VISIO CAPITAL. GLOBAL HEALTHCARE: The next generation of investment opportunities?
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1 VISIO CAPITAL GLOBAL HEALTHCARE: The next generation of investment opportunities? Visio Salveo Global Healthcare Fund (USD Long / Short) Visio BCI Global Healthcare Fund (ZAR Long only) AFRICAN EAGLE OWL Bubo Africanus Exceptional vision and acute hearing play a major part in an owl s hunting technique. Couple these with powerful talons and beak, plus the ability to fly silently, and you have a formidable predator, using stealth to hunt down prey. Dr Mark Wadley Fund Manager JUNE
2 Fund Manager Dr Mark Wadley Studied medicine (University of the Witwatersrand) National Health Service in the UK (3 years) MBA at Cambridge University (UK) Business development role at Netcare UK (3 years) Credit Suisse sell-side equity analyst covering the EMEA healthcare sector (6 years) Visio Capital in 2014 as a Fund Manager and Research Analyst covering healthcare Launched Visio Salveo Healthcare fund in June 2014 Fund Manager/Analyst MBChB (Wits), MBA (Cambridge) Visio Capital was founded in 2003 Currently 13 investment professionals 2
3 Expenditure per Price Expenditure person health (GBP) (USD billions) 12 month trailing EPS Global Healthcare Overview (10months) Positive demand drivers: Ageing populations Growing disease burdens (lifestyle diseases, cancer) More money spent on older people Public and private sector expenditure Significant growth in expenditure Defensive sector? Demonstrates defensive earnings But price moves with macro and sentiment Chronic UK Public 9.1% MSCI health CAGR World vs disease private expenditure Healthcare growth progression healthcare in US by earnings price vs age healthcare MSCI expenditure also group World outstripped expenditure and MSCI MSCI Wos I ,000 3,500 Prevalence per 17% 1,000 members 8,000 India MSCI World Healthcare 7.9% 8.7% CAGR 3, GDP 500 3,000 MSCI World % 100 CAGR150 SA 7, High blood US pressure 4006,000 2, World High cholest erol 5,000 Switzerland 2, % ,000 Diabetes CAGR 300Poland 1, ,000 Ast hma UAE Saudi 2,000 Arabia 1,000 HIV ,000 Thyroid UK 5% disease GDP - 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Coronary Art ery Disease 27 - % of total 1960 health expenditure MSCI World Healthcare MSCI World MSCI World 2015 MSCI IT Epilepsy MSCI MSCI World World Healthcare Age Group MSCI World Public Private Source: Council Nuffield World Centres Bloomberg Bank, Trust for Medical Medicare 2014 data Schemes & Medicaid Services 3
4 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 Global Healthcare Overview (10months) Positive demand drivers: Ageing populations Growing disease burdens (lifestyle diseases, cancer) More money spent on older people Public and private sector expenditure Significant growth in expenditure Defensive sector? Demonstrates defensive earnings But price moves with macro and sentiment Negative risk factors: Public sector funding constraints and austerity Regulatory interventions Political agendas Geographic inequalities to access Impact of macro and political events Clinton tweet Source: Bloomberg Global rout Clinton leads polls Trump wins US Biotech relative to S&P 500 EU Pharma relative Stoxx
5 Geographic Inequalities Present Challenges & Opportunities 5
6 Global Healthcare Universe (10months) Healthcare is a large sector in the investable universe MSCI World & MSCI World Healthcare constituents Healthcare sector is 12% of MSCI World Index Diverse sub-sectors including pharmaceutical, hospital, med-tech, biotech, property, IT, consumer retail, dental, laboratory and others MSCI World Health Index includes 120 stocks valued at $4 trillion the US dominates in terms of size and liquidity with 62 stocks Difficult to access some geographies on both long and short side (India, China and Saudi Arabia) Valuations and returns vary widely US Switzerland UK Germany Japan France Denmark Canada Australia Israel Financials, 17.8% Information Technology, 15.2% Consumer Discretionary, 12.2% Telecoms, 3.1% 5 Health Care, 12.1% Utilities, 3.2% Real Estate, 3.3% Materials, 5.2% Energy, 6.8% Consumer Staples, 9.8% Industrials, 11.2% ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Market cap in $bn Source: Morgan Stanley, Bloomberg 6
7 Global Healthcare As A Discreet Investment Category (10months) Global healthcare portfolio opportunities: Large liquid universe Diversify portfolio risk across geographies and subsectors Play structural themes like ageing, cancer, public / private provision Hedging via ETF, single stock, currency positions or other derivative structures Investing in healthcare is not new some of the largest and/or oldest public companies are healthcare companies A global healthcare fund The next generation of investment opportunity? We think so! But the number of specific global healthcare funds remains limited In South Africa there have been none, until now. 7
8 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Salveo Global Healthcare Fund - Introduction (10months) Fund structure: Strategy: Equity Long/short Launch: June Salveo Healthcare Fund performance AUM: $4 million Internally seeded Domicile: Cayman Islands Fund exposures: 26 investments 55% emerging market exposure Net exposure 75% (c15% short positions) Visio Salveo Healthcare MSCI World Healthcare JSE Allshare Peer 1 Peer 2 Source: Bloomberg Return since inception Annualised return Sharpe ratio Volatility Salveo- USD 18.0% 5.8% % Salveo- ZAR 47.3% 14.2% % 8
9 Salveo Global Healthcare Fund Key Themes (10months) Return target: 10% total return per annum Value focus with some exceptions Hospital and long-term care providers: UK exposure via Netcare and Spire EU exposure via Orpea, Fresenius and Ramsay Health Emerging Market exposure via NMC Health, Bangkok Dusit Medical and IHH Healthcare Generic pharmaceuticals: Sustainable low cost providers Therapeutic areas with significant unmet need (HIV, Hepatitis, vaccines) What we are avoiding: Big Pharma low growth, huge R&D spend Biotech high risk, R&D and news flow driven Trying to keep things simple 9
10 Salveo Global Healthcare Fund Holdings and Exposures Country split Sub-sector weightings vs index AUD 5% EUR 13% GBP 20% ZAR 9% INR 12% MYR 5% CHF 3% THB 5% Other Healthcare Technology Biotech Healthcare Equipment & Supplies Life Science Tools & Services Pharmaceuticals Healthcare Providers Salveo MSCI World Health USD 28% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% Sector weight (%) Top 10 holdings (%) SPIRE HEALTHC PL 8.9% DAVITA INC 5.1% NETCARE LTD 8.2% FRESENIUS SE & C 5.0% ORPEA 6.0% GLENMARK PHARMA 4.9% NMC HEALTH 5.5% BANGKOK DUSIT MD 4.6% STRIDES SHASUN L 5.4% IHH HEALTHCARE B 4.4% 10
11 VISIO CAPITAL GLOBAL HEALTHCARE: The next generation of investment opportunities? Visio Salveo Global Healthcare Fund (USD Long / Short) Visio BCI Global Healthcare Fund (ZAR Long only) AFRICAN EAGLE OWL Bubo Africanus Exceptional vision and acute hearing play a major part in an owl s hunting technique. Couple these with powerful talons and beak, plus the ability to fly silently, and you have a formidable predator, using stealth to hunt down prey. QUESTIONS? 11
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