Debt Investor Presentation FY 2013 and Q Financials. Thomas Bengtson Arne Boberg

Transcription

1 Debt Investor Presentation FY 2013 and Q Financials Thomas Bengtson Arne Boberg More information Available on You will find it under Investor Relations

2 Disclaimer IMPORTANT NOTICE THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY OR SELL SECURITIES. IT IS SOLELY FOR USE AT AN INVESTOR PRESENTATION AND IS PROVIDED AS INFORMATION ONLY. THIS PRESENTATION DOES NOT CONTAIN ALL OF THE INFORMATION THAT IS MATERIAL TO AN INVESTOR. THIS PRESENTATION IN AND OF ITSELF SHOULD NOT FORM THE BASIS OF ANY INVESTMENT DECISION. BY ATTENDING THE PRESENTATION OR BY READING THE PRESENTATION SLIDES YOU AGREE TO BE BOUND AS FOLLOWS: This presentation is not an offer for sale of securities in the United States, Canada or any other jurisdiction. This presentation may not be all-inclusive and may not contain all of the information that you may consider material. Neither SEB nor any third party nor any of their respective affiliates, shareholders, directors, officers, employees, agents and advisers makes any expressed or implied representation or warranty as to the completeness, fairness or reasonableness of the information contained herein and none of them accepts any responsibility or liability (including any third party liability) for any loss or damage, whether or not arising from any error or omission in compiling such information or as a result of any party s reliance on or use of such information. Certain data in this presentation was obtained from various external data sources and SEB has not verified such data with independent sources. Accordingly, SEB makes no representations as to the accuracy or completeness of that data. Such data involves risks and uncertainties and is subject to change based on various factors. Any securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this presentation must make its own independent decision regarding any securities or financial instruments and its own independent investigation and appraisal of the business and financial condition of SEB and the nature of the securities. Each recipient is strongly advised to seek its own independent financial, legal, tax, accounting and regulatory advice in relation to any investment. This presentation does not constitute a prospectus or other offering document or an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase any securities and nothing contained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. This presentation is being furnished to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, copied, shared, disseminated or redistributed, in whole or in part, in any manner whatsoever to any other person. The distribution of this presentation in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this presentation comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. Safe Harbor Certain statements contained in this presentation reflect SEB s current views with respect to future events and financial and operational performance. Except for the historical information contained herein, statements in this presentation which contain words or phrases such as will, aim, will likely result, would, believe, may, result, expect, will continue, anticipate, estimate, intend, plan, contemplate, seek to, future, objective, goal, strategy, philosophy, project, should, will pursue and similar expressions or variations of such expressions may constitute forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause SEB s actual development and results to differ materially from any development or result expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, SEB s ability to successfully implement its strategy, future levels of non-performing loans, its growth and expansion, the adequacy of its allowance for credit losses, its provisioning policies, technological changes, investment income, cash flow projections, exposure to market risks as wells other risks. SEB undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise forward-looking statements contained herein, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. In addition, forward-looking statements contained in this presentation regarding past trends or activities should not be taken as a representation that such trends or activities will continue in the future. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this presentation. 2

3 Content SEB s Core Markets, Franchise, Financial Results and Strategy p.6 Credit Portfolio and Asset Quality p. 20 Balance Sheet, Liquidity and Funding p. 24 Capital p. 31 Additional information p.37 SEB s Franchise and Core Markets p. 38; Balance sheet p.43; Swedish Housing market p.49; SEB s Swedish Residential Mortgage Lending p.58 SEB s Swedish Cover Pool and Covered Bonds p.65 3

4 SEB in Brief Founded in the service of enterprise by the Wallenberg family in 1856 The Wallenberg family is still the largest owner via Investor AB - a listed company on Nasdaq/OMX Stockholm Three largest shareholders have about 33% of share capital as at March 31, 2014 Investor AB 21%; Trygg foundation 7%; Alecta 5% Non-Swedish shareholders 28% Among the five most commonly owned listed shares by the public (number of shareholders) in Sweden according to Nasdaq/OMX (Stockholm Stock Exchange) One of the major banks in the Nordic area with total assets of SEK 2,651bn (EUR 296bn)* as at March 31, 2014 Ratings Unsecured Moody s A1 / P-1, stable outlook Fitch A+ / F1, stable outlook S&P A+ / A-1, affirmed ratings but outlook is negative for all major Swedish banks reflecting the possible removal of government support by year-end 2015 * Fx rate March 31, 2014 : EUR/SEK = 0.11 ; SEK/EUR =

5 Summary Economic fundamentals of the principal countries where SEB operates remain relatively robust Business and revenue mix are broader than the Nordic peers and generate a stable and diversified income base Higher profitability through a growing customer base, a larger share of their business growing franchise - and improved efficiency Strong positive development of all key financial ratios in 2013 continuing in 2014 Increasingly Nordic exposure and shift to low-risk business sectors Credit portfolio dominated (2/3 of total) by large corporates and Swedish residential mortgages with a high asset quality (NPLs of 0.29% excl Baltics and 0.6% incl Baltics ) and low net credit losses (7 bps) The combination of low net credit losses and high coverage levels (73%) flow through to earnings, while limiting the risk of unexpected credit losses going forward Diversified and liquid balance sheet with low market risk One of Europe s best capitalized banks with an estimated Basel III common equity tier 1 capital ratio of 15.7% and total capital ratio of 18.7% New regulatory environment stricter in Sweden than what Basel III requires SEB s business strategy is to further enlarge the corporate franchise in its core markets and expand the Swedish retail business 5

