The Italian Asset Management market

Transcription

1 key figures Presentation to the Board of Directors October 9th 2012 Alessandro Rota

2 1. Summary statistics Focus on open-end funds Focus on mandates 2. The European Investment Fund Industry Net assets & sales by fund / fund group domicile 3. Savings & Wealth Household saving rate: trend & int l comparison Household financial portfolio & private pension plans

3 The Italian AM Mkt: the last 12+ months 1,006 Mand Funds III Mand. Funds IV % % Perf. I % 1.9 II M7 8 51% Perf EMTX Italy 3 5Y % 50% 4.1% 49% % +8.2% MSCIWorld Jun 2011 Dec 2011 Aug2012 AuM, net flows & performance, bn. 3

4 III Open end Funds III IV I II M7 8 Retail Mandates (discretionary portfolios) Product breakdown % % III IV 44 4% % 4% 9% % III I M7 8 II % Closed end Funds Institutional Mandates Net Flows Asset growth rate 3.8 IV I % II 0.7 M IV 2012 I II M % 4

5 AuM (Aug 2012) Top 15 Groups Net flows YTD 2011H2 0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% EURIZON CAPITAL 17% BANCA FIDEURAM 5% GENERALI 15% PIONEER INVESTMENTS 10% MEDIOLANUM 4% AMHOLDING 56% ALLIANZ POSTE ITALIANE UBI BANCA 3% +103% BNP PARIBAS AMUNDI 2% 70% AXA FRANKLIN TEMPLETON BANCO POPOLARE AZIMUT ARCA bn 80% Funds Mand. x%: Mkt share + Net sales as % AuM 5

6 Open-end funds: domicile breakdown Dec % 34% % +8.0 Dec Domestic Round trip 4.0 Foreign Aug % 42% 33% I II III IV 2012 I II M7 8 AuM & net flows, bn. 6

7 Top 15 Groups (open-end funds only) AuM (Aug 2012) Net flows YTD 2011H2 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% EURIZON CAPITAL BANCA FIDEURAM PIONEER INVESTMENTS AM HOLDING MEDIOLANUM FRANKLIN TEMPLETON GENERALI UBI BANCA AZIMUT BNP PARIBAS ARCA AMUNDI JPMORGAN SCHRODERS PICTET MORGAN STANLEY bn 16% 8% 13% 6% 5% 53% 4% 3% 71% 2% 81% Domestic Round trip Foreign x%: Mkt share + Net sales as % AuM 7

8 Asset Class breakdown Equity Balanced Money Market Bond Flexible Hedge 22% 4% 9% 48% 14% 2% Domestic Round-trip Foreign 14% 16% 21% 17% 12% 47% 50% 46% 36% 144 bn 34% 172 bn 41% 107 bn 25% Jun

9 AuM (Jun 2012) Equity & balanced funds Net flows YTD 2011H2 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% ITALY EURO AREA 4% 5% EUROPE AMERICA 17% 18% PACIFIC AREA 9% EMERGING MKTS 19% SPECIAL. COUNTRY 6% GLOBAL 12% SPECIAL. SECTOR 8% OTHER 3% BALANCED bn Domestic Round trip Foreign x%: Mkt share + Net sales as % AuM 9

10 Money mkt, Bond, Flex & Hedge funds AuM (Jun 2012) Net flows YTD 2011H2 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% MM FUNDS ITALY 3% EURO GOV. SHORT T. EURO GOV. M/L TERM 14% 14% EURO CORPORATE / HY DOLLAR AREA GLOBAL EM 2% 6% 6% 11% 26% 20% 25% MIXED 7% SPECIALIZED 14% FLEX (BOND) 22% FLEX HEDGE bn Domestic Round trip Foreign x%: Mkt share + Net sales as % AuM 10

11 Net & gross flows Net Gross ( bn) ( bn) Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 0 50% 40% 30% 20% Gross Sales Gross Redemptions Net Sales Funds w/net Sales>0 11

12 Gross flows: captive vs. non-captive ManCo Captive Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Non captive Gross Sales Gross Redemptions 12

13 The blockbuster effect : top quartile funds take all MMF / Short Term Tot. / Abs. Return Target / Coupon 30 Target / Tot. / Abs. Return MMF/ ST Target / Coupon MMF/ ST Target / Coupon Tot. / Abs. Return Coupon Tot/Abs Target / Target / Corporate Corporate MMF/ ST Corporate MMF/ ST Corporate MMF / Short Term Return Coupon Coupon Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Net flows, bn. I II III IV Top 1% New Stories 13

