Facts & Figures January June 2010

Transcription

1 Facts & Figures January June

2 Contents Page SEB Group 3 23 Asset quality Bond portfolios Divisional level Merchant Banking Retail Banking Wealth Management Life Baltic Macro update

3 To be the leading Nordic corporate Bank Share of total income 20 (%) SEB 1) Nordic peers 2) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Large Corporates & Institutions Life Asset management Retail 1) Excluding Retail Germany 2) Aggregated income distribution of Swedbank, SHB, Nordea, Danske Bank and DnB NOR. Business units only (indicative) 3

4 We have the credentials! Strong customer base Large companies 1,800 Financial institutions 700 SMEs Product excellence Cash management globally Scandinavian currencies globally Nordic stock broker Nordic and Baltic investment bank Custody Nordics and Baltics Nordic asset management SMEs Sweden Passionate people 400,000 Private individuals 4 million 1) 1) Excluding Retail Germany 4

5 Organisation Chairman of the Board Marcus Wallenberg Internal Audit Agneta Brevenhag * President & CEO Annika Falkengren Group IT Ulf Thorstensson Business Support & Group Staff CFO Jan Erik Back Group Operations Pia Warnerman Bo Magnusson, Deputy CEO Group Credits & Group Risk Control Johan Andersson Merchant Banking Retail Banking Wealth Management Life Baltic Magnus Carlsson Mats Torstendahl Fredrik Boheman Anders Mossberg Martin Johansson * Reports directly to the Board 5

6 Share of profit before credit losses Jan Jun 2010 Germany Lithuania Estonia 1% Latvia 5% 4% Finland Denmark 5% 6% 14% 15% 50% Sweden Wealth Management Life 9% 13% 15% Baltic 6% Merchant Banking 57% Norway Retail Banking Geography Adjusted for Other Divisions Adjusted for Other 6

7 SEB Group Income, Expenses and Operating profit, SEK m 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, ,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Q1-05 Q1-05 Q2-05 Q2-05 Q3-05 Q3-05 Q4-05 Q4-05 Q1-06 Q1-06 Excluding portfolios Income Expenses Q2-06 Q2-06 Q3-06 Q4-06 Operating profit Including: One-off charges of SEK 890m in Q Sales of Baltic properties in Q4 20 of SEK 785m SEK 600m redundancies and SEK 780m VPC divest in Q4- SEK 594m goodwill write-down in Q1 SEK 2,394m goodwill write-down in Q2 and SEK 1,3bn capital gain on repurchased bond Q3-06 Q4-06 Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q3- Q4- Q4- Q1- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q3- Q4- Q1-10 Q4- Q2-10 Q1-10 Q2-10 7

8 Net interest and Net fee and commission income SEB Group, SEK m 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Q1-06 Q2-06 Q3-06 Q4-06 Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1-10 Q2-10 Net interest income Net fee and commissions 8

9 Key figures SEB Group Change Q2 Jan-Jun Q1 Q2 Jan-Jun SEK m Operating income 9,821 19,193 5% -25% -22% Operating expenses 6,619 12,986 4% -27% -20% Profit before credit losses etc 3,202 6,2 7% -23% -26% Operating profit 2,580 3, % 51% Net profit 2,004 2, % Return on Equity, % Cost / income ratio Credit loss level, % Basel II (without transitional floors) Core Tier I capital ratio, % 12, 12, 11,71 11,31 11,31 Tier I capital ratio, % 14,31 14,31 13,88 13, 13, Risk-weighted assets, SEKbn

10 Net interest income analysis SEB Group, SEK m H vs. H1 20 Q vs. Q Q vs. Q2 20 H ,274 Q ,875 Q2 20 5,370 Lending margin 3 Lending margin 9 Lending margin 100 Lending volume -491 Lending volume 1 Lending volume -244 Deposit margin -1,050 Deposit margin -35 Deposit margin -478 Deposit volume -174 Deposit volume 9 Deposit volume -71 Funding & other -1,896 Funding & other 236 Funding & other -582 H ,970 Q ,5 Q ,5 10

11 Fee and commission income Gross quarterly development Q Q SEB Group, SEK m Capital market driven Non-capital market driven 2,500 2,000 1,500 Securities transaction driven Value driven performance driven 1,000 Deal driven * New issues & advisory * Q adjusted for gross commission on security lending, SEK 200m Secondary market & derivatives Custody & mutual funds Payments, cards, structured lending, deposits, guarantees Other 11

12 Impact from exchange rate fluctuations SEB Group Feb 20 Apr 20 SEK/EUR Period-End Jun 20 Aug 20 Oct 20 Dec 20 Feb 2010 Apr 2010 Jun Feb 20 Apr 20 SEK/USD Period-End Jun 20 Aug 20 Oct 20 Dec 20 Feb 2010 Apr 2010 Jun 2010 SEK m Q2-10/Q2- Q2-10/Q1-10 YTD-10/YTD- Total income Total expenses Net credit losses Operating profit SEK bn Jun-10/Dec- Loans to the public -32 Deposits from the public -18 RWA - Basel II -16 Total assets

13 Assets under management SEB Group, SEK bn Assets under management year-end 20 1,356 Inflow (11%) Outflow (-9%) Net inflow of which: 28.8 Sweden 8.7 Other Nordic 10.0 Germany 6.1 Baltic countries and Poland 2.4 Other and Eliminations 1.6 Acquisition/disposal net Change in value -57 Assets under management June ,328* * Of which, not eliminated: Retail Banking 86 Wealth Management 1,258 Life

14 A strong balance sheet structure June 2010 Balance sheet structure Liquid assets Cash & Lending Financial Institutions Net Bond portfolio Net Other trading Household Lending Deposits Financial Institutions Funding <1 year Funding, remaining maturity >1 year Short-term funding Banking book Other Lending Deposits from the public Stable funding Equity Assets Equity & Liabilities 14

