KENYA'S VISION 2030: AN AUDIT FROM AN INCOME AND GENDER INEQUALITIES PERSPECTIVE. SID Society for International Development

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1 KENYA'S VISION 2030: AN AUDIT FROM AN INCOME AND GENDER INEQUALITIES PERSPECTIVE SID Society for International Development

2 I Contents Section 1 List of Abbreviations and Acronyms x Executive Summary xiv Acknowledgements xvii Section 1- Growing Unequally: An audit of the impact of Kenya's Vision 2030 growth on equality 1 1. Introduction 2 2. Inequality and Growth The state of inequality in Kenya over time Drivers of inequality in Kenya A structural explanation for inequality in Kenya 6 3. Vision 2030, Past Growth and Inequality 9 4. Methodology Employment growth in Vision The possibility of 10 per cent growth Estimating the impact of growth on employment Simulations Simulation of employment and income effects at the national level Simulation of employment effects by sex at the national level Simulation of regional employment effects Priority Sectors: Growth, employment and inequality Employment impacts Inequality Addressing Inequality: Social programmes Policy Implications Data and information recommendations Labour intensive employment The agrarian and rural questions 29 Land redistribution 29

3 Rural environmental conservation 8.4 The urban question and transforming the Jua Kali sector Urban housing, redistribution and creating green jobs Upgrading the Jua Kali sector 8.5 Dividing national income: The wage versus profit share Conclusions 35 References Appendix Acknowledgements List of Tables Table 1.1: Income Gini coefficients, Table 1.2: Projected GDP and employment growth rates, Table 1.3: Highest Kenyan GDP growth rates for 3-, 5- and 10-year periods 14 Table 1.4: Gross elasticities of employment, Table 1.5: Simulation of employment and income changes with fixed unemployment rate using total employment elasticity, Table 1.6: Simulation of employment and income changes with fixed unemployment rate using private sector employment elasticity, Table 1.7: Cumulative growth of labour incomes compared with per capita GDP, Table 1.8: Simulation of employment impact on women and men, Table 1.9: Simulation of regional employment impact ('000 ) 23 Table 1.10: Simulation of rural urban employment impact ('000 ) 23 List of Figures Figure 1.1: Figure 1.2: Figure 1.3: Figure 1.4: Figure 1.5: Figure 1.6: Figure 1.7: Figure 1.Al: Ratio of rural to urban earning and formal sector job dependency, Indexes of real earnings per capita, GDP per capita in US$ (2001), Ratio of Kenyan GDP per capita with that of comparable countries, Rural income per capita in US$ (2000) by industry as proportion of GDP for South Korea, Rural income per capita in US$ (2000) by industry as percentage of GDP for Malaysia, Employment by sex, Public and private sector employment,

4 I I Contents Section 2 Section 2 - Gender and Kenya Vision 2030: An audit of the economic pillar Introduction Background Information The economic pillar of Kenya Vision Situation analysis of gender in Kenya 46 Education 46 Labour force participation and employment 46 Access to finance 48 Participation in women groups and cooperative societies Gender mainstreaming in public policy in Kenya 49 The National Policy on Gender and Development 50 Sessional Paper No. 2 of 2006 on Gender Equality and Development 50 Plan of Action to Implement the National Policy on Gender and Development 51 Monitoring and Evaluation Framework for Gender Mainstreaming Gender and the Macro Economy Understanding the link between gender and development Linking gender and macroeconomics 53 Gendered databases 54 Gender and macroeconomic policy analysis Gender and the Economic Pillar of Vision Agriculture 56 Reforming institutions 57 Increasing productivity 57 Land transformation 58 Development of ASAL areas 58 Increasing market access through value chain addition Manufacturing 58 Gender dimensions of the flagship projects in the manufacturing sector 59 Gender constraints Tourism 59

