RESEARCH. Investment Highlights: Other Positives. Some of the negatives.

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1 RESEARCH IDBI Bank Ltd. ACCUMULATE Key Indicators as on 15/01/2015 SOURCE:CMIE Closing Price (Rs.) EPS (Rs.) - TTM 5.28 P/E - TTM BV per Share (Rs.) PB 0.55 Yield% 1.32 Mkt Cap (Rs. Crore) Advances as on Sept-14 (Rs. Crore) Deposits as on Sept-14 (Rs. Crore) Beta 1.69 NIM% as on Sept NPA% as on Sept ROA% as on Sept CASA% as on Sept Face Value 10 Shares Outstanding crores Equity Share capital in ` Crores Share holding (%) Dec-2014 Promoters Public 7.89 FIIs 2.90 Others Quarterly chart since 1999 Investment Highlights: Available at a discount to its adjusted book value offering huge margin of safety Restructured Assets doesn t seem large considering the following :- Net Interest Income Consistent Commission Likely Interest Rate cut in the future Conservative lending approach during sluggish period will help IDBI perform better going forward Management plans of branch expansion likely to increase CASA% as CASA per branch highest amongst its peers Other Positives Provision Coverage ratio better than its peers Stable Net NPA ratio as compared to its peers Trading below its 10 years average Adj. PB of 1.08 Some of the negatives Lowest NIM among its peers Low CASA% Ratio ROA & ROE low as compared to peers Pg. 1

2 Investment Rationale: Available at a discount to its adjusted book value offering huge margin of safety Subtracting NPA per share and adjusting current value of investment which gives net book value of Rs per share (PB 0.65) Particulars Rs. per Share Book Value 140 Book Value of Investment -20 Market value of Investment 36.7 NPA per share -40 Net Book value Name of Company Valuation Method Holding Percentage % Market Value (Cr) IDBI Assets Management Ltd 5% AUM IDBI Capital Market Service ltd Book Value IDBI Federal Life Insurance company PB of Small industries development bank of India PB of National securities depository limited As per CDSL Valuations Asset reconstruction company (India) limited PB of Credit analysis and research limited STCI finance limited PB of National stock exchange of India limited Clearing Corporation of India Book Value Total 5884 (Note: - We have given low valuation of PB 1 for SIDBI, ARCIL & STCI Finance). These businesses can also be given a P/B multiple of 2 times. If valued so, then the Net Book Value rises by Rs. 13 per share. Pg. 2

3 Restructured Assets doesn t seem large considering the following :- 1. NII 2. Commission 3. Interest rate cuts in the next 4-6 quarters The Restructured Assets of Rs cr as on Sept 2014 does not seem too large considering the following factors :- 1. FY 2014 NII of Rs crores 2. FY 2014 Commission of Rs crores 3. 1% fall in Interest rate likely to get the benefit of Rs crores approximately. (Note : Restructured loans are directly linked to the Indian Economy) 7, , , , , , , Net Interest Income(Cr) FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY , , , , , NIM (%) (Rs. in crore) Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Commission, exchange and brokerage Category (Rs. in crore) Sept 2014 HTM AFS HFT Total Government securities SASF Securities Shares (Equity) Shares (Preference) Debentures/ Bonds Subsidiaries / Joint Ventures Security Receipts Others (CPs/CDs/MF) etc Total Investments Pg. 3

4 Pie chart of Restructured Assets as on Sept 2014 Others, 24% Infrastructure, 27% Hotel, 3% Iron and Steel, 3% Ship Building, 3% Telecommunic ations, 4% Air Transport, 3% Metal Industry, 8% Textiles, 4% Electricity Generation, 14% Electrical Machinery, 8% Conservative lending approach during sluggish period will help IDBI perform better going forward You may note from the below table, IDBI Bank tends to grow better with increase in GDP & becomes conservative during bad times. The Advances of IDBI Bank from FY have grown at 19% as compared to 7% for the period FY Advances Mar 04 Mar 05 Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar 08 Mar 09 Mar 10 CAGR IDBI Bank % Allahabad Bank % IOB % Corporation Bank % Union Bank % (Source : Prowess) Pg. 4

5 Advances Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar 14 CAGR IDBI Bank % Allahabad Bank % IOB % Corporation Bank % Union Bank % (Source : Prowess) Branch expansion likely to increase CASA% Focus of management to increase the number of branches along with increasing the retail deposits contribution will help improve the CASA ratio. The Management has set a target to open 600 more branches in FY 15. No. Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Sep 14 Branches ATMs CASA per Branch highest amongst its peers CASA per Branch(Rs. in cr) Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 IDBI Bank IOB Corporation Bank Union Bank Allahabad Bank Branch expansion will help to increase CASA Low CASA amongst its peers 40.0 CASA% Sept Union Bank Of India Indian Overseas Bank Allahabad Bank I D B I Bank Ltd. Corporation Bank Pg. 5

6 OTHER POSITIVES Provision Coverage Ratio better than its peers PCR(%) Sept 2014 Stable Net NPA ratio as compared to its peers As on Sept N.NPAs (Cr) Net NPA (%) Trading below its 10 years average Adj. PB of Adj PB NPA% Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 (Note :- Adjusted PB Book Value per share Less NPA per share)(source : Prowess) Pg. 6

7 Some of the Negatives Lowest NIM amongst its peers NIM (%) Sept 2014 (Note: - This is mainly because major portion of deposits includes term deposits which lead to increase in cost of fund and also current deposits have not increased significantly) As on Sept 2014 ROA & ROE low as compared to peers Allahabad Cor Bank IOB Union Bank of India IDBI ROE ROA Pg. 7

