International Cost Estimating and Analysis Association Testable Topics List CCEA

Transcription

1 International Cost Estimating and Association Testable Topics List CCEA Testable Topics List

2 The Testable Topics List Cost Estimating Basics COST ESTIMATING BASICS Budgeting, Investment, and Planning of Alternatives (AoA) Economic Cost Benefits Business Contracting and Project Management Design and Trade-Off Decisions Life Cycle Cost Estimate (LCCE) Independent Cost Estimate (ICE) Budget Estimate Proposal Estimate Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) Economic (EA) of Alternatives (AoA) Activity-Based Costing (ABC) Price-Based Acquisition estimates s of Cost Estimating Requirements for Cost Estimating Limitations of Cost Estimating Types of Cost Estimates Cost Estimating Inputs and Products SORAP (Source of Repair) Analyses Logistics Support (LSA) Performance-Based Logistics (PBL) Requirements Documents Capabilities Development Document (CDD) Technical Baseline Description Technical Baseline Description Proposals Request for Information (RFI) Estimate Documentation Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) Development WBS and Cost Element Structure (CES) Program/System Baseline Definition Data Collection, Normalization, and Cost Element Methodology Estimate Development and Validation Regression International Cost Estimating and Association Page 2

3 COST ESTIMATING BASICS Risk Time Phasing Cross-Checks Results and Report Generation Estimate Reconciliation Informal Reviews Formal Reviews Acquisition Milestone decisions Contracting Costing Techniques COSTING TECHNIQUES Costing Techniques Analogy Method Scaling/Adjustment Advantages and Disadvantages Quantification of Uncertainty Parametric Build-Up Life Cycle Cost Elements Adequacy of program definition Availability of data Top-Down vs. Bottom-Up Approaches Cost Element Structure (CES) Calibration Comparison of Techniques Schedule Estimating and Time Phasing Adjusting Analogies International Cost Estimating and Association Page 3

4 Parametric Estimating Parametric Estimating Parametric Estimating Concepts Slope Parametric Estimating Process Cost Driver Identification Cost Drivers Proxy Variables Dummy Variables Cost Estimating Relationship (CER) Development Rates, Factors, and Ratios Regression Calibration Parametric Model Development Validation of Parametric Inputs Cost Response Curves (CRCs) Data Collection and Normalization Data Collection and Normalization Data Collection Process Data Collection Techniques Data Collection Issues Contextual Completeness Availability Accessibility Validity Timeliness Sampling / Measurement Error Data Normalization Cost Units Inflation Overhead Changes Non-Recurring vs. Recurring Cost Direct vs. Indirect Cost Direct Labor Material Costs Overheads Fringe International Cost Estimating and Association Page 4

5 Data Collection and Normalization General and Administrative (G&A) Profit/Fee Cost Accounting Systems and Standards Index/Inflation Index/Inflation Inflation and Cost Estimating Inflation Concepts and Definitions Inflation and Escalation Escalation vs. Discounting Index Numbers Current-Year dollars Constant-Year dollars Then-Year (budget-year) dollars Base-Year dollars Inflation Indices Raw indices Composite Indices Weighted Average Inflation Procedures Index Tables Shifting Base Year of tables Inflation Procedure Mnemonic CY$ to CY$ CY$ to TY$ TY$ to CY$ TY$ to TY$ Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Commercial Indices Time Phasing and Inflation International Cost Estimating and Association Page 5

6 Basic Data Principles Basic Data Principles Types of data Quantitative Univariate Bivariate Multivariate Time Series Qualitative Univariate Visual Display of Data Histograms Box plots Stem-and-leaf plots Pie charts Univariate Descriptive Statistics Measures of Central Tendency Mean Median Mode Measures of Dispersion Range Variance Standard Deviation Coefficient of Variation (CV) Univariate Inferential Statistics t test for means Chi-Square and K-S tests for distribution Bivariate Visual Display of Data Scatter plots Variables Cost vs. time Cost vs. parameter Cost vs. cost Function types Data Validation Outliers Other types of analysis Time series analysis Non-parametric analysis Systems of simultaneous equations International Cost Estimating and Association Page 6