5 Gender dimensions in the tourism sector 60 Gender constraints Wholesale and Retail Trade 60 Creation of organized small operator retail markets 61 Expanding formal market outreach Financial Services 61 Expanding access to financial services 61 Increasing efficiency of the financial system 62 Enhancing stability of the financial system Business process out-sourcing (BPO) 62 BPO challenges 63 Gender dimensions in the BPO sector Conclusions and Policy Recommendations Conclusions Recommendations 65 References 67 List of Tables Table 2.1: Registered women's groups by membership, contribution and Government of Kenya grants, Table 2.2: Women's participation in cooperative societies in List of Figures Figure 2.1: Wage employment in Kenya by industry and sex, Figure 2.2: Percentage distribution of wage employment in Kenya by sex and monthly income groups, Figure 2.3: Access to finance by sex,

6 5. A Gender Analysis of the Social Pillar of Kenya's Vision Environment, water and sanitation, housing and population 5.1 Situation analysis: Environment subsector Sustainable management of natural resources Demand for farmland and forest products 113 Wild animals in their natural habitat 113 Medication/hazardous waste 113 Climate change and desertification 114 Harnessing strategic natural resources 114 Summary Situation analysis: Water and sanitation subsector 115 A gender analysis of the environment, water and sanitation sectors using the Harvard analytical framework 117 An analysis of the environment, water and sanitation subsector strategies and goals using the Moser framework 5.3 Housing and urbanization Situation analysis A gender analysis of the housing and urbanization subsector using the Harvard analytical framework An analysis of the urbanization and housing subsector strategies and goals using the Moser framework A Gender Analysis of the Social Pillar of Kenya's Vision Gender subsector Gender, youth and vulnerable groups 127 Situation analysis 127 An analysis of the gender subsector strategies and goals using the Moser framework Challenges to gender mainstreaming Conclusions and Recommendations Conclusions Recommendations 131 Make a gender analysis of issues a prerequisite to any situation analysis 131 Collect sex-disaggregated and gender-sensitive data 131 Engender performance monitoring and evaluation frameworks 132 Institute gender responsive budgeting 133 Build awareness, capacity and ownership 133 Strategically locate the Ministry of Gender and gender focal points 133 References 134 List of Tables Table 3.1: Gender mainstreaming: Elements and features 76 Table 3.2: Moser framework: Typology of interventions 84 Table 3.3: Employment in the Ministry of Higher Education by job group and sex, Table 3.4: Number of primary school teachers by sex, Table 3.5: Number of secondary school teachers by sex,

7 Table 3.6: Primary net enrolment rates (NER) (%) by province and sex, Table 3.7: Secondary gross enrolment rates (GER) (%) by province and sex, Table 3.8: Secondary to tertiary/university transition rates, 2002/ /08 92 Table 3.9: Student enrolment in TIVET institutions by sex, Table 3.10: Student enrolment in universities by sex, 2003/ /09 93 Table 3.11: KCPE raw mean score by sex and subject, Table 3.12: Key focus areas in the health sector 101 Table 3.13: Number of undergraduate and post graduate medical students by course and sex, 2003/ / Table 3.14: Life expectancy at birth by sex, Table 3.15: Total numbers and distribution by percentage of medical staff, by facility type, Table 3.16: Population catchments of dispensaries, health centres and district hospitals, by province, Table 3.17: Prevalence of HIV, HSV-2 and syphilis among women and men aged years, 2003, Table 3.18: Percentage of households with access to safe drinking water, 2005/ Table 3.19: Modified activity profile matrix environment, water and sanitation sectors 117 Table 3.20: Employment statistics in the ministries of Energy, Lands, Environment and Mineral Resources, and Water and Irrigation, by job group and sex, Table 3.21: Activity profile matrix - Urbanization and housing sector 124 Table 3.22: Employment in the Ministry of Housing disaggregated by sex and job group (2009) 125 List of Figures Figure 3.1: Primary NER (%) by province and sex, Figure 3.2: Secondary GER (%) by province and sex, Figure 3.3: Student enrolment in TIVET institutions by sex, Figure 3.4: Student enrolment in universities by sex, 2003 / / Figure 3.5: Proportion of Ministry of Health staff by gender in the lowest and highest job groups, Figure 3.6: Female Ministry of Health employees (%),