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1 Turkey Romania Bulgaria Serbia FYROM Albania Cyprus Egypt * Turkey Romania Bulgaria Serbia FYROM Albania Cyprus Egypt * Turkey Romania Bulgaria Serbia FYROM Albania Cyprus Egypt * Turkey Romania Bulgaria Serbia FYROM Albania Cyprus Egypt * Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Macroeconomic and Financial Indicators Update Q1:18 8 Real GDP Growth (%) A 17Ε 18F End-Year Inflation (%) A 17Ε 18F 5 Turkey Romania Bulgaria Serbia FYROM Fiscal Balance (% GDP) Albania Cyprus Egypt A 17Ε 18F NBG - Economic Analysis Division Paul Mylonas, PhD : pmylonas@nbg.gr 6 4 Current Account Balance (% GDP) 16A 17Ε 18F 6 4 Emerging Markets Research Head: Michael Loufir : : mloufir@nbg.gr Analysts: Konstantinos Romanos-Louizos : : romanos.louizos.k@nbg.gr Louiza Troupi : : troupi.louiza@nbg.gr Athanasios Lampousis : : lampousis.athanasios@nbg.gr *: Fiscal year ending in June The information in this document, being distributed by National Bank of Greece S.A., is based upon data and sources of information believed to be correct and reliable but the accuracy of which cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, implied or expressed, is made by any member of National Bank of Greece S.A. as to its accuracy adequacy, timeliness or completeness.
2 Macroeconomic & Financial Indicators Update Q1:18 TURKEY e 18f 19f Nominal GDP (EUR million) 773,5 78,551 75, ,46 774,334 GDP per capita (EUR) 9,83 9,78 9,337 9,156 9,41 GDP growth (real, %) Unemployment rate (%, aop) Inflation (%, eop) Inflation (%, aop) Loans to the Private Sector (% change, eop) (Jan., y-o-y %) Customer Deposits (% change, eop) (Jan., y-o-y %) Loans to the Private Sector (% of GDP) (Jan.) Retail Loans (% of GDP) (Jan.) Corporate Loans (% of GDP) (Jan.) Customer Deposits (% of GDP) (Jan.) Loans to Private Sector (% of Cust. Deposits) (Jan.) Foreign Currency Loans (% of Total Loans) (Jan.) Merchandise exports (USD million) 151,97 15, ,775 17,8 175,7 Merchandise imports (USD million) -,84-191, -4,411-3,5-38,568 Trade balance (USD million) -48,114-4,859-58,636-59,7-63,498 Trade balance (% of GDP) Current account balance (USD million) -3,118-33,137-47,1-44,93-45,593 Current account balance (% of GDP) Net FDI (USD million) 1,455 1,196 8,18 8,8 8,6 Net FDI (% of GDP) International reserves (USD million) 9,9 9,51 84,111 84,1 84, International reserves (Months a ) Primary balance (% of GDP) Fiscal balance (% of GDP) Gross public debt (% of GDP) Gross external debt (USD million) 396,41 45, , ,78 54,386 Gross external debt (% of GDP) External debt service (USD million) 49,65 73,533 75,719 6,374 64, External debt service (% of reserves) External debt service (% of exports b ) Policy rate * (Effective funding rate, %, eop) Policy rate * (Effective funding rate, %, aop) Y T-bill rate (%, eop) Spread of the 3 Eurobond (bps, eop) (Feb. 6 th ) Exchange rate: USD (eop) Exchange rate: USD (aop) Stock market index: ISE1 (eop) 71,77 78, , ,79 (Feb. 6 th ) e: NBG estimates; f: NBG forecasts; a: months of imports of GNFS; b: interest plus medium and long-term repayments; *: Overnight borrowing rate until April 9 and 1-week repo rate until September 11 NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Market Research 1
3 Macroeconomic & Financial Indicators Update Q1:18 ROMANIA e 18f 19f Nominal GDP (EUR million) 16,68 169,7 18, ,8 1,54 GDP per capita (EUR) 8,3 8,497 9,67 9,757 1,565 GDP growth (real, %) Unemployment rate(ilo definition, %, aop) Inflation (%, eop) Inflation (%, aop) Loans to the Private Sector (% change, eop) (Jan. y-o-y %) Customer Deposits (% change, eop) (Jan. y-o-y %) Loans to the Private Sector (% of GDP) (Jan.) Retail Loans (% of GDP) (Jan.) Corporate Loans (% of GDP) (Jan.) Customer Deposits (% of GDP) (Jan.) Loans to Private Sector (% of Deposits) (Jan.) Foreign Currency Loans (% of Total Loans) (Jan.) Merchandise exports (EUR million) 