Morning Trading Comments
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- Samuel Foster
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1 Friday, June 15, Morning Trading Comments SUMMARY OF TRADING VIEWS For the first time since a long time, European indices were able to rally without the USA. Very strong day for DAX, CAC and Euro STOXX 50 which should now challenge May highs. Also renewed weakness for the euro dollar after an unconvincing relief rally. A retest of the 1.15 area seems more likely in the near term. Yesterday s session was obviously encouraging for European equities and suggests that investors may have become too gloomy in the region. This is at least what yesterday s panic buying move suggests. Here is a very interesting chart! As you know, there has been a massive derating of European equities against the S&P 500 since May, especially when taking into account the USD rally. As you can see on the STOXX 600 / S&P 500 ratio (lower part of the chart), investors have not been so bullish on the USA relative to Europe since December In the past decades, the spread between these two regions has never widened so sharply in such a short period of time. Yesterday s recovery of European indices suggests that the gap may start to narrow. Let s see if this adjustment will come from a recovery of Europe, like in early 2017, or a correction of the S&P 500 index which is giving market timing sell signals (see yesterday s mail). CROSS ASSET EVENTS Ratio STOXX 600 in USD / S&P 500 back near December 2016 highs Technical Analysis Cyril BAUDRILLART, CFTe cyril.baudrillart@tradition.com
2 Friday, June 15, DETAILED TRADING OUTLOOK ON MAIN INDICES S&P 500 E-MINI FUTURE (ESM8) RESISTANCES 2792 / 2800 / 2815 SUPPORTS 2764 / Comments No significant downside acceleration following Wednesday s drop below 2780 support zone. PREFERRED CASE for next days The index moved slightly lower yesterday morning but made a strong recovery back above 2780 in the afternoon. This event suggests that bulls are still buying the dips. The index may try to challenge the 2800 area in the near term. EURO STOXX 50 FUTURE (VGM8) RESISTANCES 3550 / 3576 / 3600 SUPPORTS 3500 / 3460 / 3420 Comments Powerful breakout above the 3500 resistance zone. PREFERRED CASE for next days Very strong upside acceleration after the ECB yesterday. The index easily broke above the 3500 area and quickly reached next resistance at After two dull weeks, the index indeed chose to break out, which probably surprised a lot of traders and obviously trigger a squeeze. The index will preferably stay above 3500 to confirm yesterday s break whilst next challenge for bulls will be the test of May highs around 3580.
3 Friday, June 15, DAX 30 FUTURE (GXM8) RESISTANCES / / SUPPORTS / / Comments Strong upside breakout above the resistance zone discussed yesterday. PREFERRED CASE for next days Yesterday s breakout obviously improved the ST outlook with the 60-min Point & Figure chart giving a triple-top buy signals with numerous upside targets available between and or even higher (13720/13800). In the near term, watch the area as a potential resistance zone whilst is becoming key support. DAILY SCREENING OF EUROPEAN EQUITIES (STOXX 600) TREND FOLLOWING IDEAS Upside breakouts Bureau Veritas, Rolls-Royce Holdings, Tele2 Downside breakouts - TRADING BUY Near 200-day MAs WH Smith, A2A Perfected TD setup 9 Buy Merck KGaA Oversold - TRADING SELL Perfected TD setup 9 Sell Aareal Bank Overbought - CONTRARIAN TRADING IDEAS See all charts in next pages
4 Friday, June 15, TREND FOLLOWING IDEAS WITHIN STOXX 600 INDEX Upside breakouts BVI FP Equity : Bureau Veritas SA RR/ LN Equity : Rolls-Royce Holdings PLC TEL2B SS Equity : Tele2 AB
5 Friday, June 15, CONTRARIAN TRADING BUY IDEAS WITHIN STOXX 600 INDEX Daily Perfected Setup 9 Buy signals MRK GY Equity : Merck KGaA Stocks back on 200-day MA SMWH LN Equity : WH Smith PLC A2A IM Equity : A2A SpA
6 Friday, June 15, CONTRARIAN TRADING SELL IDEAS WITHIN STOXX 600 INDEX Daily Perfected Setup 9 Sell ARL GY Equity : Aareal Bank AG
7 Friday, June 15, Technical Analysis Equity Sales Cyril BAUDRILLART Cyril.baudrillart@tradition.com Methodology All technical indicators used in this publication are based on historical prices broadcasted by Bloomberg. Several types of indicators are used in this report such as Bollinger Bands, Oscillators (RSI, MACD), Point & Figure charts, Ichimoku, Keltner Bands and other technical analysis tools. More details on how to interpret and use these tools are available upon request. Market timing indicators developed by Tom DeMark are also used in this report. The DeMark Indicators are a registered trademark of DeMark Analytics, LLC. Please note that all the content shown are my personal views and based on my own interpretation of the DeMark Indicators using the DeMark Service for Bloomberg. Please visit for more information. Disclaimer Any investments or securities referred to in communications between us ( Investments ) may involve significant risks and not necessarily be suitable for all investors. Such risk may involve, without limitation, market risk, high volatility, credit and default risk, illiquidity, currency risk and interest rate risk. There can be no assurance that the Investments will achieve their investment objective and as a consequence an investor may in certain circumstances lose their entire investment. Any potential investor should ensure they understand all of the risks associated with these Investments, including any legal, tax, accounting and other business considerations. Investors are deemed to have sufficient knowledge, experience and access to appropriate professional advice to assess the suitability and risks of an investment in these Investments. TFD will not be liable whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of the information relating to the Investments ( Information ) or any omission by TFD in respect of such Investments. While every effort has been made to verify the accuracy of Information, including any valuations, opinions or estimates, no representation or warranty is made as to its validity, timeliness, completeness, accuracy or reliability and it should not be relied upon as such. All Information is subject to change without notice. In producing all Information, TFD is not acting in any capacity whatsoever as a financial adviser or fiduciary to potential investors. Potential investors must consult with their own legal, regulatory, tax, business, investment, financial and accounting advisors as deemed necessary. No provision of information regarding Investments shall constitute an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or to participate in any particular trading strategy. This document is directed at Eligible Counterparties and Professional Clients as defined by the FCA. This document is not for distribution to nor should it be relied upon by Retail Clients as defined by the FCA. This document is not intended for distribution to, or use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to any applicable law or regulation. The investments referred to in this document are not at any time to be offered, sold, resold or delivered, directly or indirectly, in the United States or to US persons. This document may not be distributed in the United States. Please note that, for business or compliance reasons, we may monitor and read s sent or received using our servers or equipment. TFD hereby reserves all rights in the Information and you may not disseminate the Information without prior approval.
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