Q MARKETS REVIEW

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1 Q Stock markets around the globe moved higher during the quarter despite natural disasters and geopolitical tensions. The market focused more on rapid corporate earnings growth and contained inflation. Overview Global stock markets extended their gains during the third quarter of Neither environmental disasters nor geopolitical confrontations derailed a broad-based global stock market rally. Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria hit the United States in rapid succession and Mexico City experienced a devastating earthquake. Beyond the tragic human impact, the U.S. economy took an immediate hit. Markets took the damage mostly in stride with a few exceptions. In particular, the price of gasoline spiked as Houston s refining capacity went offline. The war of words between President Trump and North Korea leader Kim Jung Un and that nation s nuclear tests also had little lasting impact on security prices during the quarter. The Trump administration and Republicans in Congress began the quarter with a failed attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act. Early in the quarter, a series of high profile departures hit the President s staff, but he enjoyed two wins in September as he teamed up with Democrats to postpone the debt ceiling and introduced his tax plans. Also in September, the Federal Reserve (Fed) held off on further interest rate hikes, but announced plans for another rate hike this year and more to follow in 2018 along with the start of reversing its quantitative easing (QE) tactics in October of U.S. companies delivered another solid quarter of earnings growth. Second quarter data showed that more than two-thirds of companies on the S&P 500 beat their average revenue estimates. Actual earnings growth came in greater than 10%, well above the 6.4% estimate going into the period. Earnings estimates compiled by Factset forecast earnings growth rate of 2.8% for the third quarter, which will begin reporting in October. Initial claims for jobless benefits spiked in September primarily as the result of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Natural disasters may make it harder to read the trend of the economy for the rest of the year Initial Claims (Seasonally Adjusted ) Source: U.S. Employment and Training Administration S&P 500 is a registered trademark of Standard & Poor s Financial Services LLC ( S&P )

2 Change in Thousands of Persons Q The trend in jobs growth has slowed but it was the disruption to the economies of Texas and Florida from hurricanes that pushed the number into negative territory in September. The U.S. Economy The second quarter s gross domestic product (GDP) came in at a solid 3.1% gain. Strength in the economy was broad-based with participation from consumer spending, business investment, exports and federal government spending. These gains suggest that elevated sentiment from small business CEO s and consumers is finally translating into some extra growth. The latest worries are over the impact of major hurricanes. Early data suggest an immediate impact on employment in the affected areas but the damage may not be enough to knock the economy off trend. Surveys from regional federal reserve banks suggested strength outside the hurricane-affected areas and the national Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index for September signaled continued growth. U.S. hiring levels showed weather-related weakness in September as payrolls logged their first drop in seven years. The decrease in payrolls centered in those states hit by hurricanes. The Fed took no action in September but made it clear they plan to raise rates again by the end of the year. The beginning of the end for QE was also announced with an October start. Although inflation readings are not high, the Fed s plan also includes multiple interest rate hikes in Change in Total Non-Farm Payrolls Sources: St. Louis Fed, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics As of: September Inflation & Monetary Policy CPI inflation has moved up to 1.9%. Other measures are still well below 2% including the Fed s favorite measure Core PCE deflator which is at 1.3%. However, the Fed seemed willing to bet that goods prices, which have been weak, will catch up with services prices which have been rising more rapidly. Against the backdrop of firmer commodity prices and a weaker dollar, the Fed signaled further interest rate hikes despite what Chair Janet Yellen called the mystery of continued low inflation

