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1 Bianco Research L.L.C. An Arbor Research & Trading Affiliated Company Independent Objective Original Updating Leverage In The Bond Market Presentation Package November 18, 4 Long-Term Interest Rates - 19 to 3
2 Valuing Interest Rates % Year-over-year Change in U.S. Nominal GDP and the Yield of the 5-year U.S. Treasury Note Last (Sep) Nominal GDP Annual Growth = 6.18% Last (Sep) 5-Year Treasury Yield = 3.69% 5-Year Treasury Note % The chart on this page shows what we believe is the best valuation yardstick for the bond market. The bars in the top panel show the year-over-year change in nominal GDP (real GDP plus inflation). The line in the top panel shows the monthend yield of the 5-year Treasury Note. (We chose the 5-year Treasury Note because it represents the middle of the yield curve and it is close to the average interest rate of all Treasury securities. Any other point on the yield curve, or even corporate bond yields, could have been used and would show similar results.) 1 1 8% % Difference between the Yield of the 5-year U.S. Treasury Note and Change in Year-over-year U.S. Nominal GDP Dec-68 Dec-7 Dec-72 YoY Change in Nominal GDP Dec-74 Dec-76 Dec-78 Dec- Dec-82 Dec-84 Last (Sep 4) Difference = -2.48% Dec-86 Dec-88 Dec-9 Dec-92 Dec-94 Dec-96 Dec-98 Dec- Dec-2 Dec % % The bottom panel of the chart shows the difference between the yield of the 5-year Treasury Note and the year-over-year change in nominal GDP. As of September, 4 (the latest GDP measure), nominal GDP annual growth was 6.18%, the 5-year Treasury Note was 3.69%, netting a difference between the two of 2.48%. Think of this measure as an asset valuation model. If the asset, in this case the entire U.S. economy as measured by nominal GDP, returns a rate higher than the prevailing interest rate (the 5-year Treasury Note), then it makes sense for a business to borrow and expand. One can make money in such an environment because the asset has a higher return than the cost of borrowing. This will cause an increase in the demand for credit and put upward pressure on the price of credit -- interest rates. This will last as long as interest rates are below the yearover-year change in nominal GDP (or at least the perception that interest rates are below expected nominal GDP). Alternatively, if interest rates (5-year Treasury Note) are higher than the returns provided by the economy (nominal GDP), then borrowing to buy is a money-losing proposition. In this case, the demand for credit will fall because the profit incentive is not present. This will drive the price of credit (interest rates) down as long as interest rates are above the expected growth rate, or perceived growth rate, of nominal GDP. Bianco Research, L.L.C November 18, 4 2
3 Valuing Interest Rates - 2 9% 8% 7% 5% % - Dec-89 Dec-9 Difference between the Yield of the 5-year U.S. Treasury Note and The Calculated Fair Value Last (Sep 4) = -3.2 Dec-91 Dec-92 The Yield of the 5-year U.S. Treasury Note Versus Calculated Fair Value 5-Year Treasury Note (Thin Line) Dec-93 Dec-94 Calculated Fair Value (Thick Line) Dec-95 Dec-96 Dec-97 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec- Dec-1 Dec-2 Dec-3 9% 8% 7% 6.9 5% 3.69% % - Dec-4 The year-over-year change of Q3 4 nominal GDP was 6.18%. This was 2.48% above the yield of the 5-year Treasury Note on September (3.69%). After adjusting the year-over-year change in nominal GDP for supply, the calculated fair value for the 5-year Treasury Note rises to 6.9. This is 324 basis points above the 5-year s yield on September. Given a static snapshot