1. Overview of Disaster Risk Finance

Transcription

1 1. Overview of Disaster Risk Finance DRF should cover the financial aspect of all measures of comprehensive DRM system. Allocation between pre/post and choice of financial tools (e.g. contingency budget or/and risk transfer) are key and should reflect country specific circumstances. (Financing Tool) Pre Capacity Building Risk Identification Risk Reduction (Prevention) Preparedness Technology (R&D) Human Resource Development Risk Assessment, Awareness Raising Resilient Infrastructure Land Use Emergency Systems, Drills Public Sector (Sovereign) Ordinary Budget Individuals and Private Sector Ordinary Budget (investment) Allocation, Cost effectiveness Post Emergency Response Recovery Reconstruction Evacuation, Rescue Health and Living Support Restoration of Infrastructure Recovery of Industry and Economy Reconstruction of Buildings Rebuilding of Area/Community Contingency Budget (reserve fund, temporary tax) Emergency Credit Line (by donors) Risk Transfer (CAT bond, risk pool, insurance) Emergency Finance Risk Transfer (CAT bond, insurance) *provided by public and private financial institutions 1 2. Framework 2. Japan s of Post Case Disaster the Risk Great Finance East - Great Japan East Earthquake Japan Earthquake - - Japan continues to invest a great deal in pre-measures constantly, which contributes to the reduction of cost (impact) of disasters. Once huge disaster strikes, huge cost is financed mainly by Public sector --- Contingency budget (reserve fund, temporary tax etc.) Private sector --- Support from government (contingency budget), Insurance the Great East Japan Earthquake Economic Damage Public sector Contingency Budget ( ) (Revenue) Temporary imposition of special reconstruction taxes JPY 13trillion Non-tax revenue, Reduction of other expenditure JPY 13trillion Others JPY 6trillion Total (Expenditure) Humanity aid JPY 2.5trillion Public works JPY 13.4trillion Industry reconstruction JPY 4.5trillion Nuclear-accident-related JPY 2.1trillion Others(subsidy of local gvt. Etc.) JPY 9.5trillion (USD 207billion) Private sector Safety net loans Credit Guarantee Special Financial Support Insurance Damage of Houses Payment of claims Earthquake insurance JPY 1.2trillion Mutual aid JPY 0.9trillion *more than 90% of total claims were paid within 6 months of the earthquake. Ordinary year The Amounts and Composition of DRM Related Budget (Trillion yen) FY Prevention & Preparedness Land conservation Recovery & Rehabilitation Total (24.4%) 2.4 (57.3%) 0.7 (16.6%) (28.6%) 1.4 (47.0%) 0.7 (24.0%)

2 3. Disaster Risk Management - Development of DRF Tools - Comprehensive DRM system helps the development of DRF tools. Without such an enabling environment, effective, sustainable, and widely utilized tools will not develop. Risk Awareness Experience in disasters, education Risk Identification in each area Risk Assessment Data collection (data base) Risk Evaluation (rating organization) Risk Reduction (Prevention) Resilient Infrastructure, building Preparedness Clear recognition of demand for DRF Acceptance of financial burden (Relatively) Accurate risk/cost calculation Reduction of risk/cost of DRF (Japan s Case) Experience in disasters Awareness to risks and importance of DRM Growing living standard Establishment of General Insurance Rating Organization Development of data collection &provision Development of risk evaluation methods Grading based on resilience of building (good record of) well designed, effective post-disaster measures DRF works as incentive for better DRM Development of fire (incl. floods and storms) and earthquake insurance 3 4. Disaster Insurance in Japan - Evolution - It required long time and much experience for Japan to develop a comprehensive DRM system. Such development has enabled the evolution of disaster insurance in Japan. Establishment of fire insurance but natural disasters were not covered In 1887, the first fire insurance company was established. Fire insurance initially covered only straight fire (i.e. fire, explosion and lightning ). Establishment of DRM System basis for disaster insurance Until 1950 s, large-scale typhoons and earthquakes caused extensive damage and thousands of causalities. In 1960 s, Japan established a comprehensive DRM system. e.g. Disaster Countermeasures Basic Act (1961) Central Disaster Management Council (1962) Basic Disaster Management Plan (1963) Establishment of earthquake insurance & Expansion of fire insurance General Insurance Rating Organization of Japan was established in In 1966, earthquake insurance was established in response to the surge of public demands after the Niigata earthquake (M7.5) in Through 1960 s to 1980 s, insurance companies expanded the coverage of fire insurance to other natural disasters gradually (e.g. Typhoons, storms, flood etc.). Spread of Insurance / mutual aid (number of contract / number of households) Fire 85% (Fire Insurance: 48% Mutual aid: 37%) Earthquake 49% (Earthquake Insurance: 26% Mutual aid: 23%) 4 2

