Economic Analysis Division

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1 Turkey Romania Bulgaria Serbia FYROM Albania Cyprus Egypt * Turkey Romania Bulgaria Serbia FYROM Albania Cyprus Egypt * Turkey Romania Bulgaria Serbia FYROM Albania Cyprus Egypt * Turkey Romania Bulgaria Serbia FYROM Albania Cyprus Egypt * Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Macroeconomic and Financial Indicators Update Q3: Real GDP Growth (%) 15A 16A 17F End-Year Inflation (%) 15A 16A 17F Turkey Romania Bulgaria Serbia FYROM Fiscal Balance (% GDP) Albania Cyprus Egypt A 16A 17F NBG - Economic Analysis Division Paul Mylonas, PhD : pmylonas@nbg.gr Emerging Markets Research Head: Michael Loufir : : mloufir@nbg.gr Analysts: Konstantinos Romanos-Louizos : : romanos.louizos.k@nbg.gr Louiza Troupi : : troupi.louiza@nbg.gr Athanasios Lampousis : : lampousis.athanasios@nbg.gr Current Account Balance (% GDP) *: Fiscal year ending in June 15A 16A 17F The information in this document, being distributed by National Bank of Greece S.A., is based upon data and sources of information believed to be correct and reliable but the accuracy of which cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, implied or expressed, is made by any member of National Bank of Greece S.A. as to its accuracy adequacy, timeliness or completeness.

2 Macroeconomic & Financial Indicators Update Q3:17 TURKEY f 18f Nominal GDP (EUR million) 7, , ,17 737,1 778,655 GDP per capita (EUR) 9,4 9,819 9,71 9,16 9,546 GDP growth (real, %) Unemployment rate (%, aop) Inflation (%, eop) Inflation (%, aop) Loans to the Private Sector (% change, eop) (July, y-o-y) Customer Deposits (% change, eop) (July, y-o-y) Loans to the Private Sector (% of GDP) (July) Retail Loans (% of GDP) (July) Corporate Loans (% of GDP) (July) Customer Deposits (% of GDP) (July) Loans to Private Sector (% of Cust. Deposits) (July) Foreign Currency Loans (% of Total Loans) (July) Merchandise exports (USD million) 168,96 151,97 15, ,6 158,8 Merchandise imports (USD million) -3,53 -,84-191, -199,6-7, Trade balance (USD million) -63,597-48,114-4,859-43, -48, Trade balance (% of GDP) Current account balance (USD million) -43,55-3,118-3,66-35,977-38,917 Current account balance (% of GDP) Net FDI (USD million) 5,476 1,455 9,16 8,9 9,6 Net FDI (% of GDP) International reserves (USD million) 16,9 9,9 9,9 89,6 9, International reserves (Months a ) Primary balance (% of GDP) Fiscal balance (% of GDP) Gross public debt (% of GDP) Gross external debt (USD million) 41,78 395,86 44,89 446, ,78 Gross external debt (% of GDP) External debt service (USD million) 55,563 54,13 74,581 74,581 7,581 External debt service (% of reserves) External debt service (% of exports b ) Policy rate * (Effective funding rate, %, eop) Policy rate * (Effective funding rate, %, aop) Y T-bill rate (%, eop) Spread of the 3 Eurobond (bps, eop) (Sep. 4 th ) Exchange rate: USD (eop) ,7 Exchange rate: USD (aop) ,66 Stock market index: ISE1 (eop) 85,71 71,77 78,139 11,1 (Sep. 4 th ) f: NBG forecasts; a: months of imports of GNFS; b: interest plus medium and long-term repayments; *: Overnight borrowing rate until April 9 and 1-week repo rate until September 11 NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Market Research 1