15 Net liquidity position SEB s matched funding horizon Months Loans to deposits ratio; %* 200% 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 155% Q NB: Increased due to volatile repo volumes 10 Loans to deposit ratio excl repos, %* 5 0 Q4- Q2- Q4- Q2- Q4- Q % 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 142% Q *excl re-classified bonds 15

16 Deposits, excl repos, from the public Corporate deposits +100% in 5 years SEK m 900, , , , , , ,000 Public sector Private sector Corporate sector Total deposits 200, ,000 0 Q Q Q Q Q1 20 Q3 20 Q1 20 Q3 20 Q1 20 Q3 20 Q

17 Funding structure SEB Group, SEK 1,580bn, June 2010 Deposits - Financial Institutions 13.0% Mortgage Covered Bonds Sweden 10.1% Deposits - General Public 42.2% Deposits - Central Banks 7.6% CPs/CDs 10.8% Subordinated debt 2.0% Mortgage Covered Bonds Germany 2.5% Schuldscheins and Reg Bonds 1.3% Public Covered Bonds Germany 4.4% Senior debt 6.3% 17

18 Long-term funding Maturity profile SEK bn 0 <1Y 1-2Y 2-3Y 3-4Y 4-5Y 5-7Y 7-10Y >10Y Subordinated Debt Covered Bonds non SEK, Swe Covered Bonds SEK, Swe Senior Unsecured Mortgage Pfandbriefe, Ger Public Pfandbriefe, Ger

19 Funding raised with original maturity > 1 year SEK bn Instrument Q Q Q3 2010* Yankee CD Senior unsecured SEB AG Senior unsecured SEB AB Structured bonds Covered bonds SEB AG Covered bonds SEB AB Hybrid tier Total *Until August 27 19

20 European 5Y SEN CDS (bp) 20 SHB DnB NOR Nordea Danske HSBC SEB StanChart Swedbank BNP Credit suisse Commerz INTNED Deutsche Bank Intesa DPostbank Barclays SOCGEN KBC CASA UniCredit BPM Santander Popolare Lloyds RBS BBVA Mpaschi Dexia Bankinter Popular BoI BCP BPI BES Pastor AIB Alpha NBG Eurobank Piraeus "The Nordics CDS spreads continue to tighten at a more rapid pace than European peers" Source: UBS Sept 2, 2010

21 CEBS and SEB "As expected, the Nordic banks screened strongly in the much-anticipated C-EBS stress-test, with an average Tier 1 of 9.8% in 2011E relative to a European average 8.6% under the most stressed scenario. Further, given that risk-weighted assets are calculated under transitional rules in each of the adverse scenarios, we view the headline Tier 1 ratios as understating Nordic capital strength on a Europeanrelative basis." Source: UBS 21

22 Dividend development SEK m 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Total dividend Net profit DPS*, SEK Pay-out ratio 40% 38% 32% 33% 0% 172% 30% Dividend policy: 40% of net profit (Earnings per share) over the business cycle *No. shares adjusted for rights issue 22

23 Capital adequacy SEB Group Total capital ratio, % Tier 1 capital ratio, % Core Tier 1 (from 20) Basel II (without transition rules) SEK bn Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Mar Jun Capital base Risk-w. Assets Target: A Tier 1 capital ratio of 10% over the business cycle 23

24 Capital adequacy and RWA SEB Group - Basel II without transitional rules SEB risk class migration, by quarter Corporate and inter-bank portfolios SEK bn Risk class migration, excl. default To/from default Total Risk-weighted assets SEK bn Dec Market and Operational Risk 15 Migration FX effects Other Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q Q Jun

25 Asset quality 25

26 Credit portfolio* On & off balance, SEK bn Jun '10 (Mar '10) Swedish Nordic** German Baltic Total Corporates 325 (319) 164 (159) 110 (1) 56 (59) 655 (646) Property Management 126 (117) 18 (21) 78 (79) 25 (26) 248 (244) Households 324 (314) 46 (46) 90 (92) 54 (56) 514 (5) Public Administration 16 (20) 2 (1) 64 (64) 4 (5) 86 (90) Total non-banks 791 (770) 229 (227) 343 (344) 140 (146) (1 487) 1% Banks 104 (144) 42 (46) 64 (62) 1 (2) 212 (254) Total 896 (914) 271 (273) 4 (406) 141 (148) (1 741) -2% -1% 0% -5% -2% * Based on SEB's operations ** Including other 26

27 Credit portfolio* On & off balance, SEK bn SEB Group Dec '06 Dec ' Dec ' Dec ' Mar '10 Jun '10 % Corporates % Property Management % Households % Public Administration % Total non-banks % Banks % Total % SEB Group Dec '06 Dec ' Dec ' Dec ' Mar '10 Jun '10 Δ Q2 Lending * 937 1,112 1,362 1,3 1,235 1, Contingent Liabilities Derivative Instruments Credit Portfolio 1,316 1,552 1,934 1,816 1,741 1, * Before loan loss reserves, excluding repos & debt instruments 27

28 Rating of credit portfolio June 2010 Total credit portfolio excl. Households* (%) Of which, Corporates* (%) 38% 20% 33% 23% 26% 39% 5% 4% 8% 4% Risk Class '1-4 '5-7 '8-10 '11-12 '13-16 S&P AAA/A- BBB BB B+/B B-/D Risk Class '1-4 '5-7 '8-10 '11-12 '13-16 S&P AAA/A- BBB BB B+/B B-/D Household (EAD, IRB reported) 30% 44% PD (%) 16% 7% 3% 1% 0< < < 1 1< 5 5< 50 50< 100 * Including repos 28

29 Credit portfolio - households SEK bn Mortgage Other Dec ' Mar' Jun' Sep' Dec ' Mar '10 Jun '10 Mortgage Other Dec ' Dec ' Mar '10 Jun '10 Dec ' Dec ' Mar '10 Jun '10 Dec ' Dec ' Mar '10 Jun '10 Nordic* German Baltics * Incl. other 29

