CORDEX 2013 Conference, Brussels, 4 November 2013
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1 johnthescone The IPCC 5 th Assessment Report (AR5) Jean-Pascal van Ypersele (@JPvanYpersele) IPCC Vice-chair CORDEX 2013 Conference, Brussels, 4 November 2013 Thanks to the Belgian Federal Science Policy Office for its support
2 Why the IPCC? Established by WMO and UNEP in 1988 to provide policymakers with an objective source of information about z causes of climate change, z potential environmental and socio-economic impacts, z possible response options.
3 Structure of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
4 IPCC writing cycle (4 years, 831 Lead authors) Plenary decides table of content of reports Bureau appoints world-class scientists as authors, based on publication record Authors assess all scientific literature Draft Expert review (+ Review editors) Draft 2 (+ Draft 1 Summary for Policy Makers (SPM) Combined expert/government review Draft 3 (+ Draft 2 SPM) Government review of SPM Approval Plenary (interaction authors governments) SPM and full report NB: the scientists have the last word! Jean-Pascal van Ypersele (vanypersele@astr.ucl.ac.be)
5 Completed IPCC Reports 4 Assessment Reports (1990,1995, 2001, 2007) 1992 Supplementary Report and 1994 Special Report 8 Special Reports (1997,1999, 2000, 2005, 2011) Guidelines for National GHG Inventories, Good Practice Guidance ( ) 6 Technical Papers ( )
6 Background IPCC First Assessment Report Climate + Impacts Najam et al., 2003 and Alam, 2007 IPCC Second Assessment Report Climate + Impacts (Equity) IPCC Third Assessment Report Climate + Impacts Equity (Alternative Development Pathway) IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Climate + Impacts (Costeffectiveness) Costeffectiveness Costeffectiveness Costeffectiveness Equity Alternative Development Pathway (Sustainable Development) 6
7 AR5 is/will be the best ever Better integration of Mitigation and Adaptation Improved risk-management approach Evolving away from the non-mitigation SRES scenarios (SRES= Special Report on Emission Scenarios, 2000) Special effort to provide regional information when available Sustainable development & equity aspects More comprehensive treatment of economic aspects, and of cross-cutting issues Emerging issues handled (geo-engineering, ) Better handling & communication of uncertainties 7
8 The IPCC assessments have influenced global action on an unprecedented scale 1. The First Assessment Report (FAR, 1990) had a major impact in defining the content of the UNFCCC 2. The Second Assessment Report (SAR, 1996) was largely influential in defining the provisions of the Kyoto Protocol 3. The Third Assessment Report (TAR, 2001) focused attention on the impacts of climate change and the need for adaptation 4. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4, 2007) informed the decision on the ultimate objective (2 C) and is creating a strong basis for a post Kyoto Protocol agreement 5. The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5, ) will inform the review of the 2 C objective, and be the context for preparing the Paris Paris 2015 agreement IPCC 8
9 Recent/Coming IPCC Products 2011: Special report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation 2011: Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation 2013: AR5 WGI report (physical science) 2014: AR5 WGII (Impacts & Adaptation); WGIII (Mitigation), Synthesis Report All available on
10 A Progression of Understanding: Greater and Greater Certainty in Attribution AR1 (1990): unequivocal detection not likely for a decade AR2 (1995): balance of evidence suggests discernible human influence AR3 (2001): most of the warming of the past 50 years is likely (odds 2 out of 3) due to human activities AR4 (2007): most of the warming is very likely (odds 9 out of 10) due to greenhouse gases AR5 (2013) «It is extremely likely (odds 95 out of 100) that human influence has been the dominant cause» AR1 AR2 AR3 AR4 IPCC
11 Significant inertia exists in the climate system CO 2 emissions peak : 0 to 80 years Sea-level rise due to ice melt : some millennia CO 2 stabilization : 50 to 300 years Sea-level rise due to thermal expansion century to millennia Today 100 years Temperature stabilization : a few centuries 1000 years Source: IPCC (2001)
12 12 Conclusion (1): Science has a lot to offer to understand better this un-named Party of UNFCCC, with whom one cannot negotiate: The Climate System, governed by the laws of Nature
13 13 Conclusion (2): IPCC is eager to continue serving the climate and sustainable development process, with policy relevance, without being policyprescriptive
14 Useful links: IPCC: IPCC WGI contribution to AR5:
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