CAD due to reduction in Gold import coupled with double digit export growth has also key positives for the economy In recently concluded monetary policy review, RBI raised Repo rate by 25 bps citing the higher consumer price inflation. We believe, RBI may has already done away with rate hike a may now focus growth to balance the objective of both inflation and growth. Looking at the current market scenario we have identified seven stock idea with rich fundamentals for Muhurat Trading on Samvat 2070 scheduled on 3rd November, "With a hope that you attain success and bliss with every light that is lit during the DIwali." Contd... SBICAP Securities Limited / 2

3 Larsen & Toubro Ltd. BSE Code: I NSE Symbol: LT Outperformer in the industry: L&T has witnessed strong growth in order inflows. The Y-o-Y order inflows during H1FY14 clocked 11 percent to Rs1.76 Lakh crore. These orders are nearly 2.4x of its FY13 consolidated revenue which provide strong medium term revenue visibility under current economic scenario. Business environment to pick in second half: The recent fast track approval of infrastructure projects worth rupees trillions to start bearing fruits in terms of new order inflows and expedition in execution process. Strong Performance: The revenue and PAT during the quarter up by 10 and 7 percent respectively as compared to de-growth in first quarter of the current year. The order book on the other hand clocked 27% Y-o-Y during the second quarter. Most of these orders are coming from gulf region and that may continue to be focus area. The company is trading nearly 60% lower to its all time high despite good performance. The company has not yet participated in the recent rally in stock market. At current price of Rs982 the stock is trading at 13.1x of its TTM consolidated Q2FY14 earning whereas on P/BV the same is available at 1.9x. We have positive views on the stock and hence recommend buying the stock with price target of Rs1100. CMP (`) 982 Target (`) 1100 Upside Potential (%) 12 Net Sales (Cr) 43, , , ,498.0 EBITDA (Cr) 6, , , ,336.2 Adj. PAT (Cr) 3, , , ,613.5 EPS (Rs) Book Value (Rs) OPM (%) NPM (%) CMP ( Rs) PE (x) P/BV (x) D/E (x) ROE (%) ROCE (%) L&T is trading above its Upper Bollinger band and the band is expanding in monthly chart. The counter has closed its previous month with increase in volume and the counter is trading at near to its all time high and is expected to further move upwards The counter has closed above downward sloping trend line joining high of made on November 2007 and high of made on November MACD is above zero line moving upwards and RSI has given positive diversion in monthly chart. SBICAP Securities Limited / 3

4 Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. BSE Code: I NSE Symbol: MARUTI Riding on rural growth: The rural volume numbers which drive nearly 1/3rd of its domestic sales are in good shape given robust monsoon above 5% of normal and expected bumper Kharif crop. The rural sales are growing at 20% vis-à-vis mere flat 6% growth in domestic volume. The company is also doubling its rural presence from current 45,000 villages to 1 Lakh in current year. Increased localization to improve margins: Maruti is consolidating further its vendor base to increase sourcing from a smaller and more stable base of Tier-I suppliers to scale down logistics costs and to leverage economies of scale thereby improving the margin. Maruti has witnessed nearly 100 bps improvement in margin on account of localization. Export and improvement in macroeconomic to lighten the H2 prospects: The export is growing at decent phase with 27% growth in Q2. The improvement macroeconomic fundamental to bring uptick in demand. H2 is expected to be better than H1. We believe that worst may be over for the automobile sector and given the low base effect of previous year we are expecting double digit volume growth in the H2. At current price of Rs1636 the stock is trading at 16.2x of its TTM consolidated Q2FY14 earning whereas on P/BV the same is available at 2.6x. We have positive views on the stock and hence recommend buying the stock with price target of Rs1800. CMP (`) 1636 Target (`) 1800 Upside Potential (%) 10 Net Sales (Cr) 29, , , ,304.4 EBITDA (Cr) 3, , , ,327.5 Adj. PAT (Cr) 2, , , ,173.3 EPS (Rs) Book Value (Rs) OPM (%) NPM (%) CMP (Rs) 1,636 1,636 1,636 1,636 PE (x) P/BV (x) D/E (x) ROE (%) ROCE (%) Maruti has taken support around 50% retracement in previous month from the swing high of Rs and to swing low of Rs MACD has given a positive diversion in previous week and the upward projected resistance is around swing high of Rs The counter has re-entered the long term upwards slopping channel and the resistance trend line is projecting target around level of 1900 SBICAP Securities Limited / 4

