Allocating pre production costs in multi year enterprises

Transcription

1 Allocating pre production costs in multi year enterprises Regional Training Course on Agricultural Cost of Production Statistics November 2016, Daejeon, Republic of Korea 1 What are pre production costs? Pre production costs are incurred at least one year in advance of the time period when the commodity is actually produced and can be sold on the market They are also called establishment or installation costs AEAA Handbook definition: The pre productive period begins with the first expense associated with establishing the crop enterprise and ends in the crop year just before the crop yields a substantial percent of its expected mature yield (usually 70 80%) Examples: o Establishment of a new coffee plantation: preparation of the soil, buying and planting the coffee trees, expenses related to tree nursery, etc. o Establishment of a new orchard for the production of flowers, etc.

2 2 Why pre production costs should be allocated? To obtain relevant and comparable cost and revenue estimates, preproduction expenses need to be allocated to the year or years in which production takes place For production which are entirely harvested in a single year (ex: annual crops), all the pre production costs are allocated to this production year When production is distributed over several years (ex: plantations, orchards, perennial crops), the question becomes more complex? Pre production period (H) Production period (N H) N 3 Concepts and definitions (1/2) What costs should be allocated? o All cost items (direct, indirect, labour, land, capital) o They should be estimated using the same methodologies as those described in this training (and in the Manual) Secondary products: the revenues and costs associated with the selling of secondary products during the pre productive years (ex: banana production on cacao plantations) should be added/deducted to/from preproduction costs The production of the commodity before it reaches its mature yield should also be accounted for and valued

3 3 Concepts and definitions (2/2) When there is a substantial lag between the moment costs are incurred and production effectively takes place: => it is important adjust nominal costs for inflation Pre production costs = the net returns during the pre productive years adjusted to the end of the pre productive period: PPC o Rt is the difference between revenues and costs in year t (= net returns, usually negative during the preproduction period) o H is the length in years of the pre productive period o iis the annual inflation rate H 1 i t 1 H t R t 4 The traditional budgeting method (1/2) Accumulated costs (capital and non capital) are allocated to the productive years using a linear depreciation schedule: PPC SV D N H D is the portion of the establishment costs that will be charged against each productive year N H is the length in years of the productive period (N is the total life span of the enterprise) SV is the value of the enterprise, excluding land, at the end of its productive cycle (salvage value)

4 4 The traditional budgeting method (2/2) Time adjustments: o PPC and SV should be expressed in the prices referring to the last preproductive year o The amounts charged to each production year should be expressed in current prices: D t t D 1 i Advantages: o Easy to implement and understandable o Similar to what is usually done to estimate capital depreciation Drawbacks: o Is the linear depreciation schedule a realistic/appropriate one? o The determination of SV is not easy 5 The cost recovery (or annuity) approach (1/3) The accumulated total is amortized over the production period using an annuity formula The annual amount to be charged against each production year (A) is such that: PPC SV N H t 1 r t H 1 1 r N A Net PPC at end of the preproduction period prices ( present ) Present value of the amount to be charged It follows that: A 1 r 1 r H N NetPPC

5 5 The cost recovery (or annuity) approach (2/3) Time adjustments: the amounts A charged to each production year need to be adjusted for inflation only if r is a real interest rate (i.e. excluding inflation) Advantages: o It is consistent with business accounting practices o It is economically founded Limitations: o Determining SV (an option could be 0) o Sensitivity to the choice of the interest rate r 5 The cost recovery (or annuity) approach (3/3) Example: installation costs of a new coffee plantation in Colombia Assumptions o H = 3 (marginal production starts at year 2, neglected here) o N H = 7 (variable depending on production type) o r (nominal interest rate) = 15% o SV = 0 (excluding the value of land, the remaining is biomass) o PPC = COL per hectare Results: o Net PPC = per hectare (SV is 0) o A = per hectare (~ 720 USD) > This amount is charged against the revenues of each production year

6 6 The current cost approach (1/2) Adapted to situations where the farm is at the production equilibrium or steady state, i.e. having reached the maximum of its potential yield Allocated PPCs are determined as a share of current costs (CC) This share is closely related to the steady state replacement rate of the assets, for examples: o 5% of a herd may need to be replaced annually to maintain stable the number of heads o 10% of a plantation may have to be renewed each year to maintain a stable average plantation age (and therefore yield) 6 The current cost approach (2/2) The calculation are done in 4 steps: Step 1: determine the ratio r = PPC/CC (assumed to be fixed for a given time period under the assumption of fixed technology) o CC = change in asset value + operating costs associated with these assets o This operation has to be done with data spanning a sufficiently large time period (e.g. average of 3 years) to reduce the risk that outlier observations might distort the ratio Step 2: apply r to the estimated annual current costs CC(t) Step 3: r.cc(t) is charged against production for the year t

7 7 Market value approach Similar to the CC method, with the PPC estimated using opportunity costs (market values) instead of actual costs: o PPC are estimated as the foregone revenues from the selling of the assets (livestock, trees, etc.) instead of holding them o For example, market prices for replacement animals are used to estimate PPC for a livestock farm, as opposed to building up the actual costs associated with livestock breeding herd Advantage: ease of implementation; particularly adapted for livestock pre production expenses Drawbacks: o Markets might not exist or may be too thin, in which case the current cost method may be used o Market valuations might be biased towards future earnings and not historical costs 8 Yield or production based allocation (1/3) It is an allocation rule based on a non linear depreciation schedule PPC calculation: o Establishment expenses comprise capital as well as variable costs o Production occurring during the pre production period for the main commodity are not deducted from PPC The amount to charge against each production year is proportional to the share of current production in the total expected production for the productive years: Q t D t PPC. N Q t t H 1

8 8 Yield or production based allocation (2/3) Example: N=10, H=3, PPC=500 Years Production shares (%) Allocated PPC (D) Preproduction years Production years Yield or production based allocation (3/3) Advantages: o Easy to implement and intuitive o Assumes a non linear depreciation schedule, reflective of the farm s production cycle Drawbacks: o It is dependent on the schedule assumed for yields, which varies necessarily across varieties, regions, etc. o It has to be refined to include revenues and costs associated with secondary commodities

9 9 References AAEA Task Force on Commodity Costs and Returns (2000). Commodity Costs and Returns Estimation Handbook. United States Department of Agriculture: Ames, Iowa, USA. Global Strategy to Improve Agricultural and Rural Statistics (2016), Handbook on Agricultural Cost of Production Statistics, Handbook and Guidelines, pp FAO: Rome.