AYGAZ Investor Presentation. October 2011

Transcription

1 AYGAZ Investor Presentation October 2011

2 Table of Contents Aygaz Overview LPG from A to Z = AygaZ Aygaz as an Energy Player Strategies and Key Takeaways Financial Highlights Appendix Summary Financial Statements 1

3 AYGAZ; A Well Diversified Energy Holding Leader in its core business: Fully integrated LPG services #1 in Turkey, #5 in Europe Market leader since foundation 29% market share as Aygaz Group 1,6 m tons sales 2010 $3,1 b revenue th in top industrial enterprises of TR Diversified investments in energy Refinery Power generation Natural gas

4 Keeping its solid performance Strong financials; (Cons. in m$) YoYchange Revenue % EBITDA % EBITDA Margin 7% 10% 9% -3 Net Profit % Net Profit Margin 5% 8% 1% -3 Volume (000 tons) % Outstanding cash generation ability Solid financial position Strong contribution from participations 3

5 LPG from A to Z A yga Z

6 (m tons) LPG consumption is increasing in the world World LPG consumption Why LPG? Anytime+Anywhere Portable and versatile E Domestic Chemical-Refinery Industry Autogas Agriculture Mixtures of hydrocarbons in which butane or propane are predominant LPG market is supply oriented Supply is secure as LPG is extracted from related natural gas facilities or as refinery gases Sources of LPG production Abundant reserves-price advantage Diversity of supply sources Low GHG emission Natural Gas; 53% Crude oil; 47% *WLPGA Statistical Review of Global LP Gas Report,

7 (m tons) Turkish LPG Market is evolving 3,6 m tons, #2 in Europe 70 distribution companies First 6 players share 73% of the market Serving; 12 m houses 2,9 m cars Liberal market with regulatory body-emra LPG Consumption in Europe ,6 3,1 2,2 1,9 1,8 1,8 1,0 0,3 5,0 Turkish LPG market 68% 38% (000) tons % 46% 3% Evolving from cylinder to auto 29% EMRA LPG Sector Report 2010 WLPGA Statistical Review of Global LP Gas Report, 2010

8 Aygaz Volumes and Market Shares auto total cylinder EMRA LPG Sector Report July, 2011, Aygaz

9 (m ton) Turkish autogas market; growth story 2.5 m tons, #2 in the world Fuel distributors are main players 30% price advantage to gasoline 2.9 m cars in Turkey -2010E ~37% of passenger car park autogas stations ,5 TR Autogas Volumes 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 40% Price Advantage of Autogas TLPG Assocition Report, EMRA 20% 0% -20% -40% to Gasoline to Diesel Market share July 2011 Source: AYGAZ EMRA LPG Sector Report July,

10 Adaptation to change as market leader Long-term strategy builder Opet partnership LPG is core business unlike fuel distributors Pioneering R&D and innovation Brand power cultivated over 50 years Highest efficiency per station Aygaz autogas stations- Sep 11 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 24% 14% Market share vs number of stations share Market Share Number of Station Share Aygaz&Opet synergy leads autogas market Sales per station efficiency index 19% 19% 15% 12% 6% 27% 20% 11% Aygaz* Shell Gaz BP Gaz Totalgaz Milangaz İpragaz Petrol Ofisi Mogaz Other autogas market * July 2011 PETDER and EMRA data gasoline market * Aygaz solo figure 8

11 number of cars (000) Autogas market dynamics Conversion conversions per year conversion points $700 average cost OEM Guaranteed conversion provided by 12 car manufacturers (34% passenger car market share) including: Pay back in km * SMMT: The Society of Motor manufacturers & Traders CNG versus LPG comparison initial investment (x10 times) conversion cost (x2 times) range per tank (x1/3) longer tank refill time Cars converted to LPG (annual) Cumalative conversions Source: TURKSTAT; AYGAZ 9

12 (000) tons Turkish Cylinder market; always here Fragmented market; 70 players Contraction slowing down Potential growth in rural areas Conventional areas of use Residential (heating, bathroom, cooking) Commercial Camping New areas of use Leisure market (outside heating, barbecues) Forklift Market shares July 2011 EMRA LPG Sector Report July % 13% 10% 4% 8% Aygaz Urban Sales 58% 76% Turkey sales Aygaz Rural Sales 42% 24% Turkey sales Aygaz Urban 61% Rural 39% Aygaz Urban 47% Rural 53% Source: AYGAZ 10

