Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUVR IN) Recovery to be protracted

Transcription

1 INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUVR IN) Recovery to be protracted INDIA FMCG Company Update Key highlights of HUL s FY15 annual report and management commentary: Demand environment continues to remain sluggish: FY15 saw a marked slowdown in growth in developed markets (such as Europe and Japan) and emerging markets (such as China). The operating environment in India remained challenging due to faltering demand, consumer down-trading, volatile input costs, and heightened competitive intensity. Domestic consumer business grew 1%, with 5% underlying volume growth. Premiumisation continues in soaps & detergents: Led by mix growth, soaps & detergents grew 9% yoy in FY15 (8%/19%/21% in FY14/13/12). Lower commodity costs and better cost management helped the segment s profit grow faster (14% yoy) despite sustained investments in quality and brand marketing. We expect this category s revenue to stay sluggish for the next two years (see 9%/11% growth in FY16/FY17). Personal products growth, while ahead of the market, was muted: Due to sluggish demand in the personal products market, this category grew 11% yoy in FY15 (9%/13%/13% in FY14/13/12). The segment s profit grew faster (17% yoy) due to lower commodity costs and better cost management. Our channel checks show that growth in personal products continues to face severe headwinds. Hence, we expect a slow revival (FY16/FY17 revenues to grow by 11%/ 12%). Other categories performed well: Beverages revenues grew 9% yoy in FY15 across both tea and coffee, lower than 11-13% growth in the preceding three years, due to lower price growth (as commodity costs were softer in H2FY15). We expect revenue growth of 11% and 12% yoy for FY16 and FY17 respectively. Packaged foods saw superior 15% growth driven by good growth in Kissan and Knorr. Water delivered double-digit growth while its margins improved significantly. Customer development function sees a major overhaul, but yet to deliver results: In line with its project, Winning In Many Indias (WIMI), the company has restructured its sales organisation with a new fifth sales branch in Lucknow. Going forward, the sales performance will be driven through 14 consumer clusters that will report to five sales branches, thereby helping the management to focus on unique consumer needs in each cluster. Cash flow down, royalty up: Operating cash flow declined 1% yoy to Rs 4.5bn. Royalty payments increased 4% to Rs 7.35bn (currently 2.4% of sales which will go to 3.15% by 218 in a staggered manner). Capital expenditure declined 2.5% to Rs 4.8bn. Working capital days increased by 2.6 because of lower current liabilities, and higher cash & cash equivalents. Balance sheet highlights: According to the management, cost of equity decreased to 1.9% in FY15 from 11.6% in FY14 (because of decreasing interest rates). Cash and cash equivalents increased by Rs 3.1bn to Rs 25.3bn. Current investment grew by Rs 1.6bn to Rs 26.2bn. Maintain estimates and recommendation (Neutral), cut the multiple: We have maintained our estimates incorporating slower volume growth and resurgence in crude oil prices. Currently, the company trades at 4x FY16 and 34x FY17 estimated earnings. We reduce our target P/E multiple for FY17 to 35x considering the de-rating of the FMCG sector; we value the stock at Rs 844 (Rs 92 earlier). Take into account the limited upside from current levels and sluggishness of growth in FY16, we maintain our recommendation at Neutral. 1 June 215 Neutral (Maintain) CMP RS 823 TARGET RS 844 (+3%) COMPANY DATA O/S SHARES (MN) : 2164 MARKET CAP (RSBN) : 1757 MARKET CAP (USDBN) : WK HI/LO (RS) : 979 / 61 LIQUIDITY 3M (USDMN) : 23.2 PAR VALUE (RS) : 1 SHARE HOLDING PATTERN, % PROMOTERS : 67.2 FII / NRI : 15.4 FI / MF : 3.8 NON PROMOTER CORP. HOLDINGS : 1.1 PUBLIC & OTHERS : 12.5 PRICE PERFORMANCE, % 1MTH 3MTH 1YR ABS REL TO BSE PRICE VS. SENSEX Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 HUL BSE Sensex Source: Phillip Capital India Research KEY FINANCIALS Rs mn FY15E FY16E FY17E Net Sales 31,75 331,592 37,97 EBIDTA 58,266 67,121 77,951 Net Profit 38,445 45,2 52,62 EPS, Rs PER, x EV/EBIDTA, x P/BV, x ROE, % Source: PhillipCapital India Research Est. Naveen Kulkarni, CFA, FRM ( ) nkulkarni@phillipcapital.in Jubil Jain ( ) jjain@phillipcapital.in Page 1 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

