The Safer Road Investment Plans business case and potential of pay-for success bonds. John Dawson Chairman International Road Assessment Programme

Transcription

1 The Safer Road Investment Plans business case and potential of pay-for success bonds John Dawson Chairman International Road Assessment Programme

2 A citizen cannot buy a safer road

3 Road Crashes Cost 2-5% GDP 1.2 million deaths 50 million injuries

4 How much are we willing to pay? The higher our GDP, the more we are able to pay for prevention eg Kenya 10% of high income countries

5 Cost of Fatal & Serious Road Crashes Income Group Fatalities Economic Cost* % of GDP Low (36) 130,000 US$ 20 billion 5% Low-Middle (52) 495,000 US$ 205 billion 5% Upper-Middle (54) 510,000 US$ 780 billion 5% High (51) 95,000 US$ 850 billion 2% TOTAL 1,230,000 US$1,855 billion 3% *Preliminary results (rounded): WHO (2013), irap (2013)

6 Accounting for Global Financial Loss 1 serious crash: can cause court award of $40m (high income country) throw a family into poverty (low income country) International regimes difficult to compare at fault, no fault at work compensation finance of health, long term care Public vs Private purse

7 Case Study: UK Motor Insurance at fault regime $35m third party $20k if at fault $15bn annual claims 85% by number, bent metal 50% by value, bodily injury 25% of bodily injury costs are lawyers fees ($2bn)

8 Allocating Costs

9 Why Road Safety is Underfunded Who Pays The Health Sector Crashes consume 75% of hospital capacity for treating head injuries Long Term Care Life changing injury can require 70 years of care Insurance Insurance premiums and payouts account for 1% of GDP Business & Families Caring for a loved one Congestion from road crashes Death or injury of a worker Who has Solutions The Road > 50% of roads are only 1- or 2- star The Vehicle World car fleet will double in next years The Road User Speed, Alcohol, Distraction, Fatigue, Helmets, Seat Belts

10 FOLLOW THE MONEY

11 Victoria A Closed Financial Loop

12 New Institutions or New Financial Instruments? Obama Administration promoting "pay for success bonds throughout Federal and state agencies Includes road "safety bonds Sir Ronald Cohen leading G8 Social Impact Task Force

13 New Focus on Costs

14 We can measure the safety of roads Risk mapping measures the system road, vehicle and driver Star Rating measures the road Colour coded maps: one language for public, elected members, investors, engineers

15 Before and After Star Ratings

16 Crash Cost Map for Spain

17 Annual Serious Crash Costs 3.5bn lost on main roads 0.5bn motorways 1bn trunk roads 1bn primary A 1.5bn non-primary A

18 Crash Costs Per Km

19 Star Ratings and Crash Data CRASH COSTS HALVED FOR EACH STAR RATING IMPROVEMENT

20 Minimum Rational Safety Levels Motorway 5-star National road 4-star Busy regional road 3-star

21 Setting Measurable Goals Netherlands minimum 3-star for national roads by 2020 Sweden 75% of travel on safe (3-/4- star) roads by 2020 New Zealand 4-star for roads of national significance World Bank Projects developing minimum 3-star

22 AFTER BEFORE

23 Before After Demonstration Data Bruce Highway, Australia

24 How Social Impact Bonds Work

25 Is a Social Impact Bond Suitable? desired outcome is clear and measurable (eg reducing recidivism) the quality of outcomes can improve desire to prove programmes effective government looking to transfer risk desire to catalyse innovative financing a large proportion of savings are cashable or funding is available for this outcome

26 The Peterborough SIB Pilot Ministry of Justice pilot Delivered by NGO investor return 2 13% depending on recidivism 1 st of 20 SIB 14 UK 5 USA 2 Aus 1 NL

27 Social Impact Bonds Case Study: Mexico 525 km sample road network Roadside barriers (both sides): Estimated year 1 capital: Annual benefits: 268.7km US$52 million US$46 million Recoverable crash cost savings: 36% Annual divided stream: Concession period US$17 million 20 years Internal Rate of Return 32% Demonstration Data

28 What Needs to be Done coordinated G8+ pilots of Infrastructure Safety Bond based on ppp approach seek commercial profit-withpurpose investors eg leading motor insurers research cashable costs