SECTOR ASSESSMENT (SUMMARY): FINANCE (DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT) 1. Sector Performance, Problems, and Opportunities

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1 National Disaster Risk Management Fund (RRP PAK 50316) SECTOR ASSESSMENT (SUMMARY): FINANCE (DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT) A. Sector Road Map 1. Sector Performance, Problems, and Opportunities a. Performance 1. Pakistan requires substantial financing to mitigate its significant disaster risks. The country, its population, and its assets are increasingly exposed and vulnerable to various natural hazards. It was one of the 10 most vulnerable countries impacted by extreme weather events from 1995 to Since 2000, increasing natural hazard events have resulted in significant loss of life, economic damage, and the undoing of development gains. Frequent floods have caused the greatest physical damage. Three major floods in 2010, 2011, and 2014 affected more than 30 million people, resulting in more than $14 billion in damage and losses exceeding $14 billion. A major earthquake in 2005 caused more than 73,000 deaths and $5 billion in losses. The country is also at risk of tropical cyclones and droughts, including a drought in that affected more than 3 million people. These events severely impact the livelihoods of the poor and vulnerable, result in mass migration, disrupt trade and commerce, and destabilize markets. Such events negatively impact government budgets, periodically placing significant additional demands on limited public resources for humanitarian relief, early recovery, and reconstruction. The poor are particularly vulnerable to natural hazards as they are more likely to live in substandard structures in hazard-prone areas, have uncertain land ownership rights (reducing their incentives to manage risk), and depend on vulnerable livelihoods, such as agriculture and informal urban labor markets. 2. Climate change is expected to lead to increased temperatures, glacial melts, rising sea levels in coastal areas, and changing frequency and intensity of precipitation. This may increase future disaster losses if appropriate action is not taken. Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable countries in terms of climate change impacts, and events such as floods and droughts are expected to recur regularly in the future. Due to increased unplanned urbanization, the exposure and vulnerability of the urban poor to natural and manmade disasters has increased substantially, further exacerbating disaster risks. 3. Historically, the Government of Pakistan took a largely response-orientated approach to disasters, reacting to them as and when they occurred. However, since the massive 2005 earthquake, disaster risk management (DRM) policy and strategy in Pakistan have moved to a broader approach stressing disaster risk reduction (DRR) and preparedness. Constitutional changes introduced in 2013 have also transferred an increased number of responsibilities from the federal to the provincial level. Nonetheless, progress in this area is limited by financing and capacity constraints. Extensive work supported by multiple donors has been undertaken to promulgate the National Disaster Management Act, 2010, and to establish the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and provincial and district disaster management authorities. DRM-related planning has become the purview of the national and provincial planning ministries and federal Ministry of Climate Change. Despite this progress, the national, provincial, and district disaster management authorities have limited technical capacity. The mainstreaming of DRM in planning and operations is still in initial stages in all key federal and provincial ministries, departments, and agencies. 1 Germanwatch e.v Global Climate Risk Index 2016: Who Suffers Most from Extreme Weather Events? Weather-Related Loss Events in 2014 and 1995 to Berlin.

2 2 b. Problems 4. Resource constraints. Pakistan needs to spend significant amounts on DRM. To implement the NDMP, Pakistan will need at least $1 billion from 2013 to 2022, primarily for DRR and preparedness. Meanwhile, the draft National Flood Protection Plan IV (NFPP-IV) proposes a series of structural and non-structural measures costing nearly $2 billion. The government plans to integrate NFPP-IV into a revised NDMP, which is forecasted to cost approximately $3 billion. However, substantial resource constraints remain, particularly at the provincial and district levels to which significant DRM responsibilities have been devolved. These resource constraints reflect broader budgetary constraints and more immediately pressing demands on public resources. 5. Limited integration of disaster risk management into development planning and investment due to gaps in disaster risk assessment. Although understanding of the synergies between DRM, climate change adaptation, poverty eradication, and sustainable development, and the mechanisms for integrating disaster risk concerns into development planning and investment is strengthening, knowledge and practice gaps remain. During reconstruction of the area affected by the 2005 earthquake, safer construction practices have been followed widely. The National Building Code has also been updated to include seismic provisions as an integral part of the code. Steps have also been taken to revise the planning process and develop a related checklist to mainstream DRM into development planning. However, implementation of building codes remains generally weak, and challenges are exacerbated by rapid unplanned urbanization (especially in floodplains); population growth; and low general awareness of disaster risk, particularly on the part of local governments and communities. Moreover, the integration of DRM into the broader development planning system is limited. A much bolder approach is therefore needed to reduce disaster risk. This approach requires strong political commitment and continuity in government policy to prioritize DRR, combined with a comprehensive institutional mechanism to incorporate DRM into the national public investment planning systems and investments of all relevant national and local government agencies. 6. Inadequate disaster risk financing arrangements. Federal and provincial governments ex-ante financing instruments for post-disaster response are severely limited. They also lack a broader financial strategy to manage the fiscal consequences of disasters that would provide a cost-effective bundle of instruments for different risk layers, smooth costs over time, and ensure timely early recovery and reconstruction support. The federal government s contingency funding for response to national emergencies is limited, and it relies on postdisaster budgetary reallocations to fund response efforts and on international assistance for major disasters. The penetration of insurance markets is also highly limited. For instance, insured losses from the 2010 floods amounted to $100 million, equivalent to 1% of total damage and losses. 2 Moreover, a significant portion of the insured losses were accounted for by public power companies, while household losses were nearly entirely uninsured. The government has several other limited sovereign risk transfer mechanisms, although it requested a scoping study on subsidized disaster risk insurance for the poor that was completed in June Some limited crop and livestock insurance, including for disaster losses, is available commercially from several national providers. Agricultural insurance is compulsory for farmers who have taken seasonal loans from banks; however, no disaster insurance is linked to microfinance. General government knowledge and understanding of disaster risk financing (DRF) is also extremely 2 Swiss Re Sigma. No 1/2011. Zurich.