30 Credit portfolio corporates SEK bn SEB Group Other "Nordic" - Retail Baltic Germany - Larger "Nordic" - Larger Q4 '06 Q4 ' Q4 ' Q4 ' Q1 '10 Q2 '10 Geography based on SEB's operations 30

31 Development of NPLs SEK bn Non-performing loans 13.8% of lending Individually assessed Portfolio assessed % of lending 1.0% of lending 30.6% of lending 0 Q1 ' Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 '10 Q2 Q1 ' Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 '10 Q2 Q1 ' Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 '10 Q2 Q1 ' Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 '10 Q2 Nordic Germany Baltics Ukraine & Russia 31

32 Level of net credit losses, % Nordics Baltics Jan-Jun '10 Germany Jan-Jun '10 SEB Group Jan-Jun ' Jan-Jun '10 32

33 NPLs & reserves SEB Group, SEK bn Dec ' Mar ' Individually assessed loans Impaired loans, gross Specific reserves Collective reserves Off Balance sheet reserves Specific reserve ratio 44% 43% 42% 45% 49% 52% 54% Total reserve ratio 69% 72% 72% 72% 70% 77% 77% Portfolio assessed loans Loans past due > 60 days Restructured loans Collective reserves Reserve ratio 44% 41% 37% 40% 45% 46% 48% Non-performing loans Total reserves NPL coverage ratio 65% 66% 63% 65% 65% 70% 71% Non-performing loans / Lending 0.9% 1.1% 1.5% 1.7% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% Jun ' Sep ' Dec ' Mar '10 Jun '10 33

34 SEB Group net credit losses SEK m Net credit losses, quarterly Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Net write-offs Net specific provisions Net collective provisions of which: Individually assessed loans Portfolio assessed loans Net credit losses Net credit loss level Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q Q

35 Credit portfolio Total exposure: EUR 14.8 bn (SEK 141 bn) Baltic countries, EUR bn Banks Public Admin Households Property Mgmt Corporates Dec ' Dec ' Dec ' Mar '10 Jun '10 Dec ' Dec ' Dec ' Mar '10 Jun '10 Dec ' Dec ' Dec ' Mar '10 Jun '10 Estonia Lativa Lithuania 19% -4% -9% -3% -3% 12% 4% -15% -6% -3% 29% 8% -17% -3% -2% Growth rates in local currency 35

36 Baltic lending to the public* EUR bn Lending to the public Credit loss reserves Q1 20 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 20 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 20 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Lending to the public, SEK bn Q2 * Excluding reclassified bonds 36

37 SEB Baltic asset quality Net credit losses Q1 20 Q2 2010, SEK m 2,000 1,500 1, Estonia Latvia Lithuania SEB Baltic Net Credit Losses SEK m % of Estonia Latvia Lithuania Total Q2 Total Net Write-offs % Net Specific Provisions % Net Collective Provisions % of which: Individually assessed loans % Portfolio assessed loans % Net Credit Losses % 37

38 NPLs & reserves SEB Baltic, June 2010, SEK m Estonia Latvia Lithuania SEB Baltic Dec 20 Individually assessed loans Impaired loans, gross 1,773 3,4 7,561 12,743 13,932 Specific reserves 1,126 1,720 3,912 6,759 6,632 Collective reserves 398 1,119 1,225 2,741 2,467 Off balance sheet reserves Specific reserve ratio 64% 50% 52% 53% 48% Total reserve ratio 86% 83% 68% 75% 65% Portfolio assessed loans Loans past due > 60 days, gross 1,043 2,182 1,480 4,705 4,440 Restructured loans Collective reserves 581 1, ,640 2,267 Reserve ratio 53% 54% 43% 50% 48% Non-performing loans 2,865 5,786 9,353 18,003 18,684 Total reserves 2,1 4,143 5,977 12,227 11,416 NPL coverage ratio 74% 72% 64% 68% 61% 38

39 Bond portfolios 39

40 Bond Investment Portfolio* Portfolio breakdown, 30 June, 2010 Structured Credits 544 positions, well diversified across products, asset classes and geographical areas 48% of the portfolio volume is rated Aaa/AAA, 12% below investment grade During 2010, 77 positions have been downgraded whereof 32 positions from AAA During 2010, 3 positions have been upgraded Mark-to-Market prices are applied to almost all positions very small amount of holdings classified as level 3 Average maturity ~3 years Annual amortisation ~SEK 8bn Financials Senior FRNs Maturity is 6M - 5Y, weighted average life is 1.7Y Bond investment portfolio SEK 75bn Volume in SEK bn (% of portfolio) 14% 3% 83% Loans & Receivables (MTM not recorded) Held for Trading (MTM over income) Available for Sale (MTM over equity) * Net of short and fully matched positions; excluding holdings in the insurance business 40

41 Bond Investment Portfolio Portfolio breakdown by geography, 30 June, 2010 and financial effects Product UK Spain Europe Other US Australia/ NZ Total Volume Financials 11.3% 9.0% 33.1% 41.2% 5.4% 27.0 Covered Bonds Structured Credits 0% 96% 4% 0% 0% % 6.5% 40.0% 35.3% 0.8% 39.0 ABS 1.0% 2.1% 3.5% 1.4% 0.0% 3.1 CDO 0.4% 0.0% 3.3% 4.0% 0.0% 3.0 CLO 1.4% 0.0% 12.8% 13.0% 0.0% 10.6 CMBS 1.6% 0.0% 6.6% 0.6% 0.0% 3.5 CMO 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 0.0% 2.9 RMBS prime RMBS non-prime 12.8% 4.4% 13.8% 3.1% 0.8% % 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 0.0% 2.3 Bond investment Q2 Q1 Q2 Jan - Dec portfolio, SEK m Structured credits Financial institutions Covered bonds etc Income effect Structured credits Financial institutions Covered bonds etc Equity effect Total recognized Structured credits Financial institutions Covered bonds etc Fair value of reclassified securities Total fair value