3 5. Development of Data Collection, Provision and Utilization Weather observation networks and earth monitoring systems have been developed with a long history and contributed to the evolution of disaster insurance. JMA: Surface weather observation(1873-), Radiosonde(1944-), Weather radar(1954-), Seismometers(1948-), Tilt meters(1949-), Tide gauges(1975-) MLIT: Hydrological observation(1950-), Water Disaster Statistics(1961-) JMA and MLIT have stored data and information on meteorology and other natural events in the past and provides them to various stakeholders. Collected and stored data and information are utilized as the basis of measures throughout the Disaster Risk Management package. Data Risk Identification (assessment, awareness raising) Hazard map (each disaster, each area) Development of risk evaluation (disaster model, calculation of premium, etc.) Preparedness Risk Reduction (Prevention) - Physical measures - Soft infrastructure Reconstruction -Build Back Better 5 6. Implication for international cooperation Comprehensive DRM & DRF strategy (capacity building) Post Disaster Finance domestic resource mobilization and fiscal soundness (capacity building) emergency credit line e.g. Stand-by Emergency Credit for Urgent Recovery (SECURE) sovereign Insurance e.g. Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative (PCRAFI) Development of Private Insurance enabling environment (See 3.) projecting design (e.g. Japan s Earthquake Insurance) Characteristics of Japan s Earthquake Insurance Risk pooling (transfer) through reinsurance Compulsory pooling (reinsurance) scheme Same risk for individual insurance companies through pooling and uniform premium Avoid adverse selection through automatic attachment to fire insurance Government involvement The government as reinsurer and supervisor Burden sharing scheme between the government and private sector Prompt disbursement Payment of insurance claims is not based on actual losses, but on simplified calculation method. Collaboration of insurance companies, new technologies, streamlined procedures, etc. 6 3

4 Nguyen Thu Thuy Specialist in the Department of Public asset Management Ministry of Finance Disaster risk in Vietnam Diverse terrain, long coastline (3,200 km), wide river delta are heavily influenced by climate change and natural disasters. According to statistics, VN is the 7th country in the world heavily influenced by climate change; each year natural disasters on average kill about 500 people and cause approximately % GDP loss. Heavily influenced from floods (flood and inundation), mainly in two low-lying plains (Mekong delta and Red River delta region). 1

5 Disaster risk in Vietnam With more than 3,200 km of coastline, Vietnam is affected by the rise of sea level. From 1998 to 2008, the rate of sea level rise in Vietnam was about 3mm per year It is forcasted that to 2100 the average temperature in Vietnam will increase to 3 0 C and sea level rise of 1 m; causing about 10% of the population is directly affected; 90% of paddy cultivation in Mekong Delta is completely flooded; 4.4% of Vietnam territory is permanently flooded. Disaster risk in Vietnam On average there are annually about 649 floods, hails, storms, floods, cyclones, landslides. In which flooding occurs the most frequenly (accounting for 49% of the amount; causing 58% of the damage); then come the storms (accounting for 13% of the number; causing 29% of the damage) Relative Frequency of Natural Disasters Low Medium Hight Earth Hail rain Flood, inudation, Flash flood Forst Land slide Typhoon, Tropical depression Forest fire Salt instution Tornado Drought 2

6 Disaster risk in Vietnam State support: Period : total cost of natural disaster recovery was between VND billion (averagely VND billion per year); ensuring support of 30% of damage value caused by natural disasters. The expenses primarily were used for emergency relief, failing to meet the requirements of production and business recovery. Disaster risk in Vietnam Level of natural disater Damage (%GDP) Damage value (VNĐ billion) Support funding( VNĐ billion) From State budget From other sources Average annually 0, Once in every 10 years Once in every 25 years Once in every 50 years Once in every 100 years Once in every 150 years Once in every 200 years 1,77 74, , , , , ,