6 SEB s Core Markets, Strategy, Franchise and Financial Results 6

7 SEB s Core Markets Economic fundamentals remain relatively robust % Nordic GDP development * Sweden Norway Finland Denmark E 2015E Norway Denmark Germany Sweden Finland Estonia Latvia Lithuania Lithuania German and Baltic GDP development * Eurozone GDP development * % Germany Estonia Latvia Lithuania E 2015E % E 2015E * Source: SEB Nordic Outlook, May

8 SEB s Core Markets Strong sovereign finances % of GDP Sovereign Debt Estonia Luxemburg Norway Lithuania Latvia Sweden Denmark Poland Finland Slovenia Malta Netherlands Austria Hungary Germany UK France Spain Belgium Cyprus Ireland Portugal Italy Greece 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% Norway Estonia Germany Luxemburg Sweden Latvia Denmark Austria Hungary Finland Belgium Lithuania Netherlands Italy Malta France Greece Poland Portugal UK Cyprus Spain Slovenia Ireland Budget Deficit -10% 0% 10% 20% Current Account Balance Norway Netherlands Luxemburg Germany Sweden Slovenia Denmark Austria Ireland Hungary Spain Malta Portugal Italy Lithuania Estonia Belgium Greece Latvia France Finland Cyprus UK Poland -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Source: IMF WEO Prognosis for

9 SEB s Franchise Well-diversified Business Mix and Franchise Growing Large Corporate and Institutional business franchise Strategic growth initiatives have enlarged the customer base and increased the franchise in trading, capital markets, fx activities, equities, corporate and investment banking in the other Nordic countries and Germany Second largest Nordic asset manager with approx. SEK 1,504bn (EUR 168bn) under management as at March 31, 2014 Largest Nordic custodian with approx. SEK 6,003bn (EUR 671bn) under custody as at March 31, 2014 Growing Retail Banking business franchise in Sweden 1) Strategic initiatives have increased Retail banking s franchise in Sweden SEB s focus is on clients in the larger cities and people with a strong financial situation Income from Retail Sweden is growing in relative importance in SEB One of the largest Swedish Private Banks in terms of assets under management Total Swedish household savings market: No.2 with approx.11% market share Life insurance & Pensions: Leading in unit-linked* life business with approx. 17% of the Swedish market and approx. 12% of the total unitlinked and traditional life & pension business in Sweden Swedish household mortgage lending: A market share of approx 16% Second largest bank in the Baltic countries in terms of lending market shares Total operating income rolling 12 months March 2014 Baltics Estonia 3% Latvia 2% Lithuania 4% Germany * Finland Denmark 7% 4% 7% Norway Wealth Management and Life & Pension 8% Retail (Retail Banking and Baltic divisions) Other 9% 6% 21% 38% Sweden 59% 41% Sweden 46% Other Nordics 28% Germany 14% RoW 12% Large Corporates & Institutions -Corporate Banking 54% -Markets 32% -Transaction Banking 14% * Unit-linked = a regulated open-end mutual fund with an insurance wrap 1) Sources: Latest available data and company reports *excluding Treasury 9

10 Strategy Actions to raise divisional performance Large Corporates and Institutions Business Plan Second phase in the Nordic and German expansion Increase cross-selling on existing customer base Income growth by 2015 ~15% Retail Banking Life & Wealth Further strengthen corporate profile Leverage multi-channel approach Reduce complexity in fund offering and grow PB Improve Life insurance online solutions ~20% ~5% Baltic Focus on customer profitability Improve advisory services to corporates ~15% 10

11 Strategy Total Group income growth above target Target growth by 2015 Target CAGR Actual growth 2013 Large Corporate and Institutions ~15% ~5% vs 6% Swedish Retail Banking ~20% ~6% vs 10% Life & Wealth ~5% ~1.5% vs 2% Baltic ~15% ~5% vs 3% Total Group ~15% ~5% vs 7% 11

12 SEB s Business Franchise Growing Swedish Retail and Nordic Corporate franchise render more stable income generation Average quarterly income and Q SEKm Swedish Retail Banking Large Corporate and Transaction Banking Life and Wealth Markets' Business Baltics % % 21% 13% 21% % % 28% % 30% Q Percent depicts Business Area in percent of total business income 12

13 SEB s Large Corporate & Institutions Business Entrenched Business Franchise and Low Risk Trading Growing customer base and broad product offerings create stability of income SEKm % 53% Average quarterly income and Q Corporate and Transaction Banking Markets 47% 47% 38% 37% 63% 62% 32% 68% Q Next to no losses and low VAR in the markets operations Daily trading income January 1, 2007 March 31, negative out of 1,818 trading days. Average loss SEK 12m (EUR 1.3m) Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 13

14 SEB s Swedish SME and Private Individuals Business Increasingly more important Swedish retail business Increased relative importance of SEB s total income Focused and successful client acquisition strategy Dec 2007 March 2014 Strategic move in 2008 resulted in a more efficient, professional, advisory-driven organization and customer centric distribution capacity 20% 30% Successful re-organization, product offerings, accessibility 24/7 and focus on long-term customer relationships increased the number of clients, business volume and operating profit A cultural change focus on business acumen and local ownership Substantially increased operating profit Strong development of key ratios SEKm 1,400 1,200 1, Average quarterly operating profit and Q Q C/I Business Equity RoBE Q % SEK 24.4bn 20.6% % SEK 20.2bn 21.9% % SEK 14.4bn 22.3% % SEK 10.8bn 21.4% % SEK 9.7bn 14.5% 14

