2017 Resiliency Peer Exchange On Extreme Weather and Climate Impacts
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1 NCHRP Panel 20-59, Surface Transportation Security and Resilience Research 2017 Resiliency Peer Exchange On Extreme Weather and Climate Impacts Washington DC November 6-7, 2017 Dave Fletcher GPC, Inc.
2 The Case for Resiliency to Extreme Weather Events A Nation wide Con cern An Econ omic Imperative A Leadership Requirement November 2017 All Rights Reserved 2
3 Understanding Transportation Resilien ce Understanding Transportation Resilience: A Roadmap (2017) Managing Catastrophic Transportation Emergencies: A Guide for Transportation Executives (2015) Fundamental Capabilities of Effective All Hazards Infrastructure Protection Resilience, and Emergency Management for State Dots (2015) Security 101: A Physical Primer for Transportation Agencies (2009) (Update in progress) A Guide to Emergency Response Planning at State Transportation Agencies (2010) (Update in Progress) November 2017 All Rights Reserved 3
4 What is resilience? Th e ability to prepare and plan for, absorb, recover from, or more successfully adapt to adverse events. AASHTO November 2017 All Rights Reserved 4
5 Resilience has many faces, November 2017 All Rights Reserved 5
6 ... many dimensions, Dimension Emergency Management Design Engineering Climate, Community and Societal Change Mission Prepare, Respond, Recover Resist, Adapt Plan, Resist, Adapt, Relocate Duration Hours - Months Years - Decades Decades or longer Potential Disruptions Extreme weather events Natural disasters Terrorist incidents New loading & durability requirements Climate change impacts Sea level rise Mass migrations Impact Local - Regional Local Superregional - Global Governance Transportation Agency Role Varies but Public Safety Agencies (PSA) generally provide Incident Command Support evacuation and emergency access activities Varies but State DOTs generally provide Project Management Engineering and construction services All levels of government Funding Planning Policies and Standards November 2017 All Rights Reserved 6
7 ... many scales, November 2017 All Rights Reserved 7
8 ... and many choices Source: Caltrans November 2017 All Rights Reserved 8
9 AASHTO Resilience Research Program 20-59(54) 20-59(55) Discussion Papers Resilien ce Research Roadmap CEO Interviews CEO Forums CEO Primer on Resilien ce Summit & Peer Exchange Resilien ce Guide Resilien ce Toolkit NCHRP Synthesis /Top ic Resilien ce in Tran sportation Plan n in g, Engineering, Man agemen t, Policy, an d Admin istration November 2017 All Rights Reserved 9
10 AASHTO Resilience Research Program November 2017 All Rights Reserved 10
11 Understanding Transportation Resilience: Discussion Papers What is the topic? Why is this issue critical or importan t to my agency or me? What do you want me to do? Copies of the NCHRP resilience papers are available from Stephan Parker, TRB (saparker@nas.edu) November 2017 All Rights Reserved 11
12 Understanding Transportation Resilien ce: An Environmental Perspective Heavy Rainfall & Runoff Flooding & Storm Surges Heavy Snow & Ice Storms High Winds & Tornados Hurricanes & Cyclones Extreme Heat & Heat Waves Lightning Rockfalls & Landslides Avalanches & M udslides Earthquakes & Tsunamis Sinkholes Volcanoes & Lava Flows Extreme Cold Drought Wildfires Space w eat h er & Solar St orms Sea Level Rise & High Tides November 2017 All Rights Groundwater Reserved 12
13 21 st Century Climate Trends Hotter Wetter Weirder November 2017 All Rights Reserved 13
14 Weather and Climate Risks Source: National Climate Assessment November 2017 All Rights Reserved 14
15 One-size w o n t fit all Major differences in Population Econ omic activity Infrastructure investment Resources November 2017 All Rights Reserved 15
16 American Climate Refugees 2100 Projected migration linked to sea-level rise by state. Source: Nature Climate Change November 2017 All Rights Reserved 16
17 Ten Essential Points 1. Resilience requires concentrated, sustained effort 2. Resilien ce h as sh ort-term, intermediate and lon g-range horizons 3. No state is immun e 4. Heat waves, severe storms, and sea level rise pose the greatest threats, resulting in 5. Reduced asset performance, disruption of service, and increased costs to users and DOTs November 2017 All Rights Reserved 17
