Marketplus Monthly market outlook

Transcription

1 Asset Allocation Marketplus Monthly market outlook 1

2 Contents Contents Asset Allocation Let your cash go to work 3 Funds in focus 5 Fund Selection List 7 2

3 Asset Allocation Let your cash go to work After a lengthy period in which the markets consolidated, the equity markets have managed to throw off the sideways trend, thanks to positive news from the corporate sector. The cyclical upswing, which appears to be gradually materialising, should spur the stock market rally until year-end. We would use the liquidity accumulated last month from reducing the government bond allocation to build out the equity and commodities position further. Although corporate bonds have very little potential left, in our opinion, falling credit spreads should more than offset the rise in long-term interest rates. Review Asset allocation: Build out equity position further Stock markets complete consolidation phase After the weaker-than-expected US labour market data, uncertainty among investors flared up again at the beginning of Q3. Instead of better sentiment indicators or less negative macro data, the market was looking for hard facts. These came earlier than expected in the form of the Q2 corporate earnings reports. The figures published thus far show that while sales have tumbled dramatically in some cases, the earnings declines were on average less pronounced than feared. Buoyed by these positive surprises, the equity markets have managed to detach themselves from their sideways trend. underweighted overweighted Source: Sarasin Cash Bonds Equities Alternative Equity markets scale new annual highs Asset allocation Profit from upswing Given that our forecast of a cyclical upswing in H2 appears to be gradually materialising, we have reduced our money market positions and are investing the liquidity in assets with a higher expected return. We have increased our equities overweighting and are building out the portfolio s commodities position. With respect to bonds, corporate bonds should continue to perform well. Convertible bonds show the greatest potential, however, because they stand to additionally profit from the projected rally in equities. Source: Datastream, data as of Macro outlook Regional discrepancies Initial GDP data for Q confirm the picture painted by the preliminary indicators. Whereas various Asian economies (e.g. Singapore and Korea) already returned to a growth path in Q2, Europe (e.g. the UK) is still in a contraction phase. However, the latest ifo business climate for Germany fans hopes that the European economy will also start to expand in Q3. In the USA, the much-needed destocking process should soon be complete. We expect a new inventory cycle to get underway in the coming months, which should lead to a powerful upturn before year-end. Thus, all the major economies should return to a growth trajectory in Q4. This should mark the end of the global recession. Bond strategy Favour convertible bonds Within bonds, we continue to focus on the investment-grade corporate bond segment. Although credit spreads have already recorded a steep decline and most of the rally expected at the beginning of the year is probably over, a further decrease in risk aversion should lead to lower credit spreads. We expect this effect will continue to more than offset the rise in long-term interest rates, which is squeezing prices. Government bonds, however, will suffer under the interest rate increase and should be avoided. In the bond universe, convertible bonds show the greatest potential. They profit not only from the decline in credit spreads but also from higher equity prices, thanks to the built-in option component. 3

4 Asset Allocation Currencies USA: Equity market on a similar road to recovery as 2003 US dollar could recover soon The US dollar could remain under pressure in the interim in Q3 2009, although our model signals a recovery already in Q The cyclical upswing in the USA should underpin the US dollar and weaken the euro in return. The euro should firm against the Swiss franc, however. The Swiss National Bank pursues an active monetary policy and welcomes a weak Swiss franc as a means of deflecting potential deflationary threats. Hence, CHF investors should find it worth their while holding a substantial share of their assets in foreign currencies. Source: Datastream Equity strategy Great potential until year-end So far, the interesting aspect of the current earnings reporting season is not so much that the results are not quite as bad as feared but that several leading companies (e.g. Intel and Caterpillar) have raised their guidance for H2. Given this news, forward-looking earnings estimates are expected to pick up as well and, thus, give the equity rally some fundamental support. Based on the powerful cyclical recovery predicted by us, we expect the equity markets to take a similar path to the one followed in 2003, and we therefore see clear upside potential (see chart). We continue to concentrate our regional focus on the emerging markets. These markets are still attractively valued and are trading at a discount to the MSCI World Index. Besides emerging market countries, other interesting equities include companies that have a strong position in growth markets and can take advantage of strong operating leverage to boost earnings significantly in an upswing. We believe insurers, which are inexpensive and stand to profit from the decline in risk aversion, have great potential. Alternative assets Overweight commodities The cyclical upswing should also help to drive commodity prices still higher. The supply and demand trend should have a particularly positive impact on energy and base metal prices over the next few months. We see the price setback at the beginning of the third quarter as an opportunity to increase the portfolio s commodities weighting. We retain our cautious stance toward the real estate segment, despite initial signs of a stabilisation in the major real estate markets (the USA and UK). 4

