TERMS OF REFERENCE UNICEF Office for the Easter Caribbean Area

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1 TERMS OF REFERENCE UNICEF Office for the Easter Caribbean Area Position Budget Analysis for Investments in Children and Fiscal Space Analysis for Social Protection Floor in Saint Lucia Duration Start Date: 01 December 2013 End Date: 30 June 2014 Grade Duty Station Supervision Programme Component A. Background: L4 International St. Lucia Social and Economic Policy Specialist Evidence-based advocacy and capacity building for child and gender-sensitive social policy and programme development with a strong equity focus Article 4 of the Convention on the Rights of the Child provides for the obligation of States to invest the appropriate resources for guaranteeing that all the rights safeguarded by the convention are fulfilled to the maximum extent of their available resources. The safeguarding of these rights require States to engage in budgeting processes that allocate the necessary amount of resources to provide access to social and protection services for all children in order for them to be able to reach their full potential. States at different levels of development, or facing different economic circumstances, may thus be able to ensure different levels of implementation of policies that help fulfill children s rights according to the principle of progressive realization of rights. There is ample evidence 1 that seeks to highlight the linkages between policy development and child rights compliance i.e., about investing resources to ensure children s right to health, education, and protection from violence, exploitation, and discrimination, social protection and socioeconomic progress for society at large. In addition to the ethical imperative in recognizing children s rights, there are complementary links between social and economic policy and positive implications of social investment on children for economic development and productivity gains in any country. Therefore, well-articulated and gender responsive - economic and social policy decisions in general and for children in particular could play a crucial role in promoting gender equality, equity, social justice and facilitate economic growth and poverty reduction. B. The Country Context: Saint Lucia St. Lucia is a Small-Island Developing State (SIDS) in the Eastern Caribbean region with a population of 174,000. St. Lucia has a relatively young population the total number of children under 18 is 55,000, almost a third of total population, out of it 15,000 are under 5 2. Overall, social and economic indicators are impressive. Progress towards the attainment of the Millennium Development Goals has been steady. According to UNICEF s State of World Children 2012, under-5 mortality is 16 (per 1,000 live births) and infant mortality rate under 1 is 14 (per 1,000 live births) - among the lowest in the developing world. St. Lucia provides free and universal primary education and primary medical care while access to ante-natal care and to a skilled medical practitioner at birth is either near or completely universal. Life expectancy at birth is 72 years for men and 78 years for women. Approximately 31% of the population lives in urban areas. 1 Reed, N. Chai, J. and Anthony, D. Right in Principle and in Practice: A Review of the Social and Economic Returns to Investing in Children. UNICEF Division of Policy and Strategy, UNICEF. Children in the Urban World: The State of World Children

2 The current data available on poverty levels suggested that the country has considerably reduced its monetary poverty levels. Between 1995 and 2008, indigence or food poverty has been cut drastically from 7.1 per cent (1995) to 1.6 per cent (2006). However, poverty as measured by the headcount has remained persistently high at 28.8 per cent (2005). 3 Additionally, when account is taken of vulnerability 4, an additional 20% of the population can find themselves in poverty. 5 Despite overall progress, many children remain vulnerable to various problems in St. Lucia. Children s experience of risk, vulnerability and deprivation is shaped by characteristics of childhood poverty that is multidimensional and embracing both monetary and non-monetary aspects of poverty and also reflects children s situation over the course of the lifecycle. St. Lucia is listed 82 on Human Development Index in the world 6. According to the World Bank, St. Lucia s Gross National Income (GNI) per capita in US Dollars is 6680 and in PPP US Dollars 9385 in 2011 and Gini coefficient is 42.6 in The unemployment rate is 21.2% at the end of 2011 that translated to just under 19,000 unemployed people 7 and inflation rate 1.9% in Additionally numerous UNDP, UNICEF, UN Women, ILO, CDB and World Bank studies in the Eastern Caribbean including St. Lucia have found that income poverty is concentrated amongst women-headed households. Children, women and the elderly are the most affected, as are those living in rural areas. Further, poverty is inter-generational; limited social mobility arising from poor education and minimal labour market opportunities means that children that grow up in poor households are likely to themselves remain poor as adults. Across the region, these children live predominantly in female headed households where there is no residential father contributing regularly and dependably to child care. Additionally, single parenthood is, in no country, a category of eligibility for social safety net support by the state. The UNICEF-UN Women supported study on social safety nets in the Eastern Caribbean reveals that less than 12% of expenditure is targeted at single parent households. Child care is therefore essentially privatised and gendered, with women carrying the predominant burden of care given that shared family responsibility between mothers and fathers is not embedded in culture 9. In St. Lucia, like the majority of the Caribbean, the rising levels of unemployment reduced working hours and wage cuts have become key features of public and private sector austerity programmes. This decline in economic and productive output has resulted in countries reducing their public spending, including social expenditure, by almost one-third, thereby exposing the most disadvantaged to further economic and social risks and threats and potentially slowing progress toward meeting the MDGs. To ensure enhanced coordination and a comprehensive level of support to the countries of the Eastern Caribbean, the UN has come together under a Joint Programme ( ) which seeks to enhance equity, income equality and reduce poverty by rolling out social protection floor initiative and child and gender responsive social protection reform in Barbados and the OECS. C. Scope of Work: The new government of St. Lucia has pledged to build a better Saint Lucia in its Manifesto in Human and Social Development is one the fours pillar of the development plan envisioned by the government. 3 KAIRI Consultants Limited, St. Lucia Country Poverty Assessment 2005/2006 (Revised Edition), Government of St. Lucia. 4 Vulnerability is measured as the proportion of the population that would be susceptible to falling into poverty as a result of an unanticipated event such a natural disaster or adverse economic shock. St. Lucia Country Poverty Assessment 2005/2006, used an estimate of 25 per cent above the poverty line as the criterion of vulnerability. 5 St. Lucia, Medium Term Development Strategic Plan (Draft II), September UNDP, Human Development Report St. Lucia Budget Statement for the Financial Year , 8 May St. Lucia, Medium Term Development Strategic Plan (Draft II), September United Nations Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF) for Barbados and the OECS, Sub-regional Analysis,