5 Dhanuka Agritech Ltd. BSE Code: I NSE Symbol: DHANUKA Diversified product portfolio: The Company has well diversified portfolio which includes insecticide, pesticides and herbicide which are available in various forms like liquid, dust, powder and granules. The products are specialized according to all sorts of requirements like type of pest or weed, nature of soil, water availability etc. The products are manufactured having various base chemicals which could suit different kind of problems to be tackled. Strong distribution network: The Company has a pan-india presence through its marketing offices in all major states in India, with a network of more than 7,000 distributors/ dealers selling to over 75,000 retailers across India and reaching out to more than 10 million farmers. The company focuses on marketing and penetrating interiors of India and also in developing long term relationship with farmers which has lead to enhanced awareness about benefit of agro-chemicals. Multiple tie-ups with MNCs: The Company has technical tie-ups with companies like Chemtura, Oro Agri, Bayer, Arysta life science which are mostly US and Japan based MNCs. These MNCs have strong products offerings but they do not have strong distribution and long reach which Dhanuka has, and hence with the help of this company the MNCs are able to market their products Strong financials: The Company's PAT has grown at a CAGR of 29% from FY9 to FY13, while EBIDTA margin has improved from % in FY09 to 13.75% in FY13. PAT margins have improved significantly from 6.09% in FY09 to 9.97% in FY13. The company has good RONW of 27.0% in FY 13 and also has a low Debt to Equity ratio of CMP (`) 140 Target (`) 155 Upside Potential (%) 11 Particulars FY11A FY12A FY13A Net Sales (Cr) EBITDA (Cr) Adj. PAT (Cr) EPS (Rs) Book Value (Rs) Particulars FY11A FY12A FY13A OPM (%) NPM (%) CMP ( Rs) PE (x) P/BV (x) D/E (x) ROE (%) Given the robust monsoon during the current year above 5% average rainfall, we believe the demand for agro-chemical to remain robust in coming quarters. At current price of Rs140 the stock is trading at 9.7x of its TTM consolidated Q2FY14 earning whereas on P/BV the same is available at 2.6x. We have positive views on the stock and hence recommend buying the stock with price target of Rs155. Dhanuka has shown morning star pattern in weekly chart around 61.8% support from swing low of made on march 2013 and swing high of made on July 2013 in the weekly chart. Morning star pattern is a bottom reversal pattern which may take the counter till swing high of 153 made on august The counter has also made bullish engulfing candle pattern in monthly chart with increase in volumes. SBICAP Securities Limited / 5

6 Development Credit Bank BSE Code: I NSE Symbol: DCB High growth prospects: The Company expects to grow at a CAGR of 25% in next two to three year and aims to double the size of its balance sheet from the current position. Focus on retail segment and Tier 2 to Tier 6 cities: The Company expects retail segment to grow at a CAGR of 40% in the coming two years and expects the retail portfolio to increase up to 60% from 40% currently. The company aims to be number one player in tier 2 to tier 6 cities and plans for expansion in these areas where banking has not been penetrative. Improving asset quality: The Company has shifted its focus towards secured lending only and has no tolerance for restructuring the loans. This has lead to improving asset quality which can be seen from the fact that the gross NPAs have declined from 8.6% in 2010 to 3.18% currently. This clearly suggests that the asset quality is under stringent check and would improve here on. CASA ratio likely to improve: The Company is increasingly focusing on tier 2 to tier 6 cities which help them maintain PSL and are also important source of CASA. The company is expected to maintain the CASA of 27-30% going ahead. At current price of Rs51 the stock is trading at 1.3x of its FY13 P/BV. We have positive views on the stock and hence recommend buying the stock with price target of Rs58 CMP (`) 51 Target (`) 58 Upside Potential (%) 14 NII (Rs Cr) PAT (Rs Cr) (78.5) EPS (Rs) BV (Rs) ABV (Rs) P/BV (x) P/ABV (x) Div Yield (%) CMP (Rs) ROE (%) (13.1) ROA (%) (1.3) DCB has given breakout from the sideways channel on the upside with increase in volumes in monthly chart. The counter may face cluster resistance around 60 level which is also coinciding with the upper channel range target The counter is making higher tops and higher bottoms in monthly chart. MACD is above zero line moving upwards and RSI has given positive diversion in monthly chart. SBICAP Securities Limited / 6