5 Funds in focus BGF Latin American Fund Investment Strategy The BGF Latin American Fund invests in companies located in South America. It is actively managed and aims to outperform its benchmark consistently. The Management is index aware, but not index driven. The highest exposure is allocated to Brazil (more than 60 %), followed by Mexico and Chile. Performance (See notes on page 15) Fidelity Funds South East Asia Fund Investment Strategy The Fidelity Funds South East Asia Fund invests in companies located in the South East Asia region. It is actively managed and aims to outperform the benchmark and peer group over the long term. The Manager is a growth-oriented investor and focuses on companies with above-average earnings growth relative to their sector or the market. The fund s performance may deviate substantially from the benchmark index, since the Manager is not restricted to the benchmark. Performance (See notes on page 15) Source: Datastream Portfolio Split The portfolio contains roughly stocks. The weighting in each holding is limited to 10 % maximum. 100 % of the fund s assets are in local South American currencies. The fund, however, is available in US Dollars or Euro, both unhedged. Current Fund Data and Information Source: Datastream Portfolio Split The fund manager does not aim to hold a specific number of stocks in the portfolio. He may invest in large, mid and small cap stocks. China, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong are the highest weighted countries in the fund. Share price Fund size in millions Domicile Company & Portfolio Management ISIN Lux BlackRock LU Swiss Sec.No Currency Status USD Out of Scope Launch date Management Fee,p.a. ( %) 1.75 TER, p.a. ( %) 1.92 Dividend payment date Payment 2008 Reference Index Source: Datastream None MSCI Latin America Legal Representatives in Switzerland BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited (London), Zurich Branch, Dreikönigstrasse 31a, CH-8002 Zurich Paying Agent JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association, Columbus, Zurich Branch, Dreikoenigstrasse 21, CH-8002 Zurich The prospectus and simplified prospectus are available free of charge from BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited (London), Zurich Branch, Dreikönigstrasse 31a, CH-8002 Zurich Current Fund Data and Information Share price 4.50 Fund size in millions Domicile Company & Portfolio Management ISIN Lux Fidelity LU Swiss Sec.No Currency Status USD Out of Scope Launch date Management Fee,p.a. ( %) 1.50 TER, p.a. ( %) 2.01 Dividend payment date Payment 2008 Reference Index Source: Datastream None MSCI AC FE Legal Representatives in Switzerland Fortis Foreign Fund Services AG, Rennweg 57, P.O. Box, CH-8023 Zurich Paying Agent Fortis Banque (Suisse) S.A., Zurich branch, Rennweg 57, CH-8023 Zurich The prospectus and simplified prospectus are available free of charge from Fortis Foreign Fund Services AG, Rennweg 57, P.O. Box, CH-8023 Zurich 5

6 Funds in focus Henderson Horizon Pan European Equity Fund Investment Strategy The Henderson Horizon Pan European Equity Fund invests in a focused portfolio of Europe s most promising growth companies. It is actively managed and aims to outperform its benchmark consistently. The fund tends to follow a buy and hold approach that aims to identify companies with good long-term growth prospects and maintain these holdings for as long as they continue to deliver the expected levels of earnings per share (EPS) and dividend growth. Performance (See notes on page 15) Source: Datastream Portfolio Split It is a focused fund with no more than 60 positions in the portfolio. The minimum weighting is 1 % in each holding. It is very unlikely to have a position much higher than 5 %. The Manager is not bound to the fund s reference index. Current Fund Data and Information Share price Fund size in millions Domicile Company & Portfolio Management ISIN Lux Henderson LU Swiss Sec.No Currency Status EUR Out of Scope Launch date Management Fee,p.a. (%) 1.20 TER, p.a. (%) 2.03 Dividend payment date Payment 2008 Reference Index None MSCI Europe Source: Datastream Legal Representatives in Switzerland Fortis Foreign Fund Services AG, Rennweg 57, CH-8021 Zurich Paying Agent Fortis Banque (Suisse) S.A., Rennweg 57, CH-8021 Zurich The prospectus and simplified prospectus are available free of charge from Fortis Foreign Fund Services AG, Rennweg 57, CH-8021 Zurich 6

