Equity Strategy. Reporting season update #1 Hold the line AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook. Macquarie s bottom-up market & sector EPS growth (%)
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- Ruth Collins
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1 AUSTRALIA Macquarie s bottom-up market & sector EPS growth (%) Pro-rated to June FY11A FY1E FY13E Consensus market & sector EPS growth (%) Earnings summary to date Jun HY1 Earnings/dividend surprises to date Source: IBES, Macquarie Research, August 1 Current 1 yr fwd All Companies Banks Property Trusts Resources Industrials (All Cos ex Res, LPTs, Banks) Pro-rated to June FY11A FY1E FY13E Current 1 yr fwd All Companies Banks Property Trusts Resources Industrials (All Cos ex Res, LPTs, Banks) F cast Actual Diff Diff $Am $Am $Am % 1 ex Res, LPTs, & Banks^ 1,7 9, Ex1 ex Res, LPTs, & Banks 1,99, Resources^^ 8,88 8, Banks** 3,594 3,594. Listed Property,56, All Aust stocks^ 6,95 6, NZ stocks^ (NZ$m) *Earnings are free-float adjusted. **For only those stocks reporting: BEN and CBA ^ Includes Telecom NZ Number Earnings Dividend reported + ve -ve + ve -ve 1 ex Res, LPTs, & Banks^ Ex1 ex Res, LPTs, & Banks 7 1 Resources Banks Listed Property 3 1 All Aust stocks^ NZ stocks^ * Earnings surprise: adjusted net profit > 5% from forecast at 19 Jul 1 * Dividend surprise: > 5% from forecast (forecasts as at 19 Jul 1) ^ Includes Telecom NZ Reporting season update #1 Hold the line Event We analyse profit results for the JunHY1 reporting season to date. 4 companies have reported thus far in the August corporate reporting season (as at COB 9 Aug), representing only 11% of companies to report by number and 13% by market capitalisation. Impact Macquarie s aggregated All Companies FY1 EPSg (Jun pro-rated) forecast remains largely unchanged at -3.5% at the end of the first full week of reporting season. With FY13E firmly in focus, we note that FY13E EPSg currently sits at +8.% (-.8ppts from our estimate at 19-Jul). The downgrade momentum continues at the Market and sector level as highlighted by our weak revisions ratio, which remains firmly below 1.x at week s close (.8x). Outlook In context of the rapid and heavy downgrades seen across the Market (and for all major sectors except LPTs) in the prelude to reporting season, the delivery of weak aggregated FY1 EPSg forecasts will likely be positively received by investors. We note however the clear distinction between stocks that have outperformed during this first week of reporting season and those that have underperformed following their results. Stocks that delivered high-quality results to (or above) their EPSg expectations including RMD, CPU and BKN have been rewarded by investors through share price performance. There were also a number of stocks that delivered to headline results however disappointed either on quality and/or outlook including: TCL, TLS, TAH and SGP. These stocks have all delivered large relative performance to the market over the last 1 months and as a result, the disappointment to their perceived stable EPSg outlook has not gone unnoticed by investors. This puts earnings certainty stocks such as AGK, TWE, WOW, CCL and stocks seen to offer defensive yield such as SKI, APA, SYD, DUE, CFX, WBC, CBA, NAB, ANZ and WDC in the spotlight. These stocks have also outperformed the market considerably over the last 1 months and will be under pressure to deliver income certainty. Further, with the majority of stocks still to report their JunHY1 results over the next few weeks, we still believe there are further downside risks to FY1E (and FY13E) EPSg estimates. 1 August 1 Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited Please refer to the important disclosures and analyst certification on inside back cover of this document, or on our website
2 <1= Net downgrades >1= Net upgrades <1= Net downgrades >1= Net upgrades <1= Net downgrades >1= Net upgrades <1= Net downgrades >1= Net upgrades Macquarie Private Wealth FY1 EPSg forecasts largely unchanged and too early for FY13 revision At the end of the first full week of reporting season, however, FY1E EPSg forecasts remain relatively stable across all major sectors of the Market. In the context of the rapid and heavy downgrades seen across the Market (and for all major sectors except LPTs) in the prelude to reporting season, the delivery of already-weak FY1 EPSg forecasts will likely be positively received by investors. We note that the risk of FY1E EPSg downgrades remains, with the majority of companies still to report their JunHY1 results over the coming weeks. The LPTs remain the prominent sector, expecting delivery of modest earnings growth this year (+4.%). This sector has enjoyed stable EPSg forecasts across FY1E, in stark contrast to other major Market sectors. Only three stocks in this sector have reported to date, namely ALZ, LEP and SGP and despite the disappointing result from SGP, the sector is still holding its ground with FY1E EPSg expectations at +4.%. FY1E EPSg for the Industrials sector is unchanged at +1.6% while FY13E EPSg forecasts have been revised slightly lower to +11.7% (from +13.%). It is no surprise that stocks such as RMD, CPU and BKN, delivering high-quality results to (or above) EPSg expectations are being rewarded by investors. The stocks that have delivered to FY1E headline results, however, disappointed either on quality and/or outlook and thus have downgraded their FY13E (and subsequent years ) EPSg outlook include TCL, COH, TLS, TAH and SGP. In our view, the balance of EPSg risk for this sector remains to the downside. The FY1 EPSg forecast for the Resources sector currently stands at -15.3%. RIO has been the only large cap Resource company to report JunHY1 results, which exceeded MRE expectations. The positive surprise was assisted by a lower-than-expected tax rate. Fig 1 Industrials FY1 EPSg holds steady after the first week at +1.6% however FY13E EPSg has slipped Forecast EPS growth for year shown (%) 5 Profile of EPSg forecasts (LHS) FY3 FY4 FY5 Industrials (mkt ex res, LPT's & banks) EPSg FY6 FY7 FY8 Weekly reporting season update FY1 FY9 FY1 FY11 Profile of FY1 earnings revisions -15 (RHS). Jan-3 Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-1 Sep-1 Monthly Fig 3 CBA and BEN have yet to report their JunHY1 results. Sector exp to deliver +.9% (Jun pro-rated) Forecast EPS growth for year shown (%) 35 Profile of EPS growth forecasts (LHS) FY3 FY6 FY5 FY4 Banks sector EPSg FY7 FY8 FY1 Weekly reporting season update FY11 FY13 Source (for all above): IBES, Macquarie Research, August 1 Earnings revisions FY1 (x) FY13 FY FY9 - Profile of FY1 earnings revisions -5. Jan-3 Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Monthly Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-1 Sep Earnings revisions FY1 (x) Fig Resources FY1 EPSg currently stands at a weak -15.3%... Forecast EPS growth for year shown (%) 8 Profile of eps growth 7 forecasts (LHS) FY FY3-1 FY4 FY6 Resources EPSg FY7 FY8 Weekly reporting season update FY1 FY11 FY1 Earnings revisions FY1 (x) FY13 - Profile of FY1 earnings revisions (RHS) FY9-3. Jan-3 Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-1 Sep-1 Monthly Fig 4 LPTs FY1 EPSg remains stable at +4.%, the clear standout of the major sectors Forecast EPS growth for year shown (%) 3 Profile of eps growth 5 forecasts (LHS) 15 1 FY3 FY4 5 FY5 FY6 LPTs EPSg profile FY7 FY8 Weekly reporting season update FY1 FY FY FY Profile of FY1 earnings revisions FY1-3 (RHS). Jan-3 Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-1 Sep-1 Monthly Earnings revisions FY1 (x) August 1
