INTRODUCTION TO MACRO ECONOMICS. Zoubida SAMLAL - MBA, CFA Member, PHD candidate for HBS program

Transcription

1 INTRODUCTION TO MACRO ECONOMICS Zoubida SAMLAL - MBA, CFA Member, PHD candidate for HBS program

2 ECONOMICS Why do people study economics? Many study it because they hope to make money. Some worry that they will be considered illiterate if they cannot understand the difference between supply and demand. Others are interested in learning how computers and the information revolution are shaping our society or why the inequality in the distribution of income has risen so sharply in recent years.

3 ECONOMICS The study of how the forces of supply and demand allocate scarce resources. Subdivided into microeconomics, which examines the behavior of firms, consumers and the role of government; and macroeconomics, which looks at inflation, unemployment, industrial production, and the role of government.

4 ECONOMICS MICRO-ECONOMICS MACRO-ECONOMICS

5 MACRO-ECONOMICS Macroeconomics is a branch of economics that deals with the performance,structure, and behavior of a national or regional economy as a whole.

6 USES OF MACRO-ECONOMICS The study of macroeconomics is imp as it tell us how the economy as a whole works. We cannot understanding or derive the laws governing macroeconomic variables such as national income total employment general price level by studding micro-eco decision of consumers firms and industries. What is true in case of an individual firm or industry may not be true for the economy as a whole

7 MACROECONOMIC CONCERNS Three of the major concerns of macroeconomics are Output growth Unemployment Inflation and deflation

8 MACROECONOMIC CONCERNS Output Growth business cycle The cycle of short-term ups and downs in the economy. aggregate output The total quantity of goods and services produced in an economy in a given period. recession A period during which aggregate output declines. Conventionally, a period in which aggregate output declines for two consecutive quarters. depression A prolonged and deep recession.

9 MACROECONOMIC CONCERNS Output Growth expansion or boom The period in the business cycle from a trough up to a peak during which output and employment grow. contraction, recession, or slump The period in the business cycle from a peak down to a trough during which output and employment fall.

10 MACROECONOMIC CONCERNS Output Growth FIGURE 5.1 A Typical Business Cycle In this business cycle, the economy is expanding as it moves through point A from the trough to the peak. When the economy moves from a peak down to a trough, through point B, the economy is in recession.

11 MACROECONOMIC CONCERNS Unemployment unemployment rate The percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. Inflation and Deflation inflation An increase in the overall price level. hyperinflation A period of very rapid increases in the overall price level. deflation A decrease in the overall price level.

12 SUPPLY AND DEMAND Since we are convinced now that trading goods and services makes people better off, the next step is to understand how markets- places or situations in which people interact and trade- are theorized to operate. We ll use the example of gold jewelry to develop a model for demand and supply. The model, in its graphical representation, can also demonstrate how different events can affect the demand and supply for gold jewelry.

13 The Law of Demand Any phonetic resemblance to The Law of The Man is purely a linguistic artifact of the English language. The Law of Demand (aka Theory of Demand) simply states that as prices of things rise, people buy less. This should not be exciting, as you have probably operated according to this law all of your life. Example on the board of individual and market demands

14 Aggregate Demand for Goods & Services Aggregate demand (AD) curve: indicates the various quantities of domestically produced goods and services that purchasers are willing to buy at different price levels. The AD curve slopes downward to the right, indicating an inverse relationship between the amount of goods and services demanded and the price level.

15 Aggregate Demand Curve Price Level P 1 P 2 A reduction in the price level will increase the quantity of goods & services demanded. Y 1 Y 2 AD Goods & Services (real GDP) As illustrated here, when the general price level in the economy declines from P 1 to P 2, the quantity of goods and services purchased will increase from Y 1 to Y 2.

16 Price Level P 1 P 2 A reduction in the price level will increase the quantity of goods & services demanded. Y 1 Y 2 AD Goods & Services (real GDP) Other things constant, a lower price level will increase the wealth of people holding the fixed quantity of money, lead to lower interest rates, and make domestically produced goods cheaper relative to foreign goods. Each of these factors tends to increase the quantity of goods & services purchased at the lower price level.

17 The Law of Supply From the producers perspective, the higher the market price of a good happens to be, the more they re willing to sell. Continue the example on the board of individual and market supplies. Factors that can affect shifts in supply include input prices, technology, expectations, etc

18 Aggregate Supply Curve Price Level economics AS (P 100 ) P 105 P 100 An increase in the price level will increase the quantity supplied in the short run. P 95 Y 1 Y 2 Y 3 Goods & Services (real GDP) The ASC shows the relationship between the price level and the quantity supplied of goods & services by producers.