7 Fund Selection List Equity Funds Switzerland DWS Aktien Schweiz CHF % n.a. DE000DWS0D27 Annual DE n.a. SMI CHF 7.52 % 6.88 % Switzerland Small and Mid Caps Pictet (CH) Swiss Mid Small Cap P CHF % 0.85 % CH Annual CH Out SPI S&M Caps CHF % 3.45 % Germany DWS Zürich Invest Aktien Deutschland EUR % 0.86 % DE Annual DE Out MSCI Germany EUR 5.59 % 3.42 % Germany Small & Mid Caps CS EF (Lux) Small & Mid Cap Germany EUR % 9.02 % LU None LU Out MSCI Germany Small Cap EUR % 7.83 % Europe Fund/Index Currency Price YTD Perf. 3Y Perf. ann.. ISIN Distribution Domicile Oyster European Opportunities EUR % 9.87 % LU None LU Out Carmignac Grande Europe EUR % 6.49 % LU None LU n.a. MSCI Europe EUR % 8.47 % Europe Large Caps Henderson Pan European EF EUR % 4.73 % LU None LU Out FTSE World Europe EUR % 8.25 % Europe Small Caps JPMF Europe Small Cap A EUR % % LU Annual LU Out MSCI Europe Small Companies EUR % % France Fidelity Funds France A Euro EUR % 7.17 % LU Annual LU Out MSCI France EUR 7.65 % 8.41 % See notes on page 15 7

8 Fund Selection List Italy Fidelity Funds Italy A Euro EUR % % LU Annual LU Out MSCI Italy EUR 6.14 % % United Kingdom Threadneedle UK Select Fund GBP % 2.83 % GB Semi Ann. GB Out FTSE 100 GBP 3.93 % 3.97 % USA DWS (CH) US Equities USD % 8.76 % CH Irreg. CH Out S&P 500 Composite Index USD 9.33 % 6.15 % USA Large Caps Investec American Equity Fund USD % 5.28 % LU Semi Ann. LU Out S&P 500 Composite Index USD 9.33 % 6.15 % USA Small & Mid Caps Schroder ISF US S&M Caps USD % 0.68 % LU None LU Out MSCI USA S&M Cap USD % 7.39 % Japan Oyster Japan Opportunities Fund JPY % 9.52 % LU None LU Out Topix Index JPY % % China Fidelity Fund China Focus A USD % % LU Annual LU Out MSCI Emerging Markets China USD % % India JPMF India Fund A USD % 8.40 % LU Annual LU Out MSCI Emerging Markets India USD % % Latin America Blackrock Latin American Fund USD % % LU None LU Out MSCI EM Latin America USD % % See notes on page 15 8

9 Fund Selection List Global Equities Emerging Markets JPMF Emerging Markets Equity Fund USD % 5.15 % LU Annual LU Out MSCI Emerging Markets USD % 6.03 % Global Equities GAM Star Worldwide Equity 1 USD % n.a. IE00B0HF3974 None IE n.a. MSCI World USD % 7.84 % 1 Minimum Investment USD Bond Funds CHF Mid / Long Term Credit Suisse Bond Fund Dynamic CHF % 0.79 % CH Annual CH In Citigroup Swiss GBI 3 7 years CHF 3.16 % 4.48 % CHF Inflation Linked Credit Suisse Bond Fd Inflation Linked CHF % 0.72 % LU None LU In Citigroup Swiss GBI All Maturities CHF 2.40 % 4.14 % CHF Convertible Bonds hedged LODH Obliflex Convertible (CHF) P A CHF % 0.81 % LU None LU n.a. Not available EUR Mid / Long Term Pictet Funds Lux EUR Bonds EUR % 1.17 % LU None LU In Citigroup WGBI Europe 3 5 years EUR 5.05 % 4.88 % EUR Corporate Bonds Schroder ISF Euro Corporate Bond EUR n.a % 3.76 % LU None LU In Citigroup EuroBIG Corporate EUR % 4.00 % EUR Inflation Linked Credit Suisse Bond Fd Inflation Linked EUR % 2.77 % LU None LU In Citigroup WGBI Europe 3 5 years EUR 3.90 % 5.70 % See notes on page 15 9