14 New stories: they sell well... but how long? Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q Curr. +1Q +2Q +3Q Newly launched funds ( new stories ): net flows in current & following 3 quarters. bn. 14

15 New stories tag cloud Year :2012Q2 New funds EQUITY MONET COUPON ETF 20x FORMULA INDEX SELECTION CASH MONEY ASIA CONVERTIBLE EMERGING LIQUID BREVE BOND STRUCTURED CEDOLA CORPORATE PROTETTO CONVERTIBLE MONET BOND FORMULA CEDOLA LIQUID BREVE ETF PROTETTO COUPON SELECTION STRUCTURED ASIA MONEY EMERGING CASH CORPORATE EQUITY INDEX 20x EMERGING STRUCTURED INDEX BREVE EQUITY CASH LIQUID CORPORATE MONEY CEDOLA SELECTION PROTETTO COUPON CONVERTIBLE 20x FORMULA ASIA MONET BOND ETF MONET SELECTION EMERGING ETF STRUCTURED 20x CEDOLA MONEY COUPON BREVE PROTETTO FORMULA ASIA INDEX LIQUID CASH CORPORATE CONVERTIBLE BOND EQUITY 15

16 DISCRETIONARY MANDATES (GPF) 5% Mandates: AuM & Net Sales trends AuM (Jun 2012) Net flows YTD 2011H2 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% DISCRETIONARY MANDATES (GPM) 14% PENSION PLANS 7% INSURANCE PRODUCTS (TRADITIONAL) 47% INSURANCE PRODUCTS (UNIT & INDEX L ED) 13% OTHER 15% bn Domestic Co. Foreign Co. x%: Mkt share + Net sales as % AuM 16

17 Top 15 Groups (mandates only) AuM (Aug 2012) Net flows YTD 2011H2 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% GENERALI 25% EURIZON CAPITAL 19% BANCA FIDEURAM 4% PIONEER INVESTMENTS 8% ALLIANZ POSTE ITALIANE AXA 4% 6% 69% +102% MEDIOLANUM BANCO POPOLARE 2% UBI BANCA AMUNDI 84% AM HOLDING CREDIT SUISSE BNP PARIBAS MONTEPASCHI 1% 66% 12.1 CREDITO EMILIANO bn Retail 92% Instit. x%: Mkt share Net sales as % AuM 17

18 The market for Institutional Mandates Insurance products 67% Managed by ManCos Pension funds As is... (2012 Q2) % and as could become: Household portfolio: share of insurance products & pension funds (2012Q1) IT FRA GER UK USA 18.1% 34.8% 33.9% 51.2% 28.8% Source: ANIA, Covip, Assogestioni, Eurostat, OECD. 18

19 1. Summary statistics Focus on open-end funds Focus on mandates 2. The European Investment Fund Industry Net assets & sales by fund / fund group domicile 3. Savings & Wealth Household saving rate: trend & int l comparison Household financial portfolio & private pension plans

20 Net Assets by fund domicile +11% +10% 8,630 1% 2,297 5% 1,482 +7% 1% 1,223 +8% +1% 1, % +10% Ucits 34% MMFs 94% Spezialf % +1% % +8% 188 3% 17% 72% Non Ucits 12M7 Growth rate 11 France 17% Germany 14% UK 10% Switzerland 4% Italy 2% Luxembourg 27% Ireland 14% Europe 100% 47% 41% Jul bn. Source: Efama, AFG, BVI. 20

21 Net Assets by fund domicile Long-term growth Ireland Luxembourg 200 UK France 100 Germany Italy Q2 Index values. Source: Efama. 21

22 Net sales by fund domicile Italy France Germany 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% IV 5% IV I 26% 17% I II III II II III I UK Luxembourg Europe 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% IV III IV III III II I II I % % 5% Net sales as a % of AuM. Yearly data in bn. Source: Efama, BVI. 22

23 Net sales by fund domicile & asset class Italy France Germany 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% 1% 14% 9% 4% 12% 8% I II IV III II I IV III I II UK Luxembourg Europe 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% IV III II I IV III II I I II 3% 3% % ' % 3% 2% 3% 4% 4% Equity+Balanced Bonds+MM Others+Non Ucits Net sales as a % of AuM. Source: Efama, Assogestioni, BVI. 23

