Morgonmötet 11 januari 2016

Transcription

1 Trading Strategy Morgonmötet 11 januari 2016 Claes Måhlén, +46 (0) , Pierre Carlsson, +46 (0) , Andreas Skogelid, +46 (0) ,

2 Nyheter Kina: KPI steg 1,6% yoy och PPI sjönk 5,9% yoy i december. Båda utfallen var i linje med förväntningar Fed: Williams (icke röstande duva) menar att det tar minst tre år för räntan att nå stabil nivå mellan 3-3,5% och sex år för balansräkningen att normaliseras (via förfall) DI Debatt: Magdalena Andersson uppmanar till ökat samarbete över blockgränser 2

3 Det hände förra veckan Data (vs expectations) USA Better: ADP, trade balance, payrolls In line: Factory orders, unemployment rate Worse: ISM, hourly wages EMU Better: EC confidence, unemployment rate, German factory orders, German trade balance In line: PMI Worse: CPI, retail sales UK In line: PMI services, trade balance Worse: PMI manufacturin Sweden Better: industrial production, PMI Lower: Service production Centralbanks etc. Fed Minutes: Several members expressed concern over low Inflation Fed: Fischer, Mester and Williams is comfortable with four hikes this year while Evans urges caution China: State-controlled funds bought equities to support the stock market. PBOC inject liquidity. Riksbank: The Executive Board gave Ingves and af Jochnick the task of deciding the details with regard to possible interventions World Bank: 2016 World GDP growth is cut to 2.9% from 3.3% Saudia Arabia: Cut ties with Iran Norway Worse: industrial production, PMI, credit indicator growth China Worse: Caixin PMI, foreign reserves 3

4 USA i fredags: Payrolls högre Total employment +292K (exp 200K) from 252K (R: 211K) Private employment + 275K (200K) from 240K (R: 197K) Unemployment rate at 5.0% 4

5 USA i fredags: Fortsatt svag lönetillväxt Wages exp: 0.0/2.5% vs exp 0.2/2.8% mom/yoy (Nov 0.2/2.3) 5

6 Marknaden Last week Equities: Ner Rates: Ner FX: JPY vinnare, GBP förlorare Commodities: Olja ner Since Friday 16:15 Equities: Lägre Rates: Något lägre FX: JPY starkare Commodities: Olja lägre Marknadsinformation Latest % vs 16:15, (08-jan) % vs 16:15, (01-jan) EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/CHF EUR/NOK USD/NOK EUR/SEK USD/SEK AUD/USD USD/CAD NZD/USD S&P500 future Oil prices (Brent) Gold spot Wheat bp vs 16:15, bp vs 16:15, Latest (08-jan) (01-jan) US 2y US 10y US 30y German 2y German 10y Sw eden 2y Sw eden 10y Itraxx Senior Financials

7 S&P500 future och US10y 7

8 Yuan: Onshore och offshore 8

9 Fed och börsen 9

10 Oljepris och USD 5y5yf 10

11 Handelviktad USD, CNY och EUR 11

12 Det händer i veckan US NFIB, JOLTS (Tuesday) PPI, NY Fed, Industrial production (Friday) Retail sales, Michigan confidence (Friday) EMU Sentix investor confidence 10:30 German 2015 GDP (Tusesday) Industrial production (Wednesday) New Car Registrations, Trade balance(friday) UK BRC Like-For-like, IP (Tuesday) Sweden Budget balance (Tuesday) Foreign holding (Wednesday) CPI (Thursday) HOX, Household Consumption (Friday) Norway CPI/PPI 10:00 Trade balance (Friday) Fed Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey 16:30 Fed Beige Book (Wednesday) Lockhart, Kaplan 18:40, 23:50 Lacker (Tuesday) Rosengren, Evans (Wednesday) Bullard (Thursday) Dudley (Friday) ECB December minutes BoE Rate decision Unch expected (Thursday) (Thursday) Auctions USD 24 Bln 3y, 10y, 20y (Tue-Fri) German 10y (Tuesday) GBP 30y (Tuesday) SEK Apr, Jun T-bills (Wednesday) NOK Bond (Wednesday) S&P500 earnings season starts Expected at -5.5% yoy for Q4 (Mon) 12