2 The stock valuation has adjusted to the muted earnings & overall derating of sector. One-year forward P/E band EV/EBITDA band 12 Rs 4x 25 Rs mn 24x x 2x 1x x 12x 6x Source: PhillipCapital India Research Estimate Change in Estimates (Rs mn) Earlier estimates Revised estimates Upgrade/(downgrade) (%) FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E Net Sales 333,8 377, ,592 37,97 (.4) (1.7) EBITDA 66,378 77,424 67,121 77, PBT 63,73 73,829 63,815 74, Adj PAT 44,782 52,49 44,99 52,49.5. Adj PAT margin (%) Adj EPS (Rs) Source: PhillipCapital India Research Estimates Page 2 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

3 Segment operating performance Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Sales Schedule as per Annual Report CY26 CY27 FY29 FY21 FY211 FY212 FY213 FY214 FY215 (15 months) Total Soaps 28,87 3,48 43,19 37,273 39,397 43,34 53,626 56,945 61,412 Synthetic Detergents 25,84 29,552 49,85 39,92 41,61 53,737 6,779 65,398 71,76 Total Soaps & Detergents 53,171 59,96 92,14 76,365 8,998 96, ,46 122, ,171 Personal products 34,575 38,68 56,161 51,73 59,262 65,98 74,288 8,927 89,967 Tea 14,95 15,512 21,567 19,251 2,975 19,824 22,246 25,78 28,119 Frozen Desserts & Ice Creams 1,344 1,585 2,294 2,289 2,72 3,543 4,134 4,549 5,515 Canned & processed fruits & vegetables 2,332 2,929 4,831 4,273 5,757 6,479 6,767 7,72 9,57 Branded Staple Foods 1,779 2,773 3,854 3,242 3,389 3,776 4,25 4,348 4,651 Others** 12,493 14,713 2,856 18,469 2,548 21,673 25,794 28,21 3,987 Growth yoy % Soaps (13.4) Synthetic Detergents (2.4) Total Soaps & Detergents (17.1) Personal products* (9.1) Tea (.9) (1.7) 9. (5.5) Frozen Desserts & Ice Creams (.2) Canned & processed fruits & vegetables (11.5) Branded Staple Foods (15.9) Others (11.4) Contribution % Soaps Synthetic Detergents Total Soaps & Detergents Personal products Tea Frozen Desserts & Ice Creams Canned & processed fruits & vegetables Branded Staple Foods Others Note: *Personal Products sales in FY12 are lower being adjusted for Other Operating Income. Reported growth is 17% yoy for FY12 ** Other business includes Water Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Page 3 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