3 Macquarie Private Wealth Industrials sector stand their ground with FY1E EPSg still at +1.6% Industrials sector FY1 EPSg remains steady over the start of the reporting season. The positive results from RMD, CPU, NWS and BKN have been offset from downgrades to TAH, TLS, COH and NVT, leaving the overall sector FY1E EPSg forecast steady at +1.6% and unchanged from pre-reporting season forecasts. We note, however, that this is in context with the significant downgrades seen over the course of FY1 and we are still very early into the reporting season with risks remaining to the downside. The FY1E Industrials EPSg downgrade trend has followed a similar if not an almost identical trend in both the magnitude and drivers of the downgrade to the sector s FY11 EPSg forecast. Again the downgrades to the Industrials EPSg have been driven by the large swing in the EBITDAg forecast just as they were in FY11. So again the critical questions for investors for the remainder of this reporting season are Will the EBITDA margin currently forecast be delivered in tact? Or is there still downside risk to FY1 EBITDA margin forecast in this reporting season? And Just as we saw years and 1 year ago, should investors question the FY13 EPSg forecast given that again the forecast is entirely contingent on significant EBITDA margin recovery? Further, Industrials have remained optimistic throughout the year about EPSg bouncing back to +11.7% in FY13, despite much lower growth than initially anticipated in FY1 and the ongoing pressure on EBITDA margins. FY13E EPSg forecasts have slipped marginally (from +13.8%) in our view this still remains optimistic. Fig 5 Industrials EPSg remaining steady as week 1 of reporting season concludes Fig 6 there is a long tail of stocks expecting an optimistic EPSg rebound into FY13. % Industrials FY1(E) EPSg forecast % Industrials FY1(E) EPSg forecast ppts 14 ppts 14 TOL AIO NWS BKN COH TAH HVN DUE 1.6% TLS Others 1.6% 1 1 CPUCWN MAH ORI BBG CPB CSL DUE EGP TTS WOW WES BLD AMP SUN QAN TAH Others 1 1 LEI ve Contributors -ive Contributors 1 6 QBE Positive Contributors Negative Contributors Jul-1 1-Aug-1 Source (for all above): IBES, Macquarie Research, August 1 FY1(E) EPSg -1.9% FY13(E) EPSg 11.7% 1 August 1 3
4 Macquarie Private Wealth LPTs the sector expected to deliver greatest EPSg (+4.%) in FY1E The forecast FY1 EPSg for the sector has nudged down to +4.%, however, it remains to deliver the greatest EPSg of the Market sectors this year despite a disappointing result from SGP. The LPT sector remains the only sector that has not seen their FY1 forecast of positive, midsingle-digit EPSg downgraded over this year. The broad spread of companies in the sector to have also held or upgraded their FY1 EPSg forecast is also a standout positive. A continuation of this EPSg stability again this reporting season will only serve to support further outperformance of the sector the boarder market. If indeed the LPT sector continues the neutral to positive earnings revision trend seen over the last year into this reporting season, there is little doubt that the sector should continue to significantly outperform the overall market. As a double-edged sword, however, given the valuation uplift that has accompanied this EPSg performance, any disappointment or downgrades would equally be critical to the sector s performance. All indications suggest, however, that broad earnings disappointment or downgrades in the sector EPSg this reporting season are unlikely. Fig 7 LPTs FY1E EPSg remaining steady as reporting season commences Fig 8 however WDC asset sales are expected to impact the growth of the sector in FY13 % LPTs FY1(E) EPSg forecast % 4.5 LEP CFX APZ SGP % LPTs FY1(E) EPSg forecast 5. 4% 4.5 Others ppts contribution 6 5 SGP 4. 4 CHC IOF GOZ LEP ABP DXS CRF CPA GMG GPT ppts contribution 6 5 Others* Positive Contributors Negative Contributors 3. Positive Contributors Negative Contributors Jul-1 9-Aug-1 Source (for all above): IBES, Macquarie Research, August 1. FY1(E) EPSg 4.% FY13(E) EPSg.4% 1 August 1 4
5 Macquarie Private Wealth 1 August 1 5 Fig 9 Tracking the changes to Macquarie s market and sector P&L & EPSg aggregate forecasts across this reporting season Half year to June 1 (E) (%chg vs. pcp) Full year to June 1 (E) (%chg vs. pcp) Full year to June 13 (E) (%chg vs. pcp) Date of forecast: 19 Jul 1-Aug 17-Aug 4-Aug 31-Aug 19 Jul 1-Aug 17-Aug 4-Aug 31-Aug 19 Jul 1-Aug 17-Aug 4-Aug 31-Aug All companies (ex infrastructure)** Total revenue growth EBITDA consolidated growth EBITDA margin Net interest expense growth Tax consolidated growth Adjusted NPAT growth Adjusted EPS growth Growth in Total Dividends Payout ratio Industrials (market ex resources, banks, LPTs & infrastructure) Total revenue growth EBITDA consolidated growth EBITDA margin Net interest expense growth Tax consolidated growth Adjusted NPAT growth Adjusted EPS growth Growth in Total Dividends Payout ratio Resources** Total revenue growth EBITDA consolidated growth EBITDA margin Net interest expense growth Tax consolidated growth Adjusted NPAT growth Adjusted EPS growth Growth in Total Dividends Payout ratio LPTs Total revenue growth EBITDA consolidated growth EBITDA margin Net interest expense growth Tax consolidated growth nmf nmf nmf nmf Adjusted NPAT growth Adjusted EPS growth Growth in Total Dividends Payout ratio Banks* Half year to Sep 11 (E) Full year to Sep 11 (E) Full year to Sep 1 (E) Total revenue growth EBITDA consolidated growth EBITDA margin Tax consolidated growth Adjusted NPAT growth Adjusted EPS growth Growth in Total Dividends Payout ratio Source: Company Data, Macquarie Research, August 1