15 Effects of SEB s strategic actions Enlarged customer franchise and cost efficiency measures clearly improved profitability 1) in SEK bn Average quarterly income in SEK bn Average quarterly expenses ) Avg 2010 Avg 2011 Avg 2012 Avg 2013 Q Operating leverage Avg 2010 Avg 2011 Avg 2012 Avg 2013 Q Average quarterly profit before credit losses in SEK bn Avg 2010 Avg 2011 Avg 2012 Avg 2013 Q ) Excluding one-offs 2) Estimated IAS 19 costs in 2010 Increase of 50% and 41% Q and average quarterly 2013, respectively vs average quarterly 2010 Larger number of clients Larger share of clients wallet Cost efficiency measures 15

16 SEB s Financial Results Strategic growth initiatives and efficient operations increase profitability Income, expenses and net credit losses (SEK bn) 1) 2) 3) 4) Jan- Mar Jan- Mar Jan- Mar 2014 Operating income Operating expenses Net credit losses Operating profit (SEK bn) Profit before losses, FY Operating profit, FY Profit before losses, Jan-Mar Operating profit, Jan-Mar 5) ) of which 1.3bn buy back of sub debt 2) of which 3.0bn goodwill write-offs 3) of which 0.8bn restructuring costs in our German subsidiary, SEB AG 4) write-down of IT infrastructure 0.8bn 5) of which 1.0 bn in write-backs of credit loss provisions 16

17 SEB s Financial Results Business mix creates stable and diversified revenues SEKbn Total operating income split - Non-NII income more important Average quarterly income and Q % 11% 49% 2% 10% 43% % 45% Q Net interest income Net commission and Life insurance Net financial income Net other income SEKbn Fees and Commissions - strong market shares render increasing recurring commission Average quarterly income and Q % 26% 27% 14% 13% 31% % 42% Q Payments, card, lending Asset value based Activity based Life insurance income

18 SEB s Financial Results Strong Financial Development Key Figures Key Features Q ) 2010 Return on Equity, % 1) Cost /income ratio, % 1) Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio, % 3) NA NA Tier I capital ratio, % 3) NA NA Total capital ratio, % 3) NA NA Net credit loss level, % 4) NPL coverage ratio, % 5) NPL / Lending, % 5) Operating profit Q1 2014: +29% and +31% before and after net credit losses, respectively vs Q FY 2013: +27% both before and after net credit losses 2013 vs 2012 (if excl. one-time effects in %) Efficiency clearly improved Basel III capital ratios The CRD IV remains to be implemented into Swedish law. As details of the Swedish law become known, SEB s measurement will be refined. Key asset quality indicators Continued overall strong asset quality but SEB maintaines high coverage ratio 1) Continuing operations 2) Restated for IAS 19 3) 2014 is according to CRR and known parts of CRDIV and 2012 are estimates based on SEB s interpretation of future regulation 4) Net aggregate of write-offs, write-backs and provisioning. 5) NPLs = Non Performing Loans (impaired loans + loans >60 days past due 18

19 Strategy Financial Targets Credit ratings that support competitive access to funding and position SEB as a viable counterparty in the financial markets SEB s target Capital ratios subject to revision following: Draft Bill on Capital Requirements for Swedish banks presented May 8, 2014 The new rules will to a large extent come into effect August 1, 2014 The implementation of the strengthened capital adequacy rules is a clear tightening of capital requirements in particular as regards calculations of capital buffers, Pillar II requirements and macro prudential buffers e.g. minimum mortgage risk weights A Swedish liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) above 100% Dividend payout ratio of 40% or above Generate an RoE competitive with peers Further improved operating leverage Capped cost base until / 23.3bn 23.5bn 2/ 22.9bn Cost cap <22.5bn 22.3bn / Estimated IAS 19 costs in / Excl. one-off write-down of IT investment of SEK 753m 19

20 Credit Portfolio and Asset Quality 20

21 SEB s total Credit Portfolio, excluding banks, increasingly more low-risk and Nordic Large Corporates and Swedish Residential Mortgages dominate Geographic split Business split SEK 1,649bn SEK 1,756bn March % 5% Other 12% 7% Household nonmortgage 5% Public Sector 13% Baltics 5% 25% 10% 4% 14% Total Nordics 59% 75% Sweden 48% 60% 15% 7% 24% 31% 30% Germany Other Nordics Swedish residential apartment bldgs Swedish household mortgage Sweden excl. residential mortgage Residential Mortgages 35% Commercial Real Estate 10% Corporates 45% Dec '08 Mar '14 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Development of certain business areas relative importance of the Credit Portfolio, excluding banks Dec '07 Dec '08 Dec '09 Dec '10 Dec '11 Dec '12 Dec '13 Mar '14 Large corporates Swedish SMEs Swedish Residential Mortgage Commercial Real Estate excl Baltics Baltic total credit portfolio 21

