GLOBAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT AND OUTLOOK

Transcription

1 1 Global Market Outlook Press Briefing GLOBAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT AND OUTLOOK Alan Levenson, Ph.D. Chief U.S. Economist November 1, 17 FOR 1 GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK PRESS BRIEFING. PROVIDED TO DESIGNATED MEMBERS OF THE PRESS ONLY, NOT FOR FURTHER DISTRIBUTION.

2 Global Economic Outlook Recap and Summary As of October 17, 17 Global growth accelerated last year, with a notable broadening of expansion. Output gaps are generally small and may shrink further as sturdy growth persists. Inflation is low but rising in advanced economies and among commodity importers, and monetary policy in these countries is generally turning toward less accommodation. Inflation is higher but falling among major commodity exporters, giving their central banks latitude to ease policy. U.S. fiscal policy, G3 central bank balance sheet adjustments, and China deleveraging will be key developments to watch.

3 Percent Change, Year Ago Broad Growth Acceleration in 17 As of June 3, 17 REAL GDP Commodity Exporters* - Commodity Importers** All Countries *Commodity importers: China, Euro area, India, Japan, South Korea, United Kingdom, and United States. **Commodity exporters: Australia, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, and South Africa. Sources: National statistics agencies, International Monetary Fund, and Haver Analytics; data analysis by T. Rowe Price. 3

4 Percent of Countries Growing Faster Than Potential Output Gaps Are Generally Closing As of June 3, 17 MOST COUNTRIES ARE GROWING ABOVE POTENTIAL Advanced Economies 1 Emerging Market/Developing Economies All Countries Dec-1 Dec-11 Dec-1 Dec-13 Dec-1 Dec-15 Dec-1 Sources: National statistics agencies, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and Haver Analytics; data analysis by T. Rowe Price.

5 Percent Change, Year Ago Low-flation Predominates in Advanced Economies As of September 3, 17 CONSUMER INFLATION EXCLUDING FOOD AND ENERGY* Canada Euro Area Japan United States *Consumer price indexes except PCE price index in the United States. Sources: National statistics agencies and Haver Analytics. 5

6 Percent but Unemployment Rates Are Low As of September 3, 17 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 1 1 Canada Euro Area Japan United States Sources: National statistical agencies and Haver Analytics.

7 Percent Tide is Turning Toward Higher G1 Rates As of October 7, 17 CENTRAL BANK POLICY RATES Canada Euro Area Japan United States Sources: National central banks and Haver Analytics. 7

8 Percent Percent Change, Year Ago Substantial Recovery Among EM Commodity Importers* As of August 31, 17 HISTORICALLY LOW UNEMPLOYMENT RATES Unemployment Rate As of September 3, 17 DRIVE TURNS IN INFLATION, MONETARY POLICY Core Inflation (L) Policy Rate (R) 7 Percent *EM commodity importers: China, Hungary, South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Taiwan, Thailand, and Turkey. Sources: National statistical agencies and central banks, and Haver Analytics; data analysis by T. Rowe Price.

9 Percent Percent Change, Year Ago EM Commodity Exporters* in Early Stage of Recovery As of September 3, 17 As of September 3, 17 SLACK AMONG COMMODITY IMPORTERS HELPS EASE INFLATION PRESSURES 1 Unemployment Rate 1 Core Inflation (L) Policy Rate (R) Percent *Commodity exporters: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Indonesia, Russia, and South Africa. Sources: National statistical agencies and central banks, and Haver Analytics; data analysis by T. Rowe Price. 9

10 US$ Billions Turning the Oil Tanker of Central Bank Liquidity As of October 31, 17 SECURITIES HOLDINGS OF G3 CENTRAL BANKS 1, U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Japan 1, European Central Bank November 17 December 1 Are Estimates 1,,,,, Sources: Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve Board, and Haver Analytics; data analysis by T. Rowe Price. 1

11 Percent EBIT/Net Interest Ratio Lingering Leverage Risks U.S. Nonfinancial Corporations As of June 3, 17 RISING INDEBTEDNESS OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS.9 Debt/GVA (L).5 Debt/EBIT (R) Ratio BUT AT LONGER MATURITIES 3 3 Short-Term Debt/Total Debt AND LOWER RATES Interest Coverage Ratio Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve, and Haver Analytics; data analysis by T. Rowe Price. 11

12 Three-Mo. Chg. in Three-Mo. Avg. (Pct. of GDP) Percent of GDP China: Pursuing Greater Financial Stability As of September 3, 17 DELEVERAGING FOCUS ON FINANCIALS SECTOR 5 New Credit Depository Survey As of August 1, 17 FISCAL BORROWING WILL SHARPEN CREDIT ALLOCATION - On-Budget General Gov't. Balance Augmented Balance and 1 Are Estimates Sources: China National Bureau of Statistics, People s Bank of China, International Monetary Fund, and Haver Analytics; data analysis by T. Rowe Price. 1

13 Global Economic Outlook Summary As of October 17, 17 Output gaps are generally small and may shrink further as sturdy growth persists. Inflation is low but rising in advanced economies and among commodity importers, and monetary policy in these countries is generally turning toward less accommodation. Inflation is higher but falling among major commodity exporters, giving their central banks latitude to ease policy. U.S. fiscal policy, G3 central bank balance sheet adjustments, and China deleveraging will be key developments to watch. 13

14 Important Information For 1 Global Market Outlook Press Briefing. Provided to designated members of the press only, not for further distribution. This material is being furnished for general informational purposes only. The material does not constitute or undertake to give advice of any nature, including fiduciary investment advice, and prospective investors are recommended to seek independent legal, financial and tax advice before making any investment decision. T. Rowe Price group of companies including T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. and/or its affiliates receive revenue from T. Rowe Price investment products and services. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of an investment and any income from it can go down as well as up. Investors may get back less than the amount invested. The material does not constitute a distribution, an offer, an invitation, a personal or general recommendation or solicitation to sell or buy any securities in any jurisdiction or to conduct any particular investment activity. The material has not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in any jurisdiction. Information and opinions presented have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable and current; however, we cannot guarantee the sources' accuracy or completeness. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. The views contained herein are as of the date noted on the material and are subject to change without notice; these views may differ from those of other T. Rowe Price group companies and/or associates. Under no circumstances should the material, in whole or in part, be copied or redistributed without consent from T. Rowe Price. The material is not intended for use by persons in jurisdictions which prohibit or restrict the distribution of the material and in certain countries the material is provided upon specific request. USA Issued in the USA by T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc., and T. Rowe Price Investment Services, Inc., 1 East Pratt Street, Baltimore, MD 1. Unless otherwise stated, this material issued outside of USA by T. Rowe Price International Ltd, Queen Victoria Street, London ECN TZ which is authorized and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. T. ROWE PRICE, INVEST WITH CONFIDENCE and the Bighorn Sheep design are, collectively and/or apart, trademarks or registered trademarks of T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. All rights reserved

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