3 Europe, Japan and China all show signs of economic momentum. Brazil s economy tiptoed out of its sharp recession. The Global Economy Signs of the global economy trending toward growth abounded in the quarter. Europe s economic gains spread beyond Germany. On a yearover-year basis Italy grew 1.5%, France 1.8%, and Spain by 3.1%. The Eurozone as a whole grew at a 2.3% pace and the U.K. at 1.5%. Japan, the world s third largest national economy grew 2.5% over the past year. Increased consumer spending and capital spending helped the country post its sixth consecutive quarter of growth, the longest streak in a decade. Despite the gains, the Bank of Japan maintained policy rates at -0.1%. As China prepares for the October Party Congress, economic policy emphasized a continued shift toward the consumer. While retail sales rebounded sharply in the quarter, those who worry about over-investment for China note that the country continues to see high levels of fixed investment and fiscal spending. Emerging market countries, such as Brazil, saw improvements as well. Brazil s record trade surplus helped that nation s GDP move into positive territory for the first time in three years. Low inflation gave Brazil s central bank the flexibility to lower policy rates recently. Policy rates which were over 14% less than a year ago were moved down to 8.25% in September. Investors bid up U.S. stock prices in the third quarter fueled by improved earnings and continued economic momentum. U.S. Stocks U.S. stocks delivered another quarter of solid gains. Without a spike in interest rates or economic slowdown, investors focused on corporate earnings growth within the U.S. stock market. Geopolitical risks and natural disasters had minimal impact during the quarter. President Trump s debt ceiling deal and tax plan seemed to support prices more than high profile resignations, including Steve Bannon, Sean Spicer, and Anthony Scaramucci. S&P 500 -Trailing Twelve Months Sources: Bloomberg As of: 9/29/ Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

4 Growth outpaced value again in the quarter, while small cap stocks reacted positively to President Trump s tax proposals. Market Cap & Style Gains were broadly positive during the quarter. Growth stocks had another strong quarter while pessimism towards traditional consumer companies weighed on the value index. Small cap stocks were supported by President Trump s proposed tax plan. U.S. Large Cap Stocks S&P 500 Composite U.S. Mid Cap Stocks Russell Mid Cap U.S. Small Cap Stocks Russell 2000 U.S. Value Stocks Russell 3000 Value U.S. Growth Stocks Russell 3000 Growth Source: Morningstar Direct as of 9/29/2017 Amazon s acquisition of Whole Foods Market caused CEO s across many industries to ponder the company s disruptive potential in their own industries. Sector Amazon s acquisition of Whole Foods Market sent shivers through consumer staples stocks. Higher oil prices helped energy stocks and information technology continued to lead the markets. S&P 500 Index Sectors Weights (%) QTD (%) Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Real Estate Telecommunication Services Utilities Attribution Total 4.47 Source: Morningstar Direct as of 9/29/2017 International stocks outpaced U.S. stocks with emerging markets leading the way. International Stocks Signs that economic growth was spreading across Europe and Japan helped international stocks during the quarter. Laggards such as France and Italy reported improved data while Greece benefitted from a bailout package early in the quarter. The Catalonia independence vote in Spain added political risk to the equation but was not enough to hold back gains for the quarter. In the last two weeks of September, the U.S. dollar rallied against the Japanese yen but for the quarter as a whole, weakness in the U.S. dollar made returns for international developed stocks more attractive. 4

5 Further signs of improving economic conditions and no moves from the Fed helped international stocks to a strong quarter. Stronger global growth and modest inflation supported emerging market stocks for another quarter. Faster growth supports earnings while low inflation allows local central banks to lower interest rates. Investor confidence that the Fed will not hit the brakes too hard as they remove monetary stimulus also helped emerging markets. Developed Market Stocks (USD) MSCI EAFE (net) Developed Market Stocks (LCL) MSCI EAFE (net) LCL Currency Impact Emerging Market Stocks (USD) MSCI EM (net) European Stocks (USD) MSCI Europe (net) Japanese Stocks (USD) MSCI Japan (net) U.S Treasury yields did not change much from the beginning to the end of the quarter. To start the quarter bond prices rose but fell to end the quarter. Yields moved higher to close the quarter as oil prices rallied and the Trump Administration announced its tax plan. Pacific Country Stocks (USD) MSCI Pacific Ex Japan (net) Source: Morningstar Direct as of 9/29/17 Fixed Income The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond moved lower from July until early September. Although the Consumer Price Index recently hit 1.9%, the mystery remains as to why other measures that the Fed pays close attention to, such as the Core PCE deflator, have remained low. Although hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria did cause some commodities to spike, their impact on inflation is unclear and likely to be temporary. With inflation readings low, the market grew comfortable with the idea that the Fed may hold off on rate hikes in However, rates began to rise prior to September s Fed meeting and continued to move higher when Fed Chair Janet Yellen made it clear that the Fed plans another hike in 2017, multiple hikes in 2018 and the beginning of the end for QE in October. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield -Trailing Twelve Months Sources: St. Louis Fed, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) As of: 9/29/ Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 1.3 5

