Capital Market Outlook Q3 2017
|
|
- Victor Weaver
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Economic progress, in capitalist society, means turmoil Josef A. Schumpeter Summary Capital Market Outlook Q 207 We are not sure that the economist and long time Harvard professor envisaged the type of turmoil we are now experiencing as the country transitions from a progressive administration to a more conservative administration. However, he reminds us that economic progress is hopefully occurring. The highlights of our outlook are as follows: The U.S. economic performance in the 2nd Quarter is expected to be stronger than the st Quarter. The U.S. dollar has declined and may show further weakness. Total inflation remains well below Fed targets, both core and headline statistics. This provides flexibility to the Fed in their interest rate policy. U.S. equities are at the high end of valuations. Emerging market economic performance, perhaps other than China, is expected to continue to strengthen. Energy prices appear to have stabilized and activity remains high in economical oil and gas plays. Economy The final revision to U.S. st Quarter GDP was.4%, a 0.7% upward revision from the first estimate of 0.7%, and up 0.2% from the second revision (Chart ). The additional analysis showed higher levels of personal consumption expenditures ( PCE ), non residential fixed construction, and net exports than previously estimated. While still lackluster, it surpassed the st Quarter of 206. U.S. employment data continues to improve. The U.S. economy added 222,000 jobs in June (Chart 2). June was the 8st consecutive month of job gains. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%, but this was due to an increase in the labor force participation rate. Average wages continue to increase, up 2.% for the trailing year. Underemployment, as measured by U 6, ticked up to 8.6% during the month. Inflation has been lower than expected in 207. Core consumer inflation, that is CPI less food and energy, has actually declined for the last three months ending in May and stands at.7% annualized. The core PCE deflator, watched more closely by the Federal Reserve ( Fed ), was at.4% for the trailing year (Chart ). This is well below the Fed target of 2.0% and under.% for the first time since 20. While increasing inflation is expected for the longer term, it remains benign for the near term. The Federal Reserve implemented another 0.2% increase in June for their range for Fed funds, despite the subdued inflation data. Bond markets have experienced a recent selloff, as investors are concerned that low interest rates may be ending. Nevertheless, while the Fed anticipates up to two more hikes in 207, the futures market and the performance of the 0 year Treasury yield prior to the announcement imply the Fed might actually hit the pause button (Chart 4). The Federal Reserve has announced a planned reduction in its balance sheet, a further sign of tightening monetary policy, but the start, speed and size of the reductions remain to be seen. The U.S. economy outlook remains positive. Leading indicators, positive consumer sentiment, and a slow but steady unraveling of the regulations imposed under the previous administration are all positive for improved growth. The upward revision in consumer spending in the st Quarter raises optimism. The expectation of the timing and magnitude of tax cuts, first notionally delayed until 208, and now advanced to the fall, should help growth, although how much will depend on the magnitude of the cuts. Health care legislation is proceeding in fits and starts, but it remains unclear if some form will pass. The recent U.S. dollar weakening should help exports, but the impact is likely minimal at this point. Energy exports are accelerating and helping net exports. Overall, U.S. GDP at this point will struggle to exceed % for the year. Globally, in developed economies, growth and inflation indicators are positive. Europe continues to surprise on the upside and may outperform the U.S. this year. While the Euro has strengthened recently, it remains to be seen whether immigration problems and financial crises, particularly Greece and Italy, will cause unforeseen strain. The doomsday scenarios in the U.K. from Brexit have not come to pass, and negotiations are set to commence. Commodity based economies, such as Australia, are struggling, and Japan continues to plod along. Emerging market economies are generally positive. Chinese debt continues to rise, but in a year of resetting the five year plan and party elections, no major changes in policy are expected. Growth is slowing, but is still positive between % and 7%, depending on whose calculations you believe. Modi s recent election successes in India mean his modernization and deregulation policies should continue, but it remains to be seen what the impact on growth will be.