3 The key strategic priorities for the government are job creation. A primary focus is addressing issues around youth unemployment. The government is taking a two prong strategy; first, it is providing immediate relief for some of the severely affected by unemployment by developing short term employment programmes. Second, it also plans to create opportunities for sustained employment in the long term, by implementing new programmes and initiatives including in partnership with the private sector 10. Some examples of programmes to tackle unemployment includes: National Initiative to Create Employment (NICE), Single Mothers Employment Programme (SMILES), Youth Empowerment Programme (YEP), Support for Youth Agriculture Entrepreneurship Programme (YAEP) and Short Term Employment Programme (STEP) 11. In social sector initiatives, the government is planning to attain Universal Early Childhood Education. Additionally, it has numerous education based public assistance programmes. In health sector, government envisions to achieve universal health care along with improving on the health infrastructure 12. Furthermore, the government recognizes the impacts of global economic and financial crises and plans a paradigm shift in the approach to social transformation: shifting the focus on provision of social welfare to focusing on social empowerment of the poor, particularly indigent poor, poor children, single mothers, and youth 13. Under the Ministry of Social Transformation, Local Government and Community Empowerment, the government has initiated reforming social protection programmes especially through the development of social protection policy, and reforming its public assistance programme. In order to make available financial resources for these strategic priorities, the government has initiated numerous initiatives in the budget for the financial year and that promotes economic growth but also fiscal consolidation, dealing with the fiscal deficit, managing the debt and introduction of VAT to achieve its development plans. All these strategic priorities to build human and social development demand identifying the scope for sustainable financing either in the form of re-prioritizing existing investments or need for additional investments and spending on poor households including women-headed households and children in St. Lucia. The central argument is that new priorities and new strategic objectives may be desirable from the point of view of progressive realization of children and women s rights and well-being, while at the same time spending decisions has to be taken with a perspective of taking into account the need to maintain fiscal and macroeconomic stability. Therefore, UNICEF, and UN Women in close consultation with the Ministry of Finance, Economic Affairs, Planning and Social Security proposes to initiate a study to analyze national budget, policies and investments for children in St. Lucia, ensuring a gender-based analytical perspective. The overarching purpose is to explore fiscal space for sustainable financing of existing as well as additional investments and spending that benefit poor households and children in particular. The study is based on a basic rationale that such fiscal space needs to exist or be created in order for government to increase or improve on spending on gender-responsive, national children priorities which may include education, health, child protection, social services, and social protection, in a sustainable manner. The debate on fiscal space for social investments in children is inherently intertwined and linked to the national budget and all budgetary processes. Therefore, substantive measurement of social investment for children requires singling out elements of the budget that generally affect children, and ensuring a gender-based perspective in so doing. Extracted from this will be those expenditures which target directly children not only adults or the 10 Saint Lucia Labour Party, Our Blue Print for growth, Building a Better Saint Lucia Manifesto Building Opportunities for Our Common Future, Budget Statement for the Financial Year 2012/2013 and 2013/2014, May Ibid, May Ibid, May

