Federal Bank Ltd. Banking/Finance. Accumulate RETAIL EQUITY RESEARCH

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1 Q1FY19 RESULT UPDATE RETAIL EQUITY RESEARCH Federal Bank Ltd. Banking/Finance BSE CODE: NSE CODE: FEDERALBNK Bloomberg CODE: FB IN SENSEX: 36,519 Accumulate Rating as per Midcap 12months investment period CMP Rs. 88 TARGET Rs.101 RETURN 15% 18 th July 2018 Strong operating Performance Federal Bank Limited is a major Indian commercial bank in the private sector headquartered at Kerala having 1252 branches and 1696 ATMs spread across different States in India with a loan book size of ~ 92,000Cr. Interest income grew by 15% and reflected 22% growth in NII led by strong loan growth coupled with stable NIM PAT increased by strong 25% in Q1FY19 due to lower provisioning YoY. Stable GNPA ratio at 3%/ and NNPA ratio slightly increased by 3bps to 1.72% in Q1FY19 against 1.69% in Q4FY18. Loan book grew by 24% YoY with the strong growth across Retail, SME and Corporate segments, while deposits grew by 16% YoY. Robust retail network will lead to 22% CAGR in loan book and 30% CAGR in earnings over FY18-20E. On the back of strong PAT growth against de-growth in last quarter & with healthy earnings outlook, we value FB at 1.6x FY20E adjusted BV and recommend Accumulate with a target price of Rs 101. Strong PAT growth on account of lower provisioning... Interest income witnessed 15% growth and contributed towards 22% increase in Net Interest Income. PAT increased by 25% YoY mainly due to 87% reduction in provision which was at Rs.199cr against Rs.370cr in Q4FY18. NII grew by 22% YoY supported by healthy loan growth of 24% YoY. Net Interest Margins remained stable QoQ at 3.1%. The GNPA ratio was stable at 3% and NNPA ratio slightly increased to 1.72% in Q1FY19 against 1.69% in Q4FY18. We factor 18% CAGR growth in NII over FY18-20E supported by strong loan growth. We expect fresh slippages again to decline with 30% CAGR in earnings over FY18-20E. Healthy loan growth across segments... Loan book grew by 24% YoY in Q1FY19, supported by robust growth across segments. Corporate loans grew by 32% while Retail and SME grew 20% and 17% respectively on yearly basis. FB has improved its market share (deposit) by 8 bps to 0.97% and advances also by 8 bps to 1.07% YoY with the help of aggressive marketing strongly supported by digital and retail banking. Deposits grew by 16% YoY, low cost CASA ratio increased by 3bps YoY to 33.47%. Corporate, SME and Retail loans will continue to see strong traction and we factor 22% CAGR in loan book over FY18-20E. Stable Asset quality... GNPA is stable at 3% QoQ and NNPA ratio has slightly increased from 1.69% in Q4FY18 to 1.72% in Q1FY19. The fresh slippage reported in corporate segment was at Rs207 against Rs169cr and in SME at Rs90cr against Rs.114cr in Q1 FY18. Fresh slippages increased by 8.4% to 461cr YoY. But, the fresh slippages reported in the last quarter was at Rs.872cr and which is declined significantly by 89% to Rs.461cr. The sequential decline in slippages helped to reduce the provisioning by 87% to 1992cr in Q1FY19 against Rs.3715cr in Q4FY18. Valuations... We remain positive in the wake of lower slippages coupled with strong earnings growth. We factor 30% CAGR in earnings supported by 22% CAGR in loan book over FY18-20E. We value FB on FY20E Adj PBV at 1.6X and maintain our target price to Rs101 and recommend to Accumulate. Company Data Market Cap (cr) Rs. 17,331 Outstanding Shares (cr) 197 Free Float 100% Dividend Yield 1% 52 week high Rs week low Rs.74 6m average volume (cr) 0.12 Beta 0.93 Face value Rs2 Shareholding (%) Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Promoters FII s MFs/Insti Public Total Price Performance 3 month 6 month 1 Year Absolute Return -10.9% -13.6% -27.0% Absolute Sensex 6.4% 3.6% 17.6% Relative Return -17.3% -17.1% -44.6% *over or under performance to benchmark index Standalone (Rs.cr) FY18A FY19E FY20E NII 3,583 4,537 5,025 Growth (%) 17.4% 26.6% 10.8% NIM (%) 3.3% 3.3% 3.0% PAT Adj 879 1,313 1,460 Growth (%) 5.8% 49.4% 11.2% Adj.EPS Growth (%) -5.4% 46.0% 11.2% P/E P/B Adj. P/B ROE % Sreenish S R Analyst

