Cummins India CPCB norms a structural positive upgrade to BUY PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. CAPITAL GOODS: Quarterly Update 22 December 2013
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1 Cummins India CPCB norms a structural positive upgrade to BUY PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. CAPITAL GOODS: Quarterly Update 22 December 2013 The new CPCB 2 norms for DG sets (<800kw) have been notified by the MOEF with an implementation date of 1 st April, 2014 (last change in 2005). Surprisingly, only three months have been allowed to transition to the new norms vs. expectations of six months; in our view, the implementation date is likely to get pushed back by another three months. Key impact of the new norms is highlighted below: Price of engines to rise by 15 20%. In order to comply with the new norms, key changes needed to be made would be to the fuel system (multi fuel injection/crdi), turbochargers, and filters to reduce emissions. Currently, the domestic manufacturers were selling mechanical engines which in order to meet the new regulation would be upgraded to electronically controlled engines and entail a price increase of 15 20%. Since engines are ~50% of the cost of a DG set, we expect overall DG set prices to rise by 8 10%. Note that players like Perkins, MTU have already got electronic engines and a price increase by Cummins, KOEL would reduce the price difference between the domestic and imported engines. However, in our view the key driver for a DG purchase is the distribution strength of the manufacturer and not the price; therefore a narrowing of the price difference between a Cummins and Perkins DG set would have a limited impact. Pre buy in Q414 and a dip in volumes seen in Q115. The new CPCB norms are expected to be implemented from 1 st April, 2014 which implies that there would be a pre buy in Q414 with customers wanting to buy the cheaper DG sets before the new norms set in. Thereafter, Q115 would see a sharp drop in volumes. ~70% of engines sold by Cummins India would come under the purview of the new norms. Consolidation in the DG set industry. We expect that the larger domestic players in the industry such as Cummins, KOEL, Greaves Cotton, Mahindra to be ready with CPCB 2 compliant engines in time by 1 st April, However, a number of players in the unorganized sector are expected to be weeded out of the market as they are unlikely to be able to meet the stringent norms. This would be a structural positive for domestic DG set players as this would lead to consolidation in the industry and reduce the overall players participating in the industry. Globally, it has been seen that Cummins gains market share after introduction of new norms and we do not expect to be any different this time around in India. Estimates and target price: We revise up our estimates for FY14 and FY15 by 3% and 5% respectively and introduce our FY16e estimates. We roll forward our target price to FY16 EPS and assign a target multiple of 20x to get our target price of Rs 520; upgrade to BUY. Key changes in our FY14 nos. are to account for a strong growth in volumes and margins in Q414 due to the pre buy impact while our FY15e estimates rise as we factor in a mild recovery in the domestic and export DG markets. BUY KKC IN CMP RS 478 TARGET RS 520 (+11%) Company Data O/S SHARES (MN) : 277 MARKET CAP (RSBN) : 109 MARKET CAP (USDBN) : WK HI/LO (RS) : 550 / 365 LIQUIDITY 3M (USDMN) : 2.3 FACE VALUE (RS) : 2 Share Holding Pattern, % PROMOTERS : 51.0 FII / NRI : 16.5 FI / MF : 19.5 NON PROMOTER CORP. HOLDINGS : 3.7 PUBLIC & OTHERS : 9.4 Price Performance, % 1mth 3mth 1yr ABS REL TO BSE Price Vs. Sensex (Rebased values) Jul 10 Jun 11 May 12 Apr 13 Cummins Rel. to BSE Source: PhillipCapital India Research Other Key Ratios Rs mn FY13 FY14E FY15E Net Sales 45,090 40,720 45,695 EBIDTA 7,545 6,233 7,302 Net Profit 6,633 6,033 6,641 EPS, Rs PER, x EV/EBIDTA, x P/BV, x ROE, % Debt/Equity (%) Source: PhillipCapital India Research Est. Ankur Sharma ( ) asharma@phillipcapital.in Please refer to Disclosures and Disclaimers at the end of the Research Report.
