Bond markets: How to deal with rising inflation and interest rates

Transcription

1 Bond markets: How to deal with rising inflation and interest rates 27 June 2017 Richard Macey, Director of Charities

2 Indexed to 100 Total return Equities, Bonds, Cash & Inflation 10 years to 31 March Charifund FTSE All Share Index Inflation (RPI) Cash Charibond FTSE Gilts All Stocks Cash has significantly underperformed equities and inflation 2 Source: M&G Statistics, Morningstar Inc., Office for National Statistics, 31 March Based in sterling, income reinvested, price to price, rebased to 100 at 31 March 2007.

3 Real yield* Strategic assessment Valuation framework: the starting point Sample of assets, showing real yield against an assessment of neutrality 13% 11% 9% 7% 5% 3% 1% -1% -3% Neutrality Above neutrality Cheap? Below neutrality Expensive? Safer assets yielding well below normal negative real returns! 3 Source: M&G, Datastream, 1 April *Real yield for equity is defined as an inflation-adjusted inverted p/e ratio, using forward consensus data

4 Charibond Fund manager objective: To provide an actively managed fund of gilt-edged and other fixed interest stocks and deposits designed to produce a high income while preserving capital values On 31 March 2017, the forward distribution yield was 3.6% (based on an estimated annual distribution rate of 4.6p for 2017). 31 March March 2017 Corporate bonds 50.0% 2Other 3.2% Cash 2.3% Governme nt bonds 44.5% Corporate bonds 46.0% Cash 0.4% Government bonds 53.6% 4 Source: M&G, 31 March 2017

5 Charibond Asset distribution BBB 17.5% BB 1.1% Cash 0.4% AAA 2.1% Average credit quality of Charibond: A+ Average credit quality of FTSE UK Gilts index: AA Portfolio duration of Charibond: 7.3 years A 21.6% Duration of FTSE All-Stocks Gilt Index: 11.5 years AA 57.3% 5 Source: M&G, Datastream, 31 March *Note; these are not rated by independent agencies, but are rated as equivalent to investment grade by our in-house analysts

6 Per annum Charibond Annual compound growth rates Total returns 12% 10% % 6% % 2% % One year Three years Five years Ten years Twenty years Since inception Sept 1976 Charibond FTSE All-Stocks Index ML Non-Gilts All-Stocks Index Retail Prices Index * 6 Source: M&G, income reinvested, price to price. Figures shown since inception (September 1976) to 31 March *Note; ML Non-Gilts Index not in existence 20 years ago

7 Rate sensitivity Index linked not always the answer A M&G UK Inflation Linked Corporate Bond Fund C M&G Short Dated Corporate Bond Fund E IA UK Index Linked Gilts B M&G Index Linked Bond Fund D FTSE UK Gilts All Stocks Index 7 Source: Trustnet /Financial Express as at 19 May Performance from 01 September 2016 to 18 May 2017.

8 Key fund information M&G Short Dated Corporate Bond Fund Low risk portfolio designed to protect against higher interest rates Provides exposure to high quality credit Draws on M&G s credit research expertise and resources Minimises overall interest rate risk (duration range 0-3 years) 8 Source: M&G, 2015

9 Fund positioning M&G Short Dated Corporate Bond Fund Credit split* fund, % Credit exposure by geography* fund,% AAA % 30% AA % 14.3 A BBB % 0% US UK Europe - core FRN exposure* fund, % 6.9 Europe - peripheral 3.9 Europe - other 1.4 Other BB 2.4 8% 6.8 B CCC & below % 4% 2% 0% GBP USD EUR Financial Industrial 9 Source: M&G, 31 March *Includes derivative positions. Please note, portfolio data is based on internal sources, is unaudited and may differ from information as shown in the Monthly Fund Review

10 Fund positioning summary M&G UK Inflation Linked Corporate Bond Fund Key portfolio themes Credit rating breakdown Duration Low interest rate duration: 0.6 years AAA 0.0% Asset allocation The core of the fund is invested in index-linked credit AA A 19.2% 16.4% Credit risk We find the best risk/reward profile in BBB credit BBB BB 4.8% 58.0% B 0.3% CCC & below 0.0% Cash 2.5% 10 Source: M&G, 30 April Please note, portfolio data is based on internal sources, is unaudited and may differ from information as shown in the Monthly Fund Review

11 Some issuers of UK inflation-linked corporate bonds 11 Source: M&G, June 2014

12 Conclusions Bonds have enjoyed a 30-year bull-run : this will not continue Rising inflation and interest rates will cause capital erosion: Risk-free return now Return-free risk! Allocating to bonds still plays a vital role in diversifying your portfolio, but interest rate risk should be considered You can reduce your sensitivity to rising inflation and rates, but the trade-off will be lower income streams 12

13 The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause fund prices to fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the original amount invested. This Financial Promotion is issued by M&G Securities Limited which has been appointed as the fund manager for Charibond and Charifund. M&G Securities Limited is registered in England No The company s registered office is Laurence Pountney Hill, London EC4R 0HH. M&G Securities Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK. Charibond s charity registered number is , and Charifund s charity registered number is