Zuari Agro Chemicals (ZUAC IN) Results disappoint, outlook intact
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- Derick Stevenson
- 6 years ago
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1 INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH Zuari Agro Chemicals (ZUAC IN) Results disappoint, outlook intact INDIA AGRI INPUTS Quarterly Update 29 January 2015 Zuari results were a disappointment following logistical issues that impacted sales and paucity in power supply that led to fuelling the P&K plants on expensive diesel gen sets that impacted margins. To account for the disappointment and the preponed shutdown, we cut our estimates for FY15E, however retain FY16E. Earnings are expected to rebound from a loss of about Rs 500 mn in FY14E to Rs 150 mn/10 bn in FY15/16E respectively. Zuari intends to be a pan India fertilizer play (through acquisitions) and is initiating to lower its Urea energy consumption at budgeted capex of Rs 15 bn. To part fund this capex the company has sought shareholders approval for Rs 4 bn QIP (about 30% dilution at offer price of Rs 300/sh). The disappointment in earnings and the proposed QIP has been a big overhang on the stock, we expect Zuari to clarify its stand at the earliest. We find it difficult that Zuari would be allowed to revamp its ammonia urea plant in Goa and thus the budgeted capex of Rs 10bn would unlikely be spent. In this backdrop the QIP of Rs 4 bn could be well called off and the bridge loans could help finance its stake increase in Paradeep Phosphates and MCFL. The regulatory pronouncement is progressive (gas price pooling, GST that would lower the LNG entry tax which is presently at 20%) which would essentially lower its w.cap requirement driving earnings. Its intended strategy of having a pan India presence and lowering energy consumption is well found. On expectation of earnings reversing to the mean and attractive valuations (9.7x PER and 1.1xPBR on FY16E), we reiterate Buy. Q3 Results disappoint: The Q3FY15 results were a disappointment primarily because of lower sales volumes due to logistical issues and sudden jump in power costs (the plant operations were interrupted following paucity of power and it was made good by running the plants on diesel gensets cost almost higher by Rs 4/kwh). Overall revenues degrew 8% yoy (to Rs bn) and fell short of our estimates by 10%. While production improved but shortage of rake availability led to lower dispatches in Q3 and this could be made up in Q4FY15. Power & fuel costs grew 70% qoq (implying higher production but inconsequent sales), impacting operating margins by 100 bps yoy to 5%. Absolute Ebitda degrew 18% to Rs 730 mn. Finance costs have been steadily coming off and it fell further by 15% qoq, however a higher tax spend led to flat profit after tax yoy of Rs 171 mn (vs 220 mn qoq and below our estimate of Rs 240 mn). Further Zuari has pre poned its urea maintenance shutdown from Q1FY16 to Q 4FY15 (i.e Jan Mar 15) and this implies the Q4 would not be too inspiring either. Overall we estimate FY15E PAT of Rs 150 mn v/s a loss of Rs 550 mn in FY14. However we make no changes to our FY16E PAT of Rs 1 bn in FY16E. Budgeted spend of Rs 15 bn: 1/ Zuari intends raising Rs 4 bn through QIP and seeks shareholder approval for the same. The purpose of the QIP is to acquire government s 20% stake in Paradeep Phosphates (Zuari/OCP, Morocco own 40% each) and to part fund its ammonia urea major revamp in Goa. The management has stated that they are looking at QIP offer price of Rs 300/sh (i.e 31.7% eq dilution) 2/ The ammonia urea revamp would lower energy by 1 Gcal/mt (almost Rs 3000 mt accretion to Ebitda) and also raise urea capacity by 200,000 mt. The project would cost Rs 10 bn and Zuari would use the proceeds of QIP and available credit lines to fund this, however we doubt the possibility of this going through and thus hold that the QIP may be called off 3/ Zuari has launched an open offer to acquire 4.3cr shares in MCFL (about 36% of its equity Rs 3.87 bn) and this will be entirely funded through a bridge loan, which shall be refinanced later. Zuari is hopeful of raising its stake to 51% in MCFL. BUY (Maintain) CMP RS 235 TARGET UNDER REVIEW COMPANY DATA O/S SHARES (MN) : 42 MARKET CAP (RSBN) : 11 MARKET CAP (USDBN) : WK HI/LO (RS) : 310 / 123 LIQUIDITY 3M (USDMN) : 0.2 PAR VALUE (RS) : 10 SHARE HOLDING PATTERN, % PROMOTERS : 73.4 FII / NRI : 2.9 FI / MF : 14.7 NON PROMOTER CORP. HOLDINGS : 2.4 PUBLIC & OTHERS : 6.7 PRICE PERFORMANCE, % 1MTH 3MTH 1YR ABS REL TO BSE PRICE VS. SENSEX Jan 13 Dec 13 Nov 14 Zuari Chem BSE Sensex Source: Phillip Capital India Research KEY FINANCIALS Rs mn FY14 FY15E FY16E Net Sales 51,759 53,769 57,372 EBIDTA 1,759 2,578 3,416 Net Profit ,016 EPS, Rs (13.3) PER, x (17.7) EV/EBIDTA, x P/BV, x ROE, % (6.9) Debt/Equity (%) Source: PhillipCapital India Research Est. Gauri Anand ( ) ganand@phillipcapital.in Page 1 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
2 Quarterly and Nine months results Figs in Rs mn Q3FY14 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 YoY% QoQ% 9MFY14 9MFY15 % YoY Net Sales 15,399 15,316 14, ,885 39, Other Operating Income Total Income 15,567 15,355 14, ,098 39, Raw Material Consumed 9,008 6,367 8, ,269 19, as a % of sales Stock Adjustment 1,659 3,998 2, , Gross margins 4,732 4,950 7, ,385 20, Gross margins (%) Purchase of Finished Goods 934 1,858 4, ,265 11, as a % of sales Employee Expenses as a % of sales Other Expenses 2,832 2,093 2, ,255 6, as a % of sales Total Expenditure 14,672 14,542 13, ,638 38, as a % of sales Ebitda , OPM (%) Other Income PBIDT , Interest ,858 1, PBDT , Depreciation PBT , Tax NA Reported Profit After Tax , Extra ordinary Items NA NA NA Adjusted PAT after EO Eps Adj Rs Untied debt if expansion and QIP goes through is Rs 11 bn Rs mn PC Comments Additional 43 mn sh acquisition of Mangalore 3980 Open offer currently on Acquisition of Govt's stake in PPL 1400 Assumes the entire 20% stake at 10x FY14 PAT of Rs 700 mn Revamp of ammonia urea To lower energy consumption by 1 Gcal/mt and enhance Urea capacity by 0.2 mmt Total funds needed Proposed QIP 4000 At offer price of Rs 300/sh it would result in over 30% equity dilution, however this would be likely called off, due to lower investor appetite Additional debt (un tied bal fig) Untied debt if expansion and QIP goes through Production and Sales volume degrew 4% yoy Particulars Q3FY14 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 YoY% QoQ% Production (in mt) Urea 109,447 58, , DAP 71,187 21,406 #DIV/0! 69.9 NPK 214,336 94, , Total 323, , , Mfg Sales (in mt) Urea 110,338 63, , DAP 79,166 21,609 #DIV/0! 72.7 NPK 193, , , Total 303, , , Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Page 2 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
3 Financials Income Statement Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY13 FY14 FY15e FY16e Net sales 52,374 51,759 53,769 57,372 Growth, % Raw material expenses 19,629 23,586 24,502 26,971 Employee expenses ,033 Other Operating expenses 29,924 25,637 25,721 25,952 EBITDA (Core) 2,067 1,759 2,578 3,416 Growth, % (9.4) (14.9) Margin, % Depreciation EBIT 1,829 1,552 2,413 3,243 Growth, % (12.9) (15.2) Margin, % Interest paid Other Non Operating Income Non recurring Items Pre tax profit ,269 Tax provided Profit after tax ,016 Others (Minorities, Associates) Net Profit ,016 Growth, % (76.3) (328.7) (127.8) Net Profit (adjusted) 244 (559) 155 1,016 Unadj. shares (m) Wtd avg shares (m) Balance Sheet Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY13 FY14 FY15e FY16e Cash & bank 1, ,988 Debtors 29,629 28,626 26,516 23,577 Inventory 5,811 5,590 5,610 5,617 Loans & advances 388 2,608 3,108 3,608 Other current assets 1, Total current assets 39,159 37,325 36,601 35,290 Investments 1,975 3,289 3,289 3,289 Gross fixed assets 1,882 2,362 3,145 3,895 Add: Capital WIP Net fixed assets 2,690 3,145 3,895 4,695 Total assets 43,824 43,759 43,784 43,274 Current liabilities 34,755 34,482 34,193 32,655 Provisions Total current liabilities 35,223 34,914 34,773 33,431 Non current liabilities Total liabilities 35,881 35,702 35,560 34,219 Paid up capital Reserves & surplus 7,522 7,636 7,644 8,462 Shareholders equity 7,943 8,057 8,064 8,883 Total equity & liabilities 43,824 43,759 43,784 43,274 Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Estimates Cash Flow FY13 FY14 FY15e FY16e Pre tax profit ,269 Depreciation Chg in working capital 1, ,431 1,090 Total tax paid Cash flow from operating activities ,752 2,279 Capital expenditure Chg in investments 0 