6 Macquarie Private Wealth 1 August 1 6 The good The disappointing The interesting RMD reported FY1 results firmly above consensus and MRE expectations. The high quality result was a combination of broad-based revenue growth acceleration, margin expansion and strong cash generation. Further, management provided strong FY13 guidance, which helped drive the +9.3% (or +1.4ppts outperformance to the broader market on the results announcement). MRE remains concerned about competitive bidding which has the potential to stall EPSg for 3yrs from FY14. CPU reported H1/FY1 EPSg of 9.4% & 11.8%, respectively reflecting still difficult market conditions. FY1 EPSg however was above consensus and MRE EPSg expectations (-15.6% and -13.%, respectively). MRE s expectation for +17.9% FY13E EPSg is ahead of company s financial target of 1-15% EPSg with 1% of growth expected to be driven by synergies. The market responded favourably to the result outperforming the broader market by +5.5ppts. The company also expected a $1.8m increase to overall $74.3m synergy target, even after having delivered $9.3m synergies in H1, $6.8m ahead of target. BKN delivered a very strong FY1 adj. NPAT result ($17m) +1.% ahead of MRE forecasts, with strong revenue contributions from key Mining and Rail divisions. Cash conversion was notable, increasing from 47.6% (FY11A) to 93.1% (FY1A) due to very strong H1 (14.8%). The result was well-received by the market, outperforming by +1.8ppts on result day. RIO reported solid operational performance with the earnings down 34% y/y due largely to falling commodity prices. Net income of U$5.bn was 4.5% ahead of MRE and consensus driven by a lower than expected tax rate (4% versus our forecast of 7% on an all-in basis). The dividend of 7.5c was in-line with forecasts representing an underlying payout ratio of 6% versus 18% in 11 with debt increasing to fund sanctioned expansions and with cash flow hit with a low iron ore price assumption, by 14 RIO appears to be sailing close to the wind on the funding front. As a result, growing capital constraints mean that RIO is seemingly restricting investment outside the relatively higher-returning Pilbara expansions and so is deferring capital to Aluminium and Thermal Coal (among other divisions). The stock price was -.3% on the day. LEI delivered a return to profit of $114.6m adj. NPAT in 1H1 (from -$65.5m in the pcp). This was marginally (+.6%) ahead of MRE pre-reporting season expectations, assisted by a low tax rate from R&D concessions and Airport Link/ VDP losses and a $1m gain on sale. Cash flow performance was extremely weak in 1H1 (-$43m operating cash flow, -8% cash conversion) due to timing of cash payments. Gearing was also much higher than expected at 9% (1H1 vs. 57% at FY11 end; this is based on (adj. net debt + op leases)/equity). The stock sold off -1.5% on the day. SGP FY1 underlying NPAT of $676.1m and EPS of 9.3cps (down ~7% on pcp) was in line with MRE forecast. Management guidance implies a potential fall in earnings of >5% (F1 v F13). MRE revised EPS down FY13-5.7%, FY14-4.8%, FY15 -.%. The outlook for SGP remains challenging as depressed residential margins are supplemented with a downgraded retirement development pipeline and a commercial property portfolio that is still undergoing a significant transition. SGP s resi operating profit margin collapsed from.9% in 1H1 to 16.6% in H1. Nearterm retirement unit sales have been revised from ~45 to ~3 in line with MRE projections. The share price was -3.8% on the results, underperforming -4.9% relative to the market. TAH FY1 operational result was positive across all continuing businesses (revenue $3,38.5m, up +3.3% (H1 +3.8%), EBITDA $75.m, up +5.6% (H1 +5.1%). However, the market and MRE were disappointed by the $17.3m of corporate and IT costs that the company will continue to bear following the expiry of the Vic gaming business on 16 Aug. This is expected to drive FY13 consensus EPS downgrades in the order of 5-1%. Share price fell -3.% on the day. NVT $73.1m FY1 NPAT was largely in line with MRE expectations ($73.9m) but disappointed consensus (stock price fell -6.5% on the day of announcement, -7.1ppts relative to the market). Global student enrolments remain weak across the University Program (UP), particularly in Australia, where new commencements for the July semester were not enough to offset an overall negative result of -1%. Management have pushed out expectations of +ve enrolment trend by more than 6m to March 13. MRE revised FY13 EPS down -3.5%. While TCL FY1 headline result ($9.5m FY1 NPAT) was in line with MRE expectations (+.9%), the expected delay of the M opening was disappointing, in our view, given the slower ramp-up to FY13E and FY14E dividends. In an environment where yield is being rewarded, the market was disappointed with this reflected in the stock s -4ppts underperformance. Weak cost performance from roads Citylink, M and M1 in the H1 has driven lower margins across the Group. Management also lowered the growth outlook of FY13. COH reported FY1 adj. NPAT of $158.1m (vs. reported NPAT of $56.8m impacted by $11.3m post-tax recall provision). While this was in line with MRE (-1.8%) and market expectations, the result was assisted by $74.4m FX hedging gains and meaning that nonrecurring FX profits now make up 36% of EBIT. COH market share losses have been kept to 5-6%, while failure rate continues to fall (July failures have dropped to 1/3 that of peak in October 11). Impressive was gross margin expansion of 4bps to 71.%, which continues the long history of underlying gross margin expansion previously clouded by currency movements. Despite this, share price fell -5.1% (-5.6ppts relative performance). NWS 4Q1 result solid, FY13 guidance flat to slightly down on consensus due to investments in education and Star. The company reported 4Q1 adjusted operating EBIT of $1.4 billion, a decrease of 8% relative to the pcp (MRE: $1.8b, Cons: $1.7b). By segment, weakness in earnings from film (- 43%) and publishing (-48%) more than offset the gains seen in the cable networks (+6%). Television came in below our expectations for the quarter, with earnings down 9% for the quarter on revenues down 3% due to ratings weakness at American Idol. A full year dividend of 8.5 cents per share was declared in line with expectations. TLS FY1 adj. NPAT of $3,535m was in line with MRE expectations (-.6%). Operationally the result was mixed with Mobile, NAS and NBN offsetting weakness in PSTN and Sensis. NBN payments expected to drive EBITDAg for FY13E. Capex to sales guidance was set at 15%, up from 14% with the extra spend to accommodate the anticipated mobile growth. MRE has downgraded FY13-FY15 EPS by 5.1%, 3.5% and 4.%.