49,115 5,171 57,1 61,896 68,86 Merchandise imports (EUR million) 56,9 61,44 69,18 76,73 85,36 Trade balance (EUR million) -7,787-9,53-1,8-14,836-17,4 Trade balance (% of GDP) Current account balance (EUR million) -1,97-3,496-6,465-8,619-9,956 Current account balance (% of GDP) Net FDI (EUR million),956 4,516 4,574 5,31 5,535 Net FDI (% of GDP) International reserves (EUR million) 3,38 34,4 33,494 3,16 3,585 International reserves (Months a ) Primary balance (% of GDP) Fiscal balance (% of GDP) Gross public debt * (% of GDP) b Gross external debt (EUR million) 9,68 9,91 93,954 94,6 95,785 Gross external debt (% of GDP) External debt service (EUR million) 5,85 1,4 15,87 17, 16,7 External debt service (% of reserves) External debt service (% of exports) Policy rate (1-w repo rate, %, eop) Policy rate (1-w repo rate, %, aop) Y T-bill rate (%. eop) Spread of the 4 Eurobond ** (bps, eop) (Feb. 6 th ) Exchange rate: EUR (eop) Exchange rate: EUR (aop) Stock market index: BET-BK (eop) 1,34 1,344 1,651 1,743 (Feb. 6 th ) e: NBG estimates; f: NBG forecasts; a: months of imports of GNFS; *: incl. guaranteed debt; **: 1 Eurobond until Eurobond until 11 NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Market Research
4 Macroeconomic & Financial Indicators Update Q1:18 BULGARIA e 18f 19f Nominal GDP (EUR million) 45,89 48,19 5,986 54,3 57,494 GDP per capita (EUR) 6,33 6,774 7,7 7,751 8,65 GDP growth (real, %) Unemployment rate(ilo definition, %, aop) Inflation (%, eop) Inflation (%, aop) Loans to the Private Sector (% change, eop) (Jan. y-o-y %) Customer Deposits (% change, eop) (Jan. y-o-y %) Loans to the Private Sector (% of GDP) (Jan.) Retail Loans (% of GDP) (Jan.) Corporate Loans (% of GDP) (Jan.) Customer Deposits (% of GDP) (Jan.) Loans to Private Sector (% of Deposits) (Jan.) Foreign Currency Loans (% of Total Loans) (Jan.) Merchandise exports (EUR million) 1,919 3,14 5,818 7,884 9,863 Merchandise imports (EUR million) 4,54 4,88 7,859 3,589 33,81 Trade balance (EUR million) -,6 -,984 -,41 -,76-3,418 Trade balance (% of GDP) Current account balance (EUR million) -,17,561 1,98 1,4,791 Current account balance (% of GDP) Net FDI (EUR million),39,34,66,75,939 Net FDI (% of GDP) International reserves (EUR million) 19,,475,57 4,9 6,59 International reserves (Months a ) Primary balance (% of GDP) Fiscal balance (% of GDP) Gross public debt * (% of GDP) Gross external debt (EUR million) 33,317 34,46 33,39 34,317 36,16 Gross external debt (% of GDP) External debt service (EUR million) 9,37 6,77 6, 6,4 6,6 External debt service (% of reserves) External debt service (% of exports) Money Market Rate (1-M SOFIBOR, %, eop) Money Market Rate (1-M SOFIBOR, %, aop) Y Bond rate (%, eop) Spread of the Eurobond ** (bps, eop) (Feb. 6 th ) Exchange rate: EUR (eop) Exchange rate: EUR (aop) Stock market index: SOFIX (eop) (Feb. 6 th ) e: NBG estimates; f: NBG forecasts; a: months of imports of GNFS; *: incl. guaranteeed debt; **: 13 Eurobond until Eurobond until 11 NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Market Research 3
5 Macroeconomic & Financial Indicators Update Q1:18 SERBIA e 18f 19f Nominal GDP (EUR million) 33,5 34,144 36,446 39,595 4,635 GDP per capita (EUR) 4,74 4,837 5,184 5,655 6,113 GDP growth (real, %) Unemployment rate (%, aop) Inflation (%, eop) Inflation (%, aop) Loans to the Private Sector (% change, eop) Customer Deposits (% change, eop) Loans to the Private Sector (% of GDP) Retail Loans (% of GDP) Corporate Loans (% of GDP) Customer Deposits (% of GDP) Loans to Private Sector (% of Deposits) Foreign Currency Loans (% of Total Loans) Merchandise exports (EUR million) 11,357 1,814 14,9 15,17 16,358 Merchandise imports (EUR million) 15,35 15,933 18,76 19,377,656 Trade balance (EUR million) -3,993-3,119-3,986-4,16-4,98 Trade balance (% of GDP ) Current account balance (EUR million) -1,577-1,75 -,9-1,968 -,47 Current account balance (% of GDP ) Net FDI (EUR million) 1,84 1,899,415,439,463 Net FDI (% of GDP ) International reserves (EUR million) 1,378 1,5 9,96 1,54 1,49 International reserves (Months a ) Primary balance (% of GDP) Fiscal balance (% of GDP) Gross public debt (% of GDP) Gross external debt (EUR million) 6,34 6,488 6,41 6,766 7,37 Gross external debt (% of GDP) External debt service (EUR million) 3, 4,1 5, 4,6 4,4 External debt service (% of reserves) External debt service (% of exports) Policy rate (-w repo rate, %, eop) Policy rate (-w repo rate, %, aop) M T-bill rate (%, eop).9.8 n.a Spread of the 4 Eurobond (bps, eop) (Feb. 6 th ) Exchange rate: EUR (eop) Exchange rate: EUR (aop) Stock market index: BELEX 15 (eop) (Feb. 6 th ) e: NBG estimates; f: NBG forecasts; a: months of imports of GNFS NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Market Research 4
6 Macroeconomic & Financial Indicators Update Q1:18 F.Y.R.O.M e 18f 19f Nominal GDP (EUR million) 9,11 9,738 1,149 1,738 11,356 GDP per capita (EUR) 4,394 4,697 4,889 5,167 5,459 GDP growth (real, %) Unemployment rate (%, aop) Inflation (%, eop) Inflation (%, aop) Loans to the Private Sector (% change, eop) (Jan., y-o-y %) Customer Deposits (% change, eop) (Jan., y-o-y %) Loans to the Private Sector (% of GDP) (Jan.) Retail Loans (% of GDP) (Jan.) Corporate Loans (% of GDP) (Jan.) Customer Deposits (% of GDP) (Jan.) Loans to Private Sector (% of Deposits) (Jan.) Foreign Currency Loans (% of Total Loans) (Jan.) Merchandise exports (EUR million) 3,47 3,471 3,94 4,173 4,4 Merchandise imports (EUR million) 4,87 5,79 5,739 6,17 6,43 Trade balance (EUR million) -1,83-1,89-1,815-1,934 -,8 Trade balance (% of GDP) Current account balance (EUR million) -,177 -,65 -,7 -,55 -,86 Current account balance (% of GDP) Net FDI (EUR million),3,317,184,, Net FDI (% of GDP) International reserves (EUR million),6,613,336,913 3,113 International reserves (Months a ) Primary balance (% of GDP) Fiscal balance (% of GDP) Gross public debt * (% of GDP) Gross external debt (EUR million) 6,91 7,53 7,4 8, 8,4 Gross external debt (% of GDP) External debt service (EUR million) 1,949 1,74 1,937,8 1,97 External debt service (% of reserves) External debt service (% of exports) d CB bill rate (%, eop) d CB bill rate (%, aop) M T-bill rate (%, eop) Spread of the 1 Eurobond (bps, eop) (Feb. 6 th ) Exchange rate: EUR (eop) Exchange rate: EUR (aop) Stock market index: MBI 1 (eop) 1,833,135,539,769 (Feb. 6 th ) e: NBG estimates; f: NBG forecasts; a: months of imports of GNFS; *: incl. guaranteed debt NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Market Research 5
7 Macroeconomic & Financial Indicators Update Q1:18 ALBANIA e 18f 19f Nominal GDP (EUR million) 1,34 1,744 11,653 1,619 13,656 GDP per capita (EUR) 3,553 3,736 4,56 4,396 4,76 GDP growth (real, %) Unemployment rate (%, aop) Inflation (%, eop) Inflation (%, aop) Loans to the Private Sector (% change, eop) Customer Deposits (% change, eop) Loans to the Private Sector (% of GDP) Retail Loans (% of GDP) Corporate Loans (% of GDP) Customer Deposits (% of GDP) Loans to Private Sector (% of Deposits) Foreign Currency Loans (% of Total Loans) a Merchandise exports (EUR million),771,714,81,854,95 Merchandise imports (EUR million) 3,7 3,317 3,681 3,81 3,97 Trade balance (EUR million) -,99 -,63 -,861 -,957-3,65 Trade balance (% of GDP) Current account balance (EUR million) -,884 -,81 -,989-1,3 -,951 Current account balance (% of GDP) Net FDI (EUR million),818,936 1,11 1,11 1,11 Net FDI (% of GDP) International reserves (EUR million),88,945 3,7 3,9 3,151 International reserves (Months a ) Primary balance (% of GDP) Fiscal balance (% of GDP) Gross public debt (% of GDP) Gross external debt (EUR million) 7,634 7,86 8,6 8,6 8,46 Gross external debt (% of GDP) External debt service (EUR million),548,7,85,3,8 External debt service (% of reserves) External debt service (% of exports) Policy rate (1-week repo rate, %, eop) Policy rate (1-week repo rate, %, aop) Y T-bill rate (%, eop) Spread of the Eurobond * (bps, eop) (Feb. 6 th ) Exchange rate: EUR (eop) Exchange rate: EUR (aop) Stock market index (eop) e: NBG estimates; f: NBG forecasts; a: months of imports of GNFS; *: 15 Eurobond until 14 NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Market Research 6