22 Asset quality Increasing low-risk Swedish and Nordic exposure support high asset quality Credit quality Loan loss ratio, Group SEK bn Q1-03 Q1-04 Q1-05 Non-performing loans Non-performing loans, net of reserves Total NPL coverage ratio Q1-06 Q1-07 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Q % 80% 60% 40% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% -0.4% Q1-03 Q1-04 Q1-05 Q1-06 Q1-07 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Q1-14 Nordic countries - Net credit losses in % SEB Group - Net credit losses in % (negative = reversals) Q Q

23 Asset Quality SEB has the lowest default levels of Nordic banks EBA transparency exercise, 30 June 2013 Nordic Basel corporates (default % of total Nordic corporate EAD) 3.67% 2.95% 1.93% 1.46% 0.39% 0.33% 0.10% Nordea Pohjola Danske Bank DnB NOR SHB Swedbank SEB Swedish household mortgages (defaults % of total Swedish household mortgage EAD) 0.84% 0.34% 0.20% 0.18% 0.09% Danske Bank Nordea Swedbank SHB SEB 23

24 Balance sheet, liquidity and funding 24

25 Balance sheet Diversified and Liquid Balance Sheet Total Assets SEK 2,651bn (EUR 296bn) March 31, % Other Other 90% Life Insurance Life Insurance 80% Credit Institutions Derivatives Credit Institutions Derivatives Liquid assets 70% 60% Client Trading Client Trading Funding, remaining maturity<1y Cash and Deposits in Central banks Deposits from Central banks 2/ Shortterm funding 50% Liquidity Portfolio Funding, remaining maturity >1y Banking book 1/ 40% 30% 20% 10% Household Lending Corporate & Public Sector lending Household Deposits Corporate & Public Sector Deposits Stable funding 0% Assets Equity Liabilities 1. A relatively large share of lending is contractually short which allows for swift re-pricing to adjust for e.g. changed funding costs. 2. Central bank deposits refer to long-term relationship-based deposits from central banks and do not refer to borrowings from central banks 25

26 Balance Sheet Growing funding base Stable development of deposits from corporate sector and private individuals SEK bn Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Total Corporate sector Private Individuals Public sector Non-bank deposits with Treasury function Increasing long-term funding despite modest re-financing needs SEK bn Matured / Maturing Senior Unsecured Matured / Maturing Covered Bonds Issued Senior Unsecured non SEK Issued Senior Unsecured SEK Issued Covered Bonds non SEK Issued Covered Bonds SEK

27 Funding Base Diversified funding and strong structural funding position Total Funding Base SEK 1,854bn (EUR 207bn) 4% 7% Wholesale funding */** Wholesale funding SEK 807bn (EUR 90bn) 2% */** Non-bank deposits with Treasury function 12% 20% 36% CPs/CDs Corporate & Public Sector Deposits Private Individuals Wholesale funding 44% 3% Mortgage Cov Bonds SEB AB Mortgage Cov Bonds SEB AG Credit Institutions Senior Debt Deposits from Central Banks 29% * Excluding repos ** Excluding public covered bonds issued by SEB AG which are in a run-off mode 5% 38% Subordinated debt Strong structural funding position The amount of funding in excess of one year in relation to assets with a modelled maturity of more than one year 1/ 150% 100% 50% The Core Gap ratio averages 115% over the period. 0% Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 1) The Core Gap Ratio is an SEB defined internal measure similar to the proposed NSFR under Basel III and measures the amount of funding in excess of one year in relation to assets with a maturity of more than one year based on internal behavioral modelling 27

28 Short-term Funding Strong access to CP/CD funding supports Markets business Volumes - Net trading assets 1 adaptable to CP/CD funding access SEK bn Net trading assets CP/CD 0 Mar-14 Jan-14 Nov-13 Sep-13 Jul-13 May-13 Mar-13 Jan-13 Nov-12 Sep-12 Jul-12 May-12 Mar-12 Jan-12 Nov-11 Sep-11 Jul-11 May-11 Mar-11 Jan-11 Nov-10 Sep-10 Jul-10 May-10 Mar-10 Duration - CP/CD fund net trading assets 1 with considerably shorter duration Net Trading Assets SEK bn Average duration (days) Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 CP/CD funding 1. Net Trading Assets = Net of repoable bonds, equities and repos for client facilitation purposes 28

29 Liquidity Sizable liquidity buffer March 31, 2014 SEB s total Liquid Resources 201% of wholesale funding maturities within 1 year SEK bn Core liquidity reserve Directives of Swedish Bankers Association Assets held by the Treasury function Not encumbered Eligible with Central Banks Maximum 20% risk weight under Basel II Standardized Model Lowest rating of Aa2/AA- Valued marked-to-market SEB Core Reserve 1) Net Trading Assets Financial corporates Covered bonds O/N bank deposits 1) SEB's Total Liquid Resources Overcollateralization in SEB's Cover Pool Non-Financial corporates Treasuries & other Public Bonds Cash & holdings in Central Banks Composition of SEB s Liquidity Portfolio Government or state-guaranteed securities of Nordic countries, and other selected Northern European countries, principally Germany Supra-nationals High quality triple-a rated covered bonds issued by banks in the Nordic countries and other selected Northern European countries, principally Germany 1) Definition according to Swedish Bankers Association 2) Net Trading Assets = Net of repoable bonds, equities and repos for client facilitation purposes 29

