GEOG 401 Climate Change IPCC

Transcription

1 GEOG 401 Climate Change The IPCC IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Scientific body Intergovernmental organization of the UN IPCC is the leading body for the assessment of climate change FAQ 2. 1, Fi gure 1 1

2 Founding of IPCC Established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) UN General Assembly Resolution 43/53 6 December 1988 Prepare comprehensive review and recommendations of: 1. The state of knowledge of the science of climate change à WG1 ß 2. Social and economic impacts of climate change à WG2 ß 3. Possible response strategies à WG3 ß 4. Elements for inclusion in a possible future international convention on climate à UNFCCC ß 2

3 4/13/16 From Talk by Carola Saibante, IPCC Information Officer From Talk by John Houghton, Former Co-Chair of IPCC WG1 3

4 AR5 UNFCCC a.k.a. UNF-Triple C United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change International treaty signed by 192 countries Entered into force 21 March 1994 To consider what can be done to reduce (mitigate) global warming and cope with (adapt to) inevitable change Many nations signed an addition to the treaty: the Kyoto Protocol 4

5 Kyoto Protocol Text adopted at the 3 rd COP session in Kyoto, Japan on 11 December 1997 Difference between UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol: Convention encouraged countries to stabilize GHG emissions Protocol commits them to do so 84 countries signed the Protocol including the USA Entered into force on 16 February 2005, 90 days after ratification by at least 55 parties to the Convention, which accounted for at least 55% of the total carbon dioxide emissions for 1990 Ratified by 189 countries. One signatory country has not ratified: USA 5

6 Ratification Status Green: signed and ratified Grey: not yet decided Red: No intention of ratifying Ratified by 189 countries. Only one signatory country has not ratified: USA COP21: Paris Agreement 32-page document You can read it on the UNFCCC website: eng/l09r01.pdf Sets binding limits on emissions Not yet ratified Not enough 6

7 Role of IPCC First Assessment Report served as the basis for negotiating UNFCCC Relationship between IPCC and UNFCCC has continued and serves as a model for interaction between science and policy makers IPCC s Keys to Success Policy relevant, but not policy prescriptive Emphasis on scientific integrity, openness, and transparency Rigorous review process involving many experts and open to all member governments Enthusiasm and cooperation of thousands of experts who serve as authors and reviewers Source: IPCC Years of Scientific Assessment in Support of the Climate Convention. 7

8 From Talk by Carola Saibante, IPCC Information Officer Review Process 8

9 From Talk by Carola Saibante, IPCC Information Officer Reaction to IPCC Widely praised as a model of scientific collaboration Lauded for unprecedented achievement Nobel Peace Prize 2007 IPCC has also been criticized 9

10 Criticisms and Controversies Not Doing Enough Current approach not effective: warnings have attracted attention and the work garnered awards, but has not to led to effective action Assessment reports watered down to lowest common denominator: member governments must approve line by line Can t keep pace: explosion of climate research cannot be quickly assimilated under current IPCC procedures Criticisms and Controversies Doing Too Much Cherry-picking studies to play down uncertainties: a relatively small group of scientists feel that studies opposing the mainstream view are not given enough weight Hurricane (typhoon) activity Hockey stick graph 10

11 Criticisms and Controversies Approach Flawed Political interference: objectivity has been called into question because of vetting of reports by governments Too conservative: reports tend to understate dangers; fail to report on issues of potentially great importance, because of scientific uncertainty Reports are immediately outdated: mandate for periodic comprehensive report and the thorough review process delay the release until well after the original research AR5 and Beyond Refocusing scientific priorities (See: IPCC Chairman s Vision Paper. AR5 Scoping Meeting, July / documents/doc02.pdf ) Continuing march toward improved understanding Gradual reduction in uncertainty Structural changes? More focused, expeditious reports? Report dangers that are still highly uncertain? Constant updating using Wikipedia-style system? More attention to psychology/sociology of risk response? 11

12 Risk Response How Are We Doing? Kyoto countries are having a hard time meeting commitments Emissions and concentrations continue to rise 12

13 4/13/16 IPCC: Evidence of Global Warming is Overwhelming FAQ 2. 1, Fi gur e 1 Fi gur e Yet public perception and political will lag. Why? IPCC: Evidence of the Impacts of Global Warming Accumulates Yet public perception and political will lag. Why? 13

14 IPCC: Future Changes May Be Catastrophic If We Continue On Present Course Yet public perception and political will lag. Why? Why No Significant Response Science is hard Powerful interests feel threatened by possible response strategies; try to confuse issue What Needs To Be Done Scientists need to do a better job of explaining complex issues Media need to do a better job of informing public and reducing bias in coverage 14

15 Journalistic Balance Journalistic fairness requires presentation of competing points of view Works well to check biased reporting of political or social issues For scientific reporting, it demands that competing views be presented as though they had equal scientific validity, when they actually do not Results in systematic informational bias See: Jules & Maxwell Boykoff, Journalistic Balance as Global Warming Bias. Fair, Concluding Thoughts Science will continue to improve understanding Uncertainties will remain Public must recognize the urgency, but also understand that acting soon will make a difference Policy makers must find the will to act, despite uncertainties Journalists are key players who need to be knowledgeable about climate change 15

16 4/13/16 Something to Ponder To what degree should scientists become activists for policy changes to combat global warming? THANK YOU FOR YOUR COMMITMENT TO BETTER UNDERSTAND THIS CRITICALLY IMPORTANT PROBLEM 16