8 Company Profile: IDBI Ltd the principal financial conglomerate was incorporated under an Act of Parliament in 1964 as a wholly owned subsidiary of Reserve Bank of India, for monitoring and coordinating the activities of financial institutions at national and state levels. In 1994 IDBI instituted IDBI Bank Ltd. as an independent commercial bank subsidiary. But in 2005 IDBI Bank Ltd again merged with IDBI as a scheme of amalgamation. IDBI Bank started working as a commercial bank on 1 st October It provides services like Retail Banking, Corporate Banking, Agri Business & Microfinance & SME Banking. The Bank's distribution network comprises of 1,488 Branches and 2,727 ATMs as on Sept The Bank has initiated the process for setting up branch offices at Singapore and representative office at Shanghai. 19% Advances 0% 8% 25% Advances Infrastructure lending Deposits Demand deposits 11% Saving deposits 12% 48% Cor Banking grp Retail banking grp Term deposits 77% Quarterly Results (Standalone) (Rs. Crore) June 2013 Sept 2013 Dec 2013 Mar 2014 June 2014 Sept 2014 Total Income 7, , , , , , Income from operations 6, , , , , , Other Income , Total Expenses 7, , , , , , Salary Total other expenses Interest expenses 5, , , , , , PBPT 1, , , , , Provisions & contingencies , , PBT Corporate Tax PAT Pg. 8

9 From NAYAN M. VALA SECURITIES PVT.LTD.RESEARCH Analyst Certification We /I, Maulik Shah, MBA, Ashwini Sonawane, MMS, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report; hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Disclaimers and Disclosures-: Nayan M Vala Securities Pvt. Ltd. (CIN- U67120MH2005PTC152929) is a Broking Firm and a 1st batch member of The National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE) since Nayan M Vala Securities Pvt. Ltd. is a corporate trading member of Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE), National Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE), MCX Stock Exchange Limited (MCX-SX). Nayan M Vala Securities Pvt. Ltd. is engaged in the business of stock broking (Institutional and retail) and depository participant. Nayan M Vala Securities Pvt. Ltd. is under the process of seeking registration under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, NAYAN M VALA SECURITIES PVT. LTD. hereby declares that it has not defaulted with any stock exchange nor its activities were suspended by any stock exchange with whom it is registered in last five years. NAYAN M VALA SECURITIES PVT. LTD. has not been debarred from doing business by any Stock Exchange / SEBI or any other authorities; nor has its certificate of registration been cancelled by SEBI at any point of time. NAYAN M VALA SECURITIES PVT. LTD. offers research services to clients as well as prospects. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Other disclosures by Nayan M Vala Securities Pvt. Ltd. (Research Entity) and its Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 with reference to the subject company(s) covered in this report-: This document has been prepared by the Research Division of NAYAN M VALA SECURITIES PVT. LTD. and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of NAYAN M VALA SECURITIES PVT. LTD. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, NAYAN M VALA SECURITIES PVT. LTD. has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Neither NAYAN M VALA SECURITIES PVT. LTD. nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient's particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an independent expert/advisor. NAYAN M VALA SECURITIES PVT. LTD. or its associates may have financial interest in the subject company. Research Analyst or his/her relative s financial interest in the subject company - NO NAYAN M VALA SECURITIES PVT. LTD. or its associates and Research Analyst or his/her relative s does not have any material conflict of interest in the subject company. The Research Analyst or (NAYAN M VALA SECURITIES PVT. LTD.) have not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. NAYAN M VALA SECURITIES PVT. LTD. or its associates does not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research Report. Research Analyst or his/her relatives have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company at the Pg. 9

10 end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research Report - NO NAYAN M VALA SECURITIES PVT. LTD. or its associates have received any compensation for brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months - NO NAYAN M VALA SECURITIES PVT. LTD. or its associates have received any compensation or other benefits from the Subject Company or third party in connection with the research report. Subject Company has been the client of NAYAN M VALA SECURITIES PVT. LTD. or its associates during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report and NAYAN M VALA SECURITIES PVT. LTD. may has co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past twelve months. - NO The Research Analyst has served as officer, director or employee of the subject company - NO Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein, and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may make investment decisions that may be inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. In reviewing these materials, you should be aware that any or all of the foregoing, among other things, may give rise to real or potential conflicts of interest including but not limited to those stated herein. Additionally, other important information regarding our relationships with the company or companies that are the subject of this material is provided herein. This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject NAYAN M VALA SECURITIES PVT. LTD. or its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. All material presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to NAYAN M VALA SECURITIES PVT. LTD. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of NAYAN M VALA SECURITIES PVT. LTD. All trademarks, service marks and logos used in this report are trademarks or registered trademarks of NAYAN M VALA SECURITIES PVT. LTD. or its Group Companies. The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any manner whatsoever and any unauthorized reading, dissemination, distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly authorized. Please ensure that you have read Risk Disclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segments as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in Indian Securities Market. In so far as this report includes current or historic information, it is believed to be reliable, although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. MEMBER: NATIONAL STOCK EXCHANGE OF INDIA LTD CODE NO MEMBER: BOMBAY STOCK EXCHANGE LTD CODE NO MEMBER: THE CALCUTTA STOCK EXCHANGE ASSOCIATION LTD CODE NO. 506 MEMBER: MCX-SX CODE NO CIN NO. U67120MH2005PTC NAYAN M. VALA SECURITIES PVT.LTD. Tel: (+91-22) / , Cosmos Court, Fax Above Waman Hari Pethe Jewellers research@nayanmvala.com S. V. Road, Vile-Parle (West), Website: Mumbai INDIA Pg. 10

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