Treasury Oversight Committee
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1 Office of the Treasurer & Tax Collector City and County of San Francisco Tajel Shah, Chief Assistant Treasurer Robert L. Shaw, CFA, Chief Investment Officer José Cisneros, Treasurer Treasury Oversight Committee September 14, 2018 City Hall - Room Dr. Carlton B. Goodlett Place San Francisco, CA Telephone: Facsimile:
2 Table of Contents Economic & Market Overview Strategy The Economic Outlook Pooled Fund Review Pool Participants Breakdown July Monthly Report Separate handout 2
3 Key Economic Data 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% Gross Domestic Product -2% 51-3% GDP Year-over-Year Change 49-4% ISM Manufacturing PMI ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI -5% 47 6/14 6/15 6/16 6/17 6/ Producer Price Index vs Consumer Price Index 4.5% Core CPI Core PPI CPI PPI 3.5% 2.5% 1.5% 0.5% -0.5% -1.5% 7/14 7/15 7/16 7/17 7/18 Employment 12% 700K JOLTS & Jobless Claims 8,000K Labor Participation Rate 66% 65% 64% 63% Wage Growth Labor Participation Rate Unemployment Rate 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Wage Growth & Unemployment Rate 600K 500K 400K 300K 200K 100K US Initial Jobless Claims US Job Openings 7,000K 6,000K 5,000K 4,000K 3,000K 2,000K 1,000K 62% 0% 7/08 7/10 7/12 7/14 7/16 7/18 Source: Bloomberg 0K 0K 6/08 6/10 6/12 6/14 6/16 6/18 3
4 Millions Key Economic Data Housing Existing Homes Sales New Home Sales 800K 700K 600K 500K 400K 300K 200K 100K 0 0K 7/08 7/09 7/10 7/11 7/12 7/13 7/14 7/15 7/16 7/17 7/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices 20 Metro Composite San Francisco Area Source: Bloomberg 100 6/08 6/09 6/10 6/11 6/12 6/13 6/14 6/15 6/16 6/17 6/18 4
5 Yield Curve Changes 3.0% 2.8% 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% UST Yields 04/30/ /31/2018 Change 3M M Y Y % 1.4% 3Y Y M 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y UST Yield Curve as of 02/28/2018 UST Yield Curve as of 04/30/2018 UST Yield Curve as of 08/31/2018 Source: Bloomberg 5
6 Policy Issues: Monetary: Strategic Considerations Rate Increases Continuing at one (0.25%) per Quarter; Future Rate Increases At Least one more in 2018: September: +0.25% is Baked-In; and December: +0.25% is at 64% probability. Fiscal: Tax Reform: Corporate. Used mostly for Buybacks; and Individual. Mixed Bag. Overall impact on GDP growth muted. Tariffs: Shifting demand to domestic supplies. 6
7 Strategic Considerations Government Policy Issues: Federal Reserve s Balance Sheet - $4.5 Trillion (Fall 2017): $4.2 Trillion (August 2018); and Decline is in-line with scheduled run-off. 7
8 Portfolio Issues: Strategic Considerations Pool Liquidity Requirements: PUC issued over $550 Million in bonds in August; Use Money Market Sector to Satisfy Liquidity Needs Extending Portfolio Duration: in June 2018; 0.95 in December 2017; 0.88 in August 2017 and 0.68 in December Lengthening Duration is an Outcome, not an Objective. Focus is on: Purchasing Securities that mature on (or slightly before) a known need such as Payroll, Debt Service, Capital Project, etc. 8
9 The Economic Outlook 9
10 The Economic Outlook 10
11 The Economic Outlook 11
12 The Economic Outlook 12
13 Historical Maturity Distribution Comparison Maturity Distribution 50% 40% 30% 20% 7/31/2017 7/31/ % 0% 0 TO 1 MONTHS 1 TO 3 MONTHS 3 TO 6 MONTHS 6 TO 12 MONTHS 12 TO 24 MONTHS 24 TO 36 MONTHS 36 TO 48 MONTHS 48 TO 60 MONTHS Effective Maturity Distribution 50% 40% 30% 20% 7/31/2017 7/31/ % 0% 0 TO 1 MONTHS 1 TO 3 MONTHS 3 TO 6 MONTHS 6 TO 12 MONTHS 12 TO 24 MONTHS 24 TO 36 MONTHS 36 TO 48 MONTHS 48 TO 60 MONTHS Source: SunGard APS2 13