24 Net Assets by fund group domicile 2,224 58% 8,437 1,644 +6% 3% +5% 1,595 1% 1,534 Exp 10% +10% 1% Exp > 90% 1,157 38% Domestic Funds Ucits Domestic Funds Non Ucits Luxembourg Funds % +0% Irish Funds 12Q2 +0% Growth rate % France Germany UK Switzerland Italy 11% 25% 42% 53% 48% Luxembourg Ireland Europe 2012Q2. bn. Foreign share in %. Est. on Efama, Assogestioni, ALFI & IFIA data. 24

25 Net sales: fund domicile vs. fund group domicile IV 5%% I II Italy 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% IV I 26% 17% III II II III 22% 11% I France 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% Germany 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% UK Luxembourg Europe 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% I IV III II IV III II I I II +8% % 5% % Net sales as a % of AuM. Fund domicile (blue), fund group domicile (black). Est. on Efama, Assogestioni, ALFI, IFIA & BVI data. 25

26 1. Summary statistics Focus on open-end funds Focus on mandates 2. The European Investment Fund Industry Net assets & sales by fund / fund group domicile 3. Savings & Wealth Household saving rate: trend & int l comparison Household financial portfolio & private pension plans

27 Italian household saving rate 3% 17% Saving rate is the result of the 2% 16% interaction between growth rate of 1% 15% income and consumption. 0% 14% It fell during the -1% 13% crisis: consumption fell less than income. -2% 12% Smoothing effects -3% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q % on households h wellbeing. Disposable income. % growth rate (I.) Consumption. % growth rate (I.) Saving rate (gross). % (r.) Seasonally adjusted. Source: ISTAT. 27

28 Household saving rates in Europe 25% 25% Falling since % 20% Now in line with European average, and still declining 15% 10% 5% 0% 15% 10% 5% 0% Q1 Countries worst hit by the crisis (e.g. UK & E) showed an increase in saving rates from historically low levels, mainly as a result of consumption fall. AVG EU Italy Germany France Spain UK Gross household saving rates. Source: Eurostat. 28

29 Household financial portfolio breakdown Bonds Stocks Pension Total Asset Currency & Investment Issued funds & bn deposits Total Total Listed funds by banks life pr Italy , , , , , Q1 3, France 4, Germany 4, e UK 5, USA 39, n.a High level of direct investment (~ 40%) Significant amounts of bank issued bonds (10%) Negligible ibl level l of listed shares. High level of unlisted ones. Funds: rise until 1999 (17.2%) then fall (hump shaped) Pensions/life product: up but still too modest. %. Source: Eurostat, OECD, BCE, Deutsche Bundesbank. 29

30 Managed products in household portfolios Investment funds Pension funds & life products 20% abnormally high? 60% 18% 16% 50% 14% 40% 12% 10% 30% 8% 6% too low? 20% 4% 10% 2% 0% Q Q1 0% Italy France Germany United Kingdom USA Source: Eurostat, OECD, BCE, Deutsche Bundesbank. 30

31 Public Pensions (1st pillar) Cost (% GDP) Future substitution rates Age: 68 (70) + 38 (40)y of contrib. 80% 1 Private % sector employee 4 Today 60% Self employed 1 ante L 243/ ante DL 78/ % 3 ante DL 98/ ante DL 201/ % Source: Ragioneria Generale dello Stato. 31

32 Private pension plans at a glance (2nd & 3rd pillar) (,000) 2011 Working pop. (est.) Membership rate 2008 Membership rate Member breakdown 5,537 22,967 24% 21% Private sector employees 3,993 13,819 29% 26% Public sector employees 152 3,421 4% 4% Self employed 1,392 5,727 24% 19% Members Assets (,000) % '11 % 4y % ( m) % GDP Vehicle breakdown 5, % +5% +14% 90, % Contractual p.f. 1,994 36% 1% 2% 25,272 Open p.f % +4% +11% 8,364 Ind. Insurance Plans (PIP) 2,025 36% +14% +47% 13,192 Ante 1993 p.f. (p ('pre existing') g) % 0% 2% 43,900 Source: Covip, Istat, RGS. 32

33 Private sector employees: failure of automatic enrolment 13.7m 13.8m 301K Not Enrolled Opt-Out 12.4m 1.2m 292K 21% 227K 20% 266K 8% 7% 71% 29% 84% 15% 6% Enrolled 2.2m 4.0m Dec Dec 2011 New members: Automatic Enrolment Voluntary Enrolment Source: est. based on Covip data. 33

34 key figures Presentation to the Board of Directors October 9th 2012 Alessandro Rota