2 Equity Markets U.S. equity markets continued to rise in the 2 nd Quarter, with the S&P 00 up.% and the tech heavy NASDAQ composite advancing 4.2%. The ongoing strength of the equity markets resulted in a year over year return of 7.9% for the S&P 00. The NASDAQ composite delivered a 29.4% return over the trailing year. 2 nd Quarter S&P 00 earnings are estimated to be up 6.6% following an increase in the st Quarter of.9%. However, U.S. equities continue to trade at the high end of valuation ranges (Chart ). Market volatility remains low, suggesting in part that the recent leveling of U.S. equity market indices reflects more a pause than portending a coming correction. Although recent turmoil has occurred in the tech sector, overall market trends appear positive. However, we remain cautious in the near term on domestic equity markets. International developed market equities delivered a positive quarter with the MSCI EAFE returning 6.%. In Euroland, markets modestly declined in local currencies, but with the decline in the U.S. dollar relative to the Euro, significantly outperformed in U.S. dollar terms. European equities, measured by Euro STO 600, fell 0.% in Euro terms but advanced by 6.% in U.S. dollar terms (Chart 6). More importantly, Euroland equities ended the eight year downward trend post the 2008 financial crisis relative to U.S. equities. European equities are trading above their normal valuation ranges, but not by as much as U.S. equities. Inflation remains benign in Europe, although signs of increases are appearing, and the ECB remains expansionary albeit signaling a reduction in the level of accommodation. Emerging market equities have rebounded strongly, up 2.8% over the trailing year, but have not yet attained their normal valuation multiples, leaving room for growth. Nevertheless, investing in emerging market equities remains country specific, with China continuing to show significant vulnerabilities economically with the debt bubble and slowing growth, while others are more positive. Active management and country specific allocation remain the preferred method for investing in EM equities. Global equity markets remain vulnerable to geopolitical risks. North Korea, Syria, the Arab states dust up with the UAE, terrorism, and Russian and Chinese expansionist activities all pose event risk threats. Interest Rates The yield on the 0 year U.S. Treasury declined for most of the quarter, but rose after the Fed announcement of the June rate hike and reiterated intentions to reduce its balance sheet assets (Chart 7). There has been a recent selloff in the bond markets, but it is too soon to tell if this portends a structural rise in rates. Despite the Treasury yield increases, bond spreads have compacted. Analysts suggest current interest rate levels are too low given growth prospects. The high yield debt market continues to improve in credit quality and default reduction. Despite the recent drop in oil prices, the energy issues, a large part of U.S. high yield bonds, continue to show improved debt service coverage. The high yield index returned 2.% for the quarter, and signs remain positive. Emerging market debt appears positive, but again is country specific. With the decline of the U.S. dollar, improvements in local currency returns are enhanced for U.S. investors. Energy and Commodities Oil markets, after peaking above $/Bbl WTI early in the quarter, have declined back to $46/Bbl WTI, as traders, despite the production cuts by major producers other than the U.S., remain concerned about the high level of inventories relative to demand (Chart 8). Many shale oil plays are profitable, even at these low levels, and U.S. oil exports are increasing. The roll back of energy and environmental regulations has led to increased coal usage, despite the conversion of many power plants to natural gas. Natural gas over $/Mmcf makes western coal competitive, and that is the level at which domestic gas pricing has held. Energy Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) The Alerian Index, an index of MLPs, was down 6.4% for the 2 nd Quarter, affected by the 9% decline in oil prices. However, active drilling requiring transportation and storage facilities, increasing construction of fractionation plants to capture liquids and flared gas, and increased LNG and oil exports including expansion plans, all have the MLP industry growing significantly. This improves potential future distribution levels, as well as distribution coverage. We continue to believe the asset class offers excellent riskadjusted and tax effective yields. JWM Strategy Our Current Allocation Strategy is attached. We continue to emphasize an overweight allocation to U.S. equities relative to international, short duration for fixed income coupled with a diversified mix of non traditional income assets as income assets substitutes. We continue to closely monitor core real estate assets, particularly in the multi family space, due to the high and continuing levels of new construction over the last few years and concerns about lease up in new projects. Thank you for your continued confidence in JWM.