2 Quarterly Financials Profit & Loss Account (Rs cr) Q1FY19 Q1FY18 YoY Growth % Q4FY18 QoQ Growth % Interest Income % 2,548 5% Interest Expense % 1,615 5% Net Interest Income (NII) % 933 5% Fee and Other Income % % Total Income % 1, % Expenditure % 659-2% Provision % % PBT % % Tax % Reported PAT % % Adjustment Adj PAT % % Diluted EPS (Rs) % % Change in estimates Old estimates New estimates Change % Year / Rs cr FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E Net Interest Income (NII) 4,305 4,884 4,537 5, NIM (%) bps +1bps Fee and Other Income 1,368 1,641 1,368 1, Adj PAT 1,190 1,420 1,313 1, Diluted EPS (Rs)

3 Standalone Financials Profit & Loss Account Y.E March (Rs cr) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Interest Income 7,748 8,677 9,753 12,822 15,296 Interest Expense 5,240 5,625 6,170 8,285 10,272 Net Int. Income 2,508 3,053 3,583 4,537 5,025 % Change 5.3% 21.7% 17.4% 26.6% 10.8% Non Int. Income 808 1,082 1,159 1,368 1,641 Operating Income 3,316 4,134 4,742 5,904 6,666 % Change 1.8% 24.7% 14.7% 24.5% 12.9% Pre Prov. Profit 1,424 1,925 2,291 2,896 3,126 Prov. & Conting PBT 720 1,307 1,344 2,020 2,246 % Change -52.7% 81.6% 2.9% 50.3% 11.2% Tax Tax Rate (%) 34% 36% 35% 35% 35% Reported PAT ,313 1,460 Adj* Adj PAT ,313 1,460 % change -52.7% 74.7% 5.8% 49.4% 11.2% No. of shares (cr) EPS (Rs) % change -52.7% 74.7% -5.4% 46.0% 11.2% DPS (Rs) CEPS (Rs) Ratios Y.E March (Rs cr) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Profitability & Return Ratios Interest yield (%) Cost of funds (%) Net int. spread (%) NIM (%) ROE (%) ROA (%) Loan (growth) Deposit (growth) Total Fund Asset Quality GNPA (%) NNPA (%) Capital Cap adeq ratio (%) Valuation ratios P/E (x) P/BV (x) P/ABV (x) Balance Sheet Y.E March (Rs cr) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Cash 3,775 4,577 5,133 8,390 9,153 Loans & Advances 58,090 73,336 91,957 1,11,501 1,36,734 Investments 25,155 28,196 30,781 29,642 36,229 Gross Fixed Assets 1,189 1,266 1,404 1,504 1,599 Net Fixed Assets CWIP Intangible Assets Def. Tax (Net) Other Assets 7,041 8,379 9,985 11,168 13,353 Total Assets 94,581 1,14,977 1,38,314 1,61,158 1,95,872 Deposits 79,172 97,665 1,11,992 1,24,447 1,41,989 Debt Funds 5,115 5,897 11,534 19,590 34,642 Other Liabilities 1,743 2,078 1,607 2,980 3,557 Provisions Equity Capital Reserves & Surplus 7,747 8,598 11,816 13,105 14,541 Shareholder s Fund 8,091 8,942 12,210 13,499 14,935 Total Liabilities 94,581 1,14,977 1,38,314 1,61,159 1,95,872 BVPS (Rs) % change 4.2% 10.2% 19.4% 10.6% 10.6% Adj. BVPS (Rs)

4 Recommendation Summary (last 3 years) Dates Rating Target 25-July -16 Accumulate October -16 Hold March -17 Hold May -17 Hold July- 17 Buy October- 17 Accumulate January-18 Buy May-18 Accumulate July-18 Accumulate 101 Source: Bloomberg, Geojit Research Investment Rating Criteria Large Cap Stocks; Buy - Upside is above 10%. Hold - Upside is between 0% - 10%. Reduce - Downside is more than 0%. Neutral - Not Applicable Mid Cap and Small Cap; Buy - Upside is above 15%. Accumulate - Upside is between 10% - 15%. Hold - Upside is between 0% - 10%. Reduce/Sell - Downside is more than 0%. Neutral - Not Applicable To satisfy regulatory requirements, we attribute Accumulate as Buy and Reduce as Sell. The recommendations are based on 12 month horizon, unless otherwise specified. The investment ratings are on absolute positive/negative return basis. It is possible that due to volatile price fluctuation in the near to medium term, there could be a temporary mismatch to rating. For reasons of valuations/return/lack of clarity/event we may revisit rating at appropriate time. Please note that the stock always carries the risk of being upgraded to BUY or downgraded to a HOLD, REDUCE or SELL. Neutral- The analyst has no investment opinion on the stock under review. General Disclosures and Disclaimers CERTIFICATION I, Sreenish S R, author of this Report, hereby certify that all the views expressed in this research report reflect our personal views about any or all of the subject issuer or securities. This report has been prepared by the Research Team of Geojit Financial Services Limited, hereinafter referred to as Geojit. COMPANY OVERVIEW Geojit Financial Services Limited (hereinafter Geojit), a publically listed company, is engaged in services of retail broking, depository services, portfolio management and marketing investment products including mutual funds, insurance and properties. Geojit is a SEBI registered