Interim report, Q October, 2007 Jan Lidén CEO and President
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1 Interim report, Q October, 2 Jan Lidén CEO and President
2 Summary January September 2 Shareholders net profit increased 12 percent to SEK 8,888m compared with previous year Net interest income was up 19 percent Net commission income was up 12 percent Deposit, lending and payments growth was strong on all markets Excellent access to funding during credit market turmoil TAS-Kommerzbank in Ukraine was consolidated as of Q3 Challenging macro development in Baltics. (2)
3 Financial markets turbulence impact Direct impact Valuation effects: Swedish Banking fair value option in Swedbank Mortgage was affected negatively by about SEK 129m Shared Services and Group Staffs IAS valuation of interest rates swaps for inter-company lending affected the results negatively by about SEK 9m Swedbank Markets results were affected negatively by about SEK 6m of re-valuation of credit bonds Other The lag until higher cost of funding is passed on to customers is estimated to have decreased lending margins by about 1 bp Indirect effects Swedbank Markets lower trading volumes for interest bearing securities. (3)
4 Strong position for profitability and growth Sweden Baltics Russia and Ukraine Swedbank is the leading bank in Sweden. Profitability is high and stable and the bank is consolidating its market shares in important segments in both the private and corporate sectors. Stable base The Baltic economies are experiencing strong economic growth that is expected to remain for many years. As the largest bank in the region, growing with the market ensures Swedbank an attractive earnings growth. Growth and experience Swedbank has a small but growing presence in Russia and Ukraine. Long-term, a significant share of Swedbank s growth will be generated in these markets. Future growth and profitability (4)
5 Business volumes, savings SEKbn Growth SEKbn Balance, Sept Deposits, Sweden Deposits, Baltics AM funds, Sweden AM funds, Baltics Q1 Q2 Q3 Structured products, bonds 1 Deposits, Sweden 92 Deposits, Baltics AM funds, Sweden 18 3 AM funds, Baltics Structured products, bonds OMX-S index declined by 4.5 percent during Q3 2 (5)
6 Business volumes, lending 5 4 SEKbn Growth 2 SEKbn Balance, Sept Lending, Group Private, Corporate, Sweden Sweden Private, Corporate, Baltics Baltics Other* Lending, Private, Corporate, Private, Corporate, Other* Group Sweden Sweden Baltics Baltics Q1 Q2 Q3 (6) * International Banking (incl. TAS), USA, municipalities in Sweden.
7 Margins % Lending % Deposits RIGIBOR 9 days averaged 8.5% in Q3 (9.1 in Q2) Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Lag until higher cost of funding, mainly Euribor based, is passed on to customers Estonia Latvia Estonia Latvia Lithuania Sweden Lithuania Sweden (7)
8 Loan losses, Group SEKm % Q1-3 Q2-3 Q3-3 Q4-3 Q1-4 Q2-4 Q3-4 Q4-4 Q1-5 Q2-5 Q3-5 Q4-5 Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Loan losses excl. TAS-Kommerzbank Loan losses TAS-Kommerzbank Loan loss level Increasing loan loss ratio, but still on a very low level,.9 percent For TAS, provisions are calculated as a share of the period s lending increase TAS provisioning model resulted in loan losses of SEK 8m in Q3 One particular engagement in Estonia resulted in higher loan losses. (8)
9 Swedish Banking 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 SEKm % Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Income Costs C/I-ratio Stable earnings and continued high profitability Sustained good volume growth Lending grew 3 percent and deposits 5 percent Q3 vs. Q2 Increased market shares New retail mortgages sales improved to 33 percent (32 percent as of Dec. ) Total net new household savings increased to 17 percent (15 percent for 2) Corporate customer satisfaction increased by 2.3 percentage points to 7.7 Financial markets turbulence had negative effect Swedbank Mortgage s fair value option was SEK 173m lower than in Q2 Somewhat higher cost of funding. (9)
10 Baltic Banking Operations 2,4 2,2 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, SEKm % Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Income Costs C/I-ratio Earnings continued high Net interest income increased 8 percent Q3/Q2 C/I-ratio improved to.38 Strong volume growth Expected lending growth slow down continues Decrease in staff recruitment pace Loan losses increased to 4 bps, partly due to one impaired exposure in Estonia Macro environment is still challenging. (1)
11 Credit quality, Baltic Banking 1,2% NPL/loan portfolio (12-month old),9%,6%,3%,%,8% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Est Lat Lit Loan losses to average portfolio,6%,4%,2%,% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Est Lat Lit Hansabank (11)