3 3 limited, requiring significant capacity building. Pakistan has no reliable flood models for pricing risk, although there are various earthquake models. 7. Weak governance and accountability. The establishment of coordinated, coherent, and capacitated DRM action across different sectors and government levels remains a key challenge. Any large-scale emergency operations would require a delineation of mandates of various government levels to provide the structure and clarity required for all stakeholders to work with maximum efficiency. However, in practice, several institutions have overlapping DRM roles and responsibilities, as do the planning commission and regional development planning agencies. Coordination between different levels of the DRM agency structure is also weak, and the NDMA has incomplete knowledge of subnational DRM activities, including development partner activities. There is a broad lack of a common approach or lesson learning, with various stakeholders working in silos. DRM authorities at various government levels also have limited DRM technological capacity and expertise, especially at the district level, and insufficient leadership. PDMAs remain largely response-centric. District disaster management agencies (DDMAs) have particularly weak capacity in all aspects of DRM, reflecting nearly nonexistent resources and equipment. Broader civil society knowledge of disaster risk is also limited, presenting linked sustainability issues for disaster resilience initiatives in communities where no disaster has been experienced for 3 or 4 years. 8. Poor integration with climate change policies and programs. The NDMA is positioned within the Ministry of Climate Change at the federal level. The National Climate Change Policy approved in 2013 includes the need to strengthen resilience to extreme weather events. A Framework for Implementation of Climate Change Policy, was subsequently approved; however, at the provincial level the mandate for implementing climate change measures rests with the respective provincial environmental agencies. These agencies have weak capacities and lack institutional mechanisms to implement the climate change policy or coordinate effectively with DRM agencies. c. Opportunities 9. There are considerable opportunities to strengthen disaster resilience in Pakistan by supporting all areas of DRM. DRR actions are often highly cost-effective, saving lives and contributing to inclusive, sustainable development. DRR investments can achieve high economic rates of return, with average net benefit cost ratios of about 4:1. Adequate DRF arrangements are also essential, including the development of ex-ante instruments, such as contingency financing arrangements and insurance, in anticipation of a disaster. These instruments ensure some immediate post-disaster liquidity for humanitarian responses and the rapid repair of critical lifeline infrastructure. Finally, strong forward planning, assessment, and coordination mechanisms and capacities for disaster response are essential. Together with adequate DRF, these reduce the ultimate direct and indirect economic and social consequences of disaster. 10. The NDMP and draft NFPP-IV outline an ambitious but important program of structural and non-structural DRR initiatives. However, the challenges identified above have constrained the translation of the country s DRM strategies and plans into action, resulting in disappointing progress towards strengthened resilience. Development partner assistance could play a significant role in addressing existing information, financing, capacity, and technical constraints to support the successful implementation of these plans. Support in the form of coordinating DRM activities, establishing a monitoring network, periodically assessing DRM progress, and reviewing priorities would also be extremely valuable. Development partners have a key