7 Learning Curve Learning Curve Learning Curve Theory Learning Curve Concepts Slope Theoretical First Unit (T1) 100th Unit Cost??? Equation Learning Curve Data Unit Cost Data Cumulative Cost Data Cumulative Average Cost Data Unit with Rate Lot Data Cumulative Average Learning Curve Theory (CUMAV) Unit Learning Curve Theory (ULC) Lot Data and Lot Midpoints (LMP) Learning Curve Choosing a Learning Curve Theory Fitting a Learning Curve Learning Curves for New Programs Learning Curves During the First Few Units Factors Affecting Slope Topics Production Rate Effects Learn-rate curves Fixed cost curves Production Break Effects Break Point Andelohr New Work Effects Quantity As an Independent Variable (QAIV) Prototypes and Step-Up/Step-Down Factors International Cost Estimating and Association Page 7

8 Regression Regression Linear Relationships Correlation Causation Types of Models General Linear Model Linear Regression Assumptions for Linear Regression Models Finding the Equation Residual Cook's Distance Measure (Identify Influential Observations) Goodness of Fit of Variance (ANOVA) SSR SSE SST Uncertainty Standard Error Coefficient of Variation (CV) Statistical Significance Significance Level t statistic F statistic Mean Square Error (s-squared or MSE) Explained Variation R-squared Confidence Intervals Prediction Intervals Point Estimation Small Sample Size Considerations in Regression Non-linear Models Multivariate Regression Least Squares Method Adjusted R-squared Multicollinearity Signs of Multicollinearity Tests for Multicollinearity Selecting the Best Model Selecting Within Type International Cost Estimating and Association Page 8

9 Regression Selecting Across Type Generalized Least Squares Cost Risk Cost Risk Risk Definitions Risk Process Risk and Uncertainty Relationship between Risk and Cash Flow Relationship between Risk and Profit Risk Management Structure Risk Assessment Risk and Sensitivity Risk Handling Risk Sources and Responsibilities Cost Growth Cost Growth Causes Cost Growth Allowances Types of Cost Risk Supportability Risk Cost Estimating Risk Schedule/Technical Risk Historical Cost Growth Variations Risk Distributions w/impacts Triangles, Weibull,lognormals, and normals Risk vs. Sensitivity Independence and Cost Realism Risk and EVM Predicting EAC Methods and Techniques Bottom-up Approach Top Down Approach Schedule Risk Monte Carlo/Hyperlatin Cube Decision Tree Size Adjustments Risk Adjusted Net Present Value International Cost Estimating and Association Page 9

10 Cost Risk Adjusting for Total Project Risk Payback Approach Simulation Sensitivity Risk Adjusted Discount Rate Approach Functional, Relational, and Injected Correlation Risk Model Architecture Decision Process and Modeling Applying uncertainty to cost elements Selecting Distributions Inputs Scoring/Parameters Inputs Dollar Basis/Forecasting Structure Organization Coverage and Partition Assigning Cost to Risk Probability and Statistics Probability and Statistics Sampling Techniques Hypothesis Testing Probability Density Functions Probability Theory Expectation of a Random Variable Standard Deviation of a Random Variable Covariance and Correlation of a Random Variable Mean, Median, Mode, Range Cumulative Distribution Function Types of Distributions Normal Student T Lognormal Chi Square F Triangular Uniform Beta Gamma International Cost Estimating and Association Page 10

11 Probability and Statistics Weibull Exponential Other Common Distributions Discrete Distributions Bernoulli Binomial Poisson Geometric Relationships between Distributions Hypothesis Testing Null Hypothesis and Alternative Hypothesis One-Tail vs. Two-Tail Tests Statistical Significance Type I and Type II Errors Test Statistic Critical Value P-Values Confidence Intervals Statistical Tests t test One-sample Two-sample Chi Square test F test k-sample test for means Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness of fit Related Topics Probability Simulation Discrete-Event Time Series Moving Average Weighted Moving Average Exponential Smoothing International Cost Estimating and Association Page 11

12 Manufacturing Cost Estimating Manufacturing Cost Estimating Absorption Costing Burden Cost Center Differential Cost Fixed Cost Forward Pricing Incremental Cost Job Order Costing Marginal Cost Performance Factors Process Costing Variable Cost Composite Labor Rates Non-Recurring Tooling Test Equipment Facilities Production Set-Up Recurring Labor Material Overhead / Indirect / Capital Expenditures Overhead Fringe General and Administrative (G&A) Cost of Money (COM) Fee Labor Estimating Time Standards Personal Fatigue & Delay Support Labor Labor Concerns Learning Curve Production Breaks Green Labor Process Improvements Equipment Utilization Rate Make or Buy International Cost Estimating and Association Page 12