of the economy and supply, interest rates appear to be greatly under valued. What does this mean? We believe it means one of two things. The bond market is pricing in the expectation of a dramatic slowdown in the economy and/or an elimination of the deficit to the point of a significant surplus. In other words, the market expects fair value to move toward the current level of interest rates (by plunging). It is evidence that the current level of interest rates is out of whack with current state of the economy and supply (surplus/deficit). Anytime interest rates diverge from fair value, option #1 is always a possibility. That is, the market is discounting fair value moving towards current interest rate levels. It is, however, option #2 that is most intriguing right now. Given all the talk about leveraged speculation, convexity trading, and accommodative Fed policy (the fed funds rate is below neutral ), the huge divergence between the current level of interest rates and fair value illustrates how great these noneconomic factors are driving the bond market. If this is indeed the case, we would look for fair value and interest rates to converge once the Fed starts raising rates. If so, this means the five-year yield will most likely rise and rise substantially. Bianco Research, L.L.C November 18, 4 3
4 Inflation And Inflation Expectations - 1 Core CPI & Targeted Fed Funds Rate 7% 7% Core Consumer Price Index - Heavy Blue Line Targeted Fed Funds Rate - Thin Red Line % 5. Core CPI vs. Core PCE % % 4.5% 5% 5% % Core CPI % 2. Core PCE 1.5% 1.5% % % % The Difference Between Core CPI and Targeted Fed Funds Rate 5% 5% 5.5% 5.5% 1.5% PCE Sep-98 Sep-99 Sep- Sep-1 Sep-2 Sep-3 Sep-4 1/31/199 1/31/1991 1/31/1992 1/31/1993 1/31/1994 1/31/1995 1/31/1996 1/31/1997 1/31/1998 1/31/1999 1/31/ 1/31/1 1/31/2 1/31/3 1/31/4 1/31/5 1/31/199 1/31/1991 1/31/1992 1/31/1993 1/31/1994 1/31/1995 1/31/1996 1/31/1997 1/31/1998 1/31/1999 1/31/ 1/31/1 1/31/2 1/31/3 1/31/4 1/31/5 2..5% Consumer Price Index vs. Personal Consumption Expenditure 6.5% % % % All Urban CPI % % % % % 1..5%.5% Bianco Research, L.L.C November 18, 4 4
5 Inflation And Inflation Expectations - 2 7% Consumer Price Index All Urban CPI & Targeted Fed Funds Rate All Urban Consumer Price Index - Heavy Blue Line Targeted Fed Funds Rate - Thin Red Line 7% Year "TIPS" Breakeven Point and the 1-Year Annualized Rate of CPI 1-Year Annualized rate of CPI 5// % 5% /7/98 5/8/ /2/1 5/11/ /31/1 5/14/ "TIPS" Breakeven Yield of the 1-Year Treasury Note minus the Yield of 1-Year TIPS Note 2/25/ The Difference Between All Urban CPI and Targeted Fed Funds Rate Expectations Index - Inflation Components Only: 1/31/ = -125 Sep-98 Sep-99 Sep- Sep-1 Sep-2 Sep-3 Sep-4 1/8/1998 5/28/1998 1/15/1998 3/4/1999 7/22/ /9/1999 4/27/ 9/14/ 2/1/1 6/21/1 11/8/1 3/28/2 8/15/2 1/2/3 5/22/3 1/9/3 2/26/4 7/15/4 12/2/4 - - Expectations Index - Inflation Components Only Components - Inflation Components Only CPI PPI CPI ex. Food and Energy PPI ex. Food and Energy GDP Deflator Oct-91 Aug-92 Jun-93 Apr-94 Feb-95 Dec-95 Oct-96 Aug-97 Jun-98 Apr-99 Feb- Dec- Oct-1 Aug-2 Jun-3 Apr-4 Feb-5 Expectations Index - Inflation Components Only (Solid Line) Expectations Index - Inflation Components Only (Solid Line) Bianco Research, L.L.C November 18, 4 5