12 Decreasing Baltic lending growth 8, Hansabank, Estonia 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 6, Hansabank, Latvia 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % (12) 5/Mar 5/Jun 5/Sep 5/Dec /Mar /Jun /Sep /Dec /Mar /Jun /Sep 5/Mar 5/Jun 5/Sep 5/Dec /Mar /Jun /Sep /Dec /Mar /Jun /Sep 6, Hansabank, Lithuania 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 2, Baltic Banking 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 5/Mar 5/Jun 5/Sep 5/Dec /Mar /Jun /Sep /Dec /Mar /Jun /Sep 5/Mar 5/Jun 5/Sep 5/Dec /Mar /Jun /Sep /Dec /Mar /Jun /Sep Total lending, EURm YoY growth
13 Baltic Banking, market shares Estonia Latvia Lithuania Balance, % Aug, 2 Dec, 2 Aug, 2 Dec, 2 Aug, 2 Dec, 2 Deposits, households Mortgage lending, households Consumer/bank lending Deposits, SME/corporate Lending, corporate Pension II (13)
14 Baltic macro development Economy readjusting in Estonia with relatively swift slow-down from 11.4% GDP-growth in 2 to forecasted 5.5% in 28 Fast growth continues in Latvia in 2 with relatively steep slow down expected in 28 Relatively stable growth expected to continue in Lithuania, however inflationary pressures are gradually increasing Prosperity in the Baltic economies will continue to approach the EU average. Long term growth will be above EU average. 14% Real GDP growth 12% CPI growth 12% 1% 1% 8% 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% F 28F Est Lat Lit F 28F Est Lat Lit (14)
15 Swedbank Markets SEKm Difficult trading markets Credit bonds at mark-to-market decreased SEK 6m Lower fixed income trading volumes Results in First Securities declined 25 2 Profit for the quarter amounted to SEK 121m (236) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Profit for the period attributable to shareholders of Swedbank Q3 Continued success for structured products, volumes have grown 38 percent to SEK 28.4bn during the last year Group wide corporate finance unit the Nordic and Baltic area launched. (15)
16 International banking SEKm Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 International Banking, profit for the period of which Russian Banking of which Ukrainian Banking Operations Q3 New business area as of Q3 2 Growing presence outside the home markets Continued good performance by TAS- Kommerzbank in Ukraine which was consolidated as of Q3 Profit for the quarter in Russian banking increased to SEK 4m (28) Restrictions were lifted by Central bank of Russia Good development in the Nordic countries. (16)
17 TAS-Kommerzbank Expected strong long-term economic growth paired with low penetration of financial services product gives attractive business case Strong domestic demand and increased household income, GDP is expected to grow around 7 percent annually TAS follows its growth plan Distribution of consumer finance loans, credit cards, mortgages and deposits in streamlined outlets for private clients, NICE TAS BEST TAS branches for corporate customers, offers lending and deposits, cash management, trade finance etc Lending growth has been 92 percent last 12 months Number of branches has grown to 191 during the year. About 15 expected to be added during the rest of the year and will continue at a rapid pace during 28 TAS will be re-branded to Swedbank during the first half year 28. (17)
18 Group results Mikael Inglander CFO (18)
19 Income statement, Group Q3 2 Q2 2 % Q3 2 % SEKm Net interest income 4,8 4, , Net commission income 2,53 2, ,19 19 Net gains/losses on financial items at fair value Other income Total income 8,31 8, , Staff costs 2,5 2,16 3 1, Profit-based staff costs Other expenses 1,72 1, , Total expenses 4,132 4,124 3,49 18 Profit before loan losses 3,899 4,12 5 3,674 6 Loan losses Operating profit 3,669 4, 8 3,741 2 Tax Profit for the period 2,876 3, ,935 2 Attributable to shareholders of Swedbank 2,866 3, ,911 2 (19)
20 Net interest income Q3- (Q2-) SEKm 5, 173 4,8 4, , , (2) Net interest income Q2- Swedish Banking Baltic Banking Operations Baltic Banking Investment International Banking Swedbank Markets Shared Services and other Net interest income Q3-
21 Swedish Banking, change in net interest income Q3 2 vs Q2 2 Q3 2 vs Q3 2 SEKm Net interest income Q Net interest income Q Changes: Higher lending volumes Decreased lending margins Difference in number of days/quarter, lending 19 Higher deposit volumes Higher deposit margins 4 17 Difference in number of days/quarter, deposits 1 Other changes Total change 21 7 Net interest income Q (21)
22 Baltic Banking, change in net interest income Q3 2 vs Q2 2 Q3 2 vs Q3 2 SEKm Net interest income Q2 2 1,377 Net interest income Q Changes: Higher lending volumes Decreased lending margins Difference in number of days/quarter, lending 1 FX-effects, lending 2 2 Higher deposit volumes Higher deposit margins Difference in number of days/quarter, deposits 6 FX-effects, deposits 1 1 Other changes Total change Net interest income Q3 2 1,487 1,487 (22)
23 Net commission income, Group Q1 2 Q2 2 Q3 2 Q4 2 Q1 2 Q2 2 Q3 2 (23) Asset management Payments Brokerage Lending Insurance Corporate finance Other SEKm
24 Net gains on financial items, fair value Q3 (Q2) SEKm Mainly valuation effects in swap portfolio Net gains Q2- Fair value option Swedbank Mortgage MasterCard shares FX effects TAS acquisition Credit bond portfolio Group treasury and other Net gains Q3- (24)