3 Macroeconomic & Financial Indicators Update Q3:17 ROMANIA f 18f Nominal GDP (EUR million) 15,446 16,68 169,7 178,68 19,73 GDP per capita (EUR) 7,511 8,3 8,497 8,96 9,579 GDP growth (real, %) Unemployment rate(ilo definition, %, aop) Inflation (%, eop) Inflation (%, aop) Loans to the Private Sector (% change, eop) (July, y-o-y %) Customer Deposits (% change, eop) (July, y-o-y %) Loans to the Private Sector (% of GDP) (July) Retail Loans (% of GDP) (July) Corporate Loans (% of GDP) (July) Customer Deposits (% of GDP) (July) Loans to Private Sector (% of Deposits) (July) Foreign Currency Loans (% of Total Loans) (July) Merchandise exports (EUR million) 46,814 49,99 5,171 57,388 6,66 Merchandise imports (EUR million) 53,351 56,894 61,45 68,796 75,951 Trade balance (EUR million) -6,537-7,795-9,54-11,48-13,685 Trade balance (% of GDP) Current account balance (EUR million) -1,1-1,978-3,966-5,688-6,936 Current account balance (% of GDP) Net FDI (EUR million),75,956 3,917 4,15 4,416 Net FDI (% of GDP) International reserves (EUR million) 3,16 3,38 34,4 33,568 31,73 International reserves (Months a ) Primary balance (% of GDP) Fiscal balance (% of GDP) Gross public debt * (% of GDP) b Gross external debt (EUR million) 94,744 9,434 9,377 93,45 93,84 Gross external debt (% of GDP) External debt service (EUR million) 4,13 5,335 19,5,5,8 External debt service (% of reserves) External debt service (% of exports) Policy rate (1-w repo rate, %, eop) Policy rate (1-w repo rate, %, aop) Y T-bill rate (%. eop) Spread of the 4 Eurobond ** (bps, eop) (Sep. 4 th ) Exchange rate: EUR (eop) Exchange rate: EUR (aop) Stock market index: BET-BK (eop) 1,38 1,34 1,344 1,634 (Sep. 4 th ) f: NBG forecasts; a: months of imports of GNFS; *: incl. guaranteed debt; **: 1 Eurobond until Eurobond until 11 NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Market Research

4 Macroeconomic & Financial Indicators Update Q3:17 BULGARIA f 18f Nominal GDP (EUR million) 4,76 45,89 47,364 49,83 51,97 GDP per capita (EUR) 5,935 6,33 6,667 7,59 7,49 GDP growth (real, %) Unemployment rate(ilo definition, %, aop) Inflation (%, eop) Inflation (%, aop) Loans to the Private Sector (% change, eop) (July y-o-y %) Customer Deposits (% change, eop) (July y-o-y %) Loans to the Private Sector (% of GDP) (July) Retail Loans (% of GDP) (July) Corporate Loans (% of GDP) (March) Customer Deposits (% of GDP) (July) Loans to Private Sector (% of Deposits) (July) Foreign Currency Loans (% of Total Loans) (July) Merchandise exports (EUR million) 1,6 1,919,556 5,713 7,56 Merchandise imports (EUR million) 3,83 4,54 4,4 8,35 3,86 Trade balance (EUR million) -,777 -,6-1,845 -,591-3,3 Trade balance (% of GDP) Current account balance (EUR million),35 -,61 1,989 1,643 1,94 Current account balance (% of GDP) Net FDI (EUR million),88,388,53,53,755 Net FDI (% of GDP) International reserves (EUR million) 15,76 19,,475 3,41 5,419 International reserves (Months a ) Primary balance (% of GDP) Fiscal balance (% of GDP) Gross public debt * (% of GDP) Gross external debt (EUR million) 39,338 33,947 34,64 34,514 35,97 Gross external debt (% of GDP) External debt service (EUR million) 6,83 8,939 6,84 7,7 7, External debt service (% of reserves) External debt service (% of exports) Money Market Rate (1-M SOFIBOR, %, eop) Money Market Rate (1-M SOFIBOR, %, aop) Y Bond rate (%, eop) Spread of the Eurobond ** (bps, eop) (Sep. 4 th ) Exchange rate: EUR (eop) Exchange rate: EUR (aop) Stock market index: SOFIX (eop) (Sep. 4 th ) f: NBG forecasts; a: months of imports of GNFS; *: incl. guaranteeed debt; **: 13 Eurobond until Eurobond until 11 NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Market Research 3

5 Macroeconomic & Financial Indicators Update Q3:17 SERBIA f 18f Nominal GDP (EUR million) 33,354 33,5 34,144 36,674 39,395 GDP per capita (EUR) 4,677 4,74 4,83 5,1 5,619 GDP growth (real, %) Unemployment rate (%, aop) Inflation (%, eop) Inflation (%, aop) Loans to the Private Sector (% change, eop) (July, y-o-y %) Customer Deposits (% change, eop) (July, y-o-y %) Loans to the Private Sector (% of GDP) (July) Retail Loans (% of GDP) (July) Corporate Loans (% of GDP) (July) Customer Deposits (% of GDP) (July) Loans to Private Sector (% of Deposits) (July) Foreign Currency Loans (% of Total Loans) (July) Merchandise exports (EUR million) 1,641 11,357 1,73 13,64 14,713 Merchandise imports (EUR million) 14,75 15,35 16,9 17,39 18,644 Trade balance (EUR million) -4,111-3,993-3,476-3,768-3,931 Trade balance (% of GDP ) Current account balance (EUR million) -1,985-1,577-1,37-1,571-1,664 Current account balance (% of GDP ) Net FDI (EUR million) 1,36 1,84 1,861 1,917 1,936 Net FDI (% of GDP ) International reserves (EUR million) 9,97 1,378 1,5 1,19 1,84 International reserves (Months a ) Primary balance (% of GDP) Fiscal balance (% of GDP) Gross public debt (% of GDP) Gross external debt (EUR million) 5,679 6,34 6,59 7,4 7,53 Gross external debt (% of GDP) External debt service (EUR million) 4,836 4,76 4,71 4,658 4,688 External debt service (% of reserves) External debt service (% of exports) Policy rate (-w repo rate, %, eop) Policy rate (-w repo rate, %, aop) M T-bill rate (%, eop) Spread of the 4 Eurobond (bps, eop) (Sep. 4 th ) Exchange rate: EUR (eop) Exchange rate: EUR (aop) Stock market index: BELEX 15 (eop) (Sep. 4 th ) f: NBG forecasts; a: months of imports of GNFS NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Market Research 4