3 Chart The final revision to U.S. st Quarter GDP was.4%, a 0.7% upward revision from the first estimate of 0.7%, and up 0.2% from the second revision. The U.S. economic performance in the 2nd Quarter is expected to be stronger than the st Quarter. U.S. GDP Chart 2 The U.S. economy added 222,000 jobs in June. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%, but this was due to an increase in the labor force participation rate. Average wages continue to increase, up 2.% for the trailing year. U.S. Unemployment Source: The Wall Street Journal Real GDP growth is measured at seasonally adjusted annual rates. Chart Total inflation remains well below Fed targets, both core and headline statistics. The core PCE deflator, watched more closely by the Fed, was at.4% for the trailing year. This provides flexibility to the Fed in their interest rate policy. U.S. Inflation Source: The Wall Street Journal, U.S. Labor Department Seasonally Adjusted Chart 4 Global bond markets have experienced a recent sell off, as investors are concerned that low interest rates may be ending. The Fed anticipates up to two more hikes in 207, however the futures market implies the Fed might actually hit the pause button. Global Interest Rates Source: Source: The Wall Street Journal, The Commerce Department May 207 Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Bloomberg ** Target Policy Rates for Japan are estimated
4 Source: FactSet. J.P. Morgan Asset Management Source: The Wall Street Journal Chart U.S. equities continue to trade at the high end of valuation ranges. International valuations remain attractive relative to domestic. 2 nd Quarter S&P 00 earnings are estimated to be up 6.6% following an increase in the st Quarter of.9%. International earnings are also accelerating. Global Equity Valuations & Earnings Chart 6 The U.S. dollar has declined and may show further weakness. Concerns about lack of progress in Washington and worries about the Fed s ability to raise rates with inflation declining have caused the pressure. The recent weakening should help exports, but the impact on corporate earnings is likely to be minimal. U.S. Dollar Index U.S. Interest Rates Source: FactSet, MSCI, Standard & Poor s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management Chart 7 The yield curve continues to flatten. The Fed has been raising interest rates and plans to begin shrinking its balance sheet. Longer term yields have been in retreat and as such, the yield curve has flattened meaningfully. U.S. Interest Rates Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Chart 8 Oil markets, after peaking above $/Bbl WTI early in the quarter, have declined back to $46/Bbl WTI, as traders, despite the production cuts by major producers other than the U.S., remain concerned about the high level of inventories relative to demand. Oil Prices
5 JWM Current Allocation Strategy Q 207 Overall portfolio target allocations reflect customized client Investment Policy. The current JWM strategy within various assets classes is outlined below: Income Assets Significant Neutral Significant Underweight Underweight Weight Overweight Overweight Target Within Income Assets Traditional Fixed Income 0% Cash & Equivalents US Government Bonds Municipal Bonds US Corporate Bonds High Yield Bonds Convertible Bonds Floating Rate/Bank Loans Eurozone Bonds Developed Markets Other Emerging Market Bonds Non Traditional Income Assets 0% Master Limited Partnerships (MLP's)/Energy Preferred Stocks Conservative Allocation Funds Diversified Income Equities Target Within Equities US Equities 70% Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap Hedged Equity International 0% Eurozone Developed Markets Other Currency Hedged International Emerging Markets Alternative Investments Core Alternatives Opportunistic Alternatives Target Within Alternative Varies by Client
6 Market Index Returns - June 207 Equity Returns Income Asset Returns Russell Style Index Returns Q2 US Fixed Income Maturity & Quality Returns Q2 Large Cap Government/Corporate Mid Cap Municipal Bonds Small Cap High Yield Value Blend Growth Short Intermediate Long Large Cap Government/Corporate Mid Cap Municipal Bonds Small Cap High Yield Value Blend Growth Short Intermediate Long - - Large Cap Government/Corporate 0.4 (0.2) (.) Mid Cap Municipal Bonds (0.) Small Cap High Yield Value Blend Growth Short Intermediate Long Domestic Equities Q2 - Traditional Fixed Income Q2 - Russell BofAML US Convertible S&P S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Dow Jones Industrial Average Barclays Global Aggregate Bond ex-usd.6 6. (.8) NASDAQ Composite JPM EMBI Global Diversified (USD) JPM GBI-EM Global Diversified (Local Currency) International Equities Non-Traditional Income Assets MSCI ACWI ex-us Alerian MLP Index (6.4) (2.7) 0.4 MSCI EAFE (Developed) BofA ML Preferred Stock Fixed Rate MSCI EAFE Hedged (Developed) DJ Mortgage REIT MSCI Emerging Markets Source: Morningstar; JWM believes the data is representative, but cannot guarantee its accuracy. All calculations represent total return and are annualized for periods exceeding year.