13 USA (tisdag, fredag): Confidence sidledes Consumer confidence exp at 92.6 in Jan (unch) NFIB exp at 95.0 vs

14 USA (fredag): Detaljhandel spås högre i december Retail sales exp 0.1% mom in Dec from 0.2% Ex. auto exp 0.2% mom in Dec from 0.4% Ex. auto & gas exp 0.3% mom in Dec from 0.5% 14

15 Sverige (torsdag): Inflation under Riksbankens bana December inflation CPI 0.25%/0.16% (mom/yoy) CPIF 0.29%/1.02% (mom/yoy) Consensus CPI 0.2%/0.1% (mom/yoy) CPIF 0.2%/1.0% (mom/yoy) Riksbank 15 CPI 0.26% (yoy) CPIF 1.09% (yoy) Forecast Weight Contribution Group m-o-m (%) (%) % points Food Clothing Petrol Communication Audio Package tours Rent Mortgage interest costs Electricity Other Total above

16 Sverige: KPIF och konsensusprognoser 16

17 Norge (10:00): KPI lägre och KPI-JTE stilla 17 CPI exp at -0.2/2.6% mom/yoy CPI-ATE exp at 0.0/3.2% mom/yoy (Consensus: /3.1%) Norges bank CPI-ATE fct: /3.0%