10 Fund Selection List USD Mid / Long Term Schroder USD Bond Fund USD % 6.34 % LU None LU In Citigroup WGBI 3 5 years USD 1.14 % 8.25 % Global Bonds Templeton Global Total Return USD % % LU None LU In Citigroup WGBI 3 5 years USD 1.14 % 8.25 % Global Emerging Markets Bonds Threadneedle EM Bond Fund USD % 8.41 % GB Semi Ann. GB n.a. JPM EMBI GLB USD % 6.07 % Money Market Funds CHF Clariden Leu (Lie) MM Fund CHF CHF % n.a. LI None LI n.a. Citigroup 3 Months CHF CHF 0.38 % 2.06 % EUR Clariden Leu (Lie) MM Fund EUR EUR % n.a. LI None LI n.a. Citigroup 3 Months EUR EUR 1.15 % 3.86 % GBP JPML Sterling Liquidity Fund GBP % n.a. LU None LU Out Citigroup 3 Months GBP GBP 1.06 % 4.92 % USD Clariden Leu MM Fund USD USD % n.a. LI None LI n.a. Citigroup 3 Months USD USD 0.79 % 3.99 % Insurance Linked Investments CHF CAT Bond Clariden Leu (CH) Cat Bond Fund CHF CHF % 3.76 % CH Annual CH In Citigroup 3 Months CHF CHF 0.38 % 2.06 % See notes on page 15 10

11 Fund Selection List EUR CAT Bond Clariden Leu (CH) Cat Bond Fund EUR EUR % 5.44 % CH Annual CH In Citigroup 3 Months EUR EUR 1.15 % 3.86 % Asset Allocation Funds CHF Strategy Conservative Swisscanto (LU) Portfolio Fund Yield B CHF % 0.33 % LU None LU Out CHF Strategy Balanced Swisscanto PF Balanced B CHF % 2.50 % LU None LU Out CHF Strategy Growth Swisscanto PF Growth B CHF % 4.62 % LU None LU Out EUR Strategy Conservative UBS (Lux) SF Yield B EUR % 0.30 % LU None LU In EUR Strategy Balanced Swisscanto PF Balanced B EUR % n.a. LU None LU n.a. EUR Strategy Growth Swisscanto PF Growth B EUR % 4.35 % LU None LU Out USD Strategy Conservative JB Strategy Conservative B USD % 0.15 % LU None LU In USD Strategy Balanced UBS (Lux) SF Balanced USD B USD % 0.83 % LU None LU Out USD Strategy Growth CS Portfolio Fund Growth B USD % 3.38 % LU None LU Out See notes on page 15 11

12 Fund Selection List Sector Funds Energy Investec GSF Global Energy Fund USD % 2.02 % LU Semi Ann. LU Out MSCI Energy USD 9.32 % 2.81 % New Energy Pictet Fund Lux Clean Energy USD % n.a. LU None LU n.a. MSCI Energy USD 9.32 % 2.81 % Utilities ING Utilites Fund USD % 2.96 % LU None LU Out MSCI Utilities USD 5.67 % 0.17 % Family Business Kapitalfonds LK Family Business EUR % 0.47 % LU Annual LU n.a. MSCI Europe EUR % 8.47 % Financials CAAM Global Finance USD % % LU None LU n.a. MSCI World Financials USD % % Food LODH Nutrition Fund CHF % 7.00 % CH None CH In MSCI World Food Products CHF 5.02 % 3.54 % Water Pictet Funds Water P Cap EUR % 5.16 % LU None LU Out MSCI World Water Utilities EUR % % Health Care Global BGF World Health Science USD % 1.66 % LU None LU Out MSCI World Health Care USD 5.26 % 3.69 % See notes on page 15 12