19 Price Level economics AS (P 100 ) P 105 P 100 An increase in the price level will increase the quantity supplied in the short run. P 95 Y 1 Y 2 Y 3 Goods & Services (real GDP) In the short-run, firms will expand output as the price level increases because higher prices improve profit margins since many components of costs will be temporarily fixed as the result of prior longterm commitments.

20 Components of the Macroeconomy Macroeconomics focuses on four groups. To see the big picture, it is helpful to divide the participants in the economy into four broad groups: (1) households, (2) firms, (3) the government, and (4) the rest of the world.

21 Four Key Markets Coordinate the Circular Flow of Income Goods and Services market Resource market Loanable Funds market Foreign Exchange market

22 Components of Macroeconomy The Three Market Arenas Another way of looking at the ways households, firms, the government, and the rest of the world relate to each other is to consider the markets in which they interact. We divide the markets into three broad arenas: (1) the goods-and-services market, (2) the labor market, and (3) the money (financial) market.

23 The Three Market Arenas Components of the Macroeconomy Goods-and-Services Market Firms supply to the goods-and-services market. Households, the government, and firms demand from this market. Labor Market In this market, households supply labor and firms and the government demand labor.

24 Components of Macroeconomy The Three Market Arenas Money Market Households supply funds to this market in the expectation of earning income in the form of dividends on stocks and interest on bonds. Firms, the government, and the rest of the world also engage in borrowing and lending which is coordinated by financial institutions.

25 Components of Macroeconomy The Three Market Arenas Money Market Treasury bonds, notes, and bills Promissory notes issued by the federal government when it borrows money. corporate bonds Promissory notes issued by firms when they borrow money. shares of stock Financial instruments that give to the holder a share in the firm s ownership and therefore the right to share in the firm s profits. dividends The portion of a firm s profits that the firm pays out each period to its shareholders.

26 All of the following are debt instruments, or promissory notes issued by a borrower, except one. Which one? a. Treasury bonds. b. Treasury notes. c. Treasury bills. d. Corporate Stocks. e. Corporate bonds.

27 27 of 36 All of the following are debt instruments, or promissory notes issued by a borrower, except one. Which one? a. Treasury bonds. b. Treasury notes. c. Treasury bills. d. Corporate Stocks. e. Corporate bonds.

28 Four Key Markets Goods and Services Market: Businesses supply goods & services in exchange for sales revenue. Households, investors, governments, and foreigners (net exports) demand goods. Resource Market: Highly aggregated market where business firms demand resources and households supply labor and other resources in exchange for income.

29 Loanable Funds Market: Coordinates actions of borrowers and lenders. Foreign Exchange Market: Coordinates the actions of Americans that demand foreign currency (in order to buy things abroad) and foreigners that supply foreign currencies in exchange for dollars (so they can buy things from Americans).

30 The Circular Flow Diagram Four key markets coordinate the circular flow of income. The resource market coordinates the actions of businesses demanding resources and households supplying them in exchange for income. The goods & services market coordinates the demand for and supply of domestic production (GDP). The foreign exchange market brings the purchases (imports) from foreigners into balance with the sales (exports plus net inflow of capital) to them. The loanable funds market brings net household saving and the net inflow of foreign capital into balance with the borrowing of businesses and governments.

31 Which of the following statements is correct? a. Macroeconomics examines the behavior of individual industries. b. Both macroeconomics and microeconomics are concerned with the decisions of households and firms. c. Microeconomists look for macroeconomic foundations to explain why most markets arrive at equilibrium. d. All of the above.

32 Which of the following statements is correct? a. Macroeconomics examines the behavior of individual industries. b. Both macroeconomics and microeconomics are concerned with the decisions of households and firms. c. Microeconomists look for macroeconomic foundations to explain why most markets arrive at equilibrium. d. All of the above.

33 For economists, the main measure of how an economy is doing is: a. Aggregate output. b. Aggregate employment. c. The aggregate price level. d. The growth rate of the population.

34 For economists, the main measure of how an economy is doing is: a. Aggregate output. b. Aggregate employment. c. The aggregate price level. d. The growth rate of the population.

35 Components of the Macroeconomy The Role of the Government in the Macroeconomy fiscal policy Government policies concerning taxes and spending. monetary policy The tools used by the Federal Reserve to control the quantity of money, which in turn affects interest rates. 35 of 36

36 A Brief History of Macroeconomics Great Depression The period of severe economic contraction and high unemployment that began in 1929 and continued throughout the 1930s. fine-tuning The phrase used by Walter Heller to refer to the government s role in regulating inflation and unemployment. stagflation A situation of both high inflation and high unemployment. 36 of 36

37 The U.S Economy Since 1970 John Maynard Keynes Much of the framework of modern macroeconomics comes from the works of John Maynard Keynes, whose General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money was published in 1936.

38 CASE STUDY : BUDHIST ECONOMY