6 What Do Economists Think? Table 1 The Wall Street Journal Forecasting Survey Long-Term Interest Rate Forecasts for the Next Six Months 1 Was the % Of Respondents That Were Forecasted Actual Forecast in Forecasting Long-Rates To Be: Date of Change in Change in Direction Survey Yield Yield Correct? Higher Lower Unchanged Jul YES 48% 5 Jan % YES 5 4 Jul % YES 48% 4 5% Jan NO 3 7 Jul NO 49% 5 Jan % NO 58% 4 Jul-98.8% -.55% NO 6 35% Jan %.89% NO 37% 5 9% Jul %.5 NO 28% 67% Jan % YES 3 49% 15% Jul NO 6 1 Jan %.3 1 NO 2 69% 1 Jul % YES 39% 59% Jan NO 4 58% Jul % NO 9 7% Jan NO 95% 5% Jul YES 87% 9% Jan YES 9 Jul-4.55%?????? 98% 1 = Starting with the July 1 survey, the benchmark interest rate changed from the -year bond to the 1-year note. The actual change for January 1 reflects the change of the -year bond. Source: The Wall Street Journal 98% (54 of 55) of all economists surveyed are looking for higher interest rates by the end of the year. Only James Smith of North Carolina University was looking for 1-year yields to fall. This is the most one-sided this survey has ever been. Likewise, the consensus is looking for 1-year rates to increase 55 basis points the third most aggressive forecast since this survey began in 1982 (only the January 3 forecast of an increase of 6 basis points and the January 1991 forecast of a decrease of 59 basis points were more aggressive). Almost Unanimous - Looking For Higher Rates Results From Bloomberg's Monthly Economist Survey For The 1-Year Treasury Yield Median Forecast 1-Year 6-Months (2 Qrts) Number of Economists % Expecting % Expecting Highest Yield Foreword Change Surveyed Higher Rates Lower Rates Forecast Lowest Forecsat Survey Date 17-Dec % Mar % 4.25%.28% % May % % % 9-Jun % % 2-Jul % % 8-Aug % % Sep % 57 77% Oct % % Nov % Dec % 4.55%.28% % Jan % Feb-4 4.5% % Mar % % 5.25% 3.75% 6-Apr % % May % % 8-Jun % % % 4.45% 7-Jul % Aug Sep Oct % % 5% Nov-4 4.7% % Bianco Research, L.L.C November 18, 4 6
7 What Do Managers Think? ISI Duration Survey 4. Duration Survey (Left Scale) Long-Bond Yields (Right Scale) Bianco Research, L.L.C November 18, 4 7 Duration as a Percentage of a Benchmark (4 Week Average) 12/29/89 12/14/9 11/29/91 11/13/92 1/29/93 1/14/94 9/29/95 9/13/96 8/29/97 8/14/98 7//99 7/14/ 6/29/1 6/14/2 5//3 5/14/4 4/29/5 Long-Bond Yields (Bars) PLOTTED INVERSELY Survey Developed by Ed Hyman of ISI Research and Strategy JP Morgan Client Survey And 1-Year Yields /12/1996 6// /27/1996 5/6/1997 1/13/1997 3/22/1998 8/29/1998 2/5/1999 7/15/ /22/1999 5// 11/6/ 4/15/1 9/22/1 3/1/2 8/8/2 1/15/3 6/24/3 12/1/3 5/9/4 1/16/4 3/25/5 J.P. Morgan Client Survey Index (Thick Blue Line 1-Year Yields (Thin Red Line 7.5% % 1-Year Yields Right Scale % % % 3. J.P. Morgan Client Survey Index -- Left Scale Survey Index = % Short + % % Long + % 2.5% % 1.
8 Tax Haven Countries As A Proxy For Hedge Funds 11 Holdings of Treasury Securities Caribbean Banking Center 11 As of September, Gross Trading (Purchases and Sales) In All U.S. Securities From The CarribeanTax Havens Countries 12 Month Average 4//4 $871 billion //1 $417 billion Apr- Aug- Dec- Apr-1 Aug-1 Dec-1 Apr-2 Aug-2 Dec-2 Apr-3 Aug-3 Dec-3 Apr-4 Aug-4 Dec-4 1/31/1994 $55.3 billion 8/31/1998 $2 billion 1 Net Purchases of All U.S. Fixed-Income Securities (Line) and Net Purchases of U.S. Equities (Bars) by the Tax Havens 12 Month Rolling Sum 1 9//1987 $8 billion Net Purchases of All U.S. Fixed-Income Securities by the Tax Havens Net Purchases of U.S. Equities Tax Havens Bianco Research, L.L.C November 18, 4 8
