Macroeconomics 1 Lecture 11: ASAD model

Transcription

1 Macroeconomics 1 Lecture 11: ASAD model Dr Gabriela Grotkowska

2 Lecture objectives difference between short run & long run aggregate demand aggregate supply in the short run & long run see how model of aggregate supply and demand can be used to analyze short-run and long-run effects of shocks slide 2

3 Percent change from previous quarter, at annual rate Real GDP Growth in the U.S., Average growth rate = 3.4% slide 3

4 Time horizons Long run: Prices are flexible, respond to changes in supply or demand Short run: many prices are sticky at some predetermined level The economy behaves much differently when prices are sticky.

5 In Classical Macroeconomic Theory Output is determined by the supply side: supplies of capital, labor technology Changes in demand for goods & services (C, I, G ) only affect prices, not quantities. Complete price flexibility is a crucial assumption, so classical theory applies in the long run. slide 6

6 When prices are sticky output and employment also depend on demand for goods & services, which is affected by fiscal policy (G and T ) monetary policy (M ) other factors, like exogenous changes in C or I. slide 7

7 The model of aggregate demand and supply the paradigm that most mainstream economists & policymakers use to think about economic fluctuations and policies to stabilize the economy shows how the price level and aggregate output are determined shows how the economy s behavior is different in the short run and long run slide 8

8 Aggregate demand The aggregate demand curve shows the relationship between the price level and the quantity of output demanded. It may be derived from Quantity Theory of Money. It may be developed from Keynesian Cross. slide 9

9 The downward-sloping AD curve An increase in the price level causes a fall in real money balances (M/P ), causing a decrease in the demand for goods & services. P AD slide 10

10 Shifting the AD curve An increase in the money supply shifts the AD curve to the right. P AD 1 AD 2 slide 11

11 Aggregate Supply in the Long Run Recall from classical model: In the long run, output is determined by factor supplies and technology F ( K, L) is the full-employment or natural level of output, the level of output at which the economy s resources are fully employed. Full employment means that unemployment equals its natural rate. slide 12

12 Aggregate Supply in the Long Run Recall classical model: In the long run, output is determined by factor supplies and technology F ( K, L) Full-employment output does not depend on the price level, so the long run aggregate supply (LRAS) curve is vertical: slide 13

13 The long-run aggregate supply curve The LRAS curve is vertical at the fullemployment level of output. P LRAS slide 14

14 Long-run effects of an increase in M In the long run, this increases the price level P 2 P 1 P LRAS An increase in M shifts the AD curve to the right. AD 1 AD 2 but leaves output the same. slide 15

15 Aggregate Supply in the Short Run In the real world, many prices are sticky in the short run. For now, we assume that all prices are stuck at a predetermined level in the short run and that firms are willing to sell as much at that price level as their customers are willing to buy. Therefore, the short-run aggregate supply (SRAS) curve is horizontal: slide 16

16 The short run aggregate supply curve The SRAS curve is horizontal: The price level is fixed at a predetermine d level, and firms sell as much as buyers demand. P P SRAS slide 17

17 Short-run effects of an increase in M In the short run when prices are sticky, P an increase in aggregate demand P SRAS AD 1 AD 2 causes output to rise. 1 2 slide 18

18 From the short run to the long run Over time, prices gradually become unstuck. When they do, will they rise or fall? In the short-run equilibrium, if then over time, the price level will rise fall remain constant This adjustment of prices is what moves the economy to its long-run equilibrium. slide 19

19 The SR & LR effects of M > 0 A = initial equilibrium P LRAS B = new short-run eq m after Fed increases M P 2 C P A B SRAS AD 2 C = long-run equilibrium 2 AD 1 slide 20

20 How shocking!!! shocks: exogenous changes in aggregate supply or demand Shocks temporarily push the economy away from full-employment. An example of a demand shock: exogenous decrease in velocity If the money supply is held constant, then a decrease in V means people will be using their money in fewer transactions, causing a decrease in demand for goods and services: slide 21

21 The effects of a negative demand shock The shock shifts AD left, causing output and employment to fall in the short run P LRAS Over time, prices fall and the economy moves down its demand curve toward full-employment. P P 2 B 2 A C SRAS AD 1 AD 2 slide 22

22 Supply shocks A supply shock alters production costs, affects the prices that firms charge. (also called price shocks) Examples of adverse supply shocks: Bad weather reduces crop yields, pushing up food prices. Workers unionize, negotiate wage increases. New environmental regulations require firms to reduce emissions. Firms charge higher prices to help cover the costs of compliance. (Favorable supply shocks lower costs and prices.) slide 23

23 CASE STUD: The 1970s oil shocks Early 1970s: OPEC coordinates a reduction in the supply of oil. Oil prices rose 11% in % in % in 1975 Such sharp oil price increases are supply shocks because they significantly impact production costs and prices. slide 24

24 CASE STUD: The 1970s oil shocks The oil price shock shifts SRAS up, causing output and employment to fall. P LRAS In absence of further price shocks, prices will fall over time and economy moves back toward full employment. P 2 P 1 B 2 A SRAS 2 SRAS 1 AD slide 25

25 CASE STUD: The 1970s oil shocks Predicted effects of the oil price shock: inflation output unemployment and then a gradual recovery. 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 12% 10% 8% 6% 0% 4% Change in oil prices (left scale) Inflation rate-cpi (right scale) Unemployment rate (right scale) slide 26

26 CASE STUD: The 1970s oil shocks 60% 14% Late 1970s: As economy was recovering, oil prices shot up again, causing another huge supply shock!!! 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 12% 10% 8% 6% 0% 4% Change in oil prices (left scale) Inflation rate-cpi (right scale) Unemployment rate (right scale) slide 27

27 CASE STUD: The 1980s oil shocks 1980s: A favorable supply shock-- a significant fall in oil prices. 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% As the model -20% would predict, -30% inflation and -40% unemployment fell: -50% Change in oil prices (left scale) Inflation rate-cpi (right scale) Unemployment rate (right scale) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% slide 28

28 Stabilization policy def: policy actions aimed at reducing the severity of short-run economic fluctuations. Example: Using monetary policy to combat the effects of adverse supply shocks: slide 29

29 Stabilizing output with monetary policy The adverse supply shock moves the economy to point B. P 2 P B LRAS SRAS 2 P 1 A SRAS 1 AD 1 2 slide 30

30 Stabilizing output with monetary policy But the Fed accommodates the shock by raising agg. demand. P 2 P B LRAS C SRAS 2 results: P is permanently higher, but remains at its full-employment level. P 1 2 A AD 1 AD 2 slide 31

31 Lecture summary 1. Long run: prices are flexible, output and employment are always at their natural rates, and the classical theory applies. Short run: prices are sticky, shocks can push output and employment away from their natural rates. 2. Aggregate demand and supply: a framework to analyze economic fluctuations slide 32

32 Lecture summary 3. The aggregate demand curve slopes downward. 4. The long-run aggregate supply curve is vertical, because output depends on technology and factor supplies, but not prices. 5. The short-run aggregate supply curve is horizontal, because prices are sticky at predetermined levels. slide 33

33 The Big Picture Keynesian Cross Theory of Liquidity Preference IS curve LM curve IS-LM model Explanation of short-run fluctuations Agg. demand curve Agg. supply curve Model of Agg. Demand and Agg. Supply slide 34

34 Thank you and see you next week!