13 Fund Selection List Health Care Europe Fortis Equity Health Care Europe EUR % 7.08 % LU None LU Out MSCI Europe Health Care EUR 7.01 % 6.70 % Biotech Pictet Funds Biotech P cap USD % 6.30 % LU None LU Out MSCI World Biotechnology USD 4.63 % 5.43 % Technology Europe JPMF Europe Technology Fund EUR % 5.95 % LU Annual LU Out MSCI Technology Europe EUR 7.71 % % Technology Global Henderson Global Technology Fund USD % 3.60 % LU None LU n.a. MSCI World Information Technology USD % 0.79 % Telecom Global Fidelity Funds Global Telecom Fund EUR % 2.19 % LU Annual LU Out FTSE Global Telecom Index EUR 1.51 % 2.99 % Telecom Europe Fortis Equity Telecom Europe EUR % 0.30 % LU None LU Out DJ EuroStoxx Telecom Europe EUR 1.87 % 5.22 % Mining BGF World Mining Fund USD % 0.99 % LU None LU Out MSCI World Metals & Mining USD % 0.44 % Gold Mines BGF World Gold Fund USD % 5.05 % LU None LU Out FTSE Gold Mines USD % 3.17 % Source: bank zweiplus ltd, Bloomberg See notes on page 15 Contact Patrik Kauffmann, Productmanagement, T +41 (0) , patrik.kauffmann@bankzweiplus.ch 13

14 Abbreviations A abs.ch ASW avg. bn bp corp. Div. yield or DY E EBIT EPS EV/EBITDA excl. FY GAAP GDP GNP gov. m M&A mavg MV/revenues n.a. p.a. P/B P/E R&D R.H. Scale ROE SAA TAA vs. yoy actual value absolute change asset swap spread average billion basis points corporate dividend yield estimate earnings before interest and taxes earnings per share enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation excluding financial year Generally Accepted Accounting Principles gross domestic product gross national product government million Mergers & Acquisitions moving average market value to revenues not available per annum price-to-book ratio price-to-earnings ratio Research & Development right hand scale return on equity Strategic Asset Allocation, long term strategy based on investment profiles Tactical Asset Allocation; short term strategy based on return/risk expectations versus year over year 14

15 Imprint Marketplus Monthly market outlook, Publisher bank zweiplus ltd, Bändliweg 20, CH-8048 Zurich, Source Bank Sarasin & Cie Ltd., Elisabethenstrasse 62, CH-4002 Basel Concept and Design Haus der Kommunikation AG, Identity & Design Subscription New subscriptions via to: Publication dates 12 online-issues a year in German and English under Note regarding performances Past performance does not guarantee future returns. The performance shown does not take account of any commissions and costs charged when subscribing and redeeming units. Important information This publication was compiled by bank zweiplus ltd (hereinafter referred to as bzp ) solely for information purposes. It is not the result of financial analyses, and the s on the Independence of Financial Research of the Swiss Bankers Association therefore, do not apply to this document. This publication was prepared with publicly assessable information and data ( the information ) that are deemed to be reliable and based on the respective designated source. Nevertheless, bzp assumes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any errors in this information constitute no basis for direct or indirect liability on the part of bzp. In particular, bzp assumes no responsibility for any changes in the opinions expressed herein, plans or details about products, the relevant strategies and the economic environment, as well as market, competitive or regulatory conditions, etc. Although bzp has done everything within its power to create a reliable publication, we cannot rule out that it may contain errors or is incomplete. Neither the Bank, nor its shareholders or employees, assumes any responsibility regarding the relevance of the opinions, assessments and conclusions conveyed herein. Despite the release of this publication in connection with an existing contractual relationship, any liability on the part of bzp is limited to gross negligence or willful intent only. Furthermore, bzp accepts no liability for any immaterial inaccuracies. In such case, any liability on the part of bzp is limited to an amount that would normally be expected. bzp explicitly accepts no liability for indirect damages. This publication does not constitute an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell securities or other specific financial products. Past performance of an investment is not indicative of its future trend. The value of investments and resulting realized returns are subject to increases as well as decreases. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that investors will, in every case, recoup all the amounts invested. International investments harbor currency risks in addition to risks relating to the political and economic uncertainties of other countries. The products mentioned in this publication are not suitable for all recipients. We recommend obtaining detailed information regarding the respective product, as well as consulting a professional advisor, prior to making an investment. Any investment decision necessitates thorough and diligent clarification and should not be carried out solely on the basis of this document. This publication is for personal use only and may not be redistributed. Fund Selection List: Investment/Performance We recommend that you obtain detailed information before taking any investment decision. Investments should be made on the basis of the current prospectus. Past performance is no guarantee of future trends. The performance shown does not take in account of any commissions and costs charged when subscribing and redeeming units. This document may not be distributed to any person outside the country, where you have received it. Should a person domiciled in another jurisdiction receive this report he/she must observe any applicable sales restrictions for the herein mentioned products. Copyright bank zweiplus ltd. All rights reserved. 0908_p_dk_10010_en 15