7 Bharti Airtel Ltd. BSE Code: I NSE Symbol: BHARTIARTL Largest telecom operator in India: Bharti Airtel is the largest telecom operator in India in terms of number of subscribers as well as revenue. The company leads the subscriber base with 28% market share and the revenue market share for the company is 30%. Apart from mobile services the company offers DTH and Internet services. African business showing optimism: The major concern for the company has been its Africa business which it had acquired in 2010 is showing signs of improvement. In Africa, monthly average revenue per user rose 5 percent to $5.7 sequentially while the revenue grew by 2% to $1.12 Bn. Data revenue to drive growth: Airtel has largest number of data subscribers and this service would be the next key driver for the company. The trend in urban parts of the country seems to be changing with more number of subscribers using internet via mobile for various use. Company's data revenue as percentage of revenue now stands at 9.2% from 5.25% a year ago. Industry showing consolidation: In 2007 the telecom companies in India entered into price war to acquire and maintain subscribers and every telecom operator saw decline in margins as well as ARPU, but the scenario has changed after The Supreme court cancelled 122 licenses which reduced competition and hence now the margins and profitability seems to be improving. The telecom operators are cutting down on free usages and increasing rates marginally, which shows the operators are having better bargaining power that earlier. At current price of Rs367 the stock is trading at 76xx of its TTM consolidated Q2FY14 earning whereas on P/BV the same is available at 2.5x. We have positive views on the stock and hence recommend buying the stock with price target of Rs412. CMP (`) 367 Target (`) 412 Upside Potential (%) 12 Net Sales (Cr) 41, , , ,359.0 EBITDA (Cr) 16, , , ,862.7 Adj. PAT (Cr) 9, , , ,136.0 EPS (Rs) Book Value (Rs) OPM (%) NPM (%) CMP (Rs) PE (x) P/BV (x) D/E (x) ROE (%) ROCE (%) Bharti Airtel has closed above long term downward sloping trend line joining highest weekly close of October 2007 at and July 2011 weekly close of made on November 2007 MACD has given a positive diversion in previous week above zero line with increase in volumes in weekly chart. Andrews' Pitchfork trend channel tool is projecting the median trend line target around 420 levels on the higher side. SBICAP Securities Limited / 7