7 Macquarie Private Wealth Fig 1 Adjusted profit results this reporting season to date: forecasts vs. actuals Code Company Name 1H1/ H1 Curr. Rep Net Profit Adj. Net Profit Diff (Adj. NPAT) Surprise^ Dividend Surprise ($m) ($m) Forecast Actual Forecast Actual $ (%) +ve -ve Forecast Actual +ve -ve ASX/S&P 1 ex Property ex Resources COH Cochlear H1 AUD CPU Computershare H1 USD LEI Leighton Holdings 1H1 AUD NWS News Corporation H1 USD RMD Resmed H1 USD TAH TABCorp Holdings H1 AUD TCL Transurban City Link H1 AUD TLS Telstra Corporation H1 AUD ASX/S&P ex 1 ex Property ex Resources BKN Bradken H1 AUD FXL FlexiGroup H1 AUD GUD GUD Holdings H1 AUD HTA Hutchison Telecomm. 1H1 AUD NVT Navitas H1 AUD RKN Reckon 1H1 AUD SGN STW Communications Grp 1H1 AUD Resources ERA Energy Resources of Aust. 1H1 AUD OGC OceanaGold Corporation 1H1 USD RES Resource Generation H1 AUD nmf 1.. RIO Rio Tinto 1H1 USD Listed Property Trusts ALZ Australand Holdings 1H1 AUD LEP ALE Property Group H1 AUD SGP Stockland H1 AUD NB Excludes AUT and AQP ^ Surprise is defined as a result +>5% or -<5% compared to MRE s pre-reporting season expectations as at 19-Jul-1 Source: Company Data, Macquarie Research, August 1 1 August 1 7
8 Macquarie Private Wealth Important disclosures: Recommendation definitions Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 1 month forward market dividend yield Macquarie Asia/Europe Outperform expected return >+1% Neutral expected return from -1% to +1% Underperform expected return <-1% Macquarie First South - South Africa Outperform expected return >+1% Neutral expected return from -1% to +1% Underperform expected return <-1% Macquarie - Canada Outperform return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform return >5% below benchmark return Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) return >5% in excess of Russell 3 index return Neutral (Hold) return within 5% of Russell 3 index return Underperform (Sell) return >5% below Russell 3 index return Volatility index definition* This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high highest risk Stock should be expected to move up or down 6 1% in a year investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High stock should be expected to move up or down at least 4 6% in a year investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 3 4% in a year. Low medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 5 3% in a year. Low stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15 5% in a year. * Applicable to Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only Recommendations 1 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations Financial definitions All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards). Recommendation proportions For quarter ending 3 June 1 AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform 55.67% 61.% 53.43% 4.58% 69.3% 46.6% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 9.5% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Neutral 3.5%.11% 36.99% 5.41% 8.% 33.69% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 8.14% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Underperform 13.83% 16.89% 9.59% 5.1%.75% 19.71% (for US coverage by MCUSA,.45% of stocks covered are investment banking clients) Company Specific Disclosures: Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at Analyst Certification: The views expressed in this research reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst principally responsible for the preparation of this research receives compensation based on overall revenues of Macquarie Group Ltd (ABN , AFSL No. 3186) ( MGL ) and its related entities (the Macquarie Group ) and has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. General Disclosure: This research has been issued by Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited (ABN , AFSL No ) a Participant of the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) and Chi-X Australia Pty Limited. This research is distributed in Australia by Macquarie Equities Limited (ABN , AFSL No. 3754) ("MEL"), a Participant of the ASX, and in New Zealand by Macquarie Equities New Zealand Limited ( MENZ ) an NZX Firm. Macquarie Private Wealth s services in New Zealand are provided by MENZ. Macquarie Bank Limited (ABN , AFSL No. 375) ( MBL ) is a company incorporated in Australia and authorised under the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) to conduct banking business in Australia. None of MBL, MGL or MENZ is registered as a bank in New Zealand by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand under the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act Any MGL subsidiary noted in this research, apart from MBL, is not an authorised deposit-taking institution for the purposes of the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) and that subsidiary s obligations do not represent deposits or other liabilities of MBL. MBL does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of that subsidiary, unless noted otherwise. This research is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice, you should consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision. This research has been prepared for the use of the clients of the Macquarie Group and must not be copied, either in whole or in part, or distributed to any other person. If you are not the intended recipient, you must not use or disclose this research in any way. If you received it in error, please tell us immediately by return and delete the document. We do not guarantee the integrity of any s or attached files and are not responsible for any changes made to them by any other person. Nothing in this research shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any transaction. This research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Macquarie Group does not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, complete or up to date. We accept no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in it. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. The Macquarie Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of this research and/or further communication in relation to this research. The Macquarie Group produces a variety of research products, recommendations contained in one type of research product may differ from recommendations contained in other types of research. The Macquarie Group has established and implemented a conflicts policy at group level, which may be revised and updated from time to time, pursuant to regulatory requirements; which sets out how we must seek to identify and manage all material conflicts of interest. The Macquarie Group, its officers and employees may have conflicting roles in the financial products referred to in this research and, as such, may effect transactions which are not consistent with the recommendations (if any) in this research. The Macquarie Group may receive fees, brokerage or commissions for acting in those capacities and the reader should assume that this is the case. The Macquarie Group s employees or officers may provide oral or written opinions to its clients which are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at 1 August 1 8
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AUSTRALIA MRE vs Consensus MQG FY15 Consensus FY15 Date Profit EPS DPS Profit EPS DPS BEN 10-Aug 439 92 67 434 92 67 CBA 12-Aug 9,289 557 420 9,116 554 419 Source: Factset, Macquarie Research, August 2015
More informationAMP. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at CLOSE#, 19 Mar 213) Underperform A$5.7 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 4.99 12-month TSR % +3.6 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 4.68 GICS sector Insurance Market cap A$m 14,855
More informationCardno. Tough half over A$2.88 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CDD AU Price (at 04:53, 17 Feb 2015 GMT) Neutral A$2.88 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 2.80-3.43 12-month target A$ 3.12 12-month TSR % +18.4 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Capital Goods Market
More informationBoart Longyear. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA BLY AU Price (at 08:01, 12 Sep 2013 GMT) Neutral A$0.50 Valuation A$ 0.71 - DCF (WACC 10.1%, beta 1.5, ERP 0.1%, RFR 0.1%, TGR 0.0%) 12-month target A$ 0.56 12-month TSR % +12.0 Volatility Index
More informationNIB Holdings. Lowest in 4 years still enough A$3.72 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA NHF AU Price (at 09:52, 02 Mar 2016 GMT) Outperform A$3.72 Valuation A$ 3.85 - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.5%) 12-month target A$ 4.00 12-month TSR % +11.7 Volatility
More informationSG Fleet Group % growth in FY17. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: Results and contract wins.
