State of the Insurance Industry: 21 st Century Resilience

Transcription

1 State of the Insurance Industry: 21 st Century Resilience The Importance of Insurance and Risk Mitigation in the Future of Cities and Towns Lloyd s Day Fullerton, California October 2, 2018

2 I.I.I. Mission Statement Improving public understanding of insurance... what it does and how it works 2

3 The State of the Industry Powerful Builders and Leaders

4 P/C industry net income after taxes Billions, 2018 dollars $ $ $ $15 $5 -$ Profits Doubled from a Year Ago Best First Half Since Through second quarter. Adjusted for inflation using the BLS CPI calculator. Sources: NAIC data, sourced from S&P Global Market Intelligence; Insurance Information Institute. 4

5 P/C Insurance Industry Combined Ratio* 3 Consecutive Years of U/W Profits; 1 st time since Best Combined Ratio Since 1949 (87.6) Higher CAT Losses, Shrinking Reserve Releases, Toll of Soft Market Hurricanes, Wildfires Drive CR Higher Sandy to date 18P Through Q2. *Excludes Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers Including M&FG, 2008=105.1, 2009=100.7, 2010=102.4, 2011=108.1; 2012:=103.2; 2013: = 96.1; 2014: = Sources: A.M. Best; ISO, a Verisk Analytics company; I.I.I. projection for

6 Direct Premium Growth, Annual Change 6% 5.8% 5.4% 4% GDP Growth 2% 0% -2% DPW Growth -4% Rising Auto Rates Driving Premium Growth - $337B at Second Quarter. All data through second quarter. SOURCES:NAIC data sourced through S&P Global Intelligence, Bureau of Economic Affairs, Insurance Information Institute. 6

7 09:Q2 10:Q1 10:Q4 11:Q3 12:Q2 13:Q1 13:Q4 14:Q3 15:Q2 16:Q1 16:Q4 17:Q3 18:Q2 15:Q2 15:Q3 15:Q4 16:Q1 16:Q2 16:Q3 16:Q4 17:Q1 17:Q2 17:Q3 17:Q4 18:Q1 18:Q2 Policyholder Surplus By Quarter Amount of Surplus Change from Prior Quarter ($ Billions) 5% $ % $ % 2% 1.6% $600 1% $500 0% -1% -0.4% $400-2% Tax Law Increased Surplus at Year-End 2017 and Makes Surplus 7 Growth a Bit More Volatile. $1.30 Surplus per $1 Premium. Sources: ISO, A.M.Best. 7

8 10 Key Ways Insurance Drives Economic Growth Safety/ Security Economic/ Financial Stability Development 1. Insurers are financial first responders 3. Insurers are capital protectors 4. Insurance is a partner in social policy 7. Insurers are community builders 8. Insurance enables infrastructure improvements 2. Insurers are risk mitigators 5. Insurance sustains the supply chain 6. Insurers are capital infusers 9. Insurers are innovation catalysts 10. Insurers are credit facilitators 8

9 The State of Resilience A Case Study: Flood Risk

10 1982 Union, Missouri, Flood A Storm for the Ages Bourbeuse River Record Crest 33.8 feet 12/5/1982 Source: 10

11 2015 Union, Missouri, Flood A Storm for the Ages Bourbeuse River Record Crest 34.3 feet 12/29/2019 Sources: CBSnews.com; fox2news.com 11

12 2017: A Record Year Of Catastrophe Losses Flooding events spurred 73% of federal disaster declarations Thunderstorm related losses 2 nd highest ever in U.S. $14 billion insured wildfire losses; California damage estimated ~$11 billion N.A. hurricane season recordbreaking insured & economic losses; disasters affected >25 million Americans Cyber: Risk continuing to increase Auto: Reaching epidemic proportions 12

13 A Confluence Of Disruptive Forces Continue To Impact Traditional Global Market Dynamics Catastrophes Economics Geopolitical Technology 13

14 The Insurance Coverage Gap Cost Consumers An Estimated $1.3 Trillion From Over the last decade, more than 70 percent of all catastrophes losses worldwide were uninsured. Flooding is not covered by standard homeowners insurance or commercial insurance policies, making it one of the largest uninsured risks for consumers. Source: Swiss Re; Wikimedia Commons; DOD 14

15 NFIP Payouts To The Small Group Of Americans With Flood Insurance Have Skyrocketed 78% Of NFIP's Payouts Have Occurred In The Last 13 Years Cost of Paid NFIP Claims Aug 2005: $18,000,000 Hurricane Katrina $16,000,000 $14,000,000 $12,000,000 $10,000,000 $8,000,000 Oct 2012: Superstorm Sandy Aug 2017: Hurricane Harvey $6,000,000 $4,000,000 $2,000, : FEMA Created Source: FEMA NFIP Year 15

16 Coverage Gaps Have Serious Consequences For American Families And Businesses 88% Of American Households Lack Flood Insurance Major Populations Without Flood Insurance (%): Texas 80% Florida 60% Puerto Rico 99% Source: McKinsey; FEMA NFIP 16

17 Building Resilience How Insurance Can Help

18 (Re)insurance Products Private Industry Case Studies FEMA Reinsurance NFIP NatCat Bonds Through a $150 million purchase of private reinsurance products, FEMA was able to recover approximately $1 billion, or an eighth of its total 2017 loses. By issuing new natural catastrophe bonds geared towards institutional investors, the NFIP can bring an estimated $500 million of additional reinsurance coverage. 40% 2018 FEMA Reinsurance Private Market Flood Products During 2017, the private flood insurance market added 50 new carriers. Direct private flood insurance premiums written reached $630 million, an increase of $217 million over Source: Insurance Journal; Houston Chronicle; Insurance Journal. 18

19 The Power of Marketing 19

20 Std. Deviation from Mean Education & Analysis Actuaries Climate Index Measuring Weather Extremes Seasonal Five-Year Moving Average, United States : Index Average is :Q3 1967:Q4 1974:Q1 1980:Q2 1986:Q3 1992:Q4 1999:Q1 2005:Q2 2011:Q3 2017:Q4 Index Measures Frequency of Extreme Events (Heat, Drought, Wind, Rain, Sea Level) Vs Average Source: Actuaries Climate Index, 20

21 Future Cities Lloyd s Initiative To Improve Resilience Prevent Failure Expedite Recovery Transform Performance Source: Lloyd s/arup, Future Cities: Building Infrastructure Resilience 21

22 We Must Overcome Political Gridlock Economic and Actuarially Sound Action Is Needed To Adapt Policies To The Realities Of 21 st Century Natural Catastrophes ALL POLITICS IS LOCAL 22

23 Thank you!