2 Change in estimates table Rs Mn New Estimates Old Estimates Change In Estimates Description FY13 FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E Sales 45,090 40,720 45,695 40,077 43,815 2% 4% EBITDA 7,545 6,233 7,302 6,005 6,740 4% 8% Margins(%) 16.7% 15.3% 16.0% 15.0% 15.4% 0.3% 0.6% PAT 6,633 6,033 6,641 5,866 6,300 3% 5% EPS % 6% Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Estimates Cummins India quarterly EBITDA margins 24% EBITDA Margins(%) 22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 Q111 Q211 Q311 4Q11 Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 Q113 Q213 Q313 Q413 Q114 Q214 Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Cummins India revenues break up Power Generation Industrial Automotive Distribution Exports 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 24% 33% 36% 32% 30% 13% 19% 10% 8% 8% 19% 2% 3% 7% 15% 13% 13% 13% 45% 42% 41% 43% 43% 39% 16% 3% 11% 31% 15% 26% 29% 28% 23% 19% 19% 20% 9% 6% 7% 4% 15% 14% 11% 14% 37% 35% 31% 36% FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Estimates 2 of 6
3 Financials Income Statement Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E Net sales 45,090 40,720 45,695 50,264 Growth, % Total income 45,090 40,720 45,695 50,264 Raw material expenses 29,525 26,592 29,534 32,172 Employee expenses 3,386 3,384 3,797 4,177 Other Operating expenses 4,634 4,511 5,062 5,568 EBITDA (Core) 7,545 6,233 7,302 8,347 Growth, % 19.3 (17.4) Margin, % Depreciation EBIT 7,073 5,702 6,571 7,464 Growth, % 19.8 (19.4) Margin, % Interest paid Other Non Operating Income 2,381 2,611 2,575 2,326 Pre tax profit 9,407 8,265 9,098 9,742 Tax provided 2,774 2,232 2,456 2,630 Net Profit 6,633 6,033 6,641 7,111 Growth, % 22.9 (9.0) Net Profit (adjusted) 6,633 6,033 6,641 7,111 Wtd avg shares (m) Balance Sheet Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E Cash & bank 3,547 4,130 2,929 4,241 Debtors 8,550 7,721 8,665 9,531 Inventory 5,304 4,789 5,375 5,912 Loans & advances 6,788 8,361 9,383 10,321 Other current assets Total current assets 24,278 25,084 26,442 30,106 Investments 6,276 3,276 1,276 0 Gross fixed assets 10,415 14,915 19,915 22,165 Less: Depreciation 5,480 6,012 6,743 7,626 Add: Capital WIP 1,208 1,208 1,208 1,208 Net fixed assets 6,142 10,111 14,380 15,747 Total assets 36,696 38,470 42,098 45,852 Current liabilities 7,719 6,971 7,823 8,605 Provisions 4,782 4,782 4,782 4,782 Total current liabilities 12,501 11,753 12,605 13,387 Non current liabilities Total liabilities 12,829 12,081 12,932 13,715 Paid up capital Reserves & surplus 23,313 25,835 28,611 31,583 Shareholders equity 23,867 26,389 29,165 32,138 Total equity & liabilities 36,696 38,470 42,098 45,852 Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Estimates Cash Flow Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E Pre tax profit 9,407 8,265 9,098 9,742 Depreciation Chg in working capital 1, ,708 1,569 Total tax paid 2,377 2,232 2,456 2,630 Cash flow from operating activities 6,425 5,595 5,664 6,426 Capital expenditure 1,469 4,500 5,000 2,250 Chg in investments 300 3,000 2,000 1,276 Cash flow from investing activities 1,769 1,500 3, Free cash flow 4,656 4,095 2,664 5,451 Equity raised/(repaid) Debt raised/(repaid) Dividend (incl. tax) 4,195 3,512 3,865 4,139 Other financing activities Cash flow from financing activities 3,344 3,512 3,865 4,139 Net chg in cash 1, ,201 1,312 Valuation Ratios & Per Share Data Per Share data FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E EPS (INR) Growth, % 22.9 (9.0) Book NAV/share (INR) FDEPS (INR) CEPS (INR) CFPS (INR) DPS (INR) Return ratios Return on assets (%) Return on equity (%) Return on capital employed (%) Turnover ratios Asset turnover (x) Sales/Total assets (x) Sales/Net FA (x) Working capital/sales (x) Working capital days Liquidity ratios Current ratio (x) Quick ratio (x) Interest cover (x) Dividend cover (x) Total debt/equity (%) Net debt/equity (%) (14.9) (15.7) (10.0) (13.2) Valuation PER (x) Price/Book (x) Yield (%) EV/Net sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/EBIT (x) of 6
4 Recommendation Chart S (TP 410) S (TP 400) S (TP 415) S (TP 440) 400 S (TP 400) N (TP 420) N (TP 400) S (TP 370) /2/2012 5/10/2012 9/14/2012 1/28/2013 6/7/ /18/2013 Source: PhillipCapital India Research 4 of 6