AUSTRALIA SGF AU Price (at 07:57, 27 Oct 2016 GMT) Outperform A$3.85 Valuation - PER A$ 3.92-4.18 12-month target A$ 4.37 12-month TSR % +18.1 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationAustralian Mobile Market
AUSTRALIA Telstra data inclusions on key post-paid plans $130 $130 $95 $70 $55 Optus data inclusions on key post-paid plans "Everyday Connect" "Mobile Accelerate" $50 $40 Vodafone data inclusions on key
More informationEclipx Group. Highlights its funding flexibility A$3.77 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA ECX AU Price (at 02:49, 15 Dec 2016 GMT) Outperform A$3.77 Valuation - PER A$ 3.53-3.78 12-month target A$ 4.22 12-month TSR % +16.3 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Diversified Financials
More informationAuckland International Airport
NEW ZEALAND AIA NZ Price (at 04:00, 27 Nov 2013 GMT) Neutral NZ$3.42 Valuation NZ$ 3.37 - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.3%, TGR 3.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 3.37 12-month TSR % +2.6 Volatility
More informationVista Group International
NEW ZEALAND VGL NZ Price (at 03:15, 26 Feb 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$4.35 Valuation NZ$ 4.31 - DCF (WACC 9.9%, beta 1.0, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.0%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 4.75 12-month TSR % +9.5 Volatility
More informationWhitehaven Coal. China outlook drives impairments A$1.04 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA WHC AU Price (at 06:10, 13 Aug 2015 GMT) Neutral A$1.04 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 1.18 12-month target A$ 1.15 12-month TSR % +10.6 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationSims Metal Management
AUSTRALIA SGM AU Price (at 5:11, 17 Nov 215 GMT) Outperform A$7.19 Valuation - EV/EBIT A$ 8.49-9.6 12-month target A$ 8.9 12-month TSR % +26.6 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m
More informationGeneration Healthcare REIT
AUSTRALIA GHC AU Price (at 06:13, 24 Aug 2015 GMT) Neutral A$1.65 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 1.51-1.59 12-month target A$ 1.59 12-month TSR % +1.8 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Real Estate Market cap
More informationSingTel. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation. Maintain Outperform.
AUSTRALIA SGT AU Price (at 05:10, 06 Dec 2012 GMT) Outperform A$2.59 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 2.81 12-month TSR % +14.6 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 2.81 GICS sector Telecommunication Services
More informationEarnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: 1H14 result in February Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CBA AU Price (at 06:10, 10 Sep 2013 GMT) Neutral A$73.63 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 10.3%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.5%) 50.40 12-month target A$ 66.15 12-month TSR % -5.0 Volatility Index Low
More informationNational Australia Bank
AUSTRALIA NAB AU Price (at 06:10, 27 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform A$33.91 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.6%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.8%) 37.74 12-month target A$ 39.39 12-month TSR % +22.1 Volatility Index Low
More informationFisher & Paykel Healthcare
NEW ZEALAND FPH NZ Price (at 05:00, 10 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$7.03 Valuation NZ$ 7.39 - DCF (WACC 8.8%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 7.80 12-month TSR % +13.1 Volatility
More informationBuilders Barometer. Rising damp AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook
Jan 00 Mar 01 May 02 Jul 03 Sep 04 Nov 05 Jan 07 Mar 08 May 09 Jul 10 Sep 11 Nov 12 Jan 14 Mar 15 May 16 AUSTRALIA Rising damp Event The ABS released February 2017 building approvals data. Seasonallyadjusted,
More informationUGL. Driving growth in DTZ. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at 08:17, 03 Sep 2012 GMT) Underperform A$10.52 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 11.08 12-month TSR % +12.0 Valuation A$ - DCF (beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 6.0%, TGR 2.5%) 15.09
More informationNational Australia Bank
AUSTRALIA NAB AU Price (at 08:23, 03 Jul 2012 GMT) Outperform A$23.68 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 27.66 12-month TSR % +24.9 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.6%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.8%) 25.14
More informationSilver Chef. Capital raising A$7.71 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SIV AU Price (at 08:50, 21 Mar 2017 GMT) Neutral A$7.71 Valuation - PER A$ 6.68 12-month target A$ 6.68 12-month TSR % -7.4 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Capital Goods Market cap A$m 278
More informationAust. General Insurance
AUSTRALIA June 2016 3 mth rolling market results Personal Commercial Market Average Rate Growth -3. -3.6% -3.3% GWP Growth 1.8% -0.8% 0.9% Volume Growth 2.8% 0.8% 2.1% Est. Exposure Value Growth 2. 2.