42 Divisional level 42

43 Operating profit before credit loss provisions per division Jan Jun 2010 vs. Jan Jun 20 SEK m 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, ,000-2,000 Merchant Banking Retail Banking Jan-Jun 20 Jan-Jun 2010 Income Op.profit RoE before credit losses Sweden: -13% -30% 14% Card: 0% -3% 25% Wealth Management RoE Jan - Jun % 17.1% 21.5% 32.8% Neg * Retail ex. Germany * Life Baltic 43

44 Summary per division Jan Jun 2010 Merchant Banking Retail Banking Wealth Management Life Baltic Other Group Operating profit, SEK m 4, ,117-1,402-2,249 3,655 Business equity, SEK bn ** *** 99.1 * Return on equity, % Neg 5.37 Cost / income ratio RWA, SEK bn, Basel II**** RWA, SEK bn, Basel I ,0 Tax Rate 28.0% 23.4% 28.0% 12.0% 13.8% * Average shareholders' equity ** Where of Sweden 7.0bn, Germany 4.3bn and Cards 2.7bn *** Where of Estonia 3.5bn, Latvia 4.3bn and Lithuania 4.0bn **** Basel II without transitional floors 44

45 Lending to the public* SEK bn Q1 Q2 Q3** Q4** Q1** Q2** Q3** Q4** Q1** Q2** MB Retail Banking RB Sweden RB Germany RB Cards Wealth Management Life Baltic Baltic Estonia Baltic Latvia Baltic Lithuania Other/Elim SEB Group 1,9 1,132 1,226 1,297 1,317 1,305 1,2 1,188 1,204 1,226 * After credit loss reserves ** Including re-classified bonds 45

46 Deposits from the public SEK bn Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q MB Retail Banking RB Sweden RB Germany RB Cards Wealth Management Life Baltic Baltic Estonia Baltic Latvia Baltic Lithuania Other/Elim SEB Group

47 Full-time equivalents, end of quarter Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q MB 2,742 2,760 2,719 2,698 2,697 2,650 2,582 2,539 2,529 2,530 Retail Banking 5,3 5,530 5,338 5,275 5,127 5,171 5,0 4,974 4,792 4,932 RB Sweden 2,723 2,865 2,728 2,710 2,621 2,642 2,515 2,512 2,531 2,674 RB Germany 1,802 1,830 1,794 1,746 1,702 1,716 1,687 1,661 1,476 1,462 RB Cards Wealth Management 1,160 1,143 1,123 1,8 1,064 1, , Life 1,222 1,235 1,250 1,226 1,206 1,196 1,184 1,173 1,175 1,173 Baltic 3,366 3,469 3,420 3,353 3,353 3,285 3,252 3,3 2,957 2,937 Baltic Estonia 986 1, Baltic Latvia , Baltic Lithuania 1,368 1,423 1,439 1,464 1,492 1,432 1,400 1,306 1,239 1,226 Other 7,412 7,5 7,578 7,493 7,210 7,115 6,906 6,783 6,6 6,550 SEB Group 21,210* 21,64521,42821,131 20,656 20,43019,912 19,562 19,032 19,1 * Whereof 1,039 encompasses the consolidated acquisitions of Factorial bank in Ukraine and Key Asset Management. 47

48 Merchant Banking Magnus Carlsson Head of Merchant Banking SEK m Jan Jun Total income 8,865-21% Interest, net 3,978-29% Commission, net 2,503-10% Financial, net 2,337-13% Total expenses -4,173-1% Profit bef. credit losses 4,692-33% Credit losses, net % Operating profit 4,619-27% RoE, % C/I Highlights Strong market position with further enhanced client relations in a market with higher volatility Strategic initiatives in Nordics and Germany gaining momentum with recruitments and increased client activity Solid asset quality reflected in the low lending loss provisions All business areas show increased customer activities 48

49 Merchant Banking SEK m Excl. MTM in investment portfolio Income Expenses 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1-10 Q2-10 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Operating profit Excl. MTM in investment portfolio Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1-10 Q

50 Share of income and result by area Jan Jun 2010, per cent of total Income Operating profit Total = SEK 8,865m Total = SEK 4,619m Global Transaction Services Global Transaction Services 18% 48% Corporate Banking 12% 53% 34% 35% Corporate Banking Trading and Capital Markets Trading and Capital Markets 50

51 Trading & Capital Markets Diversified earnings, client driven activities Trading and Capital Markets income by main product cluster, excl. investment portfolios 8% 11% 7% 5% 6% 22% 15% 11% 8% 8% -2% 3% 6% 12% 44% 46% 59% 50% 44% 45% 46% 26% 28% 33% 38% 41% 36% 44% Q1 - Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 - -3% 21% 19% 63% 21% 46% Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-3% 8% 30% 34% 24% 6% 7% 6% 34% 22% 28% 22% 30% 30% 34% 38% 41% 36% Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-10 4% 29% 29% 38% Q2 Strong client driven performance across all product areas on back of higher market activity and volatility Equities confirmed the clear number one position on the Nordic and Baltic stock exchanges and was awarded the best Equity Research house in Sweden by Financial Hearings Equities Capital Markets FX Structured Derivatives and other TCM 51

52 Merchant Banking Market shares Nordic and Baltic stock exchanges Jan Jun 2010 Nordic ECM transactions, by Bookrunner* Jan Jun 2010 (EUR m) SEB 9.1% SEB 2,378 SHB 6.6% DnB NOR 1,495 Credit Suisse 6.4% Nordea 1,266 Nordnet 4.8% JP Morgan 1,257 Deutsche Bank 3.9% Carnegie 1,048 Source: The Nordic Stock exchanges * Rank based on IPOs or follow-ons, Nordic stock exchanges Source: Dealogic 52