30 Liquidity and Funding benchmarking Strong Liquidity and Funding position vs. peers Liquid assets vs. wholesale funding and net inter-bank borrowing (Maturing Funding ratio 3M & 12M) 3M maturing funding ratio Mar % 194% 200% 185% 147% 156% 150% 12M maturing funding ratio Mar % 127% 111% 100% 92% 93% 100% 50% % % Mar % Mar 2014 SEB Swedbank Nordea SHB SEB Swedbank Nordea SHB Development Development % 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% % % 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Q Q Q Q Q % Q Q Q Q Q SEB Swedbank Nordea SHB Average SEB Swedbank Nordea SHB Average Definition: Liquid Assets 1 / (Maturing Wholesale Funding within 3/12m + Net interbank borrowing within 3/12m) 1. Liquid assets defined as on balance sheet cash and balances with central banks + securities (bonds and equities) net of short positions Source Liquidatum, Fact Book SEB, Swedbank, Nordea and Handelsbanken 30

31 Capital 31

32 Capital Strong Common Equity Tier 1 ratio via efficient risk management and profit generation despite volume growth and stricter regulations Basel III - estimated Own Funds and Basel III ratios, fully implemented AT1 Tier 2 Common Equity Tier 1, % Dec 2012 Dec 2013 March 2014 SEK bn - Common Equity Tier 1 capital Total own funds Own funds / 80% of Capital requirement under Basel I 147% 145% - REA Leverage ratio na 4.2% 4.1% 32

33 SFSA s May 8 Draft Bill on Swedish banks capital requirements according to CRDIV SEB s estimated capital requirements full-year % 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 15.6% 2.5% 0.6% 3.0% 2.0% 0.9% 0.7% 1.5% 16.5% 0.8% 15.7% 20.1% 2.5% 0.6% 3.0% 2.0% 1.1% 0.8% 2.0% 2.0% 1.5% 19.5% 0.8% 18.7% Expected profit after expected dividend CET1 capital ratio Q / Total capital ratio Q Capital conservation buffer Countercyclical capital buffer Systemic risk buffer Systemic risks in Pillar 2 Increase from 15 to 25% risk weight floor in Pillar 2 on Swedish mortgages Current risk weight floor in Pillar 2 on Swedish mortgages Pillar 2 excl. risk-weight floor on Swedish mortgages and systemic risks in Pillar 2 Minimum T2 2% 4.5% 4.5% Minimum AT1 0% Estimated CET1 requirement Estimated CET1 available Estimated Total Capital Requirement Estimated Total Capital available Minimum common equity Tier 1 Next steps Pillar 2 - The SFSA will clarify what specific and harmonized calculation methods will be used for the Pillar 2 basic requirement Counter cyclical buffer - the Swedish Stability Council will decide on the exact methodology for setting this buffer Only Swedish exposure is considered so far 33

34 Benchmarking SFSA s CET1 capital estimates as at December 31, 2014 Major Swedish banks new CET1 capital requirements 25% 25% Forecasted profit 2014, after expected dividend Estimated CET1 requirement Estimated CET1 available 20.4% 20% 19.3% 19.0% 20% 17.4% 16.5% 15.6% 15.4% 15% 14.5% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% SEB SHB Nordea Swedbank 0% Pillar 2 - The SFSA will clarify what specific and harmonized calculation methods will be used for the Pillar 2 basic requirement Counter cyclical buffer only Swedish exposure is considered so far 34

35 Conclusions Higher profitability via an enlarged customer base and a focused and cost efficient organic growth Resilient and diversified income base Conservative underwriting standards and strong asset quality Well-aligned balance sheet structure, strong liquidity and high quality capital structure 35

36 Going forward Long-term customer relationships Disciplined execution of business plan Finalization of regulatory Swedish finish 36

37 Additional Information 37

38 SEB s Core Markets, Franchise, and Strategy 38

39 SEB s Core Market Swedish Economy 2013 and forecasts for 2014 and 2015 Central government debt increased to approx. 35% of GDP in 2013 due to strengthening of the currency reserve and expansionary fiscal policy. The debt ratio will stay around 35% in 2014 and Excluding the relending to the currency reserve the deficit was around 30% and will remain so in 2014 and Current account as a % of GDP was above 6% in 2013 and is expected to remain approx. 6% in 2014 and 2015 Sweden s main export markets Countries: Norway 10%, Germany 10%, UK 8%, Finland 6%, Denmark 6%, USA 6% Geographic areas: Europe 72.5%, of which Eurozone 38% and Nordics 23% Exports as a % of GDP is around 45%, of which goods constitute approx. 30% and services 15% Increased diversification of trading partners over the past decade improves export stability GDP-growth is expected to pick up during 2014 and GDP growth of 1.5% in 2013 and expected to be 2.7% in 2014 and 3.1% in 2015 Expansionary fiscal policy,consumption and investments are expected to be the main drivers in 2014 Healthy new job creation but with persistent unemployment due to rising labor force participation Inflation ( CPI ) well below 2% target at 0% in In 2014, inflation is expected to be 0 to somewhat negative to pick up to close to 1% in 2015 Central Bank s repo rate lowered to 0.75% in Dec 2013 and was maintained after the Feb 2014 meeting The repo rate is expected to be lowered to 0.50% in July with a possible further lowering to 0.25% in October 2014 Fiscal stimuli in 2014 of about 0.7% of GDP Source: SEB Nordic Outlook May 2014 and Statistics Sweden 39

40 Growth of SEB s Franchise Customer-driven growth Large Corporates and Financial Institutions New client income contribution (%) 10% Total 413 SME/MidCorp Sweden +41, ,000 Private Sweden +60, ,000 5% 209 7% Baltics +21, Baltics +179, ,000 2% , Numbers in white in the bars depict total new clients on an accumulated basis Numbers in white in the bubbles depict total new clients basis