More informationAutomotive Holdings Group
AUSTRALIA AHG AU Price (at 06:14, 11 Aug 2016 GMT) Outperform A$4.61 Valuation - EV/EBITA A$ 4.09-4.63 12-month target A$ 4.36 12-month TSR % -0.2 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Retailing Market cap
More informationUS Economics. State of the Union Growth, rates, and equities NORTH AMERICA. In a nutshell. Our key views on growth, policy, and rates
NORTH AMERICA In a nutshell The US expansion is poised to continue Near-term data may surprise on the upside and show an economy expanding at an underlying 2.5% pace Longer-term growth should decelerate
More informationRamsay Health Care. France begins to bite A$66.37 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA RHC AU Price (at 06:11, 06 Aug 2015 GMT) Neutral A$66.37 Valuation A$ 64.54 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 3.0%) 12-month target A$ 70.00 12-month TSR % +7.3 Volatility Index
More informationCoca-Cola Amatil. Not as fizzy as it looks A$8.78 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA CCL AU Price (at CLOSE#, 21 Aug 2015) Underperform A$8.78 Valuation A$ 8.47 - DCF (WACC 8.7%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 1.9%) 12-month target A$ 8.99 12-month TSR % +7.3 Volatility Index
More informationSeek. Progresses Zhaopin privatisation A$16.33 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SEK AU Price (at 06:33, 07 Apr 2017 GMT) Outperform A$16.33 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 16.77 12-month target A$ 16.50 12-month TSR % +3.9 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Commercial &
More informationTelstra Corporation. Vodafone better, but far from good A$6.43 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA TLS AU Price (at 11:23, 21 Jul 2015 GMT) Neutral A$6.43 Valuation A$ 6.37 - DCF (WACC 6.8%, beta 0.8, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 1.2%) 12-month target A$ 6.30 12-month TSR % +3.3 Volatility Index
More informationBendigo and Adelaide Bank
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at 06:17, 30 Mar 2017 GMT) Underperform A$12.03 Valuation A$ 11.48- - Sum of Parts/GG 11.71 12-month target A$ 11.50 12-month TSR % +1.2 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Banks
More informationMeridian Energy. On tax depreciation NZ$2.08 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
NEW ZEALAND MEL NZ Price (at 05:00, 13 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$2.08 Valuation NZ$ 2.50 - DCF (WACC 7.8%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.6%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 2.60 12-month TSR % +31.7 Volatility
More informationNuplex Industries. Should benefit from a weak Kiwi NZ$4.55 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
NEW ZEALAND NPX NZ Price (at 05:00, 31 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$4.55 Valuation NZ$ 4.40 - DCF (WACC 12.5%, beta 1.4, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 4.75 12-month TSR % +10.6 Volatility
More informationOil Search. Proving up PNG A$7.11 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA OSH AU Price (at 05:10, 16 Feb 2017 GMT) Outperform A$7.11 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 6.70 12-month target A$ 7.60 12-month TSR % +8.2 Volatility Index Medium
More informationCochlear. Roberts replaced A$88.66 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA COH AU Price (at 06:47, 26 May 2015 GMT) Outperform A$88.66 Valuation A$ 81.19 - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 3.0%) 12-month target A$ 95.00 12-month TSR % +9.8 Volatility
More informationFisher & Paykel Healthcare
NEW ZEALAND FPH NZ Price (at 03:59, 16 Mar 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$6.63 Valuation NZ$ 6.86 - DCF (WACC 8.8%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 7.25 12-month TSR % +11.6 Volatility
More informationFund Managers. Aust. Fund managers review & rank AUSTRALIA. Event. Stock Views
AUSTRALIA 4 February 2016 Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited Aust. Fund managers review & rank Event We review and rank the listed Australian under Macquarie Securities coverage, assessing fund performance,
More informationKingsgate Consolidated
AUSTRALIA KCN AU Price (at 6:11, 31 Jul 215 GMT) Underperform A$.67 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%).3 12-month target A$.3 12-month TSR % -54.9 Volatility Index Very High GICS
More informationTatts Group. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation. Maintain Underperform on valuation grounds.
AUSTRALIA TTS AU Price (at 8:37, 23 Aug 212 GMT) Underperform A$2.79 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 2.45 12-month TSR % -6.8 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 2.4-2.47 GICS sector Consumer Services
More informationTox Free Solutions. Winning work again A$2.34 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA TOX AU Price (at 05:10, 30 Nov 2016 GMT) Outperform A$2.34 Valuation - EV/EBITDA A$ 2.52-3.07 12-month target A$ 2.79 12-month TSR % +23.1 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationBendigo and Adelaide Bank
AUSTRALIA BEN AU Price (at CLOSE#, 17 Aug 2012) Neutral A$8.69 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 9.28 12-month TSR % +14.0 Valuation - DCF (WACC 12.1%) A$ 8.28 GICS sector Banks Market cap A$m 3,447
More informationGenworth Mortgage Insurance Australia
AUSTRALIA GMA AU Price (at 07:29, 05 Aug 2015 GMT) Outperform A$3.50 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.0%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.0%, RFR 4.5%) 3.52 12-month target A$ 3.47 12-month TSR % +9.2 Volatility Index Medium
More informationSirtex Medical. Healthy dose sales. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: FY16 result on the 24th of August
AUSTRALIA SRX AU Price (at CLOSE#, 11 Jul 2016) Outperform A$27.88 Valuation A$ 37.93 - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 1.5%) 12-month target A$ 38.00 12-month TSR % +37.4 Volatility
More informationSenex Energy Production and revenue unsurprised, cash builds on lower capex
26 April 2018 Australia EQUITIES SXY AU Price (at 06:10, 26 Apr 2018 GMT) Outperform A$0.42 Valuation A$ 0.49 - DCF (WACC 9.1%, beta 1.5, ERP 4.0%, RFR 4.3%) 12-month target A$ 0.50 12-month TSR % +19.0
More informationANZ Bank. The Dis-Associates. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Catalyst: 3Q15 Trading Update. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ANZ AU Price (at 07:51, 03 Jul 2015 GMT) Underperform A$32.46 Valuation - DDM/PE A$ 32.52 12-month target A$ 33.91 12-month TSR % +10.0 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Banks Market cap A$m 89,752
More informationSpotless Group Holdings
AUSTRALIA SPO AU Price (at 05:45, 31 Jan 2017 GMT) Neutral A$0.94 Valuation - Peer multiples A$ 1.02 12-month target A$ 1.02 12-month TSR % +18.3 Volatility Index High GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationAustralian Banks. If it s too good to be true AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook. Impact of repricing and capital from additional 10% investor RWA
CBA CBA CBA CBA AUSTRALIA Changes to lending rates (bps) bps Owner Occupier Investor P&I IO P&I IO 0 20 25 36 CBA 3 25 24 26 7 7 25 25 3 8 23 28 BEN 0 0 25 25 Source: Company data, Macquarie research,
More informationOz Minerals. Solid start to the year A$5.62 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA OZL AU Price (at 6:24, 21 Apr 216 GMT) Underperform A$5.62 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 1%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 4.61 12-month target A$ 4.6 12-month TSR % -15.5 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationOz Minerals. On track to meet guidance A$6.51 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA OZL AU Price (at 08:20, 22 Jul 2016 GMT) Underperform A$6.51 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 4.31 12-month target A$ 5.00 12-month TSR % -21.4 Volatility Index High
More informationOrocobre. Upside exposure fading. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: Update on projects or Q1 report
AUSTRALIA ORE AU Price (at 5:11, 28 Feb 217 GMT) Neutral A$3.8 Valuation - DCF (WACC 1.%) A$ 1.34 12-month target A$ 3.17 12-month TSR % +2.9 Volatility Index High GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m
More informationAventus Retail Property Fund
AUSTRALIA AVN AU Price (at 06:10, 29 Apr 2016 GMT) A$2.16 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Real Estate Market cap A$m 741 30-day avg turnover A$m 0.7 Number shares on issue m 343.2 Investment fundamentals
More informationBillabong International
AUSTRALIA BBG AU Price (at 06:10, 27 Aug 2012 GMT) A$1.35 Volatility index Very High GICS sector Consumer Durables & Apparel Market cap A$m 644 30-day avg turnover A$m 4.4 Number shares on issue m 478.9
More informationWeekly Market Action Thursday 9 June 2011 to Thursday 16 June 2011
Weekly Market Action Thursday 9 June 2011 to Thursday 16 June 2011 The Australian market fell 1.6% in the week to Thursday based on the S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index. The small companies underperformed
More informationOrigin Energy. 4Q Production. ORG reported its 4 th quarter production report, following on ConocoPhilips quarterly result.