8 Macroeconomic & Financial Indicators Update Q1:18 CYPRUS e 18f 19f Nominal GDP (EUR million) 17,74 18,13 18,93 19,74,63 GDP per capita (EUR),947 1,371,19,988 3,846 GDP growth (real, %) Unemployment rate (%, aop) Inflation (%, eop) Inflation (%, aop) Loans to the Private Sector (% change, eop) Customer Deposits (% change, eop) Loans to the Private Sector (% of GDP) Retail Loans (% of GDP) Corporate Loans (% of GDP) Customer Deposits (% of GDP) Loans to Private Sector (% of Deposits) Foreign Currency Loans (% of Total Loans) Merchandise exports (EUR million),878,594,6,646,673 Merchandise imports (EUR million) 5,848 6,461 6,655 6,761 6,964 Trade balance (EUR million) -,97-3,867-4,35-4,115-4,9 Trade balance (% of GDP) Current account balance (EUR million) -,59 -,889 -,99 -,88 -,97 Current account balance (% of GDP) Net FDI (EUR million) -8,415 1,413 1,1 1,5 1,36 Net FDI (% of GDP) International reserves (EUR million) International reserves (Months a ) Primary balance (% of GDP) Fiscal balance (% of GDP) Gross public debt (% of GDP) Gross external debt (EUR million) 11,68 17,84 19,584 11, ,584 Gross external debt (% of GDP) External debt service (EUR million) External debt service (% of reserves) External debt service (% of exports) Policy rate b (ECB refinancing rate, %, eop) Policy rate b (ECB refinancing rate, %, aop) Y T-bill rate (%, eop) Spread of the Eurobond (bps, eop) (Feb. 6 th ) Exchange rate: USD (eop) Exchange rate: USD (aop) Stock market index: CSE (eop) (Feb. 6 th ) e: NBG estimates; f: NBG forecasts; a: months of imports of GNFS; b: not effective since September 11 NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Market Research 7
9 Macroeconomic & Financial Indicators Update Q1:18 EGYPT 14/15* 15/16* 16/17* 17/18*f 18/19*f Nominal GDP (EUR million) 77,845 31,73 18, 1,8 3,875 GDP per capita (EUR) 3,1 3,338,3,167,348 GDP growth (real, %) Unemployment rate (%, aop) Inflation (%, eop) Inflation (%, aop) Loans to the Private Sector (% change, eop) (Oct., y-o-y %) Customer Deposits (% change, eop) (Oct., y-o-y %) Loans to the Private Sector (% of GDP) (Oct.) Retail Loans (% of GDP) (Oct.) Corporate Loans (% of GDP) (Oct.) Customer Deposits (% of GDP) (Oct.) Loans to Private Sector (% of Deposits) (Oct.) Foreign Currency Loans (% of Total Loans) (Oct.) Merchandise exports (USD million),58 18,75 1,687 3,97 3,95 Merchandise imports (USD million) 6,844 57,388 57,1 58,55 6,356 Trade balance (USD million) -38,785-38,683-35,435-35,453-38,451 Trade balance (% of GDP) Current account balance (USD million) -1,18-19,831-15,575-13,65-13,17 Current account balance (% of GDP) Net FDI (USD million) 6,148 6,674 7,741 8,8 9,6 Net FDI (% of GDP) International reserves (USD million),8 17,546 31,35 36,5 38,5 International reserves (Months a ) Primary balance (% of GDP) Fiscal balance (% of GDP) Gross public debt (% of GDP) Gross external debt (USD million) 48,63 55,8 7,763 87,171 89,341 Gross external debt (% of GDP) External debt service b (USD million),9 3,5 3,8 4,8 5,5 External debt service b (% of reserves) External debt service (% of exports c ) Policy rate (O/N deposit rate, %, eop) Policy rate (O/N deposit rate, %, aop) M T-bill rate (%, eop) Spread of the Eurobond (bps, eop) (Feb. 6 th ) Exchange rate: USD (eop) Exchange rate: USD (aop) Stock market index: HERMES (eop) ,17 1,56 (Feb. 6 th ) *: fiscal year starting in July and ending in June; f: NBG forecasts; a: months of imports of GNFS NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Market Research 8
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