Supplement to: Martin, Isaac W., and Jennifer M. Nations Taxation and Citizen Voice in School District Parcel Tax Elections.
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1 Supplement to: Martin, Isaac W., and Jennifer M. Nations Taxation and Citizen Voice in School District Parcel Tax Elections. Sociological Science 5: S1
2 Appendix to in School District Parcel Tax Elections Isaac William Martin Jennifer Nations Table A-1. Descriptive statistics for dependent variables, policy design features, and district-level covariates, in our sample of California parcel tax ballot measures All districts with more than one parcel tax measure All districts with at least one parcel tax measure Variable Mean Std. Dev. Mean Std. Dev. Ballot measure features Affirmative vote share (53.9 to 88.1) Measure passed? (1=yes) Indirect consultation (1= oversight board) Direct Consultation (1 = sunset within 5 ) Direct Consultation (1 = sunset after > 6 ) Rate of tax (log USD, 2.49 to 7.57) Continues previous tax increase (1=yes) Exempts elderly (1=yes) Black, as share of enrolled (0 to 44.6) Hispanic, as share of enrolled (0.6 to 77.7) District homeownership rate (35.7 to 92. 4) Log Per Capita Intergovernmental Revenue (0.01 to 1.23) N measures N districts sociological science S2 October 2018 Volume 5
3 Table A-2. Descriptive statistics for district covariates, over all with nonmissing observations, All districts with observed covariates All districts with at least one parcel tax measure All districts with more than one parcel tax measure Descriptive Statistic Mean S.D. Range Mean S.D. Range Mean S.D. Range Black, as share of enrolled Hispanic, as share of enrolled [0, 76.9] [0, 76.9] [0, 50.9] [0.3, 100] [0.7, 89.4] [0.6, 79.0] District homeownership rate [5.3, 100] [35.0, 94.6] [35.0, 92.4] Intergovernmental revenue, ln USD per capita [0, 4.80] [0, 2.38] [0, 1.39] Budget shortfall, sinh -1 USD [-5.87, 6.32] [-5.87, 6.32] [-5.23, 5.23] Enrollment, ln [1.39, 13.52] [3.40, 13.53] [3.40, 10.92] N districts N district observed 12,200 2,038 1,177 sociological science S3 October 2018 Volume 5
4 Table A-3. Affirmative vote share and passage rate as functions of ballot features and controls: Correlated random effects models, within-district components (N=236) Share of vote affirmative Passage Indirect Consultation, 1 = yes 3.71 (1.37)* 0.31 (0.09)** Direct Consultation, 1 = sunset within (1.74)** 0.32 (0.13)* Direct Consultation, 1 = sunset after > (1.65) 0.14 (0.12) Continues previous tax increase, 1 = yes, 5.79 (1.23)** 0.12 (0.10) Elderly Exemption, 1 = yes 2.96 (2.58) 0.44 (0.18)* Rate of tax, ln USD (1.94) (0.10)* Black, as share of enrolled 0.23 (0.23) 0.03 (0.02) Hispanic, as share of enrolled 0.20 (0.15) 0.01 (0.01) District homeownership rate 0.85 (0.21)** 0.06 (0.02)* Intergovernmental revenue, ln USD per 8.07 (4.18) 0.31 (0.25) capita Sample selection adjustment Estimated nonselection hazard (4.23) (0.30) Within-district R p-value: **.005 *.05 Models include year-specific intercepts and between-district components omitted from this table. sociological science S4 October 2018 Volume 5
5 Table A-4. Summary of coefficients and fit statistics from cross-sectional probit models of ballot selection used to predict non-selection hazard (N=14 models) Avg. Coeff. Std. Dev. Min Max Longitudinal component (de-meaned) Black, as share of enrolled Hispanic, as share of enrolled District homeownership rate Intergovernmental revenue, ln USD per capita Budget shortfall, sinh -1 USD Enrollment, ln Cross-sectional component (group mean) Black, as share of enrolled Hispanic, as share of enrolled District homeownership rate Intergovernmental revenue, ln USD per capita Budget shortfall, sinh -1 USD Enrollment, ln McKelvey and Zavoina s pseudo-r sociological science S5 October 2018 Volume 5