53 Merchant Banking Syndicated loans Swedish Mandated Lead Arranger Jan 2010 Jun 2010 Nordic Mandated Lead Arranger Jan 2010 Jun 2010 Nordea 29,0% Nordea 21,3% SEB 13,9% SEB 9,9% Swedbank 9,8% Danske Bank 9,6% Danske Bank 8,7% DnB NOR 9,2% DnB NOR 8,1% Swedbank 6,0% Source: Dealogic Analytics 53

54 Custody volume development 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Assets under custody, SEK bn No of transactions/day 210, , , ,000 90,000 60,000 30, NB: CCP (Central Counterparty Clearing House) introduced in autumn of 20, affecting number of transactions going forward 54

55 Merchant Banking rankings July 2010 June 2010 June 2010 Best Investment Bank in Finland Best Brokerage Firm Nordic Countries by Extel Surveys Best Research House in Sweden June 2010 Best Trade Bank in Western Europe 2010 May 2010 March 2010 January 2010 January 2010 January 2010 November 20 October 20 October 20 September 20 European Property Investment Award No. 1 FX House in the Nordic region No. 1 Equity House in the Nordic region Best Overall Bank for Cash Management, Nordic Region Best Bank for Liquidity Management, Nordic Region Best Bank for Risk Management, Nordic Region Best Sub Custodian in all Nordic & Baltic countries Best bank in the Nordic region for Cash Management, Financial Supply Chain and Risk Management Most valuable real estate brand Germany No. 1 Corporate Finance House in the Nordics (Top ranked in all 4 countries) Best Real Estate Bank in the Nordic & Baltic Region Second Best Real Estate Bank in Germany Third Best Real Estate Bank Globally 55

56 Retail Banking Mats Torstendahl Head of Retail Banking SEK m Jan Jun Total income 5,421-9% Interest, net 3,6-14% Commission, net 2,159-1% Expenses -4,197-5% Profit bef. credit losses 1,224-20% Credit losses, net % Operating profit % RoE, % C/I Highlights Focus on enhancing the customer experience yielding results, applicable to all channels where we meet customers Accessibility has improved sharply Growth among customers on track - 3,000 new SME clients YTD In particular Retail Sweden growing in lending and deposits, increases in the 12 months to June of 12% and 4% respectively Gradually declining credit losses contributed to operating profit of SEK 786m 56

57 57 Retail Banking SEK m Operating profit ,000 1,500 2,000 Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1-10 Q ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1-10 Q2-10 Income Expenses

58 Share of income and result by area Jan Jun 2010, per cent of total Income Profit before credit losses Total = SEK 5,421m Total = SEK 1,224m SEK m Cards Sweden Sweden % 52% Germany % Germany Cards

59 Business volume development by area SEK bn Q change vs. Q2 20 (local currency) Mortgages Other lending Deposits Sweden % 68 1% % Germany 59-3% 21-4% 44-8% Deposit breakdown, Percent of total deposits, Jun 2010 Transaction account private Savings account private Retail Total Sweden Germany 46 % 7% 27 % 20 % 49 % 8% Transaction account corporate & public Savings account corporate & public 19 % % % 4% 1% 59 % 59

60 Retail Sweden SEK m Jan Jun Total income 2,823-13% Interest, net 1,911-18% Commission, net 763 5% Total expenses -1,982-3% Profit bef. credit losses % Credit losses, net % Operating profit % RoE, % C/I Total lending 360,500 12% Total deposits 160,700 4% Highlights Several investments for growth in the Swedish SME-segment were made, e.g. skill building and recruitment of corporate advisors Corporate and real estate lending in general, and real estate related lending in particular, increases Availability improved as the telephone bank added staff and improved processes Growth in Private mortgage lending slowed down in relation the full year of 20 The highly competitive "Placeringskonto" (fixed term account) continued to attract deposits, SEK 14bn since launch 60

61 Net interest income and volumes Retail Sweden SEK m Net Interest Income distribution SEK bn Mortgages % Q1 20 Q Private Corporate Margins Mortgages Other lending Deposits Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 10 SEK bn Other lending* % SEK bn Deposits Private Corporate Margins Private Corporate Margins Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 10 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 10 * Excluding leasing %

62 Swedish mortgages private market Fixed / floating interest rates, market share, per cent 100% Fixed Floating Volume Sales 25% 80% 20% 60% 15% 40% 10% 20% 5% 0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q % Note: Fixed as presented here include mortgages with interest rate fixed for 1 year or more Floating as presented here include mortgages with interest rate fixed for 3 months or less 62

63 Market share development Sweden, per cent Corporate Private 20 Mortgages* 20 Other lending 30 Deposits Q2 06 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q Q2 06 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q Q2 06 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 10 Note: Other lending and deposits=seb Parent Bank Sweden, i.e. not only Retail Sweden * New measurement method from Q4 20. Lowers the volume market share with approximately 0.2 percentage points 63

64 Retail Germany SEK m Jan Jun Total income 1,228-10% Interest, net % Commission, net 541-7% Total expenses -1,473-12% Profit bef. credit losses -245 Credit losses, net -95 Operating profit -340 RoE, % C/I Total lending 80,600-13% Total deposits 44,100-19% Highlights Agreement reached to divest Retail Germany to Banco Santander The new advisory model SEB FinanzKonzept received positive feedback both from customers and independent rating agencies Net interest income development was weak as lending and deposit volumes did not grow Commission income, which in FX-adjusted terms actually increased by 3% vs. previous year, did still reflect modest levels of activity and risk appetite in the savings and insurance area Operating loss was contained by cost control measures and decreasing credit losses 64

65 Net interest income and volumes Retail Germany EUR m EUR bn Other lending Outstanding volume Net Interest Income distribution Q1 20 Q Mortgages Other lending Deposits % Margins Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 10 EUR bn Mortgages* % Outstanding volume Margins Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 10 EUR bn Deposits Outstanding volume Margins Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 10 Figures above present Mortgage, lending and deposits from private individuals and SME * Effected by amortizations on large historical sales volumes, partly sold through external sales organizations % 65