6 Macroeconomic & Financial Indicators Update Q3:17 F.Y.R.O.M f 18f Nominal GDP (EUR million) 8,67 9,17 9,893 1, 1,738 GDP per capita (EUR) 4,16 4,397 4,77 4,914 5,167 GDP growth (real, %) Unemployment rate (%, aop) Inflation (%, eop) Inflation (%, aop) Loans to the Private Sector (% change, eop) (July, y-o-y %) Customer Deposits (% change, eop) (July, y-o-y %) Loans to the Private Sector (% of GDP) (July) Retail Loans (% of GDP) (July) Corporate Loans (% of GDP) (July) Customer Deposits (% of GDP) (July) Loans to Private Sector (% of Deposits) (July) Foreign Currency Loans (% of Total Loans) (July) Merchandise exports (EUR million),784 3,41 3,391 3,653 3,885 Merchandise imports (EUR million) 4,64 4,867 5,45 5,53 5,839 Trade balance (EUR million) -1,856-1,87-1,854-1,879-1,954 Trade balance (% of GDP) Current account balance (EUR million) -,43 -,187 -,33 -,8 -,8 Current account balance (% of GDP) Net FDI (EUR million),197,3,354,65,9 Net FDI (% of GDP) International reserves (EUR million),436,6,613,513,473 International reserves (Months a ) Primary balance (% of GDP) Fiscal balance (% of GDP) Gross public debt (% of GDP) Gross external debt (EUR million) 5,99 6,91 7,53 7,6 8, Gross external debt (% of GDP) External debt service (EUR million) 1,598 1,949 1,733 1,66 1,77 External debt service (% of reserves) External debt service (% of exports) d CB bill rate (%, eop) d CB bill rate (%, aop) M T-bill rate (%, eop) Spread of the 1 Eurobond (bps, eop) (Sep. 4 th ) Exchange rate: EUR (eop) Exchange rate: EUR (aop) Stock market index: MBI 1 (eop) 1,844 1,833,135,637 (Sep. 4 th ) f: NBG forecasts; a: months of imports of GNFS NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Market Research 5

7 Macroeconomic & Financial Indicators Update Q3:17 ALBANIA f 18f Nominal GDP (EUR million) 9,98 1,34 1,744 11,7 1,787 GDP per capita (EUR) 3,449 3,54 3,7 4,58 4,439 GDP growth (real, %) Unemployment rate (%, aop) Inflation (%, eop) Inflation (%, aop) Loans to the Private Sector (% change, eop) (July, y-o-y %) Customer Deposits (% change, eop) (July, y-o-y %) Loans to the Private Sector (% of GDP) (July) Retail Loans (% of GDP) (July) Corporate Loans (% of GDP) (July) Customer Deposits (% of GDP) (July) Loans to Private Sector (% of Deposits) (July) Foreign Currency Loans (% of Total Loans) (July) a Merchandise exports (EUR million),93,771,714,735,765 Merchandise imports (EUR million) 3,147 3,7 3,317 3,64 3,769 Trade balance (EUR million) -,16 -,99 -,63 -,96-3,4 Trade balance (% of GDP) Current account balance (EUR million) -1,87-1,15-1,3-1,8-1,317 Current account balance (% of GDP) Net FDI (EUR million),81,818,958 1,6 1,6 Net FDI (% of GDP) International reserves (EUR million),19,88,945 3,3 3,68 International reserves (Months b ) Primary balance (% of GDP) Fiscal balance (% of GDP) Gross public debt (% of GDP) Gross external debt (EUR million) 6,97 7,634 7,86 8,6 8,6 Gross external debt (% of GDP) External debt service (EUR million),168,548,7,85,3 External debt service (% of reserves) External debt service (% of exports) Policy rate (1-week repo rate, %, eop) Policy rate (1-week repo rate, %, aop) Y T-bill rate (%, eop) Spread of the Eurobond * (bps, eop) (Sep. 4 th ) Exchange rate: EUR (eop) Exchange rate: EUR (aop) Stock market index (eop) f: NBG forecasts; a: actual figures according to the IMF-BPM6; b: months of imports of GNFS; *: 15 Eurobond until 14 NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Market Research 6

