SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

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1 Erin Roberts, Stephanie Andrei, Saleemul Huq and Lawrence Flint This supplementary document elaborates on the synergies between the three post-2015 development processes described in the commentary. As highlighted in the commentary, loss and damage associated with the impacts of climate change from both extreme weather events and slow onset climatic processes - has become an important issue at the international level under the global climate change regime as well as an unfortunate reality for millions of households and communities worldwide, affecting the poorest most harshly. At the global level, loss and damage has been described as the impacts of climate change not avoided through mitigation and adaptation efforts 1,2. The term has been further differentiated into avoided loss and damage (through adequate mitigation and adaptation efforts), unavoided loss and damage (through inadequate mitigation and adaptation efforts) and unavoidable loss and damage to describe the inevitable impacts of climate change that cannot be adapted to 3. At the local level, loss and damage has been described as the negative effects of climate variability and climate change that people have not been able to cope with or adapt to 4. Both direct and indirect losses and damages associated with the impacts of climate change are becoming more frequent and powerful arbiters of social and economic stability, reducing resilience to future climate change impacts. The best measure to reduce future loss and damage associated with climate change impacts is timely mitigation action 5. However, there is a considerable time-lag between when mitigation actions are taken and when they have impacts on the climate system. It is therefore important to acknowledge the role of adaptation, disaster risk reduction (DRR) and sustainable development to help prevent and reduce loss and damage and to build resilience so that households and communities can better cope with and manage impacts when they occur. For this reason, 2015 has been an important year for efforts to address loss and damage with the culmination of three global processes described in the commentary, often referred to as the post-2015 development agenda including the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction , the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the new climate change agreement under the UNFCCC to be established at the 21 st Conference of the Parties (COP 21) in Paris in December The importance of avoiding and reducing loss and damage associated with the impacts of climate change is an implicit goal within all three processes but synergies between these three key international processes have not been widely explored through a loss and damage lens. The Sustainable Development Goals COMMENTARY: Resilience synergies in the post-2015 development agenda Climate change is one of the most serious challenges confronting human development. According to the IPCC the global costs of adaptation for developing countries could be 70 to 100 billion USD by However, a recent report found that for a 2 C scenario the cost of adaptation in Africa alone could reach 50 billion USD a year 7. As highlighted NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 1

2 in the commentary piece the SDGs include 17 goals and 169 targets, many of which are relevant for addressing climate change. Loss and damage associated with future climate change impacts will include economic impacts such as decreased food production (SDG2) and economic growth (SDG8) as well as threats to water security (SDG6), energy (SDG7), infrastructure (SDG9), and the production/consumption of other goods and services (SDG-12). Additionally, non-economic losses and damages associated with climate change impacts which represent items not regularly bought/sold on the market 8 could include threats to equality (SDG5, SDG10), marine ecosystems (SDG14), terrestrial ecosystems (SDG15) and peace and justice (SDG16) as well as reduced access to clean air free from greenhouse gas emissions (SDG13). The 13th SDG addresses climate change specifically, stating that countries should, take action to combat climate change and its impacts with a footnote acknowledging the role of the UNFCCC as the leading body on climate change 9. While it is important that the SDGs acknowledge the impacts of climate change on sustainable development, the eradication of poverty and the advancement of sustainable development which are the aim of the SDGs - play a crucial role in reducing vulnerability and building resilience to climate change. Efforts to address climate change must therefore build on robust sustainable development and poverty reduction policies and plans, which will increase the extent to which losses and damages can be avoided and better prepare households and communities to cope with those that are not or cannot be avoided. The resolution on the SDGs adopted by the General Assembly in September also recognizes the role of finance, especially public finance, in supporting development in developing countries. Goal 17 urges developed countries to, implement fully their official development assistance commitments 10. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction The Sendai Framework is a more holistic set of guidelines than its predecessor, the Hyogo Framework for Action on DRR, with greater emphasis on health, livelihoods and culture among other aspects of human well-being. As such, the Sendai Framework is highly relevant for the loss and damage agenda. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) maintains that the aim of DRR is to reduce exposure and vulnerability and enhance resilience 11. Such efforts will need to be enhanced given that future extreme weather events will lead to significant loss and damage if the risks are not reduced behorehand. The Sendai Framework was established to reduce disaster risk and losses in lives, livelihoods and health and in economic, physical, social, cultural, and environmental assets from a range of events that include both natural and anthropogenic impacts over the next 15 years 12. The bedrock of the Sendai Framework is therefore to reduce and avoid loss and damage. The Sendai Framework recognizes the opportunity to address climate change as a key driver of risk while respecting the mandate of the UNFCCC to address climate change specifically. Broad efforts to reduce exposure and vulnerability to a range of disaster risks will also almost certainly contribute to efforts to avoiding loss and damage from climate change impacts. In addition, one of the goals of the Sendai Framework is to 2 NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE

3 prevent new risks and reduce existing disaster risk through integrated measures that reduce both exposure and vulnerability while enhancing the ability to respond and recover to disasters, all of which should build resilience 13. The Sendai Framework maintains that the post-2015 development agenda presents a unique opportunity to enhance coherence across policies, institutions, goals, indicators, and measurement systems for implementation, while respecting their respective mandates 14. What is unclear however is how this coherence will be enhanced in practice. Framing the three processes as a collective means of both avoiding and addressing loss and damage could be the entry point. Indeed, the Sendai Framework recognizes the importance of developing and strengthening both regional approaches and operational mechanisms in order to, prepare for and ensure rapid and effective disaster response in situations that exceed national coping capacities 15. However, the Sendai Framework fails to provide the means of implementation financial, technology development and transfer and capacity building support - needed to implement its guidelines in developing countries. While there is a great deal that developing countries are already doing to reduce disaster risk, with international support these efforts could be enhanced. The new climate change agreement As predictions of future climate change have become increasingly severe, focus on loss and damage has increased under the UNFCCC. In late 2013 at the nineteenth Conference of the Parties (COP) the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage associated with Climate Change Impacts (WIM) was established to address loss and damage from both extreme events and slow onset events in developing countries particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change 16. The functions of the WIM are: 1. To enhance knowledge and understanding of comprehensive risk management approaches to address loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change, including slow onset impacts; 2. To strengthen dialogue, coordination, coherence and synergies among relevant stakeholders; and 3. To enhance action and support, including finance, technology and capacitybuilding, to address loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change. The implementation of the workplan of the WIM is being overseen by an Executive Committee comprised of ten members from developing countries and ten members from developed countries. The WIM will be reviewed at COP 22 in Marrakech in late While the workplan of the WIM represents progress in addressing loss and damage under the UNFCCC, it falls short of what is needed to provide developing countries with the support they need to address loss and damage from climate change impacts in 2020 and beyond. In December 2015 Parties to the UNFCCC will gather in Paris to finalize the new climate agreement, protocol or another legal instrument. As mentioned in the commentary under the new agreement there is an opportunity to acknowledge the link between mitigation, NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 3

4 adaptation and loss and damage, which is an issue of growing importance considering the likelihood of escalating impacts of climate change. An agreement that ensures that warming is kept below 2 C the global temperature goal agreed upon by Parties at COP 15 in Copenhagen will require ambitious but technically feasible mitigation action. Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) are the vehicles through which countries have indicated the actions they intend to take on mitigation and adaptation, if provided with support in the case of most developing countries. According to a recent synthesis report by the UNFCCC secretariat the INDCs submitted thus far will not translate into a below 2 C world 17. However, the IPCC maintains that the window for keeping warming 2 C is still possible 18. There is still an opportunity to ramp up mitigation and adaptation action in the pre-2020 period under workstream 2 of the ADP, to limit warming to below 2 C while enhancing adaption to those impacts that will occur in the pre-202 period from historical emissions. Even with high levels of mitigation, climate change impacts are inevitable and thus adaptation is an integral component of the new agreement and must be addressed in a meaningful way to ensure provisions for enhancing and supporting adaptation in a post world. Developing countries are already doing a lot to address climate change in their national contexts. However, on-going and scaled up support is needed to help developing countries adapt to the impacts of climate change. Unfortunately not all impacts of climate change will be avoided. As the commentary alluded to the limits to adaptation are already being reached in some parts of the world 19,20,21. To be durable, the new agreement must therefore ensure developing countries have the support to address loss and damage given the likely climate realities of 2020, 2030 and beyond. Conclusion The need to find synergies and enhance coordination and coherence between the three processes that make up the post-2015 development agenda is not new and has been the subject of significant discussion in recent years. However, there has been less focus on how to operationalize these synergies. One way of doing so is to frame the post-2015 development agenda as a collective means through which to reduce and avoid loss and damage where possible and build resilience to better address those losses and damages that cannot be avoided. It is also clear that, as development is at the heart of these processes, more support is needed to ensure that developing countries can continue to develop while addressing the impacts of climate change. 4 NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE

5 References 1. Roberts, E. & Huq, S Coming Full Circle: The History of Loss and Damage under the UNFCCC. Int. J. Global Warm. 8(2), Roberts, E., van der Geest, K., Warner, K. & Andrei. S Loss and damage: When adaptation is not enough. Environ. Dev. 11, Verheyen, R Tackling loss and damage. Bonn: Germanwatch. 4. Warner, K. & van der Geest, K Loss and damage from climate change: Local level evidence from nine vulnerable countries. Int. J. Global Warm. 5(4), United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) The Emissions Gap Report 2014: A UNEP Synthesis Report. Nairobi: UNEP. 6. Chambwera, M. et al Chapter 17: Economics of adaptation. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds. Field, C.B. et al.). Cambridge, New York: Cambridge University Press. 7. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) The Adaptation Gap: A Preliminary Assessment. Nairobi: UNEP. 8. Morrissey, J. & Oliver-Smith, A Perspectives on Non-Economic Loss and Damage: Understanding value at risk from climate change. Bonn: Germanwatch. 9. United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). 2015a. Resolution adopted by the General Assembly on 25 September 2015: Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. A/RES/70/ Ibid. 11. IPCC Summary for Policymakers. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds. Barros, V. et al.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 12. United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). 2015b. Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction A/69/L Ibid. 16. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Report of the conference of the Parties on its nineteenth session, held in Warsaw from 11 to 23 November FCCC/CP/2013/10/Add United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) Synthesis Report on the Aggregate Effect of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). FCCC/CP/2015/ IPCC Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds. Edenhofer, O. et al.). Cambridge, New York: Cambridge University NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 5

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