4 Soaps: Due to volatile prices of palm oil and subdued growth in volumes, soaps saw 8% growth (6%/25%/9% in FY14/13/12). Lifebuoy clocked a revenue of Rs 2bn and reached its highest-ever market share. HUL re-launched Lux in the year, with a new fragrance; it garnered good consumer response, according to the company. In the premium segment, Dove continued to deliver volume-led growth. The company continued to invest in the promising categories of liquid hand wash and liquid body wash. Our take: We expect the demand in soaps to show a slow improvement; we see FY16/FY17 growth at 9%/11%. Low-inflation will increase competitive pressures from local and regional players. Detergents: Driven majorly by mix and price hike, detergents grew 1% (vs. 8%/13%/29% in FY14/FY13/FY12). The company passed on the benefits of low commodity prices to consumers, which helped improve the product mix. All the three detergent brands Surf, Rin, and Wheel are now Rs 2bn brands. Surf achieved double-digit growth. Higher growth in Surf and muted growth in Wheel saw Surf dislodging Wheel as HUL s largest brand. Within Rin, the bars portfolio grew welle while powders saw moderate growth. Fabric conditioner (Comfort) showed doubledigit growth. Our take: We expect detergents demand to pick up slowly over the next two financials we peg FY16/FY17 detergent revenue growth at 8%/1%. The company has taken price cuts in Surf and Rin. We expect the detergents portfolio to continue to premiumize in FY16. Household care: Vim sustained double-digit growth. Growth was driven by the tub and liquids portfolio. The Vim tub segment continued to see strong growth with the launch of a 25gm pack in the third quarter to complement the existing 5gm pack. Skin care: Face care growth was ahead of the market across skin lightening, facial cleansing, anti-ageing and men s formats. Fair & Lovely continued to deliver good growth in the second year of its re-launch as Best Ever Fair & Lovely. Pond s continued to deliver double-digit growth led by the good performance, particularly of the skin lightening and talcs portfolio. During the year, Pond s forayed into the malegrooming segment (including face washes and moisturisers), which has performed well according to the management. Lakmé sustained its growth momentum during the year. Our take: Though HUL s skin care segment has managed to outperform the market, its absolute growth is not very exciting; for FY16 and FY17 it will continue to remain challenging due to tepid demand environment in the category. Hair care: Hair care delivered another strong year of competitive volume-led doubledigit growth on superior performance across brands (Dove, Sunsilk, Clinic Plus and TRESemme). Clinic Plus consolidated its position as the largest shampoo franchise growing in strong double digits. Dove saw double digit growth. TRESemmé continued its premiumisation agenda. It launched two new products Split Remedy and Spa Rejuvenation. It has quickly joined HUL s Rs 1bn club. Toni&Guy, the premium brand from the Unilever s hair portfolio was rolled out in key premium outlets during the year. Oral Care: Oral care saw muted growth because of elevated competition and promotional intensity. Closeup launched a new variant, Diamond Attraction, a firstof-its-kind premium (instant) whitening variant. While Close Up performed well, Pepsodent continued to struggle. Color cosmetics: Lakmé Colors business sustained double-digit growth and is focused on premiumisation. It has two platforms 9 to 5 and Absolute under which it launched Absolute Gloss Addict. It also launched a Makeup Pro App, a real-time Page 4 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

5 virtual makeover mobile application. Other launches include creaseless lipsticks and Eyeconic shades. Deodorants: It recently launched Axe Signature perfume sprays. A new deodorant manufacturing facility was commissioned in Khamgaon (Maharashtra). This will support the indigenization of production for a large portion of deodorants in the aerosol form that are currently imported. Beverages: Beverages segment saw 9% revenue growth across tea and coffee. Premiumisation in tea was driven by Taj Mahal and 3 Roses. Instant coffee business saw growth with BRU Gold performing particularly well, according to the company. Foods: Packaged foods revenue grew 15% with profit growth of 36%. Kissan grew in double digits. Knorr s growth was led by soups, particularly the single-serve format. Knorr Noodles launched Chinese flavours. We believe that due to recent controversy surrounding Maggi, Knorr will be able to gain some market share in the noodles category. The frozen desserts and ice-cream business grew 21% and improved profitability led by new launches and increase in distribution. Magnum, the premium ice-cream brand is now present in Chennai, Mumbai, Pune, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Delhi, and Kolkata. Water: Pureit delivered double-digit growth while improving margins significantly. It introduced Ultima (RO+UV purifier). The product has been able to gain presence in the premium RO+UV segment with a double-digit market share in modern trade. Beauty and wellness: Lakme Lever delivered double-digit growth for the fifth consecutive year, although the market slowed down because of consumers pulling back discretionary spends. It opened 25 new salons taking the total count to 23. Significant initiatives HUL undertook the project Winning In Many Indias (WIMI) to leverage the diversity of people, culture, habits, economics, and demographics that exists across India. The company restructured its sales structure by setting up the fifth sales branch in Lucknow to unlock growth in Central India. In line with the WIMI strategy, performance of the country will be driven through 14 consumer clusters, reporting to five sales branches, focusing the categories on the unique consumer needs in each cluster. In order to tap the fast growing e-commerce channel, HUL has launched a website Though the website is functional only in select areas of Mumbai and Gurgaon, the company is well placed to lead category growth in this channel. HUL s supply chain saving was 5% driven by various cross-functional teams, such as R&D, procurement, manufacturing and logistics. Project Shakti (Hindustan Unilever's rural direct-to-consumer retail distribution initiative) now has over 7, Shakti Entrepreneurs (Shakti Ammas) and 48, Shaktimaans covering 165, villages and reaching over four million rural households. Page 5 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