13 Unique expertise in cylinder market Strong penetration points of sale Different brands for different segments Brand power 60% share in residential market Market maker CRM activities Innovative marketing approach Fully integrated production cycle; Gebze Plant Cylinders, gas appliances 11

14 Cylinder product family Residential Camping bathroom cooking Outside heating Barbecue heating 12

15 Bulk LPG Where natural gas infrastructure is infeasible Petrochemical sector started using LPG in Turkey Residential Commercial - Industrial Aygaz became first and only seller to the sector 13

16 Strong distribution & transportation network cylinder dealers/market total autogas stations/market total service trucks 200+ tanker trucks employees (Aygaz+dealers) Sep 2011 figures 14

17 Incomparable brand value Most preferred LPG brand in Turkey since its foundation 50 years = LPG in Turkey Best Brands 2010 by GFK Best Brand in LPG sector Best Brands 2010 by KalDer Best Brand in Cylinder LPG SAHA Ratings Corporate Governance Rating One of the most transparent companies in terms of corporate governance Listed in first 5 for; Ethical accountability by Corporate Social Responsibility Institute of Turkey Financially most transparent company by Sabancı University and Standard&Poor s Survey 15

18 Aygaz value chain Supplier Storage Autogas Station Bulk LPG Residential Customer Bulk LPG Commercial Customer Filling Cylinder Distribution Cylinder Gas Dealer Cylinder Gas Customer 16

19 Smart solutions for supply Flexibility creates added value Diversification supplier portfolio Primary access to supply info & market dynamics Other imports 45% Turkish LPG supply 2010 Tüpraş production 16% Tüpraş import 3% Aygaz import 36% Source: AYGAZ 17

20 Utilization of geographical advantage 24% 16% 2010 % of TR supply % of Aygaz supply 43% 38% 2% 2% MED 2% 4% 25% 38% 4% 2% 18

21 Sole fleet operator Anadoluhisarı Kuzguncuk Kandilli Kuleli Reduces logistics costs Gives flexibility in sourcing and inventory management Provides competitive advantage for Black Sea supply Total capacity: cbm* *2010 figure including C&O 19

22 Effective logistics infrastructure cbm fixed storage - 30% of TR cbm moving storage - 60% of TR tons filling capacity 28 plants all over Turkey

23 High logistics competency 3 different types of inventory management LPG Mix, Autogas, Propane Direct import to 5 different locations Operational excellence in primary transportation Best inventory turnover globally Inventory Turnover 22,5 12, ,5 9,5 1,7 Aygaz Lavera İpragaz Milangaz BP Total Houston Source: AYGAZ 21

24 Aygaz Key Takeaways Financial Strength Consistent Market Leader Brand Power Longterm Strategy Builder Diversifier & Portfolio Investor Strong Sales & Logistics Network 22

25 Portfolio Architecture LPGDC 24% 51% 25% 10% 25% 100% 99% 100% 100% Anadoluhisarı Kuzguncuk Kandilli Kuleli

26 LNG Distribution Transportation and regasification 250 industrial customers, 107MCM, 20% market share 2011 Planned sales : 126MCM Total natural gas market: 35-40BCM; LNG market: 0.5BCM CNG Distribution Antalya CNG plant / Capacity: 12MCM Sales: 3MCM Planned sales : 3.6MCM Pipeline Natural Gas Started in 2010; Sales: 66MCM 2011 Planned sales: 193MCM Strategies LNG import (near term) Pipeline Local Distribution 24

27 Entek Capacity - 305MW NGCC İzmit : 160MW Bursa : 143MW Sales composition : 52% PMUM & 48% trade & direct customers 157 Kocaeli Production and Sales Electricity prod. : Gwh Energy sales : Gwh Steam prod. : 122 Gwh Revenue : 401 m TL Strategies Aygaz has signed a partnership agreement with US based AES 49,62% stake in Entek sold for $136,5m Parties have equal voting power Expansion plans by jointly investing in coal, hydro, renewable & other NG fired power plant projects (greenfield or through acquisitions) 25