4 population at large in the country. Moreover, it will also include gender and child-sensitive interventions that not only targeted to the children but also those of their families and communities. Additionally, another key component of the study is to analyze the effectiveness and efficiency of existing direct and indirect public allocations for children, and how this effectiveness and efficiency is impacted in the degree to which they have been gender neutral or gender blind in their application. The general purpose of the study is to advise policy decisions regarding how to make available more financial resources in the national budget for investment in children without jeopardizing the fiscal sustainability. Considering St. Lucia s middle income country status, it is imperative to mention that this study does not intend to make a needs-based assessment of resources required for realizing children rights, instead it aims to make a positive assessment of the resources already available to the government of St. Lucia. D. Objectives: The objectives of the study are: Analyze the existing national budget policies, social expenditures and investments in social policies for the needs of children in St. Lucia; Analyze the existing allocation and operational effectiveness and efficiency of direct/indirect public allocations for children, and the degree to which gender responsive budgeting and policy development has impacted this efficiency and effectiveness; and prepare recommendations for increasing effectiveness and efficiency and review the impact on public finance of national development priorities for children; Analyze the overall economic and financial situation of St. Lucia, ensuring a gender-responsive analytical lens, to identify the scope of available or potential fiscal space to spend for social protection on a sustainable manner. E. Deliverables: There are two deliverables. The first deliverable will be divided into two parts (one complete report), and the second deliverable will be separate report. Deliverables Timeline Deliverable 1 Part I: Analyze national budget policies, social expenditures and investments for children in national social and public policies and programmes for the time period 2000 to current period 14. The key sources of such analysis will be official budget, policy and planning documents such as annual detailed budgets (for time period year 2000 to current period), ministry budget documents (finance and economic affairs, education, health, social transformation, gender, youth development and sports, child development including community development, and other ministries with direct/indirect social programmes for children), public budgeted social programmes for children, multiple indicator cluster survey (2012), country poverty assessment (survey of living conditions/household budget survey 2005/2006), national censuses data (2010), and December June The total time period (from 2000 to the current time) for the budget analysis will be decided in discussion with the Ministry of Finance, Economic Affairs, Planning and Social Security on the basis of available data. 4

5 Eastern Caribbean Central Bank data. With support from UN Women, this analysis will to the extent possible utilize gender-based budgeting tools and methodologies. The outcomes of this analysis will be: A. Analysis of the existing national legal framework and macro level policies, budget planning, formulation, execution, reporting, audit and monitoring. B. Social sector expenditure analysis focusing on areas of expenditure relevant for children. The proposed four priority areas are education, health, child protection and social protection. The analysis will include but not be limited to social expenditure as a % of total government expenditure, sectoral expenditure on children as a % of total government expenditure, social expenditure and GDP, breakdowns within each sector for spending on children, trends over time (time series) and also spending per child over time, if possible subject to availability of analysis comparisons with other middle income countries in the region (Latin America and the Caribbean) and beyond, and Small Island Developing States. C. Benefit incidence analysis 15 of public allocations to explain whether existing expenditure is progressive (include analysis of benefit distribution from poorest quintiles to the richest, among different regions and perishes, rural-urban, and if possible beneficiaries) and also distribution of resources to ministries, administrative units and service delivery level, December June 2014 D. Analysis of needs and outcomes for the children in social sector expenditures by beneficiary wealth quintiles, administrative and geographical regions, disaggregated (age, sex), gender, and disability. Part II: Analyze existing allocation and operational effectiveness and efficiency of direct/indirect public allocations for children, and the degree to which gender responsive budgeting and policy development has impacted this efficiency and effectiveness; and prepare recommendations in the context of linking national development priorities for children to expenditure allocation in planning, policy making and budgeting processes. The recommendations might focus on: Increasing allocation efficiency of public allocations that benefit children. Improving on linkages between national social priorities and needs of the children with budget planning and implementation processes. Explore mechanisms to improve on incorporating children priorities into current budget processes and social policies. The key sources of such analysis will be official budget documents such as annual detailed budgets (for time period year to current period), ministry budget documents (finance and economic affairs, education, health, social transformation, including community development, and other ministries with direct/indirect social programmes for children), audit reports from different ministries and public budgeted social programmes for children. 15 Benefit Incidence Analysis will be subject to the availability of data from the government counterparts. 5

