Fixed Income Opportunities in Emerging Markets
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1 Fixed Income Opportunities in Emerging Markets Hemant Baijal Portfolio Manager September 7, OppenheimerFunds, Inc. All rights reserved., 225 Liberty Street, New York, NY
2 Local vs. Hard Currency : Distinct Asset Classes Traditionally the EM opportunity was in USD denominated debt (hard currency) US Duration + Credit Spread Since the turn of the century EM Local debt has grown exponentially due to economic development and improved fiscal and monetary policies Local Duration + Currency Subject to change. There can be no assurance that any inv estment process or strategy will achiev e its inv estment objectiv e.
3 Local vs. Hard Currency : Different Return Drivers EM Hard (Government and Corporate) EM Local Government Return Drivers Risk Factors Associated Characteristics US duration Credit Carry and spread change debt ratio, industry trends Correlation to US HY Credit deterioration / governance Long duration profile Potential asset/liability mismatch Most inclusive of Frontier Markets; Diverse opportunity set Least volatile type of EM debt Current spreads are tight vs history Local duration (carry) and Term Premia Local interest rate movements Fiscal and Monetary policies Local currency carry and directionality Currency volatility Local Inflation, monetary policy, fiscal policy Capital controls Least credit risk within EM debt Most liquid amongst EM debt assets within a rapidly growing market Amongst the highest-yielding assets in EM debt Subject to change. There can be no assurance that any inv estment process or strategy will achiev e its inv estment objectiv e.
4 Value of Active Management in EM Debt JPMorgan GBI-EM Global Diversified Index Total Return (%) Carry (%) Capital Gains Local Duration (%) FX (%) (5.2) (14.5) (1.8) (9.4) (9.0) 6.3 (6.3) (8.7) 2014 (5.7) (12.8) 2015 (14.9) 6.4 (3.0) (17.6) Average (2.6) Source: OFI Global, Bloomberg and JPMorgan, as of 12/31/16
5 Real Yields are Positive as Inflation has Come Down resulting in favorable monetary policy cycle Consumer Price Index by Country (YoY % Change) Average ( ) Current Average Real Yields of EM 10-Year Bonds India China Russia Brazil Indonesia Source: Bloomberg, 2/28/17. Countries included in the average real yield calculations are India, Russia, China, Mexico, Indonesia, Turkey and Brazil. Real Yields are the nominal yield of a country s sovereign bond minus the year-over-year change in their respective consumer price index.
6 EM Local Provides the Best Opportunity Base Case: world growth to remain above recent trend, led by Europe, Japan and turnaround in various EM countries Risks: material widening of the US budget deficit and over tightening of monetary policy in China Rates FX Credit Low: in Developed Markets (likely going higher High: in Emerging Markets (likely going lower) USD has most likely peaked EM currencies are cheap Expensive, particularly in the US Selective opportunities in Emerging Markets Subject to change. There can be no assurance that any inv estment process or strategy will achiev e its inv estment objectiv e.
7
8 General Disclaimer The v iews presented in this document represent the opinions of OFI Global Asset Management ( OFI Global ) and are not intended as and should not be relied upon as recommendations, inv estment adv ice, an indication of trading intent or holdings, or to predict or depict the perf ormance of any inv estment. These v iews are based on the inf ormation av ailable as of the date noted and are subject to change at any time based on subsequent dev elopments. OFI Global disclaims any responsibility to update such v iews. No f orecasts can be guaranteed. The inf ormation contained herein is deemed to be f rom reliable sources; howev er, OFI Global does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Perf ormance data shown represents past perf ormance and is no guarantee of f uture results. Nothing in this document is intended to constitute an of f er or solicitation to sell or a solicitation of an of f er to buy any product or serv ice (nor shall any product or serv ice be of f ered or sold to any person) in any jurisdiction in which either (a) OFI Global is not licensed to conduct business, and/or (b) an of f er, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unav ailable or unlawf ul. Special Risks: Fixed income inv esting entails credit and interest rate risks. Interest rate risk is the risk that rising interest rates or an expectation of rising interest rates in the near f uture, will cause the v alue of the portf olio s inv estments to decline. Risks associated with rising interest rates are heightened giv en that rates in the U. S. are at or near historic lows. When interest rates rise, bond prices generally f all, and the v alue of the portf olio can f all. Below-inv estment-grade ( high y ield or junk ) bonds are more at risk of def ault and are subject to liquidity risk. Foreign inv estments may be v olatile and inv olv e additional expenses and special risks, including currency f luctuations, foreign taxes, regulatory and geopolitical risks. Emerging and dev eloping market inv estments may be especially v olatile. May invest at least 80% of its net assets in debt securities that are economically tied to emerging market countries and denominated in local (non-u.s.) currencies. Eurozone inv estments may be subject to v olatility and liquidity issues. The portf olio may inv est a signif icant portion of assets in a single issuer, which may increase v olatility and exposure to risks associated with a single issuer. Deriv ativ e instruments entail higher v olatility and risk of loss compared to traditional stock or bond inv estments. OFI Global Asset Management ("OFI Global") consists of OppenheimerFunds, Inc. and certain of its adv isory subsidiaries, including OFI Global Asset Management, Inc., OFI Global Institutional Inc., OFI SteelPath, OFI Global Trust Company and VTL Associates. The f irm of f ers a f ull range of inv estment solutions across equity, f ixed income and alternativ e asset classes. The v iews herein represent the opinions of OFI Global and are subject to change based on subsequent dev elopments. They are not intended as inv estment adv ice or to predict or depict the perf ormance of any inv estment. The material contained herein is not intended to prov ide, and should not be relied on f or, inv estment, accounting, legal or tax adv ice. Further, this material does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. No of f er or solicitation f or the sale of any security or f inancial instrument is made hereby DISCLAIMER FOR NON-U.S. CLIENTS: Prospectiv e clients should inf orm themselv es as to the legal requirements and tax consequences within the countries of their citizenship, residence, domicile and place of business with respect to the purchase and ongoing prov ision of adv isory services. OFI Global is not registered in any jurisdiction outside the United States, and no regulator or gov ernment authority has rev iewed this document or the merits of the products and serv ices ref erenced herein. This document is directed at and intended f or institutional inv estors (as such term is def ined in v arious jurisdictions). This document is prov ided on a conf idential basis and, where required by local law, at the request of the recipient. This document may not be reproduced in any f orm or transmitted to any person without authorization from OFI Global. By accepting a copy of this document, y ou agree (a) to keep the inf ormation contained herein (the Inf ormation ) conf idential, (b) not to use the Inf ormation f or any purpose other than to ev aluate a potential inv estment in any product described herein, and (c) not to distribute the Inf ormation to any person other than persons within y our organization or to y our client that has engaged y ou t o ev aluate an inv estment in such product. FOR PERSONS DOMICILED IN AUSTRALIA: In addition to the General Disclaimer and Disclaimer f or non-u.s. Clients, please note the f ollowing: OFI Global Institutional, Inc. is exempt f rom the requirement to hold an Australian f inancial serv ices license under the Corporations Act 2001 (the Act ). OFI Global Institutional, Inc. is regulated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission under U.S. laws, which dif f er f rom Australian laws. This publication is only made av ailable to persons who are wholesale clients within the meaning of section 761G of the Act. This publication is supplied on the condition that it is not passed on to any person who is a retail client within the m eaning of section 761G of the Act. The material contained herein is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. OFI Global Asset Management, 225 Liberty Street, New York, NY OppenheimerFunds, Inc. All rights reserved. IN
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