7 Market Index Returns - June 207 Broad Index Domestic Equity Traditional Fixed Income S&P Barclays US Treasury Bills MSCI USA Minimum Volatility (0.) Barclays US Treasury - Intermediate (0.) (.)... S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrats Barclays Municipal (0.4) DJ Industrial Average Barclays Gov't/Corp - Intermediate (0.2) (0.2) NASDAQ 00 (2.4) Barclays US Aggregate Bond (0.). 2. (0.) Russell BofA ML US High Yield Master Russell BofAML US Convertible Russell Mid Cap S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan (0.0) Russell Barclays Global Aggregate Bond ex-usd (0.).6 6. (.8) (2.4) (0.4). Style Index JPM EMBI Global Diversified (0.) Russell 000 Growth (0.) JPM GBI-EM Global Diversified (2.8) (0.7) 4.0 Russell 000 Value Non-Traditional Income Assets Russell Mid Cap Growth Alerian MLP Index (0.7) (6.4) (2.7) 0.4 (.2).8.7 Russell Mid Cap Value BofA ML Preferred Stock Fixed Rate Russell 2000 Growth DJ Mortgage REIT Russell 2000 Value Income Assets 0 Broad Index International Equity MSCI ACWI Ex USA MSCI US REIT (.) MSCI EAFE (0.2) CBOE S&P 00 Buywrite MSCI EAFE Hedged (0.7) CBOE Market Volatility (VI) 7.4 (9.6) (20.4) (28.) (.) (8.) (.7) MSCI EAFE Minimum Volatility (0.) Bloomberg Commodity (0.2) (.0) (.) (6.) (4.8) (9.) (6.) MSCI EM S&P 00 Sectors 0 MSCI EM Minimum Volatility (0.2).2.0 Energy (0.2) (6.4) (2.6) (4.) (0.).6. MSCI Frontier Markets (.4) Materials Regional/Country Index Industrials MSCI Canada (.9).0. Consumer Discretionary (.2) MSCI UK (.9) (.0). 0. Consumer Staples (2.) MSCI EMU (.) (0.) Health Care MSCI Japan Financials MSCI EM EMEA (2.) (6.0) (.) (.6) Information Technology (2.7) MSCI EM Asia Telecom Services (2.9) (7.) (0.7) (.7) MSCI EM Latin America 0.7 (.7) 0..0 (6.6) (.8) (.2) Utilities (2.7) Index Miscellaneous 0
Capital Market Outlook Q4 2017
It amazes me how people are often more willing to act based on little or no data than to use data that is a challenge to assemble. - Robert Shiller Summary Capital Market Outlook Q4 207 The Yale Nobel
More informationAsset Strategy Consultants. MARKET ENVIRONMENT Third Quarter 2016
MARKET ENVIRONMENT Third Quarter 2016 Market Environment: Economy Investor angst over the unexpected vote on Brexit was short lived with a "risk on" theme returning to the markets in July and leading to
More informationMAY 2018 Capital Markets Update
MAY 2018 Market commentary U.S. ECONOMICS The U.S. added 223,000 jobs to payrolls in May, well above the consensus estimate of 180,000 and the expansion average of around 200,000. Sector job gains were
More informationEconomic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report January 2018
Economic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report January 1 NOT FDIC INSURED NO BANK GUARANTEE MAY LOSE VALUE Overview of the Economy Business and economic confidence continue to
More informationAsset Strategy Consultants. MARKET ENVIRONMENT First Quarter 2017
MARKET ENVIRONMENT First Quarter 2017 Market Environment: Economy Economies in the U.S. and Europe continued to gain traction. Expectations for lower taxes, reduced regulation, and other pro-growth reforms
More informationAsset Strategy Consultants. MARKET ENVIRONMENT Second Quarter 2016
MARKET ENVIRONMENT Second Quarter 2016 Market Environment: U.S. Economy The 2nd quarter was reasonably uneventful and markets were relatively placid until June 23rd, when British voters narrowly approved
More informationACG Market Review. Second Quarter Global Highlights: Economy Announced tariffs have so far failed to slow down economic activity
ACG Market Review Second Quarter 2018 Global Highlights: Economy Announced tariffs have so far failed to slow down economic activity Equities U.S. equites turn positive for the year backed by strong corporate
More informationEconomic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report October 2017
Economic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report October 17 NOT FDIC INSURED NO BANK GUARANTEE MAY LOSE VALUE Overview of the Economy Business and economic confidence indicators
More informationWEEKLY MARKET FLASH DATA AS OF FEBRUARY 2, Index definitions available upon request. 1 of 5. Total Return (%)
WEEKLY MARKET FLASH DATA AS OF FEBRUARY 2, 2018 U.S. Equity Index Level 1 Week MTD QTD YTD 1 Year Global Equity USD 1 Week MTD QTD YTD 1 Year S&P 500 2,762 (3.81) (2.16) 3.44 3.44 23.54 DJIA 25,521 (4.11)
More informationEconomic and Capital Market Update November 2017
Economic and Capital Market Update November 2017 Oct-69 Oct-73 Oct-77 Oct-81 Oct-85 Oct-89 Oct-93 Oct-97 Oct-01 Oct-05 Oct-09 Oct-13 Oct-17 November 30, 2017 Economic Perspective Economy Global economic
More informationSEPTEMBER 2018 Capital Markets Update
SEPTEMBER 2018 Market commentary U.S. ECONOMICS Non-farm payrolls added 134,000 jobs in September, missing the consensus estimate of 185,000. However, net revisions to the two months prior totaled +87,000
More informationSummit Strategies Group 8182 Maryland Avenue, 6th Floor St. Louis, Missouri Monthly Economic & Capital Market Update
Summit Strategies Group 8182 Maryland Avenue, 6th Floor St. Louis, Missouri 63105 314.727.7211 Monthly Economic & Capital Market Update November 2015 Yield to Maturity Monthly Change Nov-63 Nov-67 Nov-71
More informationEconomic and Market Overview Second Quarter Economic and Market Overview
Economic and Market Overview 1 The following commentary summarizes prior financial market activity and uses data obtained from public sources. This commentary is intended for one-on-one use with a client
More informationGlobal Market Overview
First Quarter 219 First Quarter 219: March Madness, or Just an Incredible Rebound? Global Market Overview MSCI All Country World S&P Russell 2 MSCI EAFE MSCI Emerging Markets MSCI ACWI ex USA Small BBgBarc
More informationLeumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. May 8, The Finance Division, Economics Department. leumiusa.