7 Disaster risk in Vietnam Economic losses ( ): 263 recorded natural disaster events. 103 storm and 100 flood events. Total losses were 188,268 bil ( 8,965 mil USD); 58% of total losses was related to storm/cyclone and 38% to flood. Storm/cyclone had the highest average cost as compared to flood (USD 60 mil vs. USD 39 mil). Potential losses (WB, 2014): Annual expected losses was estimated at 0.9% of GDP. Once in every 100 years, Vietnam is estimated to face annual disaster losses in excess of 3.6% of GDP (around VND 150,000 bil at 2014 USD 7 bil). Disaster risk in Vietnam Economic losses ( ) Peril Number of Events Number of events with recorded damage Total Value of Damage (VND Bil) Coldwave Flash Flood/Landslip ,83 Flood ,439 Storm ,226 Tornado ,319 Other Total ,268 4

8 Disaster risk in Vietnam Social impacts: Total lives lost were 13,035 ( ), on average of 652 mortalities per year. As estimated, 59% of Vietnam total land area and 71% of its population were adversely affected by cyclones and floods (WB, 2010). Rising concern on effects by climate change (raising sea level) due to the fact that large population living in low-lying Mekong delta, Red river basin and narrow coastal strip (WB, 2007). The 2008 Vietnam floods (Oct-Nov) affected the north and central of Vietnam. It was the worst flood in Hanoi since 1984; causing 20 deaths; one meter of water - flooded city's streets, many crops were ruined; damage in Hanoi exceeded to VND bil (USD 177 mil) Overview of public asset in Vietnam According to the Law on the management and use of State asset in 2008, public assets are classified into 4 types: Offices; Land use rights; Means of transportation and machineries, Working equipments; Other assets as prescribed by law. Public asset assigned to State agencies, armed forces, public non-business units, organizations and enterprises with 100% of State capital for management and use. 5

9 Overview of public asset in Vietnam To December 31 st 2014, there have been units assigned to manage and use public assets with the total value of VND billion, in which: Assets are land use rights: VND billion (69.26%) Assets are houses: VND billion (24.07%) Assets are automobiles: VND billion (2.06%) The asset with original price of over VND 500 million : VND billion (4.59%) Other assets: VND 143 billion (0.02%) Overview of public asset in Vietnam Asset statistics: The business units manage and use the most public assets with a total value of VND billion (64% of the artifacts; 69% of the total value) The State agencies manage and use a total assets value of VND billion (32% of the artifacts; 27% of the total value) The mass organizations manage and use a total assets value of VND billion (3% of the artifacts; 3.7% of the total value) The Project Management Board manage and use the least public assets with a total value of VND billion (1% of the artifacts; 0.3% of the total value 6

10 Overview of public asset in Vietnam Or der Units Quantity Original price Pieces Proportion(%) Value (VND bil) Proportion (%) 1 The business units The State agencies The mass organizations 4 The Project Management Board , ,3 Total Disaster risk for public asset in Vietnam From 1989 to 2013, risks of storms, floods caused major damage to public asset; in which risks due to storm caused about 90% of damage. On average there were annually 649 floods, hails, storms, floods, cyclones, landslides; causing average damage of VND billion per storm and VND 821 billion per flood. Apart from the above mentioned natural disasters, earthquakes, hails, cyclone also caused significant losses. 7

11 Disaster risk for public asset in Vietnam Type of public assests Total value of damage (VND bil) Proportion Cultural, social welfare works Flood Storm Total Flood (%) Storm (%) Classroom Patient room 1, Public transportation, telecommunications, electricity works Roads (km) Bridges, canals (pieces) Broadcasting stations Power poles Transformer stations Law prescrition on disaster risk management for public asset in Vietnam The Law on Natural Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (2014); The Law on State Budget (2015); Decree No.94/2014/ND-CP on natural disaster prevention and mitigation funds. No short-term government funding gaps: Contingency (central and local level) funds have been adequate to finance post-disaster relief and recovery expenditures. 30/63 provinces have set-up natural disaster prevention and mitigation funds; 14 have collected contributions. 8

12 Law prescrition on disaster risk management for public asset in Vietnam The draft on public assets (waiting for the Prime Minister s decision) has contents relating to disaster risk management for public asset; in which Clause 3, Article 6, defines the purchase of insurance for public assets. Financial policies relating to the field of disaster risk for public asset are under the phase of policy framework making; in which, the insurance sector has had some pilot programs. Law prescrition on natural disaster risk management for public asset in Vietnam To promote disaster risk management for public asset, the support of international organizations and countries with advanced financial strategies in the field of disaster risk management is necessary: Technical assistance for policy/regulation Education for raising public awareness on natural disaster risk financing. Possible funding aid for policy development about natural disaster risk financing. 9