66 Sales development Retail Germany EUR m 450 New mortgage* 55,000 Customer appointments* EUR m 140 Insurance ,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30, Q2 06 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q ,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Q2 06 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q Q2 06 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 10 * incl. prolongation * by Call centre 66

67 Cards SEK m Jan Jun Total income 1,368 0% Interest, net 502 7% Commission, net 835-4% Total expenses % Profit bef. credit losses 627-3% Credit losses, net % Operating profit % RoE, % C/I Total lending 16,700-4% Highlights Several investments for future growth were made, not least in the Nordic co-brand business A multicurrency travel account service was launched, allowing customers to reduced their FXrelated risks Underlying income growth of 2% were offset by exchange rate changes Credit losses, including fraud, continued to decline and reached the lowest level in more than two years 67

68 Cards SEK bn Turnover cards Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q Millions Number of cards Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q1 Q

69 Wealth Management Fredrik Boheman Head of Wealth Management SEK m Jan Jun Total income 2,127 20% Interest, net % Commission, net 1,8 32% Total expenses - 1,340 2% Operating profit % Highlights Revenues above last year mainly due to: Increased base commission, mainly due to higher market values Stronger performance and transaction fee income Good brokerage income Net interest and FX adversely affect income Net sales SEK 28bn YTD, 35% above YTD 20 (21bn) Total AuM SEK 1,258bn. Down 1,3% from year-end (1,275bn). Average AuM up 11% compared to last year RoE, % C/I

70 Share of income and result by area January June 2010; percent of total Income Total = SEK 2,127m Operating result Total = SEK 784m Institutional Clients Private Banking Institutional Clients Private Banking 65% 35% 58% 42% 20: 61% vs 39% 20: 56% vs 44% 70

71 AuM per product type Wealth Management, SEK bn Mutual Funds Institutional Clients ex MF Private Clients ex MF 1,1 1,9 1,147 1,192 13% 14% 15% 15% 1,266 1,320 1,300 1,285 1,256 1,217 1,181 15% 15% 1,201 1,220 1,275 1,300 1,258 15% 15% 1,142 1,128 15% 15% 14% 13% 13% 15% 15% 15% 16% 16% 48% 48% 47% 47% 46% 46% 45% 45% 45% 44% 46% 48% 48% 46% 45% 44% 43% 43% 39% 38% 38% 39% 39% 40% 40% 40% 40% 41% 40% 39% 39% 39% 41% 41% 41% 42% Q1-06 Q2-06 Q3-06 Q4-06 Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1-10 Q

72 Total Net Sales per quarter Wealth Management, SEK bn IC PB Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1-10 Q2-10 The figures are not eliminated. Restated for transfer of Foundations & Companies from PB to IC. 72

73 Mutual funds per product type Wealth Management, June 2010 (June 20) Total amount SEK 522 bn (SEK 471 bn) 27% 36% Equity funds 36% (32%) Fixed income funds 27% (27%) Balanced funds 15% (14%) 15% Alternative funds 22% (27%) 22% 73

74 Activity level Wealth Mutual Funds Net Sales Sweden Cumulative Jan 2005 Jun 2010, including PPM SEK m 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000-20,000 SEB SHB Robur Nordea 0 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan Jan Jan Jan 10 Distribution per type of fund Jan Jun % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% SEB Equity funds Short bond funds Alternative funds Total Mixed funds Long bond funds -40,000 Source: Svensk Fondstatistik 74

75 Life Anders Mossberg Head of Life SEK m Jan Jun Total income 2,297 6% Total expenses -1,180-1% Operating profit 1,117 13% Change in surplus values, net % Highlights Strong result operating profit increased by 13 per cent High premium inflow a confirmation of customer confidence Well diversified offering in unit-linked supports customers risk management in volatile markets High RoE and low C/I ratio Business result 1,537 3% RoE, % C/I ratio

76 76 Life SEK m Operating profit Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1-10 Q ,000 1,200 Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1-10 Q2-10 Income Expenses

77 Share of income and profit by area Life, Jan Jun 2010, per cent of total Income Operating profit Total = SEK 2,297m Total = SEK 1,117m International 9% Denmark 27% International 8% Denmark 28% 64% 64% Sweden Sweden Sweden including central functions etc 77

78 Market position by profit area Market shares, gross premium income, Unit-linked insurance (%, Q1 2010) Sweden* SEB Market share 25 Competitors SEB Rank 1 Main competitor Folksam (20) Denmark** 9 2 Danica (30) Estonia 12 3 Sampo (42) Latvia 15 3 Sampo (47) Lithuania 23 2 Sampo (27) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% * Sweden based on new sales 12 months to June 2010 ** Denmark full year 20 78

79 Market shares Sweden, per cent Unit-linked old and new insurances, 12 months to June 2010 (June 20) Nordea 9.5% (7.0) Moderna 3.8% (4.5) SPP 5.5% (5.5) Other 0.7% (0.2) SEB Trygg Liv 24.8% (27.3) AMF 3.6% (4.0) Folksam 9.8% (8.6) Danica 2.5% (2.4) SHB 6.0% (4.6) Skandia 11.9% (13.9) LF 8.3% (8.6) Swedbank 13.7% (13.4) Source: Swedish insurance federation 79

80 Sales volume weighted SEK m Life Division total sales Jan Jun 2010 Jan Jun 20 Change Unit linked 21,849 20,746 5% Traditional and Sickness/health 3,625 5,434-33% Total 25,474 26,180-3% Unit-linked sales, Sweden* 34,900 31,600 27,9 26,682 30,436 33,467 17, Jan-Jun Market share Sweden % ** *Including Swedish customers of the Irish subsidiary ** June 2010 figures (latest) 80

