Mortgage Availability Index Andy Groves Senior Associate Director

Transcription

1 Mortgage Availability Index Andy Groves Senior Associate Director

2 Mortgage Availability Index The concept Scope, data and context Where have sales (mortgages) fallen most? Where is the supply? Does supply correlate with mortgage availability? Conclusions

3 The Concept Why do builders build? demand for product planning certainty Now lending availability is also critical for developer funding for purchasers to buy

4 The Concept SHLAAs identify supply and test viability developer input Could mortgage rationing hold up viable sites? builder and purchaser demand but no funding Where are mortgages hardest to get?

5 Hypothesis: Spatial element to reduced lending which could affect delivery 2 Potential home buyers: A: B: 30% deposit Secure employment Good credit Low risk location Low deposit Less secure employment Harder lending criteria Affordability = lower price and therefore riskier locations Personal and spatial lending issues Buyer and builder willing but banks are not Lending is the issue not the viability

6 Outcomes? Riskier sites (locations) can t get started Builders stop trying (unless public funding) Lower risk purchasers go to popular areas (price falls & mortgages) Builders follow them But are there any sites?

7 Scope of Work 2 Questions: a. How much of supply is at lending risk? b. What are policy implications, if any? Today = early data findings

8 Any study is only as good as the data. Demand: Central data challenge commercial lending criteria data not available. Therefore we need a proxy measure/s: Core measure - Change in transaction levels from peak to trough of market (source: Land Registry). Validation and testing - will be undertaken in final report using two supplementary approaches: JSA claimant data Additional cuts of transaction data at different spatial levels

9 Any study is only as good as the data. Supply Pipeline Currently have formatted SHLAA data for 8 of 12 LPAs Data cleansing underway for 2 LPAs Sourcing data for the remaining 2 LPAs SHLAA data = list of available sites the total of which outstrips the RSS allocation in each LPA

10 National Context North South Divide but narrow range Transaction levels fell in all regions by 50% or more Narrow range (16.5%) Assessing at regional level is too broad brush to fully analyse this phenomenon.

11 Regional Context Differences within LAs bigger than between them. Overall transaction levels fell by 38,500 (-66%) Falls occurred in all LPAs Three broad categories: Better than -62% -62% to -66% and -66% and worse Range for region is 15.5%

12 Regional Context Considered data at a range of spatial levels.. Falls occurred in 376 of 386 post code sectors Statistically concentrated with the range -51% to 80% accounting for 271 of 386 Sectors With those < -50 % accounting for 72% of all post code sectors.

13 Regional Context Considered data at a range of spatial levels.. Lower super output area is most fine grained spatial level Used as a squint test to validate findings Too fine grained to be statistically robust

14 Regional Context Considered data at a range of spatial levels.. Adopted post code sector as central data source

15 Average fall -66% Accounting for 174 of 386 post code sectors..

16 Demand

17 Market performance is spatial.. Sales holding up well in: Market towns: Alnwick Morpeth, east, west and south arc Tyne Valley Rural/semi rural: Teesdale & Weardale Stockton West/Darlington North East Inner urban affluence: Gosforth/Jesmond Durham City

18 Market performance is spatial.. Worryingly high sales falls in: Post-industrial River Corridors: Tyne Wear Tees Former mining areas: South East Northumberland North Durham East Durham Coalfield East Redcar and Cleveland

19 Supply

20 Supply Defined by SHLAAS Shows concentrations of supply SHLAA data not complete but we know the big picture

21 Mapping Supply and Demand

22 Mapping Supply and Demand at regional level is too broad brush to analyse this phenomenon. Without delving down to lower spatial levels.

23 But again the big picture is clear.

24 But again the big picture is clear. SHLAA sites correlate well with poorly performing mortgage availability areas

25 Local Authority Profiles

26 Building up the picture Just focussing on those for which we have data.

27 Conclusions and next steps

28 North Tyneside Supply spread across high and moderate risk areas Falls grouped along the river corridor Over half of deliverable (0-5 year) sites in susceptible locations Falls in excess of 66% All % of total PCS % 0-5 yrs 2,967 5,534 54% 6 yrs + 5,247 16, %

29 Newcastle Relatively low proportion in areas where mortgages hard to get Falls grouped along the river corridor Specific regeneration sites potentially affected Falls in excess of 66% All % of total PCS % 0-5 yrs 558 4,193 13% 6 yrs + 2,524 10, %

30 Gateshead Majority of supply in areas where mortgages are hard to get Falls grouped along the river corridor Prospects for delivery potentially severely affected Falls in excess of 66% All % of total PCS % 0-5 yrs 2,471 3,116 78% 6 yrs + 1,615 1,764 92%

31 South Tyneside Majority of supply in areas where mortgages are hard to get Falls grouped along the river corridor Prospects for delivery potentially severely affected Falls in excess of 66% All % of total PCS % 0-5 yrs 2,861 5,534 71% 6 yrs + 2,785 16, %

32 County Durham Fair concentration of supply in areas where mortgages are hard to get Grouped in Prudhoe to Blaydon arc and East Durham Coalfield Potential further analysis required of impact on Growth Point Falls in excess of 66% All % of total PCS % 0-5 yrs 3,057 6,908 44% 6 yrs + 5,711 11, %

33 Hartlepool Concentration of 0-5yr supply in areas where mortgages are hard to xget More peripheral 6yr+ sites appear to be much lower risk in the medium xterm Potential for further analysis around phasing Falls in excess of 66% All % of total PCS % 0-5 yrs % 6 yrs + 6,129 18, %

34 Stockton Falls concentrated in regeneration areas Potential for further analysis around phasing Falls in excess of 66% All % of total PCS % 0-5 yrs % 6 yrs + 1,200 5,504 22%

35 Middlesbrough Majority of supply in areas where mortgages are hard to get Prospects for delivery potentially severely affected Falls concentrated in regeneration areas Potential for further analysis around phasing Falls in excess of 66% All % of total PCS % 0-5 yrs 1,696 2,256 75% 6 yrs ,181 69%

36 Rolling this back up to the regional level Of the 8 LPAs for which we currently have SHLAA data: Falls in excess of 66% All % of total % 0-5 yrs 27,037 14, % 6 yrs + 68,028 26, % PCS 174

37 Where Next? Feedback on interim findings Finalise pilot study Key questions: Does the concept warrant further investigation? If so how and at what spatial level?

38 Mortgage Availability Index Andy Groves Senior Associate Director