M&G Optimal Income Fund
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1 M&G Optimal Income Fund Stefan Isaacs, Fund Manager June 2018
2 2
3 M&G Retail Fixed Interest team 12 fund managers and 10 other investment professionals Macro/Emerging markets Investment grade High yield Jim Leaviss Head of Retail Fixed Interest (23) Richard Woolnough Fund Manager (31) Stefan Isaacs Deputy Head of Retail Fixed Interest (16) James Thompson Head of Retail Fixed Interest Fund Manager Assistants (14) Claudia Calich Fund Manager (24) Ben Lord Fund Manager (14) James Tomlins Fund Manager (14) Harry Baptist Fund Manager Assistant (1) Charles de Quinsonas Deputy Fund Manager (7) Matthew Russell Fund Manager (14) Luke Coha US High Yield Specialist (19) Parminder Sroya Fund Manager Assistant (3) Anjulie Rusius Junior Fund Manager (9) Dr. Wolfgang Bauer Fund Manager (4) Lu Yu Junior Fund Manager (10) Daniella Carroll Fund Manager Assistant Ana Gil Investment Director (8) Laura Frost Investment Director (16) Pierre Chartres Investment Director (12) Nicolo Carpaneda Investment Director (13) Pilar Arroyo Investment Specialist (6) Carlo Putti Investment Specialist (3) Mario Eisenegger Investment Specialist (3) 3 Source: M&G, 31 May 2018.( ) = years of experience.*also Head of Retail Fixed Interest Investment Specialist team
4 Market-leading credit analyst teams M&G in London Rob Marshall Head of Public Credit Research Restructuring Financials & Sovereigns Asset-backed Industrials David Covey(22) Head of Financials Alex Giles (21) Mark Robinson (9) Jaimin Shah (13) Tolani Benson (8) Elsa Dargent (8) Hannah Godwin (7) Alexander Radon (7) Matthew O Sullivan(13) Anuj Babber (17) Co-Heads of ABS Claire Schoeman (18) Josephine Meertens (17) Tim Morris (10) James O Prey (14) Michael Coady (10) Othman Eli Iraki (10) Eoin O Shaughnessy (10) James Crole (4) Rob Marshall (22) Simon Duff (20) Rachita Patel (16) Orlando Finzi (22) Vladimir Jovkovic (13) Stephen Wilson-Smith (27) Michael Posnansky (16) Miriam Hehir (24) Saul Casadio (10) Chris Money (12) Yin Wu (11) Yadeesh Moorthy (5) Chris Saysell (25) Paul Taylor (21) John Page (21) Heads of Fixed Income Restructuring Andrew Amos (18) Riccardo Cumerlato (17) Martin Limpenny (16) Rafael Cerezo (16) Nick Karelis (16) Richard Booth (15) Tim Harrison (11) Sam Chapman (10) Jay Mankoo (10) Andy Bishop (10) Mustafa van Hien (9) Michael Walker (6) Biliana Sourlekova (5) Daniela Cociorba (4) Luca Lussana (2) Jeanot Dawson (2) 4 Source: M&G, 31 May 2018( ) = years of experience
5 Are we due a recession? Cumulative GDP growth post-recessions 200 GDP growth (indexed to 100) Current Quarters since trough Past performance is not a guide to future performance 5 Source: Credit Suisse, Haver Analytics, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, NBER as at 24 April to present cumulative nominal GDP since trough indexed to 100
6 Monetary policy worked Unemployment rate (YoY % change) 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% US UK Eurozone (rhs) 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6 Source: Bloomberg, May 2018 (Latest data available)
7 Where s wage growth going? 4.5% recession 25% Wages & salaries 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 20% 15% 10% 5% Firms planning to raise wages 1.0% 0% ECI: wages & salaries, YoY % change, private industry workers (lhs) NFIB: % of firms planning to raise worker compensation (9 month lead, rhs) 7 Source: M&G, Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank research, 31 March 2018 (latest data available)