6 Revenue growth has slowed down in last two years and we estimate a protracted recovery 35 Revenue Revenue Growth (rhs) 2% 3 15% % 5% % 5-5% -1% Gross Margins continue to see improvement. We estimate further improvements driven by mix improvement & savings in raw material sourcing Gross Profit % ofsales (rhs) 5% 49% 48% 47% 46% 45% 44% 43% 42% 41% 4% Operating Cash Flows have been steady over the years Operating Cash Flow % of sales (rhs) 2% 18% 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Page 6 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

7 EBITDA margins have been stagnant over last few years and we estimate gradual improvement in future driven by better cost management 5 EBITDA EBITDA Margin (rhs) 25% 4 2% 3 15% 2 1% 1 5% % Ad Spends have been sustained at high levels since last few years due to prolonged and intense competitive intensity 5 Ad Spends % of sales (rhs) 16% 4 14% 12% 3 2 1% 8% 6% 1 4% 2% % Free Cash Flow has been healthy over last few years and we estimate it to be stable for FY16 & FY17 4 Free Cash Flow % of sales (rhs) 25% 3 2% 2 15% 1% 1 5% % Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Page 7 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

8 Financials Income Statement Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Net sales 274,83 31,75 331,592 37,97 Growth, % Other income 12,319 12,535 13,711 15,286 Total income 286,42 314,24 345,33 386,193 Raw material expenses -143, , , ,395 Employee expenses -14,36-15,789-17,466-19,27 Other Operating expenses -77,643-83,949-92,355-12,64 EBITDA (Core) 5,963 58,266 67,121 77,951 Growth, % Margin, % Depreciation -2,66-2,867-3,137-3,426 EBIT 48,357 55,399 63,984 74,525 Growth, % Margin, % Interest paid Pre-tax profit 47,997 55,24 63,827 74,369 Tax provided -11,14-16,795-18,826-22,37 Profit after tax 36,983 38,445 45,2 52,62 Net Profit 36,983 38,445 45,2 52,62 Growth, % Net Profit (adjusted) 36,983 38,445 45,2 52,62 Unadj. shares (m) 2,162 2,162 2,162 2,162 Wtd avg shares (m) 2,162 2,162 2,162 2,162 Balance Sheet Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Cash & bank 22,21 25,376 33,12 41,375 Debtors 8,164 7,829 8,975 1,42 Inventory 27,475 26,27 28,44 3,97 Loans & advances 11,432 12,47 13,98 14,428 Other current assets Total current assets 7, 72,232 83,722 96,913 Investments 3,941 32,779 32,779 32,779 Gross fixed assets 44,429 47,214 51,714 56,714 Less: Depreciation -2,28-22,638-25,775-29,22 Add: Capital WIP 3,198 4,79 4,79 4,79 Net fixed assets 27,418 29,365 3,729 32,32 Non-current assets Total assets 129, , , ,958 Current liabilities 78,18 75,59 82,448 89,612 Provisions 19,34 23,52 27,54 31,185 Total current liabilities 97,214 99,93 19,988 12,798 Total liabilities 97,214 99,93 19,988 12,798 Paid-up capital 2,163 2,164 2,164 2,164 Reserves & surplus 3,68 35,84 37,42 4,997 Shareholders equity 32,77 37,248 39,26 43,16 Total equity & liabilities 129, , , ,958 Cash Flow FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Pre-tax profit 47,997 55,24 63,827 74,369 Depreciation 2,66 2,867 3,137 3,426 Chg in working capital 7,775-1,653 3,4 2,336 Total tax paid -12,966-15,92-13,76-2,825 Cash flow from operating activities 45,412 4,535 56,262 59,35 Capital expenditure -4,939-4,814-4,5-4,999 Cash flow from investing activities -12,573-6,649-4,496-4,995 Free cash flow 32,839 33,886 51,766 54,31 Dividend (incl. tax) -29,485-35,561-44,113-45,931 Cash flow from financing activities -25,533-35,424-44,113-45,931 Net chg in cash 7,36-1,539 7,653 8,379 Valuation Ratios FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Per Share data EPS (INR) Growth, % Book NAV/share (INR) FDEPS (INR) CEPS (INR) CFPS (INR) DPS (INR) Return ratios Return on assets (%) Return on equity (%) Return on capital employed (%) Turnover ratios Asset turnover (x) (158.3) (257.9) (1,752.4) (266.6) Sales/Total assets (x) Sales/Net FA (x) Working capital/sales (x) (.2) (.2) (.2) (.2) Working capital days (65.8) (63.2) (65.3) (64.2) Liquidity ratios Current ratio (x) Quick ratio (x) Interest cover (x) Dividend cover (x) Net debt/equity (%) (67.8) (68.1) (84.2) (95.9) Valuation PER (x) Price/Book (x) Yield (%) EV/Net sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/EBIT (x) Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Estimates Page 8 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