6 Table A-5. Affirmative vote share and passage rate as functions of ballot features and controls: Fixed effects models (N=236) Share of vote affirmative Passage Indirect Consultation, 1 = yes 3.62 (1.34)* 0.30 (0.09)** Direct Consultation, 1 = sunset within (1.71)** 0.28 (0.13)* Direct Consultation, 1 = sunset after > (1.66) 0.12 (0.12) Continues previous tax increase, 1 = yes, 5.61 (1.18)** 0.09 (0.09) Elderly Exemption, 1 = yes 2.98 (2.64) 0.44 (0.19)* Rate of tax, ln USD (1.87) (0.09)* Black, share of enrolled 0.39 (0.21) 0.05 (0.02)* Hispanic, share of enrolled 0.22 (0.14) 0.02 (0.01) District homeownership rate 0.64 (0.38)** 0.04 (0.02)* Intergovernmental revenue, ln USD per 8.45 (4.87) 0.32 (0.33) capita Within-district R p-value: **.005 *.05 Models include year-specific intercepts omitted from this table. sociological science S6 October 2018 Volume 5
7 Table A-6. Sensitivity analysis: Affirmative vote share and passage rate as functions of ballot features and controls including temporal sequence, fixed-effects models (N=236) Share of vote Passage affirmative Indirect Consultation, 1 = yes 3.54 (1.29)** 0.30 (0.09)** Direct Consultation, 1 = sunset within (1.77)** 0.29 (0.13)* Direct Consultation, 1 = sunset after > (1.70) 0.12 (0.12) Continues previous tax increase, 1 = yes, 5.53 (1.20)** 0.09 (0.09) Exempts elderly, 1 = yes 2.78 (2.59) 0.43 (0.18)* Rate of tax, ln USD (1.88) (0.10) First ballot measure in district, 1= yes (0.87)* (0.09) Black, share of enrolled 0.36 (0.20) 0.05 (0.02)* Hispanic, share of enrolled 0.17 (0.15) 0.02 (0.01) District homeownership rate 0.62 (.40) 0.04 (0.02)* Intergovernmental revenue, ln USD per capita 8.42 (4.91) 0.32 (0.32) Within R-sq p-value: **.005 *.05 Models include year-specific intercepts omitted from this table. sociological science S7 October 2018 Volume 5
8 Table A-7. Sensitivity analysis: Affirmative vote share and passage rate as functions of ballot features and controls including temporal sequence, correlated random-effects models, within-district components only (N=236) Share of vote affirmative Passage Indirect Consultation, 1 = yes 3.58 (1.34)** 0.31 (.09)** Direct Consultation, 1 = sunset 5.87 (1.78)** 0.32 (0.14)* within 5 Direct Consultation, 1 = sunset 1.54 (1.69) 0.14 (0.12) after > 6 Continues previous tax increase, 5.64 (1.25)** 0.12 (0.10) 1 = yes, Elderly Exemption, 1 = yes 2.81 (2.56) 0.43 (0.18)* Rate of tax, ln USD (1.96) (0.10)* Black, share of enrolled 0.21 (0.23) 0.03 (0.02) Hispanic, share of enrolled 0.17 (0.16) 0.01 (0.01) District homeownership rate 0.82 (.20)** 0.06 (0.02)* Intergovernmental revenue, ln USD per 8.28 (4.27) 0.32 (0.25) capita First district-year of proposed (0.85) (0.07) tax increase, 1= yes Sample selection adjustment Estimated nonselection hazard (4.09) (0.29) Within-district R p-value **.005 *.05 Models include year-specific intercepts and between-district components, omitted from this table. sociological science S8 October 2018 Volume 5
9 Table A-8. Passage rate as a function of ballot features and controls: Correlated random effects logistic regression model, within-district components only (N=229) Passage Indirect Consultation, 1 = yes 3.46 (1.26)* Direct Consultation, 1 = sunset within (1.54)* Direct Consultation, 1 = sunset after > (1.16) Continues previous tax increase, 1 = yes, 1.55 (0.88) Elderly exemption, 1 = yes 6.07 (2.10)** Rate of tax, ln USD (1.00)* Black, as share of enrolled 0.55 (0.30) Hispanic, as share of enrolled 0.16 (0.09) District homeownership rate 0.63 (0.54)* Intergovernmental revenue, ln USD per 3.63 (3.41) capita p-value **.005 *.05 Models include year-specific intercepts omitted from this table. Seven observations for 1998 are perfectly predicted and are dropped from the model. sociological science S9 October 2018 Volume 5
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