6 U.S. high yield bonds again delivered strong returns as investors felt comfortable seeking out extra return in an environment of solid economic trends. Region International and emerging markets bonds delivered positive returns for the quarter. Continued confidence in global economic fundamentals and a soft U.S. dollar provided support to non-u.s. bond returns. Following the Fed s September meeting emerging markets assets had a short sell-off but stabilized to preserve gains for the period. Credit Keeping with the theme of investor confidence in economic fundamentals, Investment-grade and high-yield corporate bond prices both moved higher during the quarter. Duration Even as Interest rates moved higher at the end the quarter, bond prices held steady. Shorter duration bonds saw most of the action as the yield curve flattened. Long government bonds, as measured by the Bloomberg Barclays US Treasury 20+ Year Index, lagged corporate and high yield bonds but still managed to deliver a positive return for the quarter despite losing 2.22% in the month of September. U.S. Bonds BBgBarc US Agg Bond Developed Market Bonds BBgBarc Gbl Agg Ex US Emerging Market Bonds JPM EMBI Global U.S. Corporate Bonds BBgBarc US Corp IG U.S. High Yield Corporate Bonds BBgBarc US Corp High Yield U.S. TIPS BBgBarc US Treasury US TIPS U.S. Long Duration Treasuries BBgBarc US Treasury 20+ Yr Source: Morningstar Direct as of 9/29/17 Higher gold and oil prices supported the Bloomberg Commodity Index during the quarter. Real Estate & Commodities Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) delivered positive returns for the quarter despite concerns that Amazon and other technologies may make malls obsolete. Commodities rose on signs that oil supply and demand may be coming into balance. In the U.S, oil inventories fell as other oil producing nations made plans for further output cuts. The Kurds, who control Iraq s Northern oil fields and who recently voted for independence, added uncertainty which pushed prices higher. Weakness in agricultural commodities offset some of the gains while gold and silver came off their highs following the Fed s September meeting. U.S. Real Estate DJ US Real Estate Commodities Bloomberg Commodity Gold Bloomberg Sub Gold Source: Morningstar Direct as of 9/29/17 6

7 Conclusion Hurricanes, earthquakes and heightened risk of nuclear conflict did not stop most major stock markets from rising during the third quarter of This left many scratching their heads as to investor s complacency. The more likely explanation is that the economic impact of environmental disasters is real, but usually temporary. And, as long as the situation on the Korean Peninsula remains a war of words, the market will focus on factors that traditionally drive returns. Right now, that comes down to modest inflation, strong corporate earnings growth, and central bank policies that remain largely supportive of risk-taking. Evidence of a synchronized global upturn got the attention of the media and investors during the quarter. Despite anti-trade rhetoric and sporadic anti-trade measures, global trade volumes moved higher. Low inflation and a weaker dollar allowed emerging market countries to support their local economies by lowering interest rates as their trade balances simultaneously improved. In this environment of faster but contained growth, investors continue to look to stocks and corporate bonds for potential incremental return. As noted last quarter, the markets appear to be handling political drama in Washington, DC with minimal disruption. Raising the debt ceiling supported prices, as did optimism about tax changes. However, the trend in stock prices seems independent of policy alone. Investing always comes with risks and rising prices have moved valuations to less attractive levels. We believe that investors who stick with a disciplined, diversified plan are best positioned to capture the benefits of shifting trends in the markets. The performance data cited in this document represents past performance and should not be considered indicative of future results. Current performance may be lower or higher than return data quoted herein. Investors should carefully consider investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. These materials and the platform of investments made available by MassMutual are offered without regard to the individualized needs of any plan, its participants, or beneficiaries. These materials are not intended as impartial investment advice or to give advice in a fiduciary capacity to any plan. This and other important information about the platform of investments made available by MassMutual is contained in fund prospectuses and summary prospectuses, which can be obtained from and should be read carefully before investing. These investments are not FDIC-insured, may lose value and are not guaranteed by a bank or other financial institution. The information provided is the opinion of MassMutual Funds Investment Management as of 10/16/2017 and is subject to change without notice. It is not to be construed as tax, legal or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Company (MassMutual), Springfield, MA All rights reserved. 7/17 RS