8 Government bond yields still close to historically low levels 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% 10y Treasury yield (%) 10y gilt yield (%) 10y bund yield (%) 8 Source: Bloomberg, 31 May 2018
9 What past experience tells us about corporate bond spreads Global IG corporate bond index Credit crisis Eurozone debt crisis Extreme value OAS spread Tech bubble Oil bubble Great value Good value Fair value Expensive 9 Source: M&G, Bloomberg, BofA Merrill Lynch indices, 31 May 2018
10 Areas we liked in 2017 FINANCIALS LONG DATED USD TELCOMMUNICATION BONDS HYBRIDS 4 areas we liked EUROZONE PERIPHERALS GOVERNMENT BONDS 10 Source: M&G, 2017
11 Areas we are looking at Short dated US treasury USD IG credit Equity 11 Source: M&G, 2018
12 Short dated US Treasuries now looking more attractive 5-yr US Treasury yield (%) 10-yr US Treasury yield (%) 6 % 6 % 5 % 5 % 4 % 4 % 3 % 3 % 2 % 2 % 1 % 1 % 0 % 0 % 12 Source: M&G, Bloomberg, 31 May 2018
13 USD IG corporate bonds versus EUR IG corporate bonds USD IG corporate spreads EUR IG corporate spreads Spread (bps) Source: M&G, Bloomberg Bank of America Merrill Lynch, 15 June 2018
14 Euro coco bonds versus bank equity performance Total return rebased to 100 (01/01/2017) EUR IG coco bonds Euro STOXX banks Source: Bloomberg, 15 June 2018
15 Agenda Introduction Macro and credit views Fund positioning 15
16 Duration contributions M&G Optimal Income Fund Duration (years) Total GBP EUR USD Other JPY -2.0 Actively managing duration across markets 16 Source: M&G, 31 May Please note, portfolio data is based on internal sources, is unaudited and may differ from information as shown in the Monthly Fund Review
17 Asset allocation over time M&G Optimal Income Fund 40% 30% neutral Govt bonds (and cash) 80% 60% IG corporate 20% 10% 0% 40% 20% 0% neutral HY corporate 50% 25% 40% neutral 20% max 30% 15% 20% 10% 10% 5% 0% 0% Equity 17 Source: M&G, 31 May Please note, portfolio data is based on internal sources, is unaudited and may differ from information as shown in the Monthly Fund Review
18 Duration vs credit risk End End 2010 Duration, years AAA A A End 2014 Start 2012 A BBB BB B CCC Credit risk = current positioning = previous months positioning Note: equity is considered with a CCC rating 18 Source: M&G from 31 December 2006 to 31 May 2018
19 Performance in Sterling M&G Optimal Income Fund to to to to to M&G Optimal Income Fund 1.9% 7.7% 1.7% 2.2% 6.0% IA Strategic Bond sector 0.4% 8.4% 0.6% 4.6% 4.4% Past performance is not a guide to future performance 19 Source: Morningstar, Inc., Investment Association database, 31 May 2018, Sterling I share class, net income reinvested, price to price
20 Fund manager has outperformed the major bond sectors through different market conditions M&G Optimal Income Fund Total return (8/12/2006 = 100) % 61.6% 69.5% 76.7% 57.4% M&G Optimal Income Fund IA Corporate Bond sector avg IA UK Gilts sector avg IA High Yield sector avg IA Strategic Bond sector avg Past performance is not a guide to future performance 20 Source: Morningstar, Inc., UK database, 31 May 2018, sterling I share class, income reinvested, price to price.
21 21 The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause fund prices to fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the original amount invested. For financial advisers only. Not for onward distribution. No other persons should rely on any information contained within. This financial promotion is issued by M&G Securities Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK and provides ISAs and other investment products. The company s registered office is Laurence Pountney Hill, London EC4R 0HH. Registered in England No
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