Global Economics Monthly Review May 8, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist The Finance Division, Economics Department Leumi leumiusa.com Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report Key
More informationEconomic and Capital Market Update April 2018
Economic and Capital Market Update April 2018 Apr-70 Apr-74 Apr-78 Apr-82 Apr-86 Apr-90 Apr-94 Apr-98 Apr-02 Apr-06 Apr-10 Apr-14 Apr-18 April 30, 2018 Economic Perspective The strong pace of the global
More informationFourth Quarter Market Outlook. Kim Huebner, CFA Don Powell, CFA Joseph Styrna, CFA
Fourth Quarter 2017 Market Outlook Kim Huebner, CFA Don Powell, CFA Joseph Styrna, CFA Economic Outlook Growth Increasing, Spending Modest, Low Unemployment 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 GDP* Q3:
More informationInvestment Research Team Update
Economic & Market Commentary Market Update February 2015 February was a great month for global stocks! The S&P 500 ( large cap stocks) was up 5.7% and small stocks (Russell 2000) gained 5.9%. The jobs
More informationDECEMBER 2018 Capital Markets Update
DECEMBER 2018 Market commentary U.S. ECONOMICS Nonfarm payrolls jumped by 312,000 in December, well above expectations for a 176,000 increase. The healthcare sector (+50,000) led job creation, while restaurants
More informationSummit Strategies Group 8182 Maryland Avenue, 6th Floor St. Louis, Missouri Monthly Economic & Capital Market Update
Summit Strategies Group 8182 Maryland Avenue, 6th Floor St. Louis, Missouri 63105 314.727.7211 Monthly Economic & Capital Market Update July 2015 Yield to Maturity Monthly Change Jul-63 Jul-67 Jul-71 Jul-75
More informationGlobal Macroeconomic Monthly Review
Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review August 14 th, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department 1 Please see disclaimer on the last page of this report Key Issues Global
More informationCapital Market Review
Capital Market Review September 3, 215 Percent Percent MARKET/ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Risk Reprices Rapidly 2,2 1,9 1,6 1,3 S&P 5 April 29, 211 to Oct 3, 211 157 Days -19.4% May 21, 215 to Sep 3, 215 132 Days
More informationEconomic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report. June 2014
Economic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report June 1 Overview of the Economy In the U.S., the Federal Reserve s Beige Book report on the economy through late May indicated that
More informationLeumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. July 12, Capital Markets Division, Economics Department. leumiusa.
Global Economics Monthly Review July 12, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department Leumi leumiusa.com Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report
More informationFinancial Market Outlook: Further Stock Gain on Faster GDP Rebound and Earnings Recovery. Year-end Target Raised
For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: FurtherStock Gains Likely, Year-end Target Raised. Bond Under Pressure
More informationSummit Strategies Group
As of December 3, 203 US Equity: All Cap Russell 3000 Index 2.64 0.0 33.55 33.55 6.24 8.7 6.50 7.88 7.09 Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index 2.63 0. 33.47 33.47 6.23 8.86 6.68 8.0 6.90 US Equity: Large
More informationEconomic and Market Overview
Economic and Market Overview 2017 Envestnet, Inc. All rights reserved. FOR ONE-ON-ONE USE WITH A CLIENT S FINANCIAL ADVISOR ONLY. 1 The following commentary summarizes prior financial market activity,
More informationWILSHIRE MUTUAL FUNDS
WILSHIRE MUTUAL FUNDS SEMI-ANNUAL REPORT (Unaudited) LARGE COMPANY GROWTH PORTFOLIO LARGE COMPANY VALUE PORTFOLIO SMALL COMPANY GROWTH PORTFOLIO SMALL COMPANY VALUE PORTFOLIO WILSHIRE 5000 INDEX SM FUND
More informationSummit Strategies Group
April 0, 205 US Equity: All Cap Russell 000 Index 0.45 5.9 2.26 2.74 6.86 4. 8.68 8.66 Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index 0.46 5.9 2.27 2.67 6.78 4.7 8.78 8.8 US Equity: Large Cap Russell 000 Index
More informationFourth Quarter Market Outlook. Jason Bulinski, CFA Donald A. Powell, CFA Joseph Styrna, CFA
Fourth Quarter 2018 Market Outlook Jason Bulinski, CFA Donald A. Powell, CFA Joseph Styrna, CFA Economic Outlook Growth: Strong 2018, But Expecting Slowdown in 2019 Growth & Jobs 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014
More informationMarket Update: Broad Market Returns and Indicators
Market Update Eckler Ltd. collects information directly from sources believed to be reliable. Eckler Ltd. does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of the information either
More informationEric C. Elbell, CFA, CAIA Area Senior Vice President. Kyongdo Min, CPA, CFA Area Vice President. April 11, 2018
Eric C. Elbell, CFA, CAIA Area Senior Vice President Kyongdo Min, CPA, CFA Area Vice President April 11, 2018 Agenda We will address three key topics: Headline events that impacted markets during the quarter
More informationQ MARKETS REVIEW
Stock markets around the world continued their ascent during the quarter as investors took solace in continuing corporate earnings growth, fueled by strong global economic growth, and U.S. tax cuts. Overview
More informationPrudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy October 2009
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy October 2009 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationFinancial Market Outlook: Stocks Rebounding from July Correction, Further Gains Likely. Bond Yields Range Bound