25 Expenses SEKm Q3 2 Q2 2 % Q3 2 % Swedish Banking 2,28 2,33 5 2,55 7 Baltic Banking Swedbank Markets International Banking Of which Ukrainian Banking 134 Other business areas Total expenses 4,132 4,124 3,49 18 of which staff costs in: Swedish Banking 1,93 1, Baltic Banking Swedbank Markets International Banking (25)
26 Loan losses Q3- (Q2-) SEKm (26) Loan losses, Q2- Swedish Banking Baltic Banking International Banking Other Loan losses, Q3-
27 Business areas Q3 vs Q3, SEKm Swedish Banking Q3 2 % Baltic Banking Q3 2 % Swedbank Markets Q3 2 % Asset Mgmt Q3 2 % Internat. Banking Q3 2 % Net interest income 2,926 1, Net commission income 1, Other income Total income 4, , Staff costs 1, Other expenses 1, Total expenses 2, Profit before loan losses 2,14 1 1, Loan losses Operating profit 2, , Tax Profit for the period 1, , To Swedbank's shareholders 1, , ROE, % (27)
28 Key figures Jan - Sep, 2 Jan - Sep, 2 Return on equity, % Earnings per share, SEK Equity per share, SEK C/I ratio before loan losses Loan loss ratio, net, %..2 Share of impaired loans, %.14.9 Provision ratio for impaired loans, % Tier 1 capital ratio, % Capital adequacy ratio, % Excl. TAS-Kommerzbank, loan loss level was.4 percent and share of impaired loans was.11 percent in September 2. (28)
29 Tier 1 ratio, Group % % Tier 1 ratio was 6.2 percent Acquisition of TAS-Kommerzbank decreased the tier 1 ratio by 73 bps. Issue of hybrid capital during Q3 improved the ratio by 23 bps Gradual introduction of Basel II regulations gives a reduction of 5 percent of RWAs as of January 28. Q1-5 Q2-5 Q3-5 Q4-5 Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Tier 1 ratio Target Tier 1 ratio (29)
30 Summary January September 2 Shareholders net profit increased 12 percent to SEK 8,888m compared with previous year Net interest income was up 19 percent Net commission income was up 12 percent Deposit, lending and payments growth was strong on all markets Excellent access to funding during credit market turmoil TAS-Kommerzbank in Ukraine was consolidated as of Q3 Challenging macro development in Baltics. (3)
31 Capital Markets Day 5 March 28 Tentative location: Kiev (31)
32 Appendix (32)
33 Lending by sectors Baltic Banking Portfolio, September 2 Portfolio growth, Q3 Individuals % % Real-estate mgmt % % Retail & Wholesale % 98 8% Industry % 45 Transport % 44 Construction 546 3% -4 Other % % % - share of portfolio and portfolio growth (33)
34 Swedbank Mortgage, secure base for external financing Percent <3% 3-6% 6-75% 75-85% >85% Distribution of loan to value (average = 42%), one percent of loan portfolio has a loan-to-value ratio exceeding 75 percent Swedbank is a net lender to the interbank market The parent company issues securities of its own partly to fill a minor financing need and partly to ensure a substantial liquidity reserve Swedbank s lending to the public, disregarding Swedbank Mortgage, is to about 9 percent financed through deposits and equity Very high credit quality assures good access to financing Swedbank Mortgage is wholesale funded, principally by issuing securities in its own name (34)
35 Funding and liquidity FAQ Excellent access to funding maintained during recent months Strategy is to develop and maintain a well diversified and broad investor base in all core markets. Long term target of funds raised outside Sweden should be around 5 percent. Well diversified funding base with diversified sources of funding Deposit surplus in parent bank, Swedbank is market leader in deposits Capital markets funding, mainly to finance mortgage lending, is mostly programme financed, 9 percent is from interbank funding Domestic mortgage bonds, US CP, CDE and ECP, EMTN, GMTN programmes Conversion of mortgage bonds to covered bonds (AAA realistic) during H1 28 Funding of Baltic operation in hard currency is performed by Group Treasury All funding programs have good liquidity Swedbank is a net lender in the interbank market Conservative view at liquidity risk, continuously revised Substantial liquidity reserves, both at Group level and in Baltic operations. (35)
36 Exposure FAQ No direct US Sub-Prime exposure Minimal indirect exposure through investments of USD 95m in bonds issued by US mortgage institutions who, in their turn, have exposure towards US sub-prime Total exposure towards structured credits is minimal No commitments towards conduits or SIV s of any kind Negligible exposure towards CDO s Swedbank holds a very small CDO trading stock for client trades in CDO s which we have issued ourselves with mainly large Cap s as underlying risk 8% of the tranches held are rated Aaa and 2% are rated A Hedge fund exposure is about SEK 4.8bn, all collateralized Exposure towards private equity firms and their target companies is about SEK 12.5bn in total Nordic related LBO s Above mentioned exposure represents approximately 1.1 percent of total assets. (36)
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