81 Sales SPE Life including the Baltics from 2006 Traditional vs. unit-linked Individual vs. corporate 100% Traditional and sickness/health Unit-linked 100% Individual Corporate 80% 80% 60% 60% 40% 40% 20% 20% 0% 0% Jan Jan- Jun Jun Note: SPE = Single premiums plus regular premiums times ten 81

82 New business profit Life (2006 only Swedish market), SEK m Jul 20 Full yearfull yearfull year Full year - Jun New sales (single/10+regular) 4,037 4,026 3,858 3,689 3,345 Net present value 1,512 1,492 1,598 1,775 1,788 Acquisition cost New business profit Margin, % Swedish market

83 Life, AuM and Premium income SEK bn Assets under management, (net assets) Traditional and Risk Unit-linked Premium income gross Traditional and Risk Unit-linked Jan- Jun Jan- Jun

84 Operating profit development Life, SEK m Business result split in Operating profit and Change in surplus values SEK m 1, ,376 1, Operating profit 1, Total incl. Change in surplus values 3,130 3,5 2, ,470 1,802 2,052 1,063 3,015 2,115 1,537 1, Jan - Jun 2010 Life Holding group, SEK m Dec Dec Dec Dec Jun Equity * 8,450 8,836 8,827 8,594 8,024 Surplus value ** 12,872 14,496 11,549 13,656 14,006 * Dividend paid; 2006: : -1,150 20: -1,275 20: -1, : -1,000. ** Value of in-force business; Net of DAC 84

85 Baltic Martin Johansson Head of Baltic Highlights Improved macro economic situation during the second quarter with some gradual growth evident SEK m Jan Jun Total income 1,449-30% Interest, net % Commission, net % Expenses %* Profit bef. credit losses 481 Neg. Credit losses, net -1,882-57% Operating profit -1,402 59%* Non-performing loans have stabilised in all 3 countries Net credit provisions 57% lower than in 20. Second quarter net credit provisions one third of level in 1Q 2010 Green light for Estonia to adopt the Euro in January 2011 RoE, % Neg. Neg. C/I * * Adjusted for goodwill write-down in Q

86 Baltic SEK m 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Income Q2- Q3- Expenses Q4- Q1- Q2- * Q3- Q4- Q1-10 Q2-10 1,500 Operating profit ,500-2,500 Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-* Q3- Q4- Q1-10 Q2-10 * Adjusted for goodwill write-down in Q

87 Share of income and result by area Jan Jun 2010, per cent of total Income Total = SEK 1,449m SEK m Profit before credit losses Total = SEK 481m Lithuania 40% 32% Estonia % 186 Latvia 87

88 Business volume development by area SEK bn Q change vs. Q2 20 (local currency) Mortgages Other lending Deposits Estonia 14-3% 21-14% 20-6% Latvia 8-17% 19-18% 14-3% Lithuania 20-3% 30-22% 26 0% Deposit breakdown, Percent of total deposits, Jun 2010 Transaction account private Savings account private Transaction account corporate & public Savings account corporate & public Estonia Latvia Lithuania 20 % 17 % 23 % 40 % 20 % 22 % 6% 24 % 36 % 34 % 32 % 26 % 88

89 SEB Baltic Lending market shares Per cent, Q Q % Estonia 50% Latvia 50% SEBEstonia Swedbank DnB Nord Nordea Sampo/Danske Bank Lithuania 40% 40% 40% 30% 30% 30% 20% 20% 20% 10% 10% 10% 0% Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q % Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q % Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q Source: Bank of Estonia, Association of Latvian Banks, Association of Lithuanian Banks, SEB (Estonian figures are extrapolated from April) 89

90 Baltic Estonia SEK m Jan Jun Total income % Interest, net % Commission, net % Expenses %* Profit bef. credit losses 146 Neg. Credit losses, net % Operating profit -113 RoE, % Neg. Neg. C/I * Total lending 35,500-21% Total deposits 19,700-17% Highlights Net interest income 40% lower than in 20 due to lower volumes and margins but stabilising Net credit provisions 62% lower than in 20. Second quarter 28% lower than in Q Increase seen in level of banking transactions and credit card usage during 2010 Green light for Estonia to adopt the Euro in January 2011 * Adjusted for goodwill write-down in Q

91 Net interest income and volumes Baltic Estonia, EEK EEK m Net Interest Income distribution Q1 20 Q Mortgages Other lending Deposits EEK bn Mortgages Outstanding volume* Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 % Margin 2.0 Q1 Q EEK bn Other lending Outstanding volume* Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 * Adjusted to Group common definition Q3 Q4 % Margin 2.0 Q1 Q EEK bn Deposits Outstanding volume Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Margin Q4 Q1 Q %

92 Baltic Latvia SEK m Jan Jun Total income 4-35% Interest, net % Commission, net 93-14% Expenses %* Profit bef. credit losses 149 Neg. Credit losses, net % Operating profit -596 RoE, % Neg. Neg. C/I * Total lending 26,800-28% Total deposits 13,700-15% Highlights Net interest income 40% lower than in 20 but stabilising Net credit provisions 54% lower than in 20. Second quarter 70% lower than in 1Q 2010 Costs down 26% compared to 20* Deposit volumes have started to increase during 2010 SEB named Best Bank in Latvia in annual banking awards** * Adjusted for goodwill write-down in Q2 20 ** Emeafinance CEE and CIS banking awards

93 Net interest income and volumes Baltic Latvia, LVL LVL m Net Interest Income distribution Q1 20 Q Mortgages Other lending Deposits LVL bn Mortgages Outstanding volume* Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 % Margin 2.0 Q1 Q LVL bn Other lending Outstanding volume* Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 * Adjusted to Group common definition Q3 Q4 % Margin 2.5 Q1 Q LVL bn Deposits Outstanding volume Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Margin Q1 Q %