For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: Stocks Rebounding from July Correction, Further Gains Likely. Bond
More informationRetirement System Pension Plan Investment Performance Review Quarter Ended June 30, 2014
Retirement System Pension Plan Investment Performance Review Quarter Ended June 30, 2014 Investment Advisors John Spagnola, Managing Director Joseph Federico, Analyst PFM Asset Management LLC Two Logan
More informationMay market performance. Index. Index. Global economies
JUNE 2016 The recovery in equity and commodity prices from February lows continued into May with the third straight month of equity and commodity price rises. Oil prices continued to move higher, up another
More informationASSET ALLOCATION VIEWPOINTS
T. Rowe Price ASSET ALLOCATION VIEWPOINTS Q2 2017 Stocks vs. Bonds We increased our underweight to stocks relative to bonds as equity valuations appear extended against a backdrop of continued modest economic
More informationFresno County Employees' Retirement Association
Fresno County Employees' Retirement Association Investment Performance Review Period Ending: December 31, 2006 999 Third Avenue, Suite 3650 2321 Rosecrans Avenue, Suite 2250 Seattle, Washington 98104 El
More informationOCTOBER 2018 Capital Markets Update
OCTOBER 2018 Market commentary U.S. ECONOMICS U.S. real GDP grew at an annualized quarterly rate of 3.5% (3. YoY) in Q3, beating expectations of 3.4%. The economy was supported by the strongest consumer
More informationFourth Quarter 2015 Market Review. March 2016
Fourth Quarter 2015 Market Review March 2016 Agenda Market Review Investment Outlook and Portfolio Positioning 2 2015 was a Challenging Year for Investment Returns Last year was the first time since 2001
More informationMarket volatility to continue
How much more? Renewed speculation that financial institutions may report increased US subprime-related losses has sent equity markets tumbling. How much more bad news can investors expect going forward?
More informationDiversification Pays While Low Inflation Stays
Diversification Pays While Low Inflation Stays May 2, 2016 by Brad Tank of Neuberger Berman Neither rising rates nor rising defaults would spell the end of opportunistic, diversified fixed income. There
More informationSummit Strategies Group
US Equity: All Cap Russell 000 Index -.69 2.40.9 6.22 0.59 4.7 2.79 9.78 Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index -.70 2.4.4 6.2 0.55 4.2 2.76 9.8 US Equity: Large Cap Russell 000 Index -.67 2.75.62 6.70
More informationSummit Strategies Group
US Equity: All Cap Russell 000 Index.72 7.7 5.67 26.29 9.92.85.87 7.64 Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index - - - - - - - - US Equity: Large Cap Russell 000 Index.87 7.95 5.96 25.5 0.9.94.9 7.69 Russell
More informationSAGE INSIGHTS MONTHLY ECONOMIC & MARKET ANALYSIS
SAGE INSIGHTS MONTHLY ECONOMIC & MARKET ANALYSIS Core Bonds, U.S. and Developed Market Foreign Stocks Gain in July August 2015 Overview In July, prices of core bonds and large-cap domestic and foreign
More informationNovember PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy November 2015 John Praveen, PhD Chief Investment Strategist FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT: Theresa Miller Phone:
More informationMARCH 2018 Capital Markets Update
MARCH 2018 Market commentary ECONOMIC CLIMATE Hiring slowed from its fast pace last month the U.S. added 103,000 jobs to nonfarm payrolls in March, below the consensus estimate of 185,000. The U-3 unemployment
More informationASSET ALLOCATION REPORT
2018 ASSET ALLOCATION REPORT INTRODUCTION We invite you to review Omnia Family Wealth s 2018 report on expected asset class returns for the next 10 years. While we believe these forecasts reflect a reasonable
More informationInvestment Perspectives. From the Global Investment Committee
Investment Perspectives From the Global Investment Committee Introduction Domestic equities continued to race ahead during the fourth quarter of 2014 amid spikes in volatility, dramatic declines in oil
More informationPioneer Compass A Quarterly Update on the Direction of the Markets
Pioneer Compass A Quarterly Update on the Direction of the Markets Q1 2016 / As of April 2016 The views expressed in this presentation are those of Pioneer, and are subject to change at any time. These
More informationGlobal Equites declined from Concern over Trade War
Quarterly Market Outlook: Quarter 2 2018 on 3 April 2018 Global Equites declined from Concern over Trade War Investment Outlook for 2 nd Quarter 2018 Equity Thailand U.S. Europe Japan Asia Bond Thailand
More informationSummit Strategies Group
May, 208 US Equity: All Cap Russell 000 Index 2.82.4 2.55 5.06 0.72 2.85 2.6 9.2 Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index 2.8.5 2.57 5.09 0.68 2.78 2.58 9.27 US Equity: Large Cap Russell 000 Index 2.55 0.57
More informationSummit Strategies Group
June 0, 208 US Equity: All Cap Russell 000 Index 0.65.89.22 4.78.58.29.0 0.2 Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index 0.66.87.25 4.79.56.22 2.98 0.28 US Equity: Large Cap Russell 000 Index 0.65.57 2.85 4.54.64.7.2
More informationSummit Strategies Group
August, 208 US Equity: All Cap Russell 000 Index.5 7.65 0.9 20.25 5.86 4.25 5.50 0.89 Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index.48 7.64 0.4 20.26 5.82 4.2 5.45 0.94 US Equity: Large Cap Russell 000 Index.45