8 Unichem Laboratories Ltd. BSE Code: I NSE Symbol: UNICHEMLAB Domestic formulation business to grow at a CAGR of 13.9% between FY13-FY15e, driven by 1) Unichem's efforts to build brands by leveraging brand equity that it has built through brands like Losar and Ampoxin (2) increased focus on statins and sartans (other than Losaratan) (3) sharpened focus on domestic formulations business through reorganization of product portfolio, field resource allocation and customer coverage alignments. Export will be the major revenue driver: Between FY09-13, its overseas revenue had grown at a CAGR of 24.6%, during FY13- FY15e we forecast it to grow at a CAGR of 18.2%, which would be driven by (1) improved performance of its subsidiaries (2) increased focus on emerging markets (like Brazil, Australia and New Zealand) (3) Stepped into contractual business (in FY13 contractual sales were 35.% of total overseas revenues) and (4) Higher pursuit to expand their business line in the US. Margins set to improve: We expect EBITDA margin to improve from here on, due to 1) MR Strength of Unichem has reached to an optimum level (currently ~2400) and productivity per MR to improve now onwards. 2) Conversion of remaining 2/3 distributors to C&F agents is expected to be accomplished in next months 3) US and Brazilian subsidiary have also shown a sign of revitalization, together with an improvement at Niche generic, are expected to slice down the difference between standalone and consolidated operations. The Company has a strong balance sheet, along with a meager debt of Rs.52.3crs (D/E ratio: 0.07x) and positive free cash flow. We expect its CVS, anti-diabetic and CNS segments to grow at 16%, 15% and 20% respectively, as lifestyle diseases and the cases of epilepsy + depression are on rise. At the current market price of Rs.175 the stock is trading at a P/E of 11.6x and 9.1x of its FY14e and FY15e earnings, respectively. The value of Unichem's business is pegged at Rs211 per share by discounting FY15e EPS of Rs19.2 by 11x. CMP (`) 175 Target (`) 211 Upside Potential (%) 21 Net Sales (Cr) ,078.9 EBITDA (Cr) Adj. PAT (Cr) EPS (Rs) Book Value (Rs) OPM (%) NPM (%) CMP (Rs) PE (x) P/BV (x) D/E (x) ROE (%) ROCE (%) Unichem lab has given breakout from the downwards sloping channel on the upside with increase in volumes in monthly chart. The counter is making higher tops and higher bottoms in monthly chart. RSI has given a positive diversion in previous month and the upward projected resistance is around swing high of Rs.209 level made on January SBICAP Securities Limited / 8

9 Tech Mahindra Ltd. BSE Code: I NSE Symbol: TECHM Largest IT solution provider to telecom industry: With its global footprint and presence in more than 31 countries, Tech Mahindra is the largest IT solution provider to global telecommunication companies; it leads the Rs bn Indian telecom software services market in FY 12 with 20.9 % market share it has positioned itself as an end to end service provider across telecom value chain through its service offerings of applications, IMS, BPO, network design & engineering, security, VAS, product engineering, performance engineering & Testing, and has become a preferred transformation partner for several leading wire-line, wireless & broadband operators in Europe, Asia-Pacific & North America. Mahindra Satyam merger provides business synergies, diversification & scalability: The merger of Mahindra Satyam with Tech Mahindra has resulted into creation of USD 2.4 bn entity with over 75,000+ strong work force and 350+ active clients (including Fortune Global 500 companies), across 54 countries. The joint entity has deep competencies and a balanced mix of revenues from verticals such as Telecom, Manufacturing, Media & Entertainment, BFSI, Retail and Healthcare. The combined entity will leverage Tech Mahindra's expertise in Mobility, System Integration (SI), managed services and BPO to better penetrate the opportunity presented by Mahindra Satyam' diverse set of clients across multiple verticals. Winning Deals across the globe Robust order inflow: Tech Mahindra is expanding its client based rapidly and has won some large deals like a deal from a strategic energy & utilities account for infrastructure and application support from a Fortune 10 Energies & Utilities organization on back of proven experience in large scale support engagements, also a leading European mobile telephone major selected Tech Mahindra for a multicountry terminal testing deal in Europe which involves test engineering and consulting support. CMP (`) 1526 Target (`) 1850 Upside Potential (%) 21 Net Sales (Cr) 4, , , ,798.4 EBITDA (Cr) 1, , ,424.2 Adj. PAT (Cr) EPS (Rs) Book Value (Rs) OPM (%) NPM (%) CMP ( Rs) 1,526 1,526 1,526 1,526 PE (x) P/BV (x) D/E (x) ROE (%) ROCE (%) At current price of Rs1526 the stock is trading at 32x of its TTM consolidated Q2FY14 earning whereas on P/BV the same is available at 8.3x. We have positive views on the stock and hence recommend buying the stock with price target of Rs412 TECHM is making higher tops and higher bottom in the monthly charts. The counter has made a big white candle in previous month showing strength in up move. The projected target is around 1850 which is also coinciding with 150% extension from the low of made on January 2009 and high of made on January SBICAP Securities Limited / 9

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