18 Disclaimer Research Disclaimers Handelsbanken Capital Markets, a div ision of Sv enska Handelsbanken AB (publ) (collectiv ely ref erred to herein as SHB ), is responsible f or the preparation of research reports. SHB is regulated in Sweden by the Swedish Financial Superv isory Authority, in Norway by the Financial Superv isory Authority of Norway, in Finland by the Financial Superv isory of Finland and in Denmark by the Danish Financial Superv isory Authority. All research reports are prepared f rom trade and statistical serv ices and other inf ormation that SHB considers to be reliable. SHB has not independently v erif ied such inf ormation and does not represent that such inf ormation is true, accurate or complete. Accordingly, to the extent permitted by law, neither SHB, nor any of its directors, of f icers or employ ees, nor any other person, accept any liability whatsoev er f or any loss, howev er it arises, f rom any use of such research reports or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. This report has not been giv en to the subject company, or any other external party, prior to publication to approv al the accuracy of the f acts presented. The subject company has not been notif ied of the recommendation, target price or estimate changes, as stated in this report, prior to publication. In no ev ent will SHB or any of its af f iliates, their of ficers, directors or employ ees be liable to any person f or any direct, indirect, special or consequential damages arising out of any use of the inf ormation contained in the research reports, including without limitation any lost prof its ev en if SHB is expressly adv ised of the poss ibility or likelihood of such damages. The v iews contained in SHB research reports are the opinions of employ ees of SHB and its af f iliates and accurately ref lect the personal v iews of the respectiv e analy sts at this date and are subject to change. There can be no assurance that f uture ev ents will be consistent with any such opinions. Each analy st identif ied in this research report also certif ies that the opinions expressed herein and attributed to such analy st accurately ref lect his or her indiv idual v iews about the companies or securities discussed in the research report. Research reports are prepared by SHB f or inf ormation purposes only. The inf ormation in the research reports does not constitute a personal recommendation or personalised inv estment adv ice and such reports or opinions should not be the basis f or making inv estment or strategic decisions. This document does not constitute or f orm part of any of f er f or sale or subscription of or solicitation of any of f er to buy or subscribe f or any securities nor shall it or any part of it f orm the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoev er. Past perf ormance may not be repeated and should not be seen as an indication of f uture perf ormance. The v alue of inv estments and the income f rom them may go down as well as up and inv estors may f orf eit all principal originally inv ested. Inv estors are not guaranteed to make prof its on inv estments and may lose money. Exchange rates may cause the v alue of ov erseas inv estments and the income arising f rom them to rise or f all. This research product will be updated on a regular basis. No part of SHB research reports may be reproduced or distributed to any other person without the prior written consent of SHB. The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should inf orm themselv es about, and observ e, any such restrictions. Please be advised of the following important research disclosure statements: SHB employ ees, including analy sts, receiv e compensation that is generated by ov erall f irm prof itability. Analy st compensation is not based on specif ic corporate f inance or debt capital markets serv ices. No part of analy sts compensation has been, is or will be directly or indirectly related to specif ic recommendations or v iews express ed within research reports. From time to time, SHB and/or its af f iliates may prov ide inv estment banking and other serv ices, including corporate banking s erv ices and securities adv ice, to any of the companies mentioned in our research. We may act as adv iser and/or broker to any of the companies mentioned in our research. SHB may also seek corporate f inance as signments with such companies. We buy and sell securities mentioned in our research f rom customers on a principal basis. Accordingly, we may at any time hav e a long or short position in any such securities. We may also make a market in the securities of all the companies mentioned in this report. [Further inf ormation and relev ant disclosures are contained wit hin our research reports.] SHB, its af f iliates, their clients, of ficers, directors or employ ees may own or hav e positions in securities mentioned in res earch reports. According to the Bank s Ethical Guidelines f or the Handelsbanken Group, the board and all employ ees of the Bank must observ e high standards of ethics in carry ing out their responsibilities at the Bank, as well as other assignments. The Bank has also adopted Guidelines concerning Research which are intended to ensure the integrity and independence of research analy sts and the research department, as well as to identif y actual or potential conf licts of interests relating to analy sts or the Bank and to resolv e any such conf licts by eliminating or mitigating them and/or making such disclosures as may be appropriate. As part of its control of conf licts of interests, the Bank has introduced restrictions ( Inf ormation barriers ) on communications bet ween the Research department and other departments of the Bank. In addition, in the Bank s organisational structure, the Research department is kept separate f rom the Corporate Finance department and other departments with similar remits. The Guidelines concerning Research also include regulations f or how pay ments, bonuses and salaries may be paid out to analy sts, what marketing activ ities an analy st may part icipate in, how analy sts are to handle their own securities transactions and those of closely related persons, etc. In addition, there are restrictions in communications between analy sts and the subject company. For f ull inf ormation on the Bank s ethical guidelines please see the Bank s website the bank/inv estor relations/corporate social responsibility /Ethical guidelines. Handelsbanken has a ZERO tolerance of bribery and corruption. This is established in the Bank s Group Policy on Bribery and C orruption. The prohibition against bribery also includes the soliciting, arranging or accepting bribes intended f or the employ ee s f amily, f riends, associates or acquaintances. For company -specif ic disclosure texts, please consult the Handelsbanken Capital Markets website: When distributed in the UK Research reports are distributed in the UK by SHB. SHB is authorised by the Swedish Financial Superv isory Authority (Finansinspektionen) and the Prudential Regulation Authority and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our authorisation and regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority, and regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority are av ailable f rom us on request. UK customers should note that neither the UK Financial Serv ices Compensation Scheme f or inv estment business nor the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority made under the UK Financial Serv ices and Markets Act 2000 (as amended) f or the protection of priv ate customers apply to this research report and accordingly UK custom ers will not be protected by that scheme. This document may be distributed in the United Kingdom only to persons who are authorised or exempted persons within the meaning of the Financial Serv ices and Markets Act 2000 (as amended) (or any order made thereunder) or (i) to persons who hav e prof essional experience in matters relating to inv estments f alling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Serv ices and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the Order ), (ii) to high net worth entities f alling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Order or (iii) to persons who are prof essional clients under Chapter 3 of the Financial Conduct Authority Conduct of Business Sourcebook (all such persons together being ref erred to as Relev ant Persons ). When Distributed in the United States Important Third-Party Research Disclosures: SHB and its employ ees are not subject to FINRA s research analy st rules which are intended to prev ent conf licts of interest by, among other things, prohibiting certain compensation practices, restricting trading by analy sts and restricting communications with the companies that are the subject of the research report. SHB research reports are intended f or distribution in the United States solely to major U.S. institutional inv estors, as def ined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of Each major U.S. institutional inv estor that receiv es a copy of research report by its acceptance hereof represents and agrees that it shall not distribute or prov ide research reports to any other person Reports regarding f ixed-income products are prepared by SHB and distributed by SHB to major U.S. institutional inv estors under R ule 15a-6(a)(2). Reports regarding equity products are prepared by SHB and distributed in the United States by Handelsbanken Markets Securities Inc. ( HMSI ) under Rule 15a-6(a)(2). When distributed by HMSI, HMSI takes responsibility f or the report. Any U.S. person receiv ing these research reports that desires to ef f ect transactions in any equity product discussed within the research reports should call or write HMSI. HMSI is a FINRA Member, telephone number ( ). 19