6 The outcomes of this analysis will be: A. Analysis of effectiveness and efficiency of planning expenditures and its linkages with the key policy goals especially for children. B. Analysis of allocation efficiency to explain if expenditures are reaching to planned children priorities and key priority programmes get their due share of expenditure. It will also include an analysis of the structure and trends of the expenditure for children. C. Analysis of allocation efficiency to determine how/if gender-responsive approaches have been applied and how these could impact the overall effectiveness of the state s attempt to better support children; D. Analysis of operational efficiency to explore that spending is made efficiently and effectively in the sense that there is the right mix of inputs (salaries, goods and services, transfers and investment) in key sectors for children. One key dimension of analysis will be spending execution rates and processes for line ministries and service providers in getting access to the allocation voted in the budget. Deliverable 2 Analyze the overall economic and financial situation of St. Lucia to identify the scope of available or potential fiscal space to spend for social protection on sustainable manner, ensuring a gender-responsive analytical lens. The analysis will consider four core components: (1) is fiscal space available or the potential to be created, (2) sustainability of such space in the long run, (3) efficiency and effectiveness of increase in spending if such fiscal space is made available, and (4) macroeconomic and fiscal feasibility. The key sources of such analysis will be national as well as international data sources. Primarily, it will be official public finance data, Central Bank of Eastern Caribbean data and budget documents. It will also include World Bank s World Development Indicators Database, International Monetary Fund s (IMF) World Economic Outlook Database, IMF s Staff Estimates Reports, UNECLAC Economic Survey Data, and other regional financial institutions (Inter-American Development Bank, Caribbean Development Bank). The outcomes of this analysis will be: A. On the basis of deliverable one (part I & II), how much fiscal space is required in order to finance existing as well as newly identified national priorities for social protection. December June 2014 B. Overall costing of national social protection priorities and especially progressive realization of social protection floor in the country. Also simulate the potential impacts of the nationally defined social protection floor and cost effectiveness of such a floor. C. Analysis of the overall macroeconomic, fiscal environment and fiscal management including key balances and related budget aggregates (revenues, expenditure, aid, debt). D. Pro opportunities of potential fiscal space through analysis of but not limited to; 6

7 domestic revenues (tax policy, tax administration, performance of tax system, investment incentives etc.), reallocation (discretionary and non-discretionary expenditure, reprioritization in public spending and efficiency of expenditures), deficit financing (external debt, domestic debt, debt sustainability, debt projections etc.), borrowing, and aid. E. Provide policy proposal for minimum package of social protection floor for St. Lucia with clear estimate of the short medium and the long term cost that introduction of such a package entail. F. Methodology The national budget analysis methodology will consist of literature review and secondary data analysis through multiple sources available for St. Lucia 16. The Ministry of Finance, Economic Affairs, Planning and Social Security will ensure availability of data in coordination with all the national and international stakeholders. Consultant is also expected to conduct meetings and consultations with key national stakeholders. The consultant will work with the UN Women/UNICEF lead Social Protection expert to ensure that, where possible, the methodologies used draw on child and gender-responsive analytical and budgeting tools. Additionally, consultant is expected to ensure that fiscal space analysis is in line with the ILO Social Protection Floors Recommendations, 2012 (No. 202) which was adopted by the International Labour Conference (ILC) at its 101st session in June G. Deliverables and Timeframe: A consultant will submit the above mentioned deliverables and will prepare; - a draft work plan within one (1) week of the signing of the contract in consultation with UNICEF, UN Women, and Ministry of Finance, Economic Affairs, Planning and Social Security, St. Lucia. - a final work plan within one (1) week of receiving UNICEF, UN Women, and Ministry of Finance, Economic Affairs, Planning and Social Security comments on the draft work plan. - a draft reports on deliverable 1 (Part I and II) by April a draft report on deliverable 2 by May final reports that meets UNICEF standards for good reports within two (2) week of receiving UNICEF, UN Women and Ministry of Finance, Economic Affairs, Planning and Social Security comments on the draft report. - Presentation of the results to government stakeholders, UNICEF, UN Women and its partners. # Deliverables Duration (# of Days) 1 Final work plan in consultation with UNICEF, UN Women and Ministry of Finance, Economic Affairs, Planning and Social Security. Payment of 10% of total cost at the submission of this delieverable. Deadline 10 December, The data sources that will be used are highlighted under each deliverable on page 4 and 5. This is not exhausted list of data sources, consultant is expected to work with the Ministry of Finance, Economic Affairs, Planning and Social Security and other national key stakeholders to access and analyze available data. 7