Research Entity and as such prepares and shares research data and reports periodically with clients, investors, stake holders and general public in compliance with Securities and Exchange Board of India Act, 1992, Securities And Exchange Board Of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014 and/or any other applicable directives, instructions or guidelines issued by the Regulators from time to time. DISTRIBUTION OF REPORTS This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Geojit will not treat the recipients of this report as clients by virtue of their receiving this report. GENERAL REPRESENTATION The research reports do not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instruments, inducements, promise, guarantee, warranty, or as an official confirmation of any transaction or contractual obligations of any kind. This report is provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. The information contained herein is from publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such. We have also reviewed the research report for any untrue statements of material facts or any false or misleading information. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. RISK DISCLOSURE Geojit and/or its Affiliates and its officers, directors and employees including the analyst/authors shall not be in any way be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Investors may lose his/her entire investment under certain market conditions so before acting on any advice or recommendation in these material, investors should consider whether it is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. This report does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation/circumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Each recipient of this report should make such investigation as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this report (including the merits and risks involved). The price, volume and income of the investments referred to in this report may fluctuate and investors may realize losses that may exceed their original capital. FUNDAMENTAL DISCLAIMER We have prepared this report based on information believed to be reliable. The recommendations herein are based on 12 month horizon, unless otherwise specified. The investment ratings are on absolute positive/negative return basis. It is possible that due to volatile price fluctuation in the near to medium term, there could be a temporary mismatch to rating. For reasons of valuations/return/lack of clarity/event we may revisit rating at appropriate time. The

5 stocks always carry the risk of being upgraded to buy or downgraded to a hold, reduce or sell. The opinions expressed are subject to change but we have no obligation to tell our clients when our opinions or recommendations change. This report is non-inclusive and does not consider all the information that the recipients may consider material to investments. This report is issued by Geojit without any liability/undertaking/commitment on the part of itself or any of its entities. We may have issued or may issue on the companies covered herein, reports, recommendations or information which is contrary to those contained in this report. The projections and forecasts described in this report should be evaluated keeping in mind the fact that these are based on estimates and assumptions and will vary from actual results over a period of time. The actual performance of the companies represented in the report may vary from those projected. These are not scientifically proven to guarantee certain intended results and hence, are not published as a warranty and do not carry any evidentiary value whatsoever. These are not to be relied on in or as contractual, legal or tax advice. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. JURISDICTION The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. The countries in which the companies mentioned in this report are organized may have restrictions on investments, voting rights or dealings in securities by nationals of other countries. Distributing/taking/sending/dispatching/transmitting this document in certain foreign jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe any such restrictions. Failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a violation of any foreign jurisdiction laws. Foreign currencies denominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or price of or income derived from the investment. Investors in securities such as ADRs, the value of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency risk. REGULATORY DISCLOSURES: Geojit s Associates consists of privately held companies such as Geojit Technologies Private Limited (GTPL- Software Solutions provider), Geojit Credits Private Limited (GCPL- NBFC Services provider), Geojit Investment Services Limited (GISL- Corporate Agent for Insurance products), Geojit Financial Management Services Private Limited (GFMSL) & Geojit Financial Distribution Private Limited (GFDPL), (Distributors of Insurance and MF Units).In the context of the SEBI Regulations on Research Analysts (2014), Geojit affirms that we are a SEBI registered Research Entity and in the course of our business as a stock market intermediary, we issue research reports /research analysis etc that are prepared by our Research Analysts. We also affirm and undertake that no disciplinary action has been taken against us or our Analysts in connection with our business activities. In compliance with the above mentioned SEBI Regulations, the following additional disclosures are also provided which may be considered by the reader before making an investment decision: 1. Disclosures regarding Ownership*: Geojit confirms that: (i) It/its associates have no financial interest or any other material conflict in relation to the subject company (ies) covered herein. (ii) It/its associates have no actual beneficial ownership greater than 1% in relation to the subject company (ies) covered herein. However, it is mentioned that one of our Directors, Mr. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala has over 1% stake in the subject company (iii) Further, the Analyst confirms that: (i) He/his associates / his relatives holds shares in the subject company/ has other financial interest in the subjected company. (ii) He, his associates and his relatives have no actual/beneficial ownership greater than 1% in the subject company covered. 2. Disclosures regarding Compensation: During the past 12 months, Geojit or its Associates: (a) Have not received any compensation from the subject company; (b) Have not managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company (c) Have not * received any compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company. (d) Have not received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company (e) Have not received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report (f) The subject company is / was not a client during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report. 3. Disclosure by Geojit regarding the compensation paid to its Research Analyst: Geojit hereby confirms that no part of the compensation paid to the persons employed by it as Research Analysts is based on any specific brokerage services or transactions pertaining to trading in securities of companies contained in the Research Reports. 4. Disclosure regarding the Research Analyst s connection with the subject company: It is affirmed that the I Sreenish S R Research Analyst(s) of Geojit have not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company 5. Disclosure regarding Market Making activity: Neither Geojit/its Analysts have engaged in market making activities for the subject company. Please ensure that you have read the Risk Disclosure Documents for Capital Market and Derivatives Segments as prescribed by the Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing. Geojit Financial Services Ltd. (formerly known as Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services Ltd.), Registered Office: 34/659-P, Civil Line Road, Padivattom, Kochi , Kerala, India. Phone: , Website: For investor queries: customercare@geojit.com, For grievances: grievances@geojit.com, For compliance officer: compliance@geojit.com. Corporate Identity Number: L67120KL1994PLC008403, SEBI Stock Broker Registration No INZ , Research Entity SEBI Reg No: INH , Investment Adviser SEBI Reg No: INA , Portfolio Manager: INP , Depository Participant: IN-DP , ARN Regn.Nos:0098, IRDA Corporate Agent (Composite) No.: CA0226

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