5 Management Vineet Bhatnagar (Managing Director) (91 22) Jignesh Shah (Head Equity Derivatives) (91 22) Research Automobiles Deepak Jain (9122) Banking, NBFCs Manish Agarwalla (9122) Sachit Motwani, CFA, FRM (9122) Consumer, Media, Telecom Naveen Kulkarni, CFA, FRM (9122) Ennette Fernandes (9122) Vivekanand Subbaraman (9122) Cement Vaibhav Agarwal (9122) Economics Anjali Verma (9122) Sales & Distribution Kinshuk Tiwari (9122) Ashvin Patil (9122) Shubhangi Agrawal (9122) Kishor Binwal (9122) Sidharth Agrawal (9122) Dipesh Sohani (9122) Engineering, Capital Goods Ankur Sharma (9122) Infrastructure & IT Services Vibhor Singhal (9122) Varun Vijayan (9122) Metals Dhawal Doshi (9122) Dharmesh Shah (9122) Mid caps Kapil Bagaria (9122) Oil&Gas, Agri Inputs Gauri Anand (9122) Deepak Pareek (9122) Saurabh Rathi (9122) Dilesh Doshi (Sales Trader) (9122) Suniil Pandit (Sales Trader) (9122) Rajesh Ashar (Sales Trader) (9122) Pharma Surya Patra (9122) Retail, Real Estate Abhishek Ranganathan, CFA (9122) Neha Garg (9122) Quant Shikha Khurana (9122) Sr. Manager Equities Support Rosie Ferns (9122) Mayur Shah (Execution) (9122) Contact Information (Regional Member Companies) SINGAPORE Phillip Securities Pte Ltd 250 North Bridge Road, #06 00 Raffles City Tower, Singapore Tel : (65) Fax: (65) JAPAN Phillip Securities Japan, Ltd 4 2 Nihonbashi Kabutocho, Chuo ku Tokyo Tel: (81) Fax: (81) THAILAND Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Co. Ltd. 15th Floor, Vorawat Building, 849 Silom Road, Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok Thailand Tel (66) Fax: (66) UNITED STATES Phillip Futures Inc. 141 W Jackson Blvd Ste 3050 The Chicago Board of Trade Building Chicago, IL USA Tel (1) Fax: (1) MALAYSIA Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd B 3 6 Block B Level 3, Megan Avenue II, No. 12, Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, Kuala Lumpur Tel (60) Fax (60) INDONESIA PT Phillip Securities Indonesia ANZ Tower Level 23B, Jl Jend Sudirman Kav 33A, Jakarta 10220, Indonesia Tel (62) Fax: (62) FRANCE King & Shaxson Capital Ltd. 3rd Floor, 35 Rue de la Bienfaisance Paris France Tel (33) Fax : (33) AUSTRALIA PhillipCapital Australia Level 37, 530 Collins Street Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia Tel: (61) Fax: (61) INDIA PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited No. 1, C Block, 2 nd Floor, Modern Center, Jacob Circle, K. K. Marg, Mahalaxmi Mumbai Tel: (9122) Fax: (9122) HONG KONG Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd 11/F United Centre 95 Queensway Hong Kong Tel (852) Fax: (852) CHINA Phillip Financial Advisory (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. No 550 Yan An East Road, Ocean Tower Unit 2318 Shanghai Tel (86) Fax: (86) UNITED KINGDOM King & Shaxson Ltd. 6th Floor, Candlewick House, 120 Cannon Street London, EC4N 6AS Tel (44) Fax: (44) SRI LANKA Asha Phillip Securities Limited Level 4, Millennium House, 46/58 Navam Mawatha, Colombo 2, Sri Lanka Tel: (94) Fax: (94) of 6
6 Disclosures and Disclaimers PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. has three independent equity research groups: Institutional Equities, Institutional Equity Derivatives and Private Client Group. This report has been prepared by Institutional Equities Group. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary at times with the views, estimates, rating, target price of the other equity research groups of PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. This report is issued by PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. which is regulated by SEBI. PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. is a subsidiary of Phillip (Mauritius) Pvt. Ltd. References to "PCIPL" in this report shall mean PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd unless otherwise stated. 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Ltd. or any of its group/associate/affiliate companies do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Any opinions expressed reflect judgments at this date and are subject to change without notice Important: These disclosures and disclaimers must be read in conjunction with the research report of which it forms part. Receipt and use of the research report is subject to all aspects of these disclosures and disclaimers. Additional information about the issuers and securities discussed in this research report is available on request. Certifications: The research analyst(s) who prepared this research report hereby