41 Large Corporates and Institutions Broadened corporate platform and profitability outside Sweden Credit portfolio (SEK bn, FX-adj) Operating profit (SEK bn, FX-adj) Denmark Finland Norway Germany 310 CAGR % Denmark CAGR % % Finland % +16% Norway % +4% Germany %

42 SEB s Baltic Franchise Activity and profitability are picking up Improved economic environment Baltic GDP growth remains above Eurozone average and fuels profitability and reduces non-performing loans. However, Caution on economic effects for geo-political reasons Competition increases Corporate sector outperforms retail sector due to improved competitiveness but gap will narrow as improvements will trickle down to improve retail conditions Unemployment rates improving in all three countries Strong development of key ratios C/I Business Equity RoBE Q % SEK 9.2bn 14.0% % SEK 8.8bn 12.9% % SEK 8.8bn 9.7% / 58% SEK 8.8bn 29.6% % SEK 11.8bn 2.2% 1/ Write-backs of provisions of SEK 1.5bn Maintaining leading market shares in lending 50% 40% 30% SEB Swedbank DNB Nordea Sampo/Danske Bank Estonia 50% Latvia 50% Lithuania** 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 20% 10% 10% 10% 0% Q1-10 Q3 Q1-11 Q3 Q1-12 Q3 Q1-13 Q3 Q1-14 * 0% Q1-10 Q3 Q1-11 Q3 Q1-12 Q3 Q1-13 Q3 Q1-14 * 0% Q1-10 Q3 Q1-11 Q3 Q1-12 Q3 Q1-13 Q3 Q1 * -14 *Competitors Q volumes not available at time of publication and SEB Q Figures are February 2014 ** Lithuania Q Figures are January Competitors data for 2013 Q4 are not available LT Central Bank not providing statistical information temporarily Source: Estonian Financial Supervision Authority, Association of Latvian Commercial Banks, Association of Lithuanian Banks, SEB Group 42

43 Balance sheet, Liquidity, Funding, and Asset Quality 43

44 Balance sheet Low Asset Encumbrance level 1/ Assets, SEK 2,194bn (EUR 245bn) at March 31, 2014 Credit Institutions Client Trading 2) Cash & Deposits in Central Banks Household Lending Corporate & Public Sector lending Assets Residential Apt buildings,corp and Public Sector lending 4) Client Trading 3) 4) Household Lending Corporate and Public Sector lending 4) Encumbered assets in % of Total Assets 1.3% 11.4% 4.4% 17.2% 1) Assets excluding Insurance assets and derivatives 2) Client facilitation (trading assets) includes the net of derivatives 3) Intraday settlement collateral and net of derivative collateral 4) Collateral for covered bonds 44

45 SEBs wholesale funding sources Diversified funding mix Wholesale funding, SEK 811bn*, Q Wholesale funding distribution* Short-term funding sources Q Q Q Q Commercial paper (CP) Total programs Swedish % 3% 4% 2% 2% 1% 3% 12% French Global European US Commercial deposit (CD) Total programs Yankee CDs Sterling CDs % 7% 1% 2% 20% Long-term funding sources Q Q Q Q SEB AB Total Domestic Covered bond program Domestic MTN program Global MTN programs Covered Senior a Covered and senior unsecured Retail index linked bonds Subordinated debt SEB AG Total Mortgage covered bonds Senior unsecured % CPs Swedish CPs French CPs European CPs US Yankee CDs Sterling CDs Domestic Covered bond program Domestic MTN program Global MTN program Covered Global MTN program Senior 144a/3(a)2 Covered and senior unsecured SEB AG Covered bonds SEB AG Senior unsecured Retail index linked bonds Subordinated debt * Nominal amounts 45

46 Banking book asset growth funded through deposit accumulation and long-term covered and senior bonds, SEB Group, Mar 2014 (SEK bn) Household lending, deposits and covered bond funding Lending Deposits Covered Bonds Net OC Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Household Net = Lending deposits covered bonds SEK Non-SEK Lending Deposits Covered Bonds Indexlinked Net Corporate & public lending, deposits and senior bonds Lending Deposits Senior Debt Net Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Corporate & Public Net = Lending deposits senior debt 400 SEK Non-SEK Lending Deposits Senior Debt Covered Bonds Net 46

47 Asset Quality the Group and Geographic regions Decreasing Non-Performing Loans Non-performing loans development (SEK bn) Portfolio assessed - past due >60 days Individually assessed - impaired loans with specific reserves = change from Dec 2012 to Mar % 10-44% 5-4% -20% 0 Dec '07 Dec '08 Dec '09 Dec '10 Dec '11 Dec '12 Dec '13 Mar '14 Dec '07 Dec '08 Dec '09 Dec '10 Dec '11 Dec '12 Dec '13 Mar '14 Dec '07 Dec '08 Dec '09 Dec '10 Dec '11 Dec '12 Dec '13 Mar '14 Dec '07 Dec '08 Dec '09 Dec '10 Dec '11 Dec '12 Dec '13 Mar '14 SEB Group Nordics Germany Baltics NPL % of lending NPL coverage ratio 0.6% 73% 0.2% 78% 0.7% 99% 5.0% 65% 57% of SEB s NPLs are related to the Baltic exposure Baltic reductions of NPLs driven mainly by improving macro-economic environment and thereby improved weighted average risk classes and write-offs and repayments German NPL reductions driven by write-offs German NPLs are to a very large extent related to the legacy commercial real estate portfolio under work-out 47