9 Leverage In The Bond Market 2 A Leveraged Bull Market Overnight Repo As A % Of The Market Value of The Merrill Domestic Index 2 19% 19% 18% 18% 17% 1 LTCM "Unwind" 17% 1 15% 15% 8 Leverage In The Markets: Bonds Vs Stocks The Carry Trade "Margin Call" Billions Of Dollars Bond Market Leverage Primary Dealer Net Borrowings Billions Of Dollars 1 9% 8% 7% 9. Latest (Oct 4) = 18.8% Overnight Repo = $1.58 trillion Total Merrill Domestic = $8.389 trillion Jul-9 May-91 Mar-92 Jan-93 Nov-93 Sep-94 Jul-95 May-96 Mar-97 Jan-98 Nov-98 Sep-99 Jul- May-1 Mar-2 Jan-3 Nov-3 Sep-4 1-Year T-Note and T-Bond Futures Open Interest As A Percentage Of All Treasury Notes and Bonds Outstanding 1 9% 8% 7% Stock Market Leverag Equity Margin Debt Net Borrowing Net Lending Jul-81 Aug /11/ 12/23/81 7/6/83 1/16/85 8/6/86 2/17/88 8//89 3/13/91 9/23/92 4/6/94 1/18/95 4//97 11/11/98 5/24/ 12/5/1 6/18/3 12/29/ Nov-78 Jul- Mar-82 Nov-83 Jul-85 Mar-87 Nov-88 Jul-9 Mar-92 Nov-93 Jul-95 Mar-97 Nov-98 Jul- Mar-2 Nov-3 Jul-5 Bianco Research, L.L.C November 18, 4 9
10 The Taylor Rule 1 9 Fed Funds Rate vs. Taylor Rule 1 9 The chart to the left shows the so-called Taylor Rule. Stanford Economist John Taylor, who is now the Treasury Undersecretary of Domestic Finance, developed this rule. Percent Difference Taylor Rule Actual Fed Funds Rate Percent The most important component in this measure is potential GDP and potential inflation. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) calculates these statistics. The potential numbers are compared to actual numbers to calculate how much inflation has drifted above or below its preferred level and whether the economy has any spare capacity. The CBO estimates that potential GDP is running 65 basis points above actual GDP (meaning this part of the calculation subtracts 65 basis point to the fed funds target since the economy still has some spare capacity). Inflation has moved higher in recent quarters thanks to rising energy prices. Currently it is now 1 basis point above preferred rate meaning this part of the calculate adds one basis point to the target funds rate because inflation is running slightly higher than the preferred rate. So in total, these two "adjustments" collectively subtract 64 basis point from the fed funds "neutral rate What is neutral? Professor Taylor's original rule used a fixed number of 4. ( for inflation and for real growth). If that number is used, the Taylor rule suggests the funds rate should be 3.3 (4. less the 64 basis points of adjustments described above). Percentage Dec-84 Mar-86 Dec-87 Jun-87 Sep-88 Dec-89 Mar-91 Dec-92 Jun-92 Sep-93 Dec-94 Mar-96 Jun-97 Sep-98 Mar- Dec-99 Mar-1 Jun-2 Sep-3 Dec Percentage However, we found this part of the equation lacking. So, we use a more dynamic method. Instead of using a fixed for inflation, we use the PCE rate plus the expected increase over the next year (Bloomberg estimate). Or, what is the inflation rate expected to be. Currently this number is 2.15%. Likewise instead of using a fixed for real GDP, we use an estimate (from the CBO) of what real GDP is expected to be. Currently this estimate is 3.3. Adding the 2.15% for expected inflation to 3.3 for expected real GDP gives us a neutral rate of 5.47%. Subtracting the 64 basis points of adjustments above give us target rate of 4.8. Bianco Research, L.L.C November 18, 4 1
11 The Yield Curve 3. The Swaps Yield Curves - Spot and 3 Month Forward The Yield Curve The Yield Of The 1-Year Note Less The Yield Of The 2-Year Note 7/29/3 = 2.75% Spot Rate Swaps Curve day moving average Month Forward Swaps Difference.. The Yield Curve 1-Year Less 2-Year... 3-Month Actual Change Month's Carry 3-Months Ago /19/92 11/19/92 7/19/93 3/19/94 11/19/94 7/19/95 3/19/96 11/19/96 7/19/97 3/19/98 11/19/98 7/19/99 3/19/ 11/19/ 7/19/1 3/19/2 11/19/2 7/19/3 3/19/4 11/19/4 6//3 8/5/3 9/1/3 1/16/3 11/21/3 12/27/3 2/1/4 3/8/4 4/13/4 5/19/4 6/24/4 7//4 9/4/4 1/1/4 11/15/4 11/1/2 12/1/2 12/31/2 1//3 3/1/3 3/31/3 4//3 5//3 6/29/3 7/29/3 8/28/3 9/27/3 1/27/3 11/26/3 12/26/3 1/25/4 2/24/4 3/25/4 4/24/4 5/24/4 6/23/4 7/23/4 8/22/4 9/21/4 1/21/4 11//4 Bianco Research, L.L.C November 18, 4 11
