CRISIS: CHALLENGE AND OPPORTUNITY

Transcription

1 CRISIS: CHALLENGE AND OPPORTUNITY DEPUTY HEAD OF STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT S. PANKRATOV 1

2 Russian Gas Industry Experienced Stable Growth Despite Unstable Environment Length of High Pressure Pipelines, ths km Gas Production Wells Gas Production, bcm Natural Gas Export to Europe, bcm August August World Oil Crisis Break-up of the Soviet Union Russian Parliamentary Crisis Russian Financial Crisis Asian Financial Crisis World Financial Crisis EXPERIENCE CONFIDENCE RELIABILITY 2

3 Energy security providing HUGE RESOURCE PROFITABILITY EXISTING TECHNOLOGY & ECOSTANDARD 3

4 Natural gas reserves of Russian Federation Total resources 25 tcm Proved reserves Proved reserves 48 tcm GAZPROM s proved reserves SHARE RUSSIAN PROVED RESERVES IN WORLD 26% RESERVES REPLACEMENT RATIO >1 NEXT 1 YEARS 4

5 Energy effective in Russia: burried reserve 75 Russian primary energy consumption Transport Heating Gas Flaring mtoe % Total energy saving potential 296 mtoe Fuel production State institutions Agriculture Services, construction Apartment houses Power industry Industry BCM/Y GAS SAVING 5

6 Russian Unified Gas Supply System (UGSS) Gas fields in exploration and production Total length of gas pipelines, km Compressor stations (CS) Total compressor capacity, MMkW Underground storage facilities Average distanceof gas transportation through Russia, km

7 Fundamentals for Long-term Planning STRATEGIC PROGRAM FOR GAS BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT CONSERVATIVE PRICE FORECAST GAS DEMAND SCENARIOS SCENARIOS FOR PERSPECTIVE DEVELOPMENT Reliability Performability Sustainable development Achievement of Strategic Goals 7

8 Conservative Price Forecast 12 1 Optimistic forecast zone 8 $ 8 Brent ($ USA) 6 4 Real oil prices $ 6 $ 45 $ 35 Forecast zone for long-term planning 2 Nominal oil prices $ 45.5 (average value of real oil prices) Source: CERA, Gazprom s data 8

9 Energy efficiency and savings Global Energy Demand - energy demand; - changes in energy demand; - mid-term factors; - long-term factors. Population growth and rising standards of living ,5 % % Oil Gas Coal Hydro Nuclear Other Advantages of gas Large reserves Developed infrastructure Ecologically clean type of fuel GLOBAL GAS DEMAND WILL CONTINUE TO GROW 9

10 New Russian Energy Strategy 23 Primary Energy Resources 2 3,4 % 8 Energy Resources Export GDP Energy Intensity 15 4,4 % 7 Mtoe ,6 % 53,2 % 46,8 % 96,6 % 61,3 % 38,7 % Mtoe % 68 % 43 % 57 % DOUBLE 85*% DECREASE 43% Production Import Consumption Export Oil, oil products, coal and others Gas * To 25 year level Total Final Consumption Coal 18% Others 1% 53% 19% Oil GAS: VOLUME INCREASE, SHARE DECREASE Coal Others 14% 22% 19% 45% Oil 28 Gas 23 Gas 1

11 Scenarios for Gas Demand Europe, FSU and Baltic Countries LONGTERM CONTRACTS 6 4 Russia USA BASIC SCENARIO FOR GAS DEMAND North-East Asia COMPETITION

12 Changes in Projects Schedule Production from YAMAL MEGAPROJECT - Before Financial Crisis 28 - After

13 Major Projects Development - Main production regions - Current directions of supply - Perspective directions of supply - LNG Directions 13

14 Capital Expenditures Programs* Capital Expenditures (annual average) bln RR p.a Exploration Production Transportation Processing Others * within Unified Gas Supply System 5 25 Production Transportation 1% 1% 8% 6% New projects 8% 6% 4% Reconstruction 4% 2% 2% % %

15 OIL INCREASE Strategy Overview GAS INCREASE INCREASE INCREASE INCREASE NEW EXPORT ROUTES TO EXISTING MARKETS (LNG, PIPELINE) ELECTRICITY GENERATION NEW MARKETS IN ASIA AND N. AMERICA (LNG, PIPELINE) SPOT TRADING DOMESTIC DOMESTIC DOMESTIC DOMESTIC GAS ACCESS TO END HIGH-LEVEL LEVEL AND PETROCHEMICALS PETROCHEMICALS PETROCHEMICALS PETROCHEMICALS TRANS TRANS TRANS- TRANS TRANS TRANS TRANS MARKETING MARKETING MARKETING MARKETING MARKETING MARKETING MARKETING MARKETING PORTATION PORTATION PORTATION PORTATION PORTATION PORTATION PORTATION PORTATION & & UTILIZATION UTILIZATION UTILIZATION UTILIZATION UTILIZATION UTILIZATION UTILIZATION UTILIZATION SALES SALES SALES SALES SALES SALES SALES SALES MARKET DEVELOPMENT DEVELOPMENT DEVELOPMENT DEVELOPMENT CONSUMERS CONSUMERS CONSUMERS CONSUMERS IN EUROPE UNIFIED GAS SUPPLY SYSTEM EXPANSION EXPANSION EXPANSION EXPANSION 15 EXPLORATION EXPLORATION EXPLORATION EXPLORATION EXPLORATION EXPLORATION EXPLORATION EXPLORATION & DEVELOPMENT DIVERSIFICATIONS

16 GAZPROM provides energy security of Europe by Huge recourses Branched transporting infrastructure Adequate investments Diversified activity and product markets Partnering 16

17 Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared by OJSC Gazprom (the Company ), and comprises the slides for a presentation to investors concerning the Company. This presentation does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any shares or other securities representing shares in the Company, nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its presentation or distribution form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or investment decision. No reliance may be placed for any purposes whatsoever on the information contained in this presentation, or any other material discussed at any presentation or on its completeness, accuracy or fairness. The information in this presentation should not be treated as giving investment advice. Care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated in this presentation are accurate, and that the opinions expressed are fair and reasonable. However, the contents of this presentation have not been verified by the Company. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of the Company or any of its members, directors, officers or employees or any other person as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in or discussed at this presentation. None of the Company or any of their respective members, directors, officers or employees nor any other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The information in this presentation includes forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements include all matters that are not historical facts, statements regarding the Company s intentions, beliefs or current expectations concerning, among other things, the Company s results of operations, financial condition, liquidity, prospects, growth, strategies, and the industry in which the Company operates. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, including, without limitation, the risks and uncertainties to be set forth in the prospectus, because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. The Company cautions you that forward looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and that its actual results of operations, financial condition and liquidity and the development of the industry in which the Company operates may differ materially from those made in or suggested by the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. In addition, even if the Company s results of operations, financial condition and liquidity and the development of the industry in which the Company operates are consistent with the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation, those results or developments may not be indicative of results or developments in future periods. The information and opinions contained in this presentation are provided as at the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice. No person is under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. By attending the presentation you agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations. 17

18 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! 18