48 Asset Quality the Group and Geographic regions Low net credit losses Nordic countries, net credit losses in % Baltic countries, net credit losses in % Mar' (negative = reversals) Mar'14 Germany, net credit losses in % SEB Group, net credit losses in % (negative = reversals) Mar' Mar'14 Net credit losses = the aggregated net of write-offs, write-backs and provisions 48

49 Swedish Housing Market 49

50 The Swedish housing market, households indebtedness and affordability Some key features House price development Upward pressure: Severe structural lack of supply particularly in the major cities to which there is a strong migration Particularly on apartments in the major cities center Political inability to stimulate new residential investments Stabilizing / downward pressure mitigating factors: Banks stricter lending criteria New and extended regulatory requirements on banks and other mortgage lenders: Regulatory LTV cap of 85% (Fall 2010) Mortgage risk-weights - 15% under Pillar 2 (Spring 2013) Increased mortgage risk-weight to 25% under Pillar 2 (Fall 2014) Regulatory Body s liquidity and capital requirements - stricter than Basel III and EU requirements Topics publicly discussed - Increased household indebtedness may cause regulatory bodies to: Introduce mandatory amortization requirements Decrease ability to deduct interest costs (today: 30% up to about USD 15k / EUR 11k and 20% on the amount above USD 15k / EUR 11k ) Home ownership about 70%* and going up No buy-to-let market * Swedish National Board of Housing 2011 (Boverket) 50

51 The Swedish housing market, households indebtedness and affordability continued Some key features Increased indebtedness of households A recent (Nov 2013) government report based on random samples showed that: 80% of households debt is mortgage loans The most indebted people are the ones with the highest income and net wealth, Highest level of education and Live in the economically more prosperous and flourishing regions in Sweden The Central bank s report How indebted are Swedish households? of May 2014 states that *: Households aggregated debt to disposable income ratio (debt ratio) was 174% in Q For indebted households, the agregated debt ratio was 242% in Q4 2013: The top three income deciles have 51% of total income and 46% of total debt The lowest three income deciles have 13% of total income and 16% of total debt Households affordability The Central Bank s Stability Report of November 2013 states that: Households aggregated total wealth is 6 times higher than household disposable income Households aggregated net wealth (total assets minus total debt) is 4 times higher than disposable income Higher income groups have both larger assets and larger debt in nominal terms Increased affordability of households Households have increased disposable income and affordability due to higher real salaries, income tax cuts, abolishment of wealth tax, a substantial lowering of real estate tax and low interest rates The increase in debt to income amongst households is offset by a low public sector debt and a capacity for countercyclical measures * The volume of loans in the data covers about 80% of household loans and 94% of all mortgages. 51

52 Swedish Housing Market Long-term development Structural lack of housing puts an upward pressure on prices Shift in government policy on subsidies in the beginning of the 90s had a huge negative impact on residential construction Lack of housing the most pronounced in the larger cities like Stockholm, Göteborg and Malmö to which there is a strong migration Strict rent regulation; high land and construction costs; planning, construction and environmental legislation continue to reduce the incentive for the construction of rental apartment buildings Construction needs to be between 30,000 and 60,000/ year to keep pace with population growth 1) Apartment buildings constructed in 2012 numbered approximately 28,000 1) Relatively low residential investment Low number of new houses constructed as a % of GDP as a % of the population 14.0 Denmark Spain UK Norway Sweden USA Germany Ireland Denmark Spain UK Norway Sweden USA Source: Macrobond 1) Latest available data from the Swedish National Board of Housing Source: Macrobond 52

53 Swedish Housing Market Long-term development continued Structural lack of housing puts an upward pressure on prices Stuctural lack of housing is the root to the sustained increase. And Low residential real estate construction led to an upward pressure on equilibrium price levels Considerable lowering of residential real estate tax, lower income tax and abolition of wealth tax in the mid-2000s Relatively low debt servicing costs House prices (index 1992=100) International comparison UK Denmark Spain Germany Netherlands Norway USA Sweden Source: Macrobond 53

54 Swedish Household Mortgage Market - Current market development Development of housing prices is up but shows a mixed picture Prices of tenant-owned apartments continue to rise but single family houses less so Area Single family houses Apartments Stabilizing lending growth to Swedish Households YoY Slight upward trend since 2013 on a YoY basis March 2014 (change as at December 2013) Sweden +2 (0) 3m 12m 3m 12m +5 (+5) +4 (+1) +7 (+11) % YoY change M/M 3 month average, annualized Greater Stockholm Central Stockholm +3 (0) +8 (+7) +4 (+1) +3 (+3) +10 (+11) +10 (+11) Greater Göteborg +3 (0) +8 (+6) +4 (-1) +8 (+10) 4 2 Greater Malmö -2 (+3) +1 (+6) +3 (-4) +9 (+9) 0 Source: Mäklarstatistik Source: Sweden statistics 54

55 Swedish Housing Market Affordability Total Households debt-servicing ability is solid The Central Bank s Stability Report of November 2013 states that: Households aggregated total wealth is 6 times higher than household disposable income Households aggregated net wealth (total assets minus total debt) is 4 times higher than disposable income Higher income groups have both larger assets and larger debt in nominal terms Savings ratio % 20 Germany Denmark Spain Finland France UK Netherlands Norway USA Sweden Source: Macrobond Year 55