12 The Fed - Starting Step 2? Fed Increase Would Nearly Finish First Stage of Return to Normal By GREG IP Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL September 14, 4; Page A2 1 95% 9 85% 8 75% Odds of a Move at the December 14, 4 Meeting (Using the January 5 Fed Funds Futures Contract) Odds of a Move [Implied Rate (-price) less Target Rate] divided by.25 This calculation assumes the targeted federal funds rate is hiked to on November % 9 85% 8 75% 7 October Payroll Report 7 WASHINGTON -- If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates next week as expected, it will be nearing completion of the first stage of what appears to be a two-stage campaign to return interest rates to normal levels. 65% 6 55% 5 More Than 5 = The Market Is Expecting A Hike Of 25 Basis Points 65% 6 55% 5 In the first phase, the Fed is moving to quickly raise the federal-funds rate target from the "emergency" level of, where it stood for a year through June and was the lowest in 46 years. The objective is to push the rate to a still-low, but not excessively so, level -- probably around. The Fed will get there between next week and its December meeting. Next Tuesday, it is likely to raise the target on the federal-funds rate, charged on overnight loans between banks, to 1.75% from 1.5%. In the second stage of tightening monetary policy, the Fed will seek to raise the federal-funds rate to a more neutral level -- probably between and 5% -- where it neither stimulates nor restrains growth. But the pace of its increases will be more subject to new economic data, in particular the impact of oil prices. Markets expect the rate to reach 2.5% by next July. 45% 4 35% 3 25% What Does The Market Expect? The Changing Perceptions Of The Fed Fund Futures Market Actual Target Federal Funds Rate Forecasted Feder (Implied rate fed fund future 45% 4 35% 3 25% /15/ /13/3 7/13/3 8/12/3 9/11/3 9/21/4 9/23/4 9/27/4 9/29/4 1/1/4 1/5/4 1/7/4 1/11/4 1/13/4 1/15/4 1/19/4 1/21/4 1/25/4 1/27/4 1/29/4 11/2/4 11/4/4 11/8/4 11/1/4 11/12/4 11/16/4 1/11/3 11/1/3 12/1/3 1/9/4 2/8/4 3/9/4 4/8/4 5/8/4 6/7/4 7/7/4 8/6/4 9/5/4 1/5/4 11/4/4 12/4/4 1/3/5 2/2/5 3/4/5 4/3/5 5/3/5 6/2/5 7/2/5 11/18/4 Though Fed officials themselves don't refer to their effort as a two-stage campaign, several say it is a reasonable characterization. Some policy makers' public remarks also point in that direction. Sandra Pianalto, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, said Friday: "I am convinced that the current 1.5% funds rate lies below neutral," which she put at to 5%. "Our economy no longer requires the substantial amount of policy accommodation that it did until relatively recently." Bianco Research, L.L.C November 18, 4 12
13 The Euro Long-Term Dollar/Euro 1.6 7/31/19, /31/1992, /31/, /28/1985, /29/1969, /31/1948, Dollar/Euro 9/11/1992, /21/95, //4, Bianco Research, L.L.C November 18, 4 13 Jul-46 Jan-49 Jul-51 Jan-54 Jul-56 Jan-59 Jul-61 Jan-64 Jul-66 Jan-69 Jul-71 Jan-74 Jul-76 Jan-79 Jul-81 Jan-84 Jul-86 Jan-89 Jul-91 Jan-94 Jul-96 Jan-99 Jul-1 Jan-4 Jul /9/98, /6/93, /8/97, /27/, /5/199 9/5/199 5/5/1991 1/5/1992 9/5/1992 5/5/1993 1/5/1994 9/5/1994 5/5/1995 1/5/1996 9/5/1996 5/5/1997 1/5/1998 9/5/1998 5/5/1999 1/5/ 9/5/ 5/5/1 1/5/2 9/5/2 5/5/3 1/5/4 9/5/4 5/5/5