AUSTRALIA ORG AU Price (at 06:11, 30 Jul 2015 GMT) Neutral A$11.35 Valuation A$ 12.79 - DCF (WACC 10.3%, beta 1.3, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ 12.89 12-month TSR % +18.1 Volatility
More informationNEW ZEALAND Price Valuation NZ$ 1.74 Event 12-month target NZ$ month TSR % -10.1
NEW ZEALAND GNE NZ Price (at 05:06, 24 Feb 2015 GMT) Underperform NZ$2.20 Valuation NZ$ 1.74 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.6%, TGR 2.1%) 12-month target NZ$ 1.82 12-month TSR % -10.1 Volatility
More informationCarsales.com. Motoring along nicely A$10.23 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CRZ AU Price (at 9:48, 18 Feb 15 GMT) Outperform A$1.23 Valuation A$ 12.59 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 1.2, ERP 5., RFR 3.8%, TGR 3.) 12-month target A$ 12.3 12-month TSR % +24.1 Volatility Index
More informationGeneration Healthcare REIT All about spread Event
AUSTRALIA GHC AU Price (at 04:51, 14 Feb 2015 GMT) Neutral A$1.60 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 1.18-1.26 12-month target A$ 1.59 12-month TSR % +5.1 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Real Estate Market cap
More informationThe quiet achiever. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: July building approvals 30 August. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ABC AU Price (at 08:02, 16 Aug 2012 GMT) Outperform A$2.90 Volatility index Low/Medium 12-month target A$ 3.10 12-month TSR % +13.0 Valuation A$ 3.18 - DCF (WACC 10.0%, beta 1.2, ERP 4.5%, RFR
More informationSouthern Cross Media. Streamlining ahead of reform? A$1.37 AUSTRALIA
AUSTRALIA SXL AU Price (at 05:10, 27 Mar 2017 GMT) Neutral A$1.37 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 1.39 12-month target A$ 1.30 12-month TSR % +0.8 Volatility Index Medium GICS
More informationPerseus Mining. Revised Sissingué plan A$0.31 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA PRU AU Price (at 5:1, 31 Mar 217 GMT) Neutral A$.31 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%).35 12-month target A$.32 12-month TSR % +3.2 Volatility Index Very High GICS sector
More information3P Learning. Coming to America... A$2.55 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA 3PL AU Price (at 09:19, 02 Mar 2015 GMT) Outperform A$2.55 Valuation - DCF A$ 2.65-3.35 12-month target A$ 3.00 12-month TSR % +18.9 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Consumer Services
More informationAustal. Retail take up 62% Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ASB AU Price (at 01:41, 02 Jan 2013 GMT) A$0.58 Volatility index Medium GICS sector Capital Goods Market cap A$m 201 30-day avg turnover A$m 0.3 Number shares on issue m 346.0 Investment fundamentals
More informationDowner EDI Two out of three ain t bad Event
AUSTRALIA DOW AU Price (at 06:26, 01 Dec 2016 GMT) Outperform A$6.08 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 5.69-6.38 12-month target A$ 6.40 12-month TSR % +9.6 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationRegis Resources. Strong 1H15 result A$1.29 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA RRL AU Price (at 7:29, 13 2 GMT) Outperform A$1.29 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta 1.5, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 1.68 12-month target A$ 1.7 12-month TSR % +37.2 Volatility Index High GICS sector
More informationIron Mountain. US$10 worth Recalling at investor day US$31.83 UNITED STATES. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
UNITED STATES IRM US Price (at 20:03, 07 Oct 2015 GMT) Outperform US$31.83 Valuation - DCF (WACC 6.1%) US$ 40.00 12-month target US$ 40.00 12-month TSR % +31.6 GICS sector Real Estate Market cap US$m 6,711
More informationSuper Retail Group (SUL AU) Are we there yet?
25 October 2018 Australia EQUITIES SUL AU Price (at 09:01, 24 Oct 2018 GMT) Neutral A$8.33 Valuation A$ 8.30-9.50 - EV/EBITA 12-month target A$ 8.70 12-month TSR % +10.9 Volatility Index GICS sector Low/Medium
More informationANZ Bank. What execution risk? Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: 1Q17 Trading update, February 2017.