More informationSummit Strategies Group
October, 208 US Equity: All Cap Russell 000 Index -7.6 -.95 2.4 6.60.27 0.8.8.5 Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index -7.4-4.04 2.9 6.56.24 0.76.75.6 US Equity: Large Cap Russell 000 Index -7.08 -.5 2.67
More informationPortfolio Strategist Update from The Dreyfus Corporation
Portfolio Strategist Update from The Dreyfus Corporation Active Opportunity ETF Portfolios As of Dec. 31, 2017 Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc. (Ameriprise Financial) is the investment manager for Active
More informationECONOMIC AND MARKET COMMENTARY OUR MISSION
ECONOMIC AND MARKET COMMENTARY OUR MISSION Smith Shellnut Wilson is a registered investment adviser* specializing in managing investment portfolios for banks, individuals, corporations, foundations and
More information2015 Market Review & Outlook. January 29, 2015
2015 Market Review & Outlook January 29, 2015 Economic Outlook Jason O. Jackman, CFA President & Chief Investment Officer Percentage Interest Rates Unexpectedly Decline 4.5 10-Year Government Yield 4 3.5
More informationSummit Strategies Group
October, 208 US Equity: All Cap Russell 000 Index -7.6 -.95 2.4 6.60.27 0.8.8.5 Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index -7.4-4.04 2.9 6.56.24 0.76.75.6 US Equity: Large Cap Russell 000 Index -7.08 -.5 2.67
More informationFirst Quarter 2017 Investment Review. Prepared by: Meketa Investment Group CHICAGO, IL (312)
First Quarter 2017 Investment Review Prepared by: Meketa Investment Group CHICAGO, IL 60661 (312) 474-0900 MARKET SUMMARY - 1Q17 CAPITAL MARKETS Index MARKET SNAPSHOT MARCH 31, 2017 Qtr One Year Three
More informationNOVEMBER 2018 Capital Markets Update
NOVEMBER 2018 Market commentary U.S. ECONOMICS Non-farm payrolls added 155,000 jobs in November, missing expectations of 198,000, and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%. The labor force participation
More informationJune market performance. Index. Index. Global economies
JULY 2017 In June markets were influenced by political developments in the UK and US and more hawkish commentary from central bankers suggesting that soft inflation is only transitory. European equities
More informationThe Market Pendulum. April 18, 2016 by Joseph Amato of Neuberger Berman
Can 2016 earnings justify today s valuations? The Market Pendulum April 18, 2016 by Joseph Amato of Neuberger Berman Traditionally, equity people are supposed to be more optimistic than bond people, but
More informationCurrent Yield Curves. High-Grade Municipal Bonds 5.00% 5.00% 0.00% % 4.00% 2.00%
FCI ADVISORS YIELD ANALYSIS December 4, 2018 U.S. Treasury Treasury Yields Yields Municipal Muni Bond Yields Yields 1 U.S. Agency Agency Yields Yields - Active Bonds Coupon Maturity YTM Maturity YTM Tax-Equiv.
More informationEconomic and Market Overview Fourth Quarter Economic and Market Overview
Economic and Market Overview 1 The following commentary summarizes prior financial market activity, and uses data obtained from public sources. This commentary is intended for one-on-one use with a client
More informationApril 2016 Market Commentary
April 2016 Market Commentary Domestic equity indices finished the month mixed, while international developed markets ended higher. The falling U.S. dollar continued to reverberate across markets, especially
More informationExplore the themes and thinking behind our decisions.
ASSET ALLOCATION COMMITTEE VIEWPOINTS Fourth Quarter 2016 These views are informed by a subjective assessment of the relative attractiveness of asset classes and subclasses over a 6- to 18-month horizon.
More informationMarket Commentary for Q2 2018
Market Commentary for Q2 2018 Our Commitment to You: Periodically, it is helpful to the people we service, our clients, to re-affirm who we are at Crew Capital Mgmt. We don t just manage money. We help
More information2016 Investment Outlook: Crosscurrents
216 Investment Outlook: Crosscurrents January 13, 216 MODERATED BY: Celia Dallas Chief Investment Strategist Wade O Brien Managing Director, Global Investment Research Christopher Hunter Managing Director,
More informationGlobal Macroeconomic Monthly Review
Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review April 2019 Dr. Gil Michael Bufman, Chief Economist Arie Tal, Research Economist Economics Department, Capital Markets Division 1 Please see disclaimer on the last page
More informationReturns among non-us equity markets were even higher. The MSCI World ex USA Index, which reflects non-us
2017 Market Review At the beginning of 2017, a common view among money managers and analysts was that the financial markets would not repeat their strong returns from 2016. Many cited the uncertain global
More informationQ2 Quarterly Market Review Second Quarter 2015
Q2 Quarterly Market Review Second Quarter 2015 Quarterly Market Review Second Quarter 2015 This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins
More informationPortfolio Navigator funds Quarterly performance and commentary
Navigator funds Quarterly performance and commentary June 30, 2018 291426 AA VUL (7/18) The Navigator funds Performance Quarter ending 6/30/18 3 month YTD 1 year 3 year 5 year Since Inception* (Class 2)
More informationFinancial Market Outlook: Stock Rally Continues with Faster & Stronger GDP Rebound, Earnings Recovery & Liquidity
For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: Further Stock Gains with Macro Sweet Spot & Earnings Recovery.
