Inclusionary Housing Technical Advisory Committee: First Meeting. May 24, 2016

Transcription

1 Inclusionary Housing Technical Advisory Committee: First Meeting May 24, 2016

2 Tonight's Agenda Call to order and Roll Call Introduction of the Committee members and staff Election of Committee Chair Review of Committee Formation Legislation Discussion of Potential Study Approaches Public Comment 2

3 Legislation Forming the Committee and Establishing the Feasibility Study New inclusionary requirements Grandfathering Feasibility Study Technical Advisory Committee 3

4 Feasibility Study To be conducted every three years by the Controller, with the assistance of consultants. Can be done more often if economic conditions warrant. First report due July 31, Shall include sensitivity analysis of economic parameters, such as: Interest rates Capitalization rates Rates of return on equity Land prices Construction costs Project scale Local, state, and federal housing finance programs Public-private development agreements 4

5 Technical Advisory Committee Eight members, four appointed by the Mayor and 4 by the Board of Supervisors. Staffed by the Controller's Office. Required to meet at least once every four months. Tasked with holding technical workshops to evaluate the feasibility of various on-site and off-site alternatives, such as project types, inclusionary percentages, resident income levels, and variations by neighborhood. 5

6 Potential Project Approach 3 or 4 more TAC meetings this summer. 3 Consultants secured to conduct 3 independent strands of work. Century Urban: build on their previous pro-forma analysis of inclusionary fees for the city. Street Level Advisors (Rick Jacobus): facilitate TAC meetings, provide research on good practices from other cities. Blue Sky Consulting: use pro-forma results to model impacts of fee options on citywide affordable housing resources and housing production. 6

7 High-Level Project Plan Event Meeting 1 Century Urban define remaining questions refresh assumptions prepare presentation Meeting 2: proforma modeling describe report follow-up research Meeting 3: review preliminary results present follow-up research Meeting 4: if necessary present follow-up research Meeting 5: final report final presentation Rick Jacobus facilitation define financial scenarios follow-up research facilitation facilitation facilitation Blue Sky Model development take inputs preliminary results refine model present refined model final presentation 7

8 Pro-Forma Analysis: Century Urban Century Urban is a San Francisco LBE that has significant experience helping public and private clients understand the impact of affordable housing requirements. Most recently conducted Preliminary Field Research & Scenario Analysis of higher inclusionary requirements in early 2016 for the Mayor's Office. Lined up to present their research at the next TAC meeting. Prepared to conduct further research, at the group's direction, to confirm, refine, and extend that analysis, including potential considerations of alternative project types and scales, neighborhoods, percentages, or income levels. 8

9 Facilitation and Good-Practices Review: Street Level Advisors Street Level Advisors Principal Rick Jacobus has substantial experience advising cities with inclusionary housing ordinances, including in Seattle, Minneapolis, Denver, and Atlanta. Rick will prepare for the TAC a review of some good practices emerging from this work and the experience of other cities. He will also facilitate the TAC meetings with the other consultants. 9

10 Estimating How New Fees Affect Housing Production: Blue Sky Consulting Analysis and discussion of pro-formas is helpful to focus discussion on key economic variables, and how a proposed fee structure affects the feasibility of a particular prototype. Given that every development site is different, pro-formas offers a limited ability to estimate how a proposed fee will affect overall production of affordable and market-rate housing. Blue Sky Consulting has proposed an approach that would analyze the sensitivity of recent housing production in the city to changes in developer returns, and using that experience to project future housing production under different fee assumptions. The outcomes of the Century Urban pro-formas would feed into Blue Sky's models. This approach is untested, and may not yield results that are helpful for policy development. However, we think the approach is worth pursuing, and the TAC would appreciate considering the results. 10

11 Concluding Report The Controller's Office plan to synthesize the consultants' work and prepare a final report for the Board of Supervisors by July 31, per the legislation. We will also manage the consultants, provide support for the TAC, and data and research support to the consultants. 11

12 Questions? 12