AUSTRALIA ANZ AU Price (at 09:15, 18 Jan 2017 GMT) Neutral A$30.11 Valuation A$ 30.69- - Sum of Parts/GG 31.47 12-month target A$ 31.00 12-month TSR % +8.4 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Banks
More informationAged Care. Propco sale & lease back A$2.71 A$5.75 A$6.15 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook
AUSTRALIA JHC AU Price (at 06:10, 27 Apr 2015 GMT) Outperform A$2.71 Valuation A$ 2.97 - DCF (WACC 9.1%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.3%) 12-month target A$ 3.00 12-month TSR % +14.7 Volatility
More informationPilbara Minerals (PLS AU) Ramp-up gaining traction
17 January 219 Australia EQUITIES PLS AU Price (at 5:1, 16 Jan 219 GMT) Outperform A$.7 Valuation A$ 1.11 - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 12-month target A$ 1.2 12-month TSR % +72.7 Volatility
More informationPanAust. Larger impairment and dividend cut A$1.35 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA PNA AU Price (at 7:6, 19 Feb 215 GMT) Outperform A$1.35 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 11.%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 1.73 12-month target A$ 1.7 12-month TSR % +25.9 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationSingTel. Optus rises A$3.98 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SGT AU Price (at 05:10, 12 Feb 2015 GMT) Outperform A$3.98 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 4.64-4.73 12-month target A$ 4.69 12-month TSR % +22.4 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Telecommunication
More informationEarnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA TLS AU Price (at 13:07, 19 Apr 2012 GMT) Outperform A$3.39 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 3.55 12-month TSR % +13.0 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.6%, beta 0.9, ERP 6.0%, TGR 1.0%) 3.55
More informationKaroon Gas. What a difference a day makes A$1.63 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA KAR AU Price (at 05:10, 16 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$1.63 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 11.1%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 2.79 12-month target A$ 2.40 12-month TSR % +47.7 Volatility Index High
More informationSandfire Resources. Swings to net cash A$5.34 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SFR AU Price (at 6:11, 7 Jul 216 GMT) Outperform A$5.34 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 5.82 12-month target A$ 6.1 12-month TSR % +18.3 Volatility Index Medium GICS
More informationFortescue Metals Group
AUSTRALIA FMG AU Price (at 5:1, 5 Mar 215 GMT) Neutral A$2.29 Valuation A$ 2.6 - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.6%) 12-month target A$ 2.6 12-month TSR % +16. Volatility Index High GICS
More informationAsaleo Care. NZ$ pulped. We review the outlook for Asaleo. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: CY15 results.
AUSTRALIA AHY AU Price (at 06:10, 16 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform A$1.80 Valuation - EV/EBITA A$ 1.90-2.00 12-month target A$ 2.00 12-month TSR % +16.8 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Household & Personal
More informationGenesis Energy. A 9% FCF yield and you call underperform? NZ$1.71 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
NEW ZEALAND GNE NZ Price (at 06:49, 29 Jul 2015 GMT) Underperform NZ$1.71 Valuation NZ$ 1.60 - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.5%, TGR 2.1%) 12-month target NZ$ 1.65 12-month TSR % +6.1 Volatility
More informationAustralia without mining
AUSTRALIA What would happen if iron ore spot prices remained at current levels? USD/tonne 19 17 15 13 11 9 7 Iron ore Spot Price 5 Aug-9 Oct-1 Dec-11 Feb-13 Source; ABS, Macquarie Research, September 1
More informationWoolworths. Incommunicado A$30.71 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA WOW AU Price (at CLOSE#, 27 Feb 2015) Underperform A$30.71 Valuation A$ 32.90- - Sum of Parts 32.97 12-month target A$ 32.94 12-month TSR % +11.7 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Food & Staples
More informationIndependence Group NL
AUSTRALIA IGO AU Price (at 12:29, 26 Oct 216 GMT) Outperform A$4.25 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.4%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 3.98 12-month target A$ 5. 12-month TSR % +2.2 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationJB Hi-Fi & Harvey Norman
AUSTRALIA HVN AU Price (at 06:10, 09 Sep 2015 GMT) Underperform A$3.96 Valuation - EV/EBIT A$ 4.16-4.56 12-month target A$ 4.36 12-month TSR % +12.0 Volatility Index Low Market cap A$m 4,523 30-day avg
More informationCIMIC Group. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Catalyst: Q1 earnings 13 April. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CIM AU Price (at 05:10, 31 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$35.93 Valuation A$ 42.69 - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ 42.50 12-month TSR % +22.0 Volatility
More informationHorizon Oil Gas commercialisation progressing Event
AUSTRALIA HZN AU Price (at 09:23, 31 Aug 2012 GMT) Outperform A$0.30 Volatility index High 12-month target A$ 0.50 12-month TSR % +66.7 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 11.1%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.0%, RFR 6.1%) 0.70
More informationAPA Group. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA APA AU Price (at 13:13, 22 Aug 2012 GMT) A$4.78 Volatility index Low GICS sector Utilities Market cap A$m 3,081 30-day avg turnover A$m 16.1 Number shares on issue m 644.5 Investment fundamentals
More informationPremier Investments. Making a move? A$14.18 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA PMV AU Price (at 09:06, 29 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$14.18 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 17.19 12-month target A$ 17.92 12-month TSR % +30.4 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Retailing Market
More informationSilver Lake Resources
AUSTRALIA SLR AU Price (at 12:42, 27 Jan 215 GMT) Neutral A$.25 Valuation - DCF (WACC 1.%) A$.23 12-month target A$.23 12-month TSR % -8. Volatility Index Very High GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m
More informationKiwi Property Group. Land banking for the future NZ$1.43 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
NEW ZEALAND KPG NZ Price (at 08:19, 07 Apr 2017 GMT) Outperform NZ$1.43 Valuation NZ$ 1.53 - DCF (WACC 6.9%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 1.53 12-month TSR % +11.8 Volatility
More informationNine Entertainment Co.
AUSTRALIA NEC AU Price (at 06:47, 26 Feb 2015 GMT) Outperform A$2.03 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.2%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 2.41 12-month target A$ 2.25 12-month TSR % +15.3 Volatility Index Low/Medium
More informationDexus Property Group. Infra driving industrial demand A$9.94 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA DXS AU Price (at 06:10, 06 Apr 2017 GMT) Neutral A$9.94 Valuation - NAV A$ 9.20-9.57 12-month target A$ 9.57 12-month TSR % +1.0 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Real Estate Market cap A$m 9,621
More informationFairfax / REA Group. No housing boom here. A$0.81 Valuation A$ Sum of Parts 12-month target A$ month TSR % +16.0
AUSTRALIA FXJ AU Price (at 05:11, 03 Nov 2016 GMT) Outperform A$0.81 Valuation A$ 0.88 - Sum of Parts 12-month target A$ 0.90 12-month TSR % +16.0 Volatility Index Low/Medium Market cap A$m 1,863 30-day
More informationCoca-Cola Amatil. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CCL AU Price (at 07:11, 11 Sep 2013 GMT) Neutral A$12.00 Valuation A$ 12.03 - DCF (WACC 7.8%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.7%, TGR 3.2%) 12-month target A$ 12.98 12-month TSR % +12.8 Volatility
More informationCSL: Global plasma report
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at 10:49, 11 Apr 2013 GMT) Outperform A$59.35 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 63.85 12-month TSR % +9.6 Valuation A$ 59.84 - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 0.9, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.0%, TGR
More information