Q A Year-End Snapshot - A Good Result for Most. Quarterly CatIQ CatReview. Aviva Goes to the Bank. S&P Rating Roundup

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1 Q A Year-End Snapshot - A Good Result for Most Aviva Goes to the Bank Quarterly CatIQ CatReview S&P Rating Roundup Ontario Auto E&O Potholes Ahead Fourth Quarter and Year-End Company Results Released April

OVER 200 REGISTERED 's CIFF Canadian Insurance Financial Forum The challenges facing finance professionals in the industry continue to be daunting.

Who Should Attend The CIFF is designed for finance professionals in the general insurance industry including: CEO s & CFO s CIO s & CRO s Actuaries Analysts Insurer Board Members Regulators

2 OVER 200 REGISTERED 's CIFF Canadian Insurance Financial Forum The challenges facing finance professionals in the industry continue to be daunting. Our mission is to provide you with the tools, knowledge and contacts to take these challenges on with confidence. Who Should Attend The CIFF is designed for finance professionals in the general insurance industry including: CEO s & CFO s CIO s & CRO s Actuaries Analysts Insurer Board Members Regulators Consultants VP, AVP Finance, Controllers, Directors, Managers & staff REGISTER NOW! Wednesday May 25 th Allstream Centre, Toronto Sessions include: Review of Industry Results and Outlook Global Economic Outlook Rethinking FSCO s Mandate Developing an Effective Operational Risk Management and Measurement Program Mega Cat Risk - Can the Industry Cope with the Aftermath? IFRS From the Front Lines - Dealing with Volatility Global Megatrends and the Impact on Future Tax and Business Functions Peering Through the Mist - Facing the Technology Risk Horizon Assessing Reserve Risk - Practical Considerations Closing Financial Leaders Panel Where Finance, Risk & Actuarial Professionals Meet Platinum Sponsors Gold Sponsors

3 Introduction We are pleased to release the fourth quarter, year-end 2015 MSA Quarterly Outlook Report covering the Canadian P&C industry. Our mission of providing Canada s insurance professionals with unwavering, unbiased analysis of this dynamic industry remains steadfast. We welcome your comments and feedback regarding any aspect of these reports. You are invited to send your messages to msaquarterly@msaresearch.com, or contact the undersigned directly. In this issue, you will find: A Year-End Snapshot - A Good Result for Most Aviva Goes to the Bank Ontario Auto E&O Potholes Ahead Boom and Bust Long Term ALAE Trends Quarterly CatIQ CatReview S&P Rating Roundup Fourth Quarter and Year-End Company Results For detailed year-end company results please login to MSA s P&C Researcher Software platform at MSA Research Inc. 1

regulators, associations, auditors, analysts & TPA s. All TIC member brokers courtesy of Lloyd s.

4 The MSA Quarterly Outlook Report is produced by MSA Research Inc., Canada s leading provider of insurance analytics. Our Readers This report is subscribed to by approximately 1,400 industry professionals including most Canadian insurance/reinsurance executives, commercial brokers, retail brokers, adjusters, regulators, associations, auditors, analysts & TPA s. All TIC member brokers courtesy of Lloyd s. All Ontario (IBAO) and Alberta (IBAA) brokers courtesy of Economical Insurance All RCCAQ member brokerages in Quebec courtesy of Aviva Canada Interested in sponsoring these reports to other broker associations or industry groups? If so, please contact us. Subscription information can be found on the outside back cover. Sincerely, Joel Baker, President and CEO, MSA Research Inc. and The National Insurance Conference of Canada joel.baker@msaresearch.com by MSA Research Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this report shall be reproduced or redistributed without prior written consent of the copyright holders. Information contained in this report is deemed to be trustworthy; however, MSA Research Inc. does not guarantee its accuracy. No representations or warranties are provided as to the completeness or accuracy of the information presented here. If you are aware of any errors or inaccuracies, you are encouraged to notify any of the contributors so that problems can be rectified. Printed in Canada ISSN MSA Research Inc.

5 MSA Quarterly Outlook Report Q Abstract

2 16 September 28-30 The Westin Bayshore, Vancouver, B.C. Register Now! www.niccanada.