14 Euro Speculation Weekly Euro Futures Weekly Swiss Franc Futures "Backward Adjusted" Continuous Futures "Backward Adjusted" Continuous Futures Hedgers are those that do deal in the cash market and have more than contracts -7 Net Hedgers/Commercials 7 Net Hedgers/Commercials Hedgers are those that do deal in the cash market and have more than contracts - -7 Bianco Research, L.L.C November 18, 4 14 Net Positions (in 's) Net Positions (in 's) Net Large Speculators Speculators are those that do not deal in the cash market and have more than contracts Net Positions (in 's) Weekly Range Net Positions (in 's) Weekly Range 1-1 Net Small Traders 1-1 Net Positions (in 's) 1/5/1999 7/6/1999 1/4/ 7/4/ 1/2/1 7/3/1 1/1/2 7/2/2 12/31/2 7/1/3 12//3 6/29/4 Net Positions (in 's) Net Positions (in 's) Net Positions (in 's) 6 Net Large Speculators - - Net Positions (in 's) Net Positions (in 's) Weekly Range Weekly Range -6 Speculators are those that do not deal in the cash market and have more than Small Traders have less than contracts Net Small Traders /29/1992 6/29/ /28/1993 6/28/ /27/1994 6/27/ /26/1995 6/25/ /24/1996 6/24/ /23/1997 6/23/ /22/1998 6/22/ /21/1999 6// 12/19/ 6/19/1 12/18/1 6/18/2 12/17/2 6/17/3 12/16/3 6/15/4 Net Positions (in 's) Net Positions (in 's) Small Traders have less than contracts
15 Capital Flows And Current Account Deficits 3 2 All U.S. Securities Purchases by Japan and the Yen Does The Current Account Deficit Matter? Current Accout Deficit as a % of GDP (Right Blue Scale) Q Correlation = % -8% The Dollar Index (Thick Red Line The U.S. Current Account Deficit As A Percentage Of GDP (Thin Blue Line) Bars = 12 Month Rolling Sum of All U.S. Securities Purchases (scale left) Line = Yen per $ (scale right) Correlation Since 1979 = -49% Since 199 = -4 1 The Dollar Index (Left Red Scale) - -7% 1/31/1979 1/31/1981 1/31/1983 1/31/1985 1/31/1987 1/31/1989 1/31/1991 1/31/1993 1/31/1995 1/31/1997 1/31/1999 1/31/1 1/31/3 1/31/5 Yen per $ (Scale in Reverse Order) All U.S. Securities Purchases by "Europe Less UK" and the Euro Bars = 12 Month Rolling Sum of All U.S. Securities Purchases (scale left) Line = Euro per $ (scale right) Correlation Since 1979 = -2 Since 199 = , 1, 1, As of September, 4 Holdings of Treasury Securities "Official" Holdings (Central Banks) 1, , 1, 1, Total Notes and Bonds Euro per $ (Scale in Reverse Order) Bills /31/1979 1/31/1981 1/31/1983 1/31/1985 1/31/1987 1/31/1989 1/31/1991 1/31/1993 1/31/1995 1/31/1997 1/31/1999 1/31/1 1/31/3 1/31/5 Apr- Aug- Dec- Apr-1 Aug-1 Dec-1 Apr-2 Aug-2 Dec-2 Apr-3 Aug-3 Dec-3 Apr-4 Aug-4 Dec-4 Bianco Research, L.L.C November 18, 4 15
16 Bianco Research L.L.C North Marcey, Suite 51 Chicago IL 6614 Phone: (847) Fax (847) Arbor Research & Trading, Inc. Hart Road, Suite 26 Barrington IL 61 Phone (847) Fax (847) For more information about the contents/ opinions contained in these reports: President (847) James A. Bianco Strategists/Analysts (847) Howard L. Simons John J. Kosar Greg Blaha Neil Bouhan For subscription/service Information: Arbor Research & Trading, Inc. Director of Sales & Marketing () Fritz Handler Patrick Lovett Peter Forbes For more information about Arbor Research & Trading and its services: Director of Fixed-Income Sales () Daniel Lustig Director of International Sales (847) James L. Perry Arbor Research & Trading (UK) LTD 75 Cannon Street London England EC4N 5BN Phone Fax For more information: Director of Arbor (UK) Neil Tritton Ben Gibson Copyright 4 Bianco Research, L.L.C. All rights reserved. This material is for your private information, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This material should not be redistributed or replicated in any form without prior consent of Bianco Research. The material is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such.
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