4 4 opportunity to support strengthened DRF and response, including addressing the current gap in the government s DRM policies and strategies regarding a national DRF strategy. As well as continuing efforts to enhance rural disaster resilience, any DRM support program in Pakistan should also consider the growing need for an increased focus on urban disaster resilience as urban areas continue to expand. 2. Government s Sector Strategy 11. As noted above, since the 2005 earthquake, DRM policy and strategy in Pakistan has moved from being largely response-oriented to a broader approach stressing DRR and preparedness. This approach was enshrined in the NDMP, which, as its preface indicates, represents a milestone in the history of Pakistan s DRM system. 3 In addition to a main volume that focuses on reducing disaster risk and enhancing the country s ability to manage disasters, the NDMP includes three supporting volumes focusing on (i) a human resource management plan that seeks to build a culture of safety and resilience at all levels utilizing knowledge, innovation, and education; (ii) a multi-hazard early warning system, seeking to enhance and strengthen early warning capacity; and (iii) guidelines for community-based DRM. Initiatives to address some of the NDMP s priority areas of action are already underway in various forms. 12. A national hazard and risk assessment was carried out in 2011, immediately before the NDMP was introduced, providing a baseline document for disaster risk-sensitive development planning at the national, provincial, and local levels. Specialized training courses have been organized on (i) flood, drought, coastal hazards, and earthquake risk reduction; (ii) DRM mainstreaming; and (iii) disaster risk communication. In addition, DRM has been integrated into the curriculum of mainstream universities, and a national disaster management institute and special purpose units have been established in a few universities to undertake further research and development on challenges related to disasters. A stock-taking exercise is currently underway to assess further the progress of the first phase of implementation of the NDMP. It is subsequently intended to review and re-prioritize remaining activities under the NDMP. The NDMA is also extensively engaged in improving DRM coordination functions and clarifying roles across different government levels, in recognition of key needs in these areas. 3. ADB s Sector Experience and Assistance Program a. ADB assistance 13. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has been a major partner of Pakistan in its effort to strengthen disaster resilience, and supports the country s reconstruction efforts after major disasters. ADB has committed more than $2.0 billion in loans and grants for reconstruction following major disasters in Pakistan since It has also provided significant support for flood risk management, including $240.0 million in standalone flood risk management projects alone and an additional $0.8 billion in other projects that include flood risk management and other DRR components. ADB s disaster response projects have focused mainly on constructing multi-hazard resilient infrastructure and providing complementary support to increase resilience ( build back better ) against future disasters. Reconstruction has focused on transport, irrigation, housing, flood protection, education, health, power, and livelihoods; and cross cutting support for capacity building, safeguards, and governance. 3 Government of Pakistan, Ministry of Climate Change, National Disaster Management Authority National Disaster Management Plan. Islamabad.

5 5 14. Following the 2005 earthquake, ADB established the Pakistan Earthquake Fund (PEF) 4 with an initial ADB grant of $80.0 million to support the government s response efforts. The PEF pooled $139.5 million in emergency grant financing from ADB, Australia, Belgium, Finland, and Norway. ADB also mobilized a $37.5 million cofinancing grant from the European Union to reconstruct schools in earthquake-affected areas. PEF funds in the amount of $137.5 million were allocated to the Earthquake Emergency Assistance Project. 5 In response to major floods in 2010 and 2011, ADB mobilized $3 million in grants through its Asia Pacific Disaster Response Fund for relief purposes in each case. ADB also implemented the 2010 Flood Emergency Reconstruction Project amounting to $650 million to help the government rehabilitate and reconstruct damaged transportation, irrigation, and flood-protection infrastructure. 6 The 2015 Flood Emergency Reconstruction and Resilience Project, was approved in response to the 2014 floods and focuses on rehabilitating and reconstructing damaged priority roads, bridges, irrigation, and flood protection infrastructure, and mainstreaming resilience in development planning The ADB portfolio is increasingly shifting towards risk reduction and preparedness, including financial preparedness, while also continuing to support reconstruction and rehabilitation projects in response to major events. ADB s Operational Plan for Integrated Disaster Risk Management, , stresses the need for an integrated approach that combines DRR, DRF, and climate change adaptation. 8 More recently approved projects, such as the Flood Emergency Reconstruction Project and proposed NDRMF anchor this approach by aiming to strengthen DRM capacity and resources, supporting structural and non-structural DRR activities, mainstreaming DRM in development, developing DRF instruments, and supporting immediate needs and capacity to deal effectively with residual disaster impacts. b. Lessons 16. The country assistance program evaluation of ADB s programs for Pakistan from 2002 to 2012 emphasized the need for ADB to improve its support for integrated disaster prevention and long-term preparedness. 9 It recommends that ADB further mainstream DRR measures in its infrastructure projects, and work closely with ministries and agencies to improve disaster resilience of infrastructure, as well as community preparedness. Lessons also indicate that limited government technical and financial capacity, as well as high levels of disaster risk, warrant comprehensive and sustained ADB support for all aspects of DRM in close coordination and partnership with specialized local and international agencies. Experience from ADB programs highlights the need to include well-targeted support for the vulnerable, community involvement in DRM, strong linkages with existing development programs, support for technical innovations for sustainability, multi-hazard resilience of investments, and effective coordination and monitoring of future DRM interventions. 4 ADB. Board Paper Pakistan Earthquake Fund. Manila. 5 ADB Report and Recommendation of the President to the Board of Directors: Proposed Loan and Grants to the Islamic Republic of Pakistan for the Earthquake Emergency Assistance Project. Manila. 6 ADB Report and Recommendation of the President to the Board of Directors: Proposed Loans and Technical Assistance Grant to the Islamic Republic of Pakistan for the Flood Emergency Reconstruction Project. Manila 7 ADB Report and Recommendation of the President to the Board of Directors: Proposed Loan and Technical Assistance Grant to the Islamic Republic of Pakistan for the Flood Emergency Reconstruction and Resilience Project. Manila. 8 ADB Operational Plan for Integrated Disaster Risk Management, Manila. 9 ADB Country Assistance Program Evaluation: Pakistan, Continuing Development Challenges. (CAP: PAK ). Manila.

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