13 Thanks for your attention 10

14 OECD ADBI Workshop on Disaster Risk Finance in Asia Tokyo, 24 th June 2016 Thomas Kessler, Director, Head South East & East Asia, Global Partnerships Source: Global Partnerships Tokyo, June

15 Climate risks are highly inter-connected GHG emissions Storms Flood Sea level Drought Ecosystems Climate Change Food security GHG regulation Health effects Energy security Investments Migration Conflict Global Partnerships Tokyo, June Cooperation amongst public private Stakeholders is key to implement DRFI schemes Sovereing and Subsovereign Government Authorities and Agencies Development Financial Institutions Multi- and Bi- Lateral Organizations NGOs Private insurance and reinsurance companies Broker and intermediaries Corporates Micro Finance Institutions Capital Market Investors Third Party Technology Service providers Modeling companies Independent Experts and Consultants Media Global Partnerships Tokyo, June

16 ADB Technical Assistance Strengthening City Disaster Risk Financing Objective: to develop tailor-made DRF solutions for cities Project phases each with public tender: - Risk Profiling and city selection - Assessment of potential DRF options - Evaluation / selection of DRF options - Implementation of DRF scheme Methodology: - Estimate the likelihood of varying levels of damage - Analyze the cities financing gap - Consider the existing legal and regulatory system - Evaluate available feasible and relevant DRF options Achievement: - Enhanced city-level DRF knowledge and understanding - Pilot for government consideration of local and national DRF solutions Global Partnerships Tokyo, June The value Reinsurance Cooperation with Development Banks Complementary strengths in terms of networks and insurance expertise. Credibility by virtue of sovereign loan relationships Alignment of interest in respect commercial viability required for sustainability of projects. Development Banks are considered more neutral advisors compared to private sector companies. Very important risk advisory and risk intermediation role (WB/ADB as instigator of almost all public sector risk financing schemes), albeit this works needs to be scaled up by an order of magnitude. Global Partnerships Tokyo, June

17 The challenge of Reinsurance Cooperation with Development Banks Limited number of DRF champions within development banks and still general lack of awareness in larger organization on utility of DRF solutions. Oftentimes underestimated that banking and insurance are two different industries with still limited understanding of the other industry. Although the challenge is on the demand and not on the supply side, we see often supply-led insurance initiatives introduced by development banks. Public procurement rules need to become more flexible to attract long term private sector interest to invest. Compromise required to balance out the legitimate need to avoid potential conflicts of interest, but at the same time avoids the free rider problem. Global Partnerships Tokyo, June Global Partnerships Tokyo, June 2016

18 Insured catastrophe losses geographical distribution in percentage 49% 46% 60% 15% 16% 21% 18% 15% 15% 8% 6% 3% 6% 7% 1% y avg Source: Swiss Re Economic Global Partnerships Research & Tokyo, Consulting June and 2016 Cat Perils. Some considerations for a more effective implementation of DRFI schemes Help clients with cost benefit analysis of various financing approaches (reserve funds, contingent loans, re-insurance) by developing toolkits. Promote the concept of sovereign capital management to better understand the risk as a basis for the political consensus and decision making process. Public tendering for upscalable end to end DRFI projects. Link Sovereign sustainable infrastructure financing with a Nat Cat Budget Insurance protection. Partially subsidize small upscallable subsovereign pilot schemes rising into selfsustainable local /national DRFI Programs. Global Partnerships Tokyo, June

19 Trust Collaboration - Passion Commitment Ownership Leadership Execution Pilot Local - National Regional Global Partnerships Tokyo, June Many thanks Global Partnerships Tokyo, June

20 Legal notice 2016 Swiss Re. All rights reserved. You are not permitted to create any modifications or derivative works of this presentation or to use it for commercial or other public purposes without the prior written permission of Swiss Re. The information and opinions contained in the presentation are provided as at the date of the presentation and are subject to change without notice. Although the information used was taken from reliable sources, Swiss Re does not accept any responsibility for the accuracy or comprehensiveness of the details given. All liability for the accuracy and completeness thereof or for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information contained in this presentation is expressly excluded. Under no circumstances shall Swiss Re or its Group companies be liable for any financial or consequential loss relating to this presentation. Global Partnerships Tokyo, June