8 2 Deliverable 1 (Part I & II): Analyze national budget policies, social expenditures and investments for children in national social and public policies and programmes for the time period year 2000 to current period. Analyze existing allocation and operational effectiveness and efficiency of direct/indirect public allocations for children and prepare recommendations in the context of linking national development priorities for children to expenditure allocation in planning, policy making and budgeting processes. 50 Days 30 June, 2014 The proposed four priority areas are education, health, child protection and social protection. Payment of 45% of total cost at the submission of this delieverable. 3 Deliverable 2: Analyze the overall economic and financial situation of St. Lucia to identify the scope of available or potential fiscal space to spend for social protection on sustainable manner. 30 days 30 June, 2014 Payment of 45% of total cost at the submission of this delieverable. All deliverables will be reviewed and commented upon by UNICEF, UN Women, and Government of the St. Lucia amd these comments will be incorporated by the consultant. Education and Qualification Advanced university degree in social sciences, economics, statistics, public finance management, development studies, social or public policy, with specialization in social budgeting or public finance management. Skills and Experience - At least 10 years of professional experience in international development. - Demonstrable proficiency in technical expertise and proven record of conducting social budget analysis, fiscal space analysis for social protection, quantitative data analysis, benefit incidence analysis and/or PFM experience is an asset. - Have a strong knowledge of child rights and human rights. - Have excellent communication and advocacy skills. - Have strong analytical and writing skills. - Be fluent in English. - Have experience of working with multiple partners and agencies and national governments in an international setting, familiarity with the Caribbean region and/or Small Island Developing States (SIDS) is an asset. Languages Fluency in English. 8

9 Duration of Contract The total contract time period for the consultant will be 80 working days from 01 December 2013 to 30 June Contract Supervisor The Consultant will report directly to the Social and Economic Policy Specialist, UNICEF Office for the Eastern Caribbean Area based in Trinidad and Tobago. Second supervision will be provided by Deputy Representative, UNICEF Office for the Eastern Caribbean Area based in Barbados. Official Travel There is official travel in this consultancy and the consultant is expected to travel to St. Lucia. The total number of days to travel to St. Lucia will be discussed and decided with the successful candidate on the basis of the work plan prepared by the consultant. The consultant can also put junior consultant/associate researcher on full time basis in St. Lucia that can be housed in Ministry of Finance, Economic Affairs, Planning and Social Security to ensure data collection from different stakeholders. Estimated Budget Interested individual and firms will be expected to provide quotations for the contract. Payment schedule This assignment should be completed during the period 01 December 2013 to 30 June 2014 and payment will be made upon submission of a progress report on the achievements of the deliverables. Conditions of Service Prior to commencing the contract, the following conditions must be met: A Corporate Entity will be required to submit samples of previous relevant work, a Certificate of Incorporation for the Company as well as a profile of the individual(s) who would be undertaking the assignment. An Individual Consultant will be required to submit samples of previous relevant work, a statement of good health, accompanied by a recent Medical Certificate which indicates that the Consultant is fit for work and travel. In addition, the Consultant is required to certify in the Health Statement that he/she is covered by medical/health insurance. The statement includes confirmation that he/she has been informed of any inoculation required for the country or countries to which travel is authorized. He/she takes full responsibility for the accuracy of the statement. Recourse UNICEF reserves the right to withhold all or a portion of payment if performance is unsatisfactory, if work/outputs is incomplete, not delivered or for failure to meet deadlines. Performance indicators against which the satisfactory conclusion of this contract will be assessed include: timeliness/quality of submission and responsiveness to UNICEF and counterpart feedback. Property Rights UNICEF shall hold all property rights, such as copyright, patents and registered trademarks, on matter directly related to, or derived from, the work carried out through this contract with UNICEF. 9

10 Application Qualified individual candidates, teams and/or organizations are requested to submit 1. CV or P11 Form for individual candidate or for each team member as part of joint proposal, 2. Cover letter, 3. Detail budget stipulating all-inclusive fees including lump sum travel and subsistence cost 17, and 4. Two samples of relevant work completed in the last 2-3 years. The application should be submitted with subject line Budget Analysis St. Lucia, to with Cc. to The deadline for the submission of application is 17 November Please indicate your ability, all-inclusive fees including lump sum travel and subsistence cost and availability to undertake the terms of reference above. Applications submitted without all-inclusive fees including lump sum travel and subsistence cost quote will not be considered. 17 Under UNICEF Administrative Instructions, consultants are expected to submit all-inclusive quotes for the completion of the consultancy. It includes daily rate or lump sum fee for the completion of the consultancy, lump sum travel to the country of work (for all missions) and daily subsistence cost to cover the total number of travel days. 10