28 Our priorities Sustain LPG market leadership through Product differentiation and innovation for autogas Further penetration through new autogas stations Growth prospects for cylinder in rural Turkey Geographical diversification in neighbouring countries Offset impact of diminishing bulk LPG sales through Aygaz Doğalgaz penetration in natural gas Utilize and expand existing holding structure through close monitoring of profit generating opportunities Privatization in natural gas and electricity New investments (greenfield / acquisition) 26

29 (M TL) AYGAZ as an investment; 3500 AYGAZ Mcap ISE 100 (Indexed) Sustainable and long term cash generator 3000 Strong dividends m TL cash dividend paid during the last 3 years 125 m TL cash dividend paid for 2010 ISE Ticker : AYGAZ Shares outstanding : 300 m Free Float : 24% Aygaz intends to continue distributing dividends 27

30 Financial Highlights Net sales (m$) Gross Profit(m$) and GPM* % 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% % 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% EBITDA(m$) and EBITDA Margin* * bars: $ figures & lines: % figures * Instability due to FX(TRY/USD) fluctuation 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Net Profit(m$) and NPM*

31 Quarterly Financials Net Sales(m$) Gross Profit(m$) and GPM* % 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% EBITDA(m$) and EBITDA Margin* Net Profit (m$) and NPM* 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% % 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% * bars: $ figures & lines: % figures 29

32 Financial Highlights Equity (m$) and Debt Ratio* 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% * bars: $ figures & lines: % figures Net Cash (m$) Working Capital Trade Receivables Inventories Trade Payable Working Capital Dividend Payout 116% 66% 43% 32% 23% 11%

33 Contacts Gökhan Tezel, CFO Phone: Mehmet Özkan, Finance Manager Phone: Selin Sanver, Investor Relations Phone:

34 Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the company management s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by a variety of variables and changes in underlying assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially. Neither Aygaz nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other person shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this presentation. All Aygaz labelled data includes AYGAZ Group figures (Aygaz and Mogaz) unless otherwise stated. 32

35 Appendix

36 Income Statement Summary (m USD) Net Sales COGS (2.842) (1.534) (2.140) (2.400) (2.073) (2.770) Gross Profit Operating Profit Profit Before Tax Net Profit EBITDA GP margin 9% 15% 13% 13% 15% OP margin 2% 7% 5% 7% 8% 11% 5% PBT margin 3% 5% 13% 2% 10% 6% NP margin 2% 14% 14% 1% 8% EBITDA margin 5% 10% 8% 9% 10% 5% 7% 1

37 Balance Sheet Summary (m USD) Cash & Cash Eq Trade Receivables Inventories Participations Prop. Plant & Eq Financial Debt (158) (368) (281) (296) (289) (74) Trade Payable (111) (199) Total Equity ,338 Total Assets ,862 Fin.Debt / T. Assets 13% 22% 14% 18% 17% 4% Net Cash (94) 102 (198) (28) (18) 100 Working Capital

38 Income Statement Summary (million TL) Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 rq Q1 11/Q2 11 Net sales 1,064 1,070 1,227 1,303 1,253 1,241 16% -1% COGS ,094-1,148-1,148-1,126 17% -2% Gross profit % 10% Operating profit % -6% Profit before tax % -81% Net Profit % -83% EBITDA % -6% GP margin 10% 10% 11% 12% 8% 9% OP margin 5% 4% 6% 4% 3% 3% -1 - PBT margin 6% 5% 11% 3% 21% 4% NP margin 5% 4% 9% 2% 20% 3% EBITDA margin 7% 6% 7% 6% 5% 5% -1 -

39 Balance Sheet Summary (million TL) M 10 6M 10 9M M 11 6M 11 ry % Cash & Cash Equivalents % Trade Receivables % Inventories % Participations 1, ,007 1,007 1,081 1,136 1,180 1,206 1,186 10% Prop. Plant & Equipment % Financial Debt (327) (448) (435) (198) (199) (173) (111) (12) (14) -93% Trade Payables % Total Equity 1,418 1,474 1,757 1,797 1,812 1,927 2,014 2,132 2,148 19% Total Assets 2,294 2,465 2,604 2,510 2,523 2,631 2,804 2,799 2,745 9% Fin.Debt/ Tot. Assets 14% 18% 17% 8% 8% 7% 4% 0% 1% -7 Fin.Debt/ Tot.Equity 23% 30% 25% 11% 11% 9% 6% 1% 1% -10 Net Cash (Debt) (230) (42) (28) % Working Capital %