Europe Update. November 4, 2004

Transcription

1 Europe Update November 4,

2 Table of Contents European Overview European Markets 1

3 European Overview 2

4 Our European Business Full Line of Financial Services Morgan Stanley Investment Management Institutional Securities Individual Investor Group Consumer Banking Group Equity Research Equity Fixed Income Investment Banking Private Wealth Mgmt Global Capital Markets Securitized Product Equity Capital Debt Capital Group Markets Markets Institutional Securities Joint Ventures Banking Team Mergers, Acquisitions and Restructuring Investment Banking Division Real Estate Group 3

5 European Revenue Trends Revenues ($MM) 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Morgan Stanley European Revenues vs. MSCI Index Performance MSCI Closing Value 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Europe MSCI Notes: Source: MSCI data from MSCI; average monthly closing value Morgan Stanley 10-K filings 4

6 European Revenues 1997 and 2003 Global and European Revenues Europe 12% Other Int l 6% Europe 20% Other Int l 9% Global Revenues $14.8Bn European Revenues $1.8Bn Global Revenues $20.9Bn European Revenues $4.1Bn Source: Morgan Stanley 10K Filings 5

7 Historical Market Positioning YTD Total Number of Years in Top 3 Market Share Position 9 European Primary Debt and Equity Issuance, Announced M&A Deals $100MM Source: Goldman Sachs Thomson Financial Morgan Stanley Deutsche Bank Merrill Lynch Debt Issuance Equity Issuance M&A CSFB UBS JPM Citi BarCap Lazard 6

8 Morgan Stanley s Growth in Europe European Revenues ($MM) 5,000 Phase 3: Build-up Phase 4: Premier Firm 4,000 3,000 2,000 Phase 2: Expansion 1,000 Phase 1: Start-up Source: Morgan Stanley 10-K filings and Annual Reports. 7

9 European Markets 8

10 Size Matters Key Statistics Population (000s) Area (Km²) GDP ($Bn) GDP Growth (%) Inflation (%) Unemployment (%) U.S. 293,028 9,631,418 10, EU ,700 3,972,866 9, Source: Eurostat (GDP as of 2003, all others as of 2004) / U.S. figures as of June

11 Secular Drivers Secular Trends Globalization Deregulation Pension Reform Shareholder Focus Disintermediation Search for Yield Risk Management Regulation Morgan Stanley Lead with Strengths Long-term Client Relationships Expertise / Product Capability / Advice / Distribution Deep Roots in Local Markets Global Platform 10

12 Equity Market Capitalization vs. GDP Equity Market Cap vs. GDP 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 $Tr Mkt cap / GDP % 14,916 US 143% EU-25 52% 10,446 UK 150% 9,613 Germany 46% France 127% 4,949 Spain 84% 2,505 1,666 2,198 1,646 2,095 1, US EU-25 UK Germany France Spain GDP Equity Market Cap Source: GDP data in PPP from The Economist, as of December Market capitalization data from World Federation of Exchanges, as of September 30,

13 Growth of Exchanges 62 4, , , , ,413 1, ,068 Total Value of Share Trading $Bn 9,541 1,627 8,697 1,503 1, ,829 5, , ,520 3,399 2,888 1,842 1,108 1,340 2,120 1,492 1,551 2,120 1,423 7,836 7,657 6, , ,001 3,624 3,809 1,988 1,905 1,840 1,212 1,305 1, YTD Deutsche Börse Euronext Paris London Italy Spanish Exchanges Source: World Federation of Exchanges. Data as of September 30,

14 European Debt Market Annual European Bond Issuance $Bn 1,200 1, EMU (1) Deutsche Telekom (2) YTD Total Euro-Denominated Bonds Euro-Denominated Investment Grade Bonds Source: Thomson as of September 24, Notes: (1) EMU market the beginning of a more active primary corporate bond market in Europe. (2) The DT multi-tranche bond offering in the summer of 2000 was the first of many jumbo deals pushing new issuance volumes to record highs. 13

15 European Securitization Market Total Yearly New Issue Volume European Securitization Issuance $MM MSCI Closing Value 250, , , ,000 50, Securitizations MSCI 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Source: Thomson, MSCI 14

16 European Strategic Opportunities Multi-asset class products and services Hedge funds Middle markets Financial institutions Local investment / deep roots Russia 15

17 Focus on Europe 16

18 Europe Update November 4,