18 Ten Essential Poin ts 6. Failures erode public trust, affect local econ omies, an d gen erate political blowback 7. Old disaster management approaches have been O BE e d 8. One-size solution s don t fit all situation s 9. Political, in stitution al, scien tific, an d tech n ical barriers ch allen ge leadersh ip 10. DOTs cannot go it alone November 2017 All Rights Reserved 18
19 Understanding Transportation Resilien ce: An Economic Perspective Forget the political debate, forget the national debate, forget the debate about the science; think about what you re seeing right here. You've got to do something about it, and you've elected us to make decisions; you've elected me to make decisions, so I've got to do something about it. Jake Day, M ayor, Salisbury, M D November 2017 All Rights Reserved 19
20 Pretty grim already... Disaster Type Storms or Flooding Drought/Heat Waves Number of Events CPI- Adjusted Losses (B$) Deaths 152 $ , $ ,993 Wildfire 14 $ Winter Storm 14 $42.7 1,013 Freeze 8 $ All Disasters 212 $ 1, ,680 Increasing losses, due to Growing economy Rising construction costs More assets in vulnerable places (e.g., coastlines) More recovery funds to least prepared states Increasing disaster severity and frequency NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters (1980-Jun 2017). November 2017 All Rights Reserved 20
21 FY 17 FHWA Emergency Relief Funding Event Type Number (%) Allocation (M$) Storms or Flooding 70 (80.5%) $579.7 Wildfire 5 (5.7%) $19.8 Rock fall/rockslide 5 (5.7%) $14.3 Bridge Damage 5 (5.7%) $25.3 Other 2 (2.3%) $31.3 All Events 87 (100%) $ states received allocations 80.5% of events & 86.5% of $ were related to storm or flooding damage November 2017 All Rights Reserved 21
22 ...gonna get worse Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States ( ) November 2017 All Rights Reserved 22
23 Economic Perspectives Community investment Services provider Econ omic stimulan t Revenue source Major market Enabler and user of other critical in frastructures such as Communications, Energy, and Emergency Services November 2017 All Rights Reserved 23
24 Economic Goals Improve accessibility, mobility, an d con n ectivity, across all modes, for all users Min imize service disruption s Preserve asset value Protect critical infrastructure components Stimulate the economy Maintain interconnectedness with other critical infrastructures November 2017 All Rights Reserved 24
25 Resilience Loss-Recovery November 2017 All Rights Reserved 25
26 5 Myths of Transportation Resilien ce M yt h 1: The transportation system is neither resilient nor reliable. M yth 2: You can engineer your way to resilience. M yt h 3: DOTs have not invested in transportation resilience. M yth 4: Resilien ce is just Operations on steroids. M yt h 5: Extreme Weather Resilien ce is th e n ew, politically correct term for Climate Change. November 2017 All Rights Reserved 26
27 Transportation Resilience Prin ciples On e strategy is n ot sufficien t One size does n ot fit all Urban v. Rural contexts Sufficient v. Shoestring resources Life Critical v. Non-essential mission s One agency is not in charge Communicate Cooperate Collaborate Contract November 2017 All Rights Reserved 27
28 A Leadership Requirement FUNCTIONS ASSETS NETWORKS SYSTEMS PEOPLE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT DESIGN ENGINEERING CLIMATE, COMMUNITY AND SOCIETAL CHANGE The assignments, tasks, and positions in a state DOT that are critical to the performance of continued transportation activities The infrastructure, equipment, resources, tools, vehicles, hardware, and facilities owned and operated by a state DOT The relationships maintained by a state DOT with the private sector and other branches of government that ensure continuity of transportation activities The critical technology and applications, including data, used to operate the DOT and the infrastructure and enable reliable network communication The necessary personnel needed by a state DOT to ensure resilient transportation activities November 2017 All Rights Reserved 28
29 Thank You Weather related disruptions and loss of service have real impacts on individuals and our economy. People can t get to work, get to school, and get to health care. People get sick. Businesses lose productivity. Families are stressed. People die. These are the reasons we need to act. -NCHRP Panel M ember The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago; the second best time is now. Traditional Proverb November 2017 All Rights Reserved 29 Created by Freepik
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