8 Macroeconomic & Financial Indicators Update Q3:17 CYPRUS f 18f Nominal GDP (EUR million) 17,568 17,637 17,91 18,695 19,411 GDP per capita (EUR),476,83 1,11 1,916,63 GDP growth (real, %) Unemployment rate (%, aop) Inflation (%, eop) Inflation (%, aop) Loans to the Private Sector (% change, eop) (July, y-o-y %) Customer Deposits (% change, eop) (July, y-o-y %) Loans to the Private Sector (% of GDP) (July) Retail Loans (% of GDP) (July) Corporate Loans (% of GDP) (July) Customer Deposits (% of GDP) (July) Loans to Private Sector (% of Deposits) (July) Foreign Currency Loans (% of Total Loans) Merchandise exports (EUR million),88,48,44,48,45 Merchandise imports (EUR million) 5,619 5,649 6,86 6,56 6,636 Trade balance (EUR million) -,81-3,167-3,846-4,79-4,184 Trade balance (% of GDP) Current account balance (EUR million) -,761 -,514 -,94-1,16-1,13 Current account balance (% of GDP) Net FDI (EUR million) 1,397-8,58-1,37,5 3,5 Net FDI (% of GDP) International reserves (EUR million) International reserves (Months a ) Primary balance (% of GDP) Fiscal balance (% of GDP) Gross public debt (% of GDP) Gross external debt (EUR million) 97,69 97,8 16,91 11,41 113,41 Gross external debt (% of GDP) External debt service (EUR million) External debt service (% of reserves) External debt service (% of exports) Policy rate b (ECB refinancing rate, %, eop) Policy rate b (ECB refinancing rate, %, aop) Y T-bill rate (%, eop) Spread of the Eurobond (bps, eop) (Sep. 4 th ) Exchange rate: USD (eop) Exchange rate: USD (aop) Stock market index: CSE (eop) (Sep. 4 th ) f: NBG forecasts; a: months of imports of GNFS; b: not effective since September 11 NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Market Research 7

9 Macroeconomic & Financial Indicators Update Q3:17 EGYPT 13/14* 14/15* 15/16* 16/17*e 17/18*f Nominal GDP (EUR million) 3,3 76,4 38,799,318,597 GDP per capita (EUR),576 3,14 3,43,49,337 GDP growth (real, %) Unemployment rate (%, aop) Inflation (%, eop) Inflation (%, aop) Loans to the Private Sector (% change, eop) (May, y-o-y %) Customer Deposits (% change, eop) (May, y-o-y %) Loans to the Private Sector (% of GDP) (May) Retail Loans (% of GDP) (May) Corporate Loans (% of GDP) (May) Customer Deposits (% of GDP) (May) Loans to Private Sector (% of Deposits) (May) Foreign Currency Loans (% of Total Loans) (May) Merchandise exports (USD million) 6,119,58 18,75 1,5 3, Merchandise imports (USD million) 59,8 6,844 56,311 55,5 58,5 Trade balance (USD million) -33,681-38,785-37,66-34, -35,3 Trade balance (% of GDP) Current account balance (USD million) -,4-1,18-18,659-14,5-13, Current account balance (% of GDP) Net FDI (USD million) 3,793 6,148 6,674 9, 1,5 Net FDI (% of GDP) International reserves (USD million) 16,678,8 17,546 31,35 35,6 International reserves (Months a ) Primary balance (% of GDP) Fiscal balance (% of GDP) Gross public debt (% of GDP) Gross external debt (USD million) 46,67 48,63 57,1 76,1 81,64 Gross external debt (% of GDP) External debt service b (USD million) 3,4 5,574 5,97 5,899 6,489 External debt service b (% of reserves) External debt service (% of exports c ) Policy rate (O/N lending rate, %, eop) Policy rate (O/N lending rate, %, aop) M T-bill rate (%, eop) Spread of the Eurobond (bps, eop) (Sep. 4 th ) Exchange rate: USD (eop) Exchange rate: USD (aop) Stock market index: HERMES (eop) ,1 (Sep. 4 th ) *: fiscal year starting in July and ending in June; e: NBG estimates; f: NBG forecasts; a: months of imports of GNFS NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Market Research 8