13 Manufacturing Cost Estimating Rates Estimating Material Estimating Material Costs Raw Material Purchased Parts Subcontractor Costs Types of Material Software Cost Estimating Software Cost Estimating Software Development Process Comparison to Hardware Cost Drivers Size Source Lines Of Code (SLOC) (New, Modified, Re-used, auto-generated) Code Reuse and Equivalent SLOC (ESLOC) Equivalent Source Lines of Code (ESLOC) SLOC Growth How to capture effort on a project Productivity The elements of a complete development effort (SM, Requirements, Cost Unit Test, CSCI to CSCI test and integration, QM QA, Overall system integration and test, etc) Function Points Object Points Complexity Capability Schedule (Dr. Boehm's basic predicting equations) SW Maintenance Industry Rules of Thumb Life Cycle Methodologies Waterfall Incremental Evolutionary Spiral Estimating Techniques Applied to Software Industry Standards/Rules of Thumb International Cost Estimating and Association Page 13

14 Economic Economic Discounted Dollars Economic Life Opportunity Cost Present Value of Money Time Value of Money Breakeven Cost-Benefit Discounting and Capital Budgeting Definition and Purpose Economic Life Cycle Period of Type of Dollars Constant Dollars Current Dollars Base Year Costs LCC Opportunity costs Status Quo phase-out costs Sunk costs Wash costs Benefits Compare and Rank Alternatives Time Phasing Base year v. Current year Compound V. composite rates Inflation Discounting Present Value Real Discount Rates Nominal Discount Rates Discount Factors (mid-year and end-of-year) Comparison Techniques Net Present Value (NPV) Uniform Annual Cost (UAC) Benefit/Cost Ratio (B/CR) Savings/Investment Ratio (SIR) Payback Period Return on Investment (ROI) Principles of Economic (EA) International Cost Estimating and Association Page 14

15 Economic Benefit to Investment Ratio (BIR) Break-Even Test Sensitivity of Alternative Rankings Contract Pricing Contract Pricing Allowable Costs Ceiling Price Fee Not-to-Exceed Cost Profit Revenue Contract End Items Fixed Price Firm Fixed Price (FFP) Fixed Price Incentive (FPI) Firm and Successive Targets Ceiling Price Point of Total Assumption (PTA) Share Ratios Cost Plus Cost Plus Award Fee (CPAF) Cost Plus Incentive Fee (CPIF) Minimum and maximum fee Cost Plus Fixed Fee (CPFF) Earned Value Management Earned Value Management EVMS Purpose and Benefits EVM Components Integrated Baseline Resource-Loaded Schedule = Time-Phased Budget Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) International Cost Estimating and Association Page 15

16 (BCWS) (BCWP) Earned Value Management Organizational Breakdown Structure (OBS) Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB) Management Reserve (MR) Contract Budget Base (CBB) Earned Value Data Elements Planned Value (PV) = Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled Earned Value (EV) = Budgeted Cost of Work Performed Actual Cost (AC) = Actual Cost of Work Performed (ACWP) Budget At Complete (BAC) Latest Revised Estimate (LRE) Cost Variance (CV) Schedule Variance (SV) Estimate At Complete (EAC) Variance At Complete (VAC) To-complete Cost Performance Index (TCPI) Cost Management Cost Management Design-to-Cost Design of Experiment Measures of Effectiveness Cost-Effectiveness Cost-Performance Tradeoff Objectives of Cost Management Total Ownership Cost (TOC) Life Cycle Costing Linked Indirect Costs TOC Reduction and Cost Management Cost As an Independent Variable (CAIV) CAIV Definition Cost/Performance Trades Linkage Exchange Rate Dominance Bang for the buck Role of Cost Estimating International Cost Estimating and Association Page 16

17 Cost Management Performance Estimating Relationships (PERs) Target Costing Evolution of Target Costing Target Costing Definition Price led Customer focused Design centered Cross functional Life-cycle oriented Value-chain based Target Costing vs. CAIV Target Costing Tools Benefits of Target Costing Activity Based Costing (ABC) ABC Model Resources Activities Outputs (Cost Objects) ABC and Activity-Based Management (ABM) International Cost Estimating and Association Page 17