14 Portfolio Comparison 10,500 $ Millions 9,750 9,000 8,250 7,500 6,750 6,000 5,250 4, % 5.5% 0.8% 0.0% 1.4% 6.1% 4.5% 7.6% 17.8% 3.3% 1.8% 2.3% 11.7% 15.4% 3.8% 3.1% 1.1% 7.7% 3.8% 8.7% 17.2% 2.0% 1.0% Supranationals Money Market Funds Medium Term Notes Commercial Paper Banker's Acceptances Negotiable CDs Public Time Deposits State/Local Agencies TLGP 3,750 3,000 2, % 51.9% 54.1% 49.3% Federal Agencies U.S. Treasuries 1, % 7.0% 8.4% 10.0% 7/31/2015 7/31/2016 7/31/2017 7/31/2018 Source: SunGard APS2 14
15 Portfolio Comparison STEP CPN 7% STEP CPN 4% FLOAT 34% FIXED 59% FLOAT 20% FIXED 76% July 31, 2017 July 31, 2018 Source: SunGard APS2 15
16 County Pooled Fund Statistics 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% Name of Fund Portfolio Size* ($ mns) Los Angeles County $32,368.0 Monthly Change In Earned Income Yield 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% City and County of San Francisco SD SB Fresno County Sacramento Los Angeles County Conta Costa Riverside LAIF Sonoma County Orange County Mar 2018 June LAIF 22,548.9 City and County of San Francisco 10,871.1 San Diego County 10,015.4 San Bernardino County 7,022.6 Riverside County 6,846.8 Orange County (ex. Schools) 4,344.9 Sacramento County 3,899.0 Fresno County 3,657.3 Contra Costa County 2,999.5 Sonoma County 2,420.5 * as of June 2018 Weighted Average Maturity (in days) 2.0% LGIP Index 30-Day Gross Yield July 2012 July % 1.0% 0.5% San Francisco Earned Income Yield LGIP Index 30-Day Gross Yield 0.0% Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul 18 Sources: Bloomberg, Sacramento County as of 08/01/
17 Pool Participants Breakdown As of July 31, 2018 Pool Participant Fund Balance Percent of Fund General Fund/Special City Funds/Internal Services Funds $3,798,774, % San Francisco Municipal Transportation Authority 1,142,939, % San Francisco International Airport 1,091,795, % San Francisco Public Utilities Commission 1,069,062, % San Francisco Unified School District 785,746, % Facilities and Capital Projects Funds - General 630,078, % San Francisco General Hospital and Laguna Honda Hospital 303,590, % OCII - Successor Agency former SFRDA 271,142, % Other agencies (incl. Transbay Joint Powers, Trial Courts) 211,609, % Port of San Francisco 204,636, % San Francisco Community College District 178,678, % San Francisco County Transportation Authority 40,700, % Pension and Retiree Health Care Trust Fund 15,866, % Totals $9,744,620, % Source: Best Available Data. Total based on APS2 Pooled Fund Book Balance as of 07/31/2018. Participants Balances are estimates. 17
18 Pool Participants Trends June 30, June 30, 2017 Billions General Fund/Special City Funds/Internal Services Funds San Francisco Public Utilities Commission San Francisco Municipal Transportation Authority San Francisco General Hospital and Laguna Honda Hospital San Francisco International Airport Other Facilities and Capital Projects Funds - General San Francisco Unified School District Source: Cognos Impromptu 18
Treasury Oversight Committee
Office of the Treasurer & Tax Collector City and County of San Francisco Tajel Shah, Chief Assistant Treasurer Robert L. Shaw, CFA, Chief Investment Officer José Cisneros, Treasurer Treasury Oversight
Treasury Oversight Committee
Office of the Treasurer & Tax Collector City and County of San Francisco Tajel Shah, Chief Assistant Treasurer Robert L. Shaw, CFA, Chief Investment Officer José Cisneros, Treasurer Treasury Oversight
Treasury Oversight Committee
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