1, Cash flow from investing activities 828 1, Free cash flow 1,611 1, ,306 Equity raised/(repaid) Dividend (incl. tax) Cash flow from financing activities Net chg in cash 1,662 1, ,928 Valuation Ratios FY13 FY14 FY15e FY16e Per Share data EPS (INR) 5.8 (13.3) Growth, % (76.3) (328.7) (127.8) Book NAV/share (INR) FDEPS (INR) 5.8 (13.3) CEPS (INR) 11.5 (27.9) CFPS (INR) (20.2) DPS (INR) Return ratios Return on assets (%) Return on equity (%) 3.1 (6.9) Return on capital employed (%) Turnover ratios Asset turnover (x) Sales/Total assets (x) Sales/Net FA (x) Working capital/sales (x) Fixed capital/sales (x) Receivable days Inventory days Payable days Working capital days Liquidity ratios Current ratio (x) Quick ratio (x) Interest cover (x) Dividend cover (x) 1.9 (4.4) Total debt/equity (%) Net debt/equity (%) Valuation PER (x) 40.4 (17.7) PEG (x) y o y growth (0.5) 0.1 (0.5) 0.0 Price/Book (x) Yield (%) EV/Net sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/EBIT (x) Page 3 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
4 Management Vineet Bhatnagar (Managing Director) (91 22) Kinshuk Bharti Tiwari (Head Institutional Equity) (91 22) Jignesh Shah (Head Equity Derivatives) (91 22) Research Automobiles Engineering, Capital Goods Pharma Dhawal Doshi (9122) Ankur Sharma (9122) Surya Patra (9122) Priya Ranjan (9122) Hrishikesh Bhagat (9122) Mehul Sheth (9122) Banking, NBFCs Infrastructure & IT Services Retail, Real Estate Manish Agarwalla (9122) Vibhor Singhal (9122) Abhishek Ranganathan, CFA (9122) Pradeep Agrawal (9122) Deepan Kapadia (9122) Paresh Jain (9122) Portfolio Stategy Midcap Anindya Bhowmik (9122) Consumer, Media, Telecom Vikram Suryavanshi (9122) Naveen Kulkarni, CFA, FRM (9122) Technicals Jubil Jain (9122) Metals Subodh Gupta, CMT (9122) Manoj Behera (9122) Dhawal Doshi (9122) Ankit Gor (9122) Production Manager Cement Ganesh Deorukhkar (9122) Vaibhav Agarwal (9122) Oil&Gas, Agri Inputs Gauri Anand (9122) Sr. Manager Equities Support Economics Deepak Pareek (9122) Rosie Ferns (9122) Anjali Verma (9122) Sales & Distribution Corporate Communications Ashvin Patil (9122) Sales Trader Zarine Damania (9122) Shubhangi Agrawal (9122) Dilesh Doshi (9122) Kishor Binwal (9122) Suniil Pandit (9122) Sidharth Agrawal (9122) Execution Bhavin Shah (9122) Mayur Shah (9122) SINGAPORE Phillip Securities Pte Ltd 250 North Bridge Road, #06 00 Raffles City Tower, Singapore Tel : (65) Fax: (65) JAPAN Phillip Securities Japan, Ltd 4 2 Nihonbashi Kabutocho, Chuo ku Tokyo Tel: (81) Fax: (81) THAILAND Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Co. Ltd. 15th Floor, Vorawat Building, 849 Silom Road, Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok Thailand Tel (66) Fax: (66) UNITED STATES Phillip Futures Inc. 141 W Jackson Blvd Ste 3050 The Chicago Board of Trade Building Chicago, IL USA Tel (1) Fax: (1) Contact Information (Regional Member Companies) MALAYSIA Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd B 3 6 Block B Level 3, Megan Avenue II, No. 12, Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, Kuala Lumpur Tel (60) Fax (60) INDONESIA PT Phillip Securities Indonesia ANZ Tower Level 23B, Jl Jend Sudirman Kav 33A, Jakarta 10220, Indonesia Tel (62) Fax: (62) FRANCE King & Shaxson Capital Ltd. 3rd Floor, 35 Rue de la Bienfaisance Paris France Tel (33) Fax : (33) AUSTRALIA PhillipCapital Australia Level 37, 530 Collins Street Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia Tel: (61) Fax: (61) INDIA PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited No. 1, 18th Floor, Urmi Estate, 95 Ganpatrao Kadam Marg, Lower Parel West, Mumbai Tel: (9122) Fax: (9122) HONG KONG Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd 11/F United Centre 95 Queensway Hong Kong Tel (852) Fax: (852) CHINA Phillip Financial Advisory (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. No 550 Yan An East Road, Ocean Tower Unit 2318 Shanghai Tel (86) Fax: (86) UNITED KINGDOM King & Shaxson Ltd. 6th Floor, Candlewick House, 120 Cannon Street London, EC4N 6AS Tel (44) Fax: (44) SRI LANKA Asha Phillip Securities Limited Level 4, Millennium House, 46/58 Navam Mawatha, Colombo 2, Sri Lanka Tel: (94) Fax: (94) Page 4 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
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