9 Management Vineet Bhatnagar (Managing Director) (91 22) Kinshuk Bharti Tiwari (Head Institutional Equity) (91 22) Jignesh Shah (Head Equity Derivatives) (91 22) Research Automobiles Economics Midap Dhawal Doshi (9122) Anjali Verma (9122) Amol Rao (9122) Banking, NBFCs Infrastructure & IT Services Portfolio Strategy Manish Agarwalla (9122) Vibhor Singhal (9122) Anindya Bhowmik (9122) Pradeep Agrawal (9122) Deepan Kapadia (9122) Paresh Jain (9122) Technicals Logistics, Transportation & Midcap Subodh Gupta, CMT (9122) Consumer, Media, Telecom Vikram Suryavanshi (9122) Naveen Kulkarni, CFA, FRM (9122) Production Manager Jubil Jain (9122) Metals Ganesh Deorukhkar (9122) Manoj Behera (9122) Dhawal Doshi (9122) Database Manager Cement Oil&Gas, Agri Inputs Deepak Agarwal (9122) Vaibhav Agarwal (9122) Gauri Anand (9122) Editor Engineering, Capital Goods Pharma Roshan Sony Ankur Sharma (9122) Surya Patra (9122) Hrishikesh Bhagat (9122) Mehul Sheth (9122) Sr. Manager Equities Support Rosie Ferns (9122) Sales & Distribution Corporate Communications Ashvin Patil (9122) Sales Trader Zarine Damania (9122) Shubhangi Agrawal (9122) Dilesh Doshi (9122) Kishor Binwal (9122) Suniil Pandit (9122) Sidharth Agrawal (9122) Execution Bhavin Shah (9122) Mayur Shah (9122) SINGAPORE Phillip Securities Pte Ltd 25 North Bridge Road, #6- Raffles City Tower, Singapore Tel : (65) Fax: (65) JAPAN Phillip Securities Japan, Ltd 4-2 Nihonbashi Kabutocho, Chuo-ku Tokyo Tel: (81) Fax: (81) THAILAND Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Co. Ltd. 15th Floor, Vorawat Building, 849 Silom Road, Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok 15 Thailand Tel (66) Fax: (66) UNITED STATES Phillip Futures Inc. 141 W Jackson Blvd Ste 35 The Chicago Board of Trade Building Chicago, IL 664 USA Tel (1) Fax: (1) Contact Information (Regional Member Companies) MALAYSIA Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd B-3-6 Block B Level 3, Megan Avenue II, No. 12, Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, 545 Kuala Lumpur Tel (6) Fax (6) INDONESIA PT Phillip Securities Indonesia ANZ Tower Level 23B, Jl Jend Sudirman Kav 33A, Jakarta 122, Indonesia Tel (62) Fax: (62) FRANCE King & Shaxson Capital Ltd. 3rd Floor, 35 Rue de la Bienfaisance 758 Paris France Tel (33) Fax : (33) AUSTRALIA PhillipCapital Australia Level 37, 53 Collins Street Melbourne, Victoria 3, Australia Tel: (61) Fax: (61) INDIA PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited No. 1, 18th Floor, Urmi Estate, 95 Ganpatrao Kadam Marg, Lower Parel West, Mumbai 413 Tel: (9122) Fax: (9122) HONG KONG Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd 11/F United Centre 95 Queensway Hong Kong Tel (852) Fax: (852) CHINA Phillip Financial Advisory (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. No 55 Yan An East Road, Ocean Tower Unit 2318 Shanghai 2 1 Tel (86) Fax: (86) UNITED KINGDOM King & Shaxson Ltd. 6th Floor, Candlewick House, 12 Cannon Street London, EC4N 6AS Tel (44) Fax: (44) SRI LANKA Asha Phillip Securities Limited Level 4, Millennium House, 46/58 Navam Mawatha, Colombo 2, Sri Lanka Tel: (94) Fax: (94) Page 9 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

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