External and Insurance Views The Road We re Heading Down Are Commercial Insurance Distribution

Harnessing The Power of Data Analytics in the Insurance Space Global Deals - Local Consequences

Seismic Risk in Canada - A Multi-Disciplinary View Global Leaders Panel The Future of Market

The NICC is Canada s pre-eminent insurance conference attended by senior executives of

Together with our senior advisory committee of industry CEO s, we are once again making the

6 2 16 September The Westin Bayshore, Vancouver, B.C. Register Now! Sessions include: The View from OSFI Client-Centricity Shouldn t Be a Foreign Language - External and Insurance Views The Road We re Heading Down Are Commercial Insurance Distribution Models Changing? Harnessing The Power of Data Analytics in the Insurance Space Global Deals - Local Consequences - UN Climate Conference, Feeling the Heat Understanding The Blockchain Potential Preparing for Seismic Risk in Canada - A Multi-Disciplinary View Global Leaders Panel The Future of Market Conduct Regulation Are We Ready for the Cyber Threat Horizon? The NICC is Canada s pre-eminent insurance conference attended by senior executives of insurers, brokers, reinsurers, risk managers, regulators and industry associations. Together with our senior advisory committee of industry CEO s, we are once again making the NICC a can t miss industry leadership event. Keynote Speaker Jessica Yellin Award-winning former Chief White House correspondent for CNN NICC Emcee Amanda Lang Where Industry Leaders Meet Platinum Sponsors Gold Sponsors Silver Sponsors Media Sponsors

7 Price List Annual subscription to the MSA Quarterly Outlook Report, P&C Canadian insurers and groups with over $1billion in NPW (30 Copies) $1500 Canadian insurers and groups with $750 million-$1b in NPW (15 Copies) $1000 Canadian insurers and groups with $500 million-$750m in NPW (5 Copies) $599 Additional copies (same location) $150 ea. Need more than 30 copies? Call us for pricing. All prices in Canadian dollars. Prices subject to tax where applicable. To order, please complete the form below and send it to: or by fax: Or to MSA Research by mail or courier Items Qty (CAD) Canadian insurers and groups with over $1billion in NPW (30 copies) 1,500 Canadian insurers and groups with $750 million-$1b in NPW (15 copies) 1,000 Canadian insurers and groups with $500 million-$750m in NPW (5 copies 599 All others (1st copy) 299 Additional copies (same location) 150 Need more than 30 copies? Call us for pricing Recognized educational institutions, deduct 25% Ontario/NB/NFLD orders add 13% HST Prince Edward Island orders add 14% HST Nova Scotia orders add 15% HST Quebec orders add 9.975% QST British Columbia orders add 7% PST Outside Canada add S+H (CAD) $100 SUBTOTAL All other Canadian orders add 5% GST TOTAL (CAD) (GST/HST Reg #R ) (QST#: ) (BC PST #: PST ) Name Title Company Address City Prov/State Postal/Zip Code Country Phone Payment Method (Check One) Visa Mastercard Amex Number: Expiration Date: Name on Card: Signature: Address of card holder: Cheque or money order Cheques must be payable to MSA Research Inc. All non-canadian or non-us cheques must be drawn on a Canadian bank. Alternatively, payment should be made by credit-card or wire transfer. Bill me (subject to credit approval) MSA MSA and Research CatIQ The and Industry CatIQ, Your Gold Definitive Standards Insurance Analytical Tools MSA Researcher P&C and Life/Health Online Platforms The most comprehensive and powerful analytical engines of Canadian insurance industry financial information (Up to 26 years of detailed financial information) MSA Report A wealth of financial information on the overwhelming majority of Canada s P&C insurers (five years of data) MSA Market Share Report Valuable market share and rankings for every line of business in every province (five years of data) MSA Benchmark Report A powerful benchmarking tool providing comparative information and analysis on 43 P&C industry benchmarks (five years of data) MSA s Quarterly Outlook Reports What you re holding in your hand right now CatIQ s Catastrophe Analysis Platform Unparalleled analytical, insured loss estimates and meteorological information on Canadian catastrophes. For more information please visit Richmond St. W., Suite 605, Toronto, ON, Canada M5H 2L3 T F E. info@msaresearch.com - Definitive insurance information for intelligent business decisions.

Q Quarterly CatIQ CatReview. Q Nice While it Lasted. S&P Rating Roundup. The Catastrophic Fort McMurray Wildfire

Q Quarterly CatIQ CatReview. Q Nice While it Lasted. S&P Rating Roundup. The Catastrophic Fort McMurray Wildfire Q1- Q1- Nice While it Lasted The Catastrophic Fort McMurray Wildfire In the Line of Fire - Canadian Wildfire Risk Quarterly CatIQ CatReview S&P Rating Roundup First Quarter Company Results Released June