94 Baltic Lithuania SEK m Jan Jun Total income % Interest, net % Commission, net 196-9% Expenses %* Profit bef. credit losses 186 Neg. Credit losses, net % Operating profit -693 RoE, % Neg. Neg. C/I * Total lending 50,300-27% Total deposits 25,500-12% Highlights Net interest income 35% lower than in 20 but stabilising Net credit provisions 57% lower than in 20. Second quarter 75% lower than in 1Q 2010 Costs down 19% compared to 20* Increase seen in level of banking transactions and credit card usage during 2010 SEB named most attractive employer in Lithuania** * Adjusted for goodwill write-down in Q2 20 ** CV Online and business newspaper Verslo Žinios 94

95 Net interest income and volumes Baltic Lithuania, LTL LTL m Net Interest Income distribution Q1 20 Q Mortgages Other lending Deposits LTL bn Mortgages Outstanding volume* Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 % Margin 2.5 Q1 Q LTL bn Other lending Outstanding volume* Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 * Adjusted to Group common definition Q3 Q4 % Margin 2.5 Q1 Q LTL bn Deposits Outstanding volume Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Margin Q4 Q1 Q %

96 Macro Update 96

97 Strong fundamentals in the Nordics Public sector/current account balances. Percent of GDP 10 Norway Public sector deficit, Greece Australia France Spain USA Canada Italy Euro-zone Ireland UK Denmark Finland Japan Sweden Germany Netherlands Current account balance, 2010 Source: OECD, SEB X-asset 97

98 Strong Nordic situation Nordic Corporate Debt/Asset ratio, % Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Source: Deutsche Bank, Norges Bank, Sveriges Riksbank, Dec- Debt/Asset ratios are back to levels seen prior to crisis Dec- Dec- Debt/Asset ratio Nordic Interest coverage ratio (x) Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Interest cov. ratio rising to 4x, but still below the 5x level seen prior crisis Interest coverage ratio Source: Deutsche Bank, Norges Bank, Sveriges Riksbank Dec- Dec- Dec- 10% Budget deficit (-) / surplus (+), (2010E, EU Commission forecast) 5% 0% -5% -10% Maastricht criterion -15% Ireland U.K. Spain Greece Portugal France Euro Area Netherlands Italy Denmark Belgium Germany Austria Finland Luxemb. Sweden Norway Source: Deutsche Bank, EU Commission, Eurostat 98

99 Sweden: Highest growth in the West GDP growth: 4.7% in 2010, 2.9% in 2011 and 2.7% in 2012 Bright picture supported by fiscal policy and low interest rates/yields, good balance Export sector and home price correction the main risks Labour market is strengthening unemployment about 7% by 2012 Low inflation: International situation, productivity, wages and salaries, stronger SEK Strong public finances: room for 2011 reforms is SEK 25 bn Central government debt will fall to about 27% of GDP Change in the Riksbank s game plan Front-loaded key rate hikes for interest rate-sensitive economy and krona Stronger krona against the euro (9.00 per EUR at year-end, 8.75 at close of 2011) 99

100 Sweden: Exports have taken off 20 Strongest merchandise exports since Year-on-year percentage change (LHS) Level (RHS) Source: Statistics Sweden, SEB 100

101 Sweden: Rapidly falling government debt Forecast assumes privatisations and currency loan repayment Privatisation: SEK 50 bn Currency loan: SEK 50 bn

102 Low residential investments and number of housing starts International comparison Marked recovery in Residential investment, % of GDP Number of housing starts in relation to population (%) Sweden Denmark UK Norway Spain USA Sweden US Denmark UK Norway Spain France 0.0 Jul-92 Apr-95 Jan-98 Oct-00 Jun-03 Mar-06 Dec- Source: Riksbank Stability Report 20:2 102

103 Sweden: Households interest rate burden still low Per cent of disposable income Sweden: Interest rate burden after taxes (LHS) Sweden: Debts (RHS) US: Debts (RHS) Source: Riksbank, Federal Reserve, SEB 103

104 Home prices: No adjustment in Sweden and Norway 250 Home prices Index 2000 = United Kingdom Norway US Denmark Spain Germany Sweden Source: Reuters EcoWin 104

105 Sweden - Total household savings 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 04-IV 05-IV 06-IV -IV -IV -IV Housing Shareholdings Premium Pensions Bonds Mutual funds U-L insurance Trad insurance Bank deposits Source: SEB Savings Barometer Q

106 Balance sheet of Swedish households SEK m Assets Liabilities 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000, IV 00-IV 01-IV 02-IV 03-IV 04-IV 05-IV 06-IV -IV -IV -IV 106

107 Sweden: Core inflation below 2 per cent 5 Low inflation Year-on-year percentage change 5 4 SEB forecast jan apr jul okt jan apr jul okt jan apr jul okt jan apr jul okt jan apr jul okt CPIF CPIF excl energy and food CPI Source: Statistics Sweden, SEB 1

108 Nordic central banks will have to go it alone for some time Key rates Per cent Forecast SEB Euro zone Norway Sweden Source: ECB, Norges Bank, Sveriges Riksbank, SEB 1

109 Swedish bankruptcies 1

110 Turnaround of Baltic macro situation GDP development back on positive growth* Estonia Latvia Lithuania a 2010f 2011f 2012f Exports have rebounded Index EU Sentiment indicator Estonia Latvia Lithuania Source: Reuters EcoWin Comments on recent macro events Estonia back on growth track, flash Q2 GDP signals first year-on-year increase since Q4 20 Latvia is bottoming out, strong industrial production in Q2 Lithuania back to growth, Q2 GDP grow with ~7% Estonia's adoption of the euro in 2011 will add further stability in the region overall *Nordic Outlook, Aug 31,

111 Internal adjustments have improved competitiveness Real effective exchange rates Index 100 = Estonia Lithuania Latvia Source: BIS 111

112 Less depressed internal demand will normalise CA Current account Per cent of GDP Estonia Latvia Lithuania Source: Reuters EcoWin 112