certifies that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analyst s personal views about all of the subject issuers and/or securities, that the analyst have no known conflict of interest and no part of the research analyst s compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views or recommendations contained in this research report. The Research Analyst certifies that he /she or his / her family members does not own the stock(s) covered in this research report. Independence: PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. has not had an investment banking relationship with, and has not received any compensation for investment banking services from, the subject issuers in the past twelve (12) months, and PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd does not anticipate receiving or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from the subject issuers in the next three (3) months. PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd is not a market maker in the securities mentioned in this research report, although it or its affiliates may hold either long or short positions in such securities. PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd does not hold more than 1% of the shares of the company(ies) covered in this report. Suitability and Risks: This research report is for informational purposes only and is not tailored to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular requirements of any individual recipient hereof. Certain securities may give rise to substantial risks and may not be suitable for certain investors. Each investor must make its own determination as to the appropriateness of any securities referred to in this research report based upon the legal, tax and accounting considerations applicable to such investor and its own investment objectives or strategy, its financial situation and its investing experience. The value of any security may be positively or adversely affected by changes in foreign exchange or interest rates, as well as by other financial, economic or political factors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance or results. Sources, Completeness and Accuracy: The material herein is based upon information obtained from sources that PCIPL and the research analyst believe to be reliable, but neither PCIPL nor the research analyst represents or guarantees that the information contained herein is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing on this material and are subject to change without notice. Furthermore, PCIPL is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Copyright: The copyright in this research report belongs exclusively to PCIPL. All rights are reserved. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. No reprinting or reproduction, in whole or in part, is permitted without the PCIPL s prior consent, except that a recipient may reprint it for internal circulation only and only if it is reprinted in its entirety. Caution: Risk of loss in trading in can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether trading is appropriate for you in light of your experience, objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. For U.S. persons only: This research report is a product of PhillipCapital (India) Pvt Ltd. which is the employer of the research analyst(s) who has prepared the research report. 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If the recipient of this report is not a Major Institutional Investor as specified above, then it should not act upon this report and return the same to the sender. Further, this report may not be copied, duplicated and/or transmitted onward to any U.S. person, which is not the Major Institutional Investor. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a 6 of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by the SEC in order to conduct certain business with Major Institutional Investors, PhillipCapital (India) Pvt Ltd. has entered into an agreement with a U.S. registered broker dealer, Marco Polo Securities Inc. ("Marco Polo").Transactions in securities discussed in this research report should be effected through Marco Polo or another U.S. registered broker dealer PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. Registered office: 2nd Floor, C Block, Modern Centre, Mahalaxmi, Mumbai of 6
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