56 Swedish Housing Market Affordability Unemployment will have minor effect on asset quality Swedish Central Bank stress tests show that: Debt servicing ability is to a larger extent affected by higher mortgage rates than higher unemployment Although the proportion of vulnerable households increases if unemployment rises, potential loan losses only increase marginally due to socio economic factors (see next slide) Healthy job creation but persistent unemployment due to rising labor force participation Employment in millions 5,000 4,900 4,800 4,700 4,600 4,500 4,400 4,300 4,200 4,100 Employment, seasonally adjusted Unemployment, seasonally adjusted Unemployment in percent , Source: Statistics Sweden, SEB 56

57 Swedish Housing Market Socio economic mitigating factors Factors behind the strong asset quality Credit information agency ( UC ) Practically impossible to escape claims Strong household income No buy-to-let market Direct debit Provides unique information regarding customers, e.g. marital and employment status, age, income, fixed assets, debt, payment record, property ownership A borrower is personally liable, for life, even after a default and foreclosure procedure A household s income is to a very high degree based on two persons income. A mortgage loan is typically a joint liability A regulated rental market and tenant owner subletting restrictions Customers make payments via authorized direct debit from their account State enforcement office Enforcement orders are processed in a expedient and reliable way No intermediaries Banks and bank owned mortgage institutions originate the loans themselves and the loans remain on their balance sheet 57

58 SEB s Swedish Residential Mortgage Lending 58

59 SEB s Swedish Residential Mortgage lending Household mortgage lending dominates the portfolio Total SEK 493bn (EUR 55bn) March 31, 2014 Residential Apartment Buildings SEK 106bn (EUR 12bn) Private companies 46% Housing co-op associations 38% State/Community owned 16% 22% Residential Apartment Buildings Strong asset quality Impaired loans at 2bps or SEK 18m (EUR 2m) No major problem loans since the 1990 s No net credit losses Low and conservative LTVs Household Mortgage lending SEK 387bn (EUR 43bn) Single family homes 63% Tenant owned apartments 32% Second homes 5% 78% Conservative lending policy Cash-flow generation Legal structure: Counterparty has to have direct and immediate access to the cash-flow and the assets taken in as collateral. Tenor max 10 years LTV <75% but depending on geographic location. Rural areas LTV<65%. Amortization structure required depending on geographic location 59

60 Asset Quality Lending to Swedish Residential Apartment Buildings Low levels of impaired loans and negligible credit losses Impaired loans do not typically turn into credit losses in % Credit loss level NPLs to lending Mar '14 Effectively no net credit losses since the early 2000s, in % Mar '14 * Net credit losses = the aggregated net of write-offs, recoveries and provisions 60

61 SEB s Swedish Household Mortgage lending Successful Private Client Strategy produced growth despite stricter underwriting standards SEK bn Selective origination Full-service relationship model facilitates information and knowledge about the customer Market share increased some 3% to approx.16% in four years >80% of new mortgage loan clients have become full-service clients Past-due >60days are 9bps (EUR 41m) Dec '08 Jun '09 Dec '09 Jun '10 Dec '10 Jun '11 Dec '11 Jun '12 Dec '12 Jun '13 Dec '13 Mar '14 Net credit loss level is 1 bp (EUR 0.7m) Low LTVs Loan-to-value Share of portfolio >85% 0.4% 71-85% 5.0% 51-70% 16.8% 0-50% 77.8% SEB s Mortgage lending based on affordability Strict credit scoring and assessment Nearly 100% of all customers authorize SEB to direct-debit their account on payment due dates typically monthly due dates Left-to-live-on sensitivity analysis including, currently, a 7% interest rate test and a 50-year straight amortization period 85% regulatory LTV cap when granting a loan Loans >70% of market value must be amortized over 10 years Max loan amount 5x total gross household income irrespective of LTV and no more than one payment remark on any kind of debt (information via national credit information agency ( UC )) Sell first and buy later 61

62 SEB s Swedish Household Mortgage Lending Strong economic profile of customers SEB s typical mortgage customer Age distribution of SEB s customers Based on volumes December 31, 2013 Dual income households in the major cities High income households Personal savings above average Stronger credit rating vs. market average SFSA states in a report from April, 2014: SEB has the lowest LTV in all age spans Larger share of households with amortizing plans in new loans than market average 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Portfolio New loans SEB s mortgage customers have a relatively stronger credit quality than market average 1) UC Scoring Market SEB Oct '10 Dec '10 Feb '11 Apr '11 Jun '11 Aug '11 Oct '11 Dec '11 Feb '12 Apr '12 Jun '12 Aug '12 Oct '12 Dec '12 Feb '13 Apr '13 Jun '13 Aug '13 Oct '13 1) Source: Swedish Credit Bureau ( UC AB ) Kreditbarometern and SEB UC scoring is defined as the probability of getting a payment remark within one year 62

63 Asset Quality SEB s Swedish Household Residential Mortgage lending Low levels of impaired loans and negligible credit losses Loans past due 60 days do not typically turn into credit losses in % Credit loss level NPLs to lending Mar '14 Effectively no net credit losses since the late 1990s, in % Mar '14 Net credit losses = the aggregated net of write-offs, recoveries and provisions 63