More informationMarket Watch. July Review Global economic outlook. Australia
Market Watch Latest monthly commentary from the Investment Markets Research team at BT. Global economic outlook Australia Available data for the June quarter is consistent with a moderation in GDP growth
More informationOur goal is to provide a clear perspective on the global financial markets, as well as a logical framework to discuss them, thereby enabling
Our goal is to provide a clear perspective on the global financial markets, as well as a logical framework to discuss them, thereby enabling investors to recognize both the opportunities and risks that
More informationPrudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy March 2010
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy March 2010 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationMoving On Up Today s Economic Environment
Moving On Up Today s Economic Environment Presented by PFM Asset Management LLC Gray Lepley, Senior Analyst, Portfolio Strategies November 8, 2018 PFM 1 U.S. ECONOMY Today s Agenda MONETARY POLICY GEOPOLITICAL
More informationFebruary market performance. Equity Markets Index Price Indices. Property Index Price Index
MARCH 2017 In February, global equity markets continued to trend higher boosted by optimism about US growth and reasonably good economic and corporate earnings data. In the United States, the Standard
More informationB-GUIDE: Market Outlook
Quarterly Market Outlook: Quarter 1 2018 on 5 th January 2018 Investment Outlook for 1 st Quarter 2018 Accelerating Global Economy Supports the Rising Earnings Equity Thailand US Europe Japan Asia Bond
More informationExplore the themes and thinking behind our decisions.
ASSET ALLOCATION COMMITTEE VIEWPOINTS First Quarter 2017 These views are informed by a subjective assessment of the relative attractiveness of asset classes and subclasses over a 6- to 18-month horizon.
More informationGLOBAL EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY KEY TAKEAWAYS 2017 was an excellent year for international equities, particularly EM. We favor the United States and EM equities for tactical global asset allocations
More informationCity of Fort Walton Beach, Florida Beal Memorial Cemetery Perpetual Care Fund
City of Fort Walton Beach, Florida Beal Memorial Cemetery Perpetual Care Fund Investment Performance Review Investment Advisors Steven Alexander, CTP, CGFO, CPPT, Managing Director Khalid Yasin, CIMA,
More informationGlobal Macroeconomic Monthly Review
Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review October 16 th, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department Please see disclaimer on the last page of this report 1 Key Issues Global
More informationCapital Markets Review First Quarter 2015
Capital Markets Review First Quarter 2015 First-quarter 2015 saw a meaningful increase in volatility across asset classes, as numerous global forces continued to evolve. Everything from stocks and bonds
More informationChanging interest rates THE IMPACT ON YOUR PORTFOLIO
Changing interest rates THE IMPACT ON YOUR PORTFOLIO PGIM Investments helping investors participate in global market opportunities At PGIM Investments, we consider it a great privilege and responsibility
More informationGlobal Investment Strategy Report
Global Investment Strategy Global Investment Strategy Report June 5, 2017 Tracie McMillion, CFA Head of Global Asset Allocation Strategy Weekly market insights from the Global Investment Strategy team»
More informationMarket Update: Broad Market Returns and Indicators
Market Update Eckler Ltd. collects information directly from sources believed to be reliable. Eckler Ltd. does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of the information either
More informationPeralta Community College District Investment Performance Update
Peralta Community College District Investment Performance Update February 25, 2016 Neuberger Berman Trust Company N.A. Table of Contents I. INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE REVIEW AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2015 II. INVESTMENT
More informationASSET ALLOCATION STRATEGY
ASSET ALLOCATION STRATEGY Fourth quarter 2014 outlook Content Investment strategy Economic outlook Asset class outlook Paul English, MBA, CFA Senior Vice President Tara Proper, CFA AVP Capital Markets
More informationEconomic Outlook. DMS Economic Outlook for next 12 months
Economic Outlook DMS Economic Outlook for next 12 months GDP growth has rebounded from a dismal first quarter and GDP is growing modestly at 2.6%. Personal income growth has improved in recent months and
More informationGlobal Economics Monthly Review
Global Economics Monthly Review January 8 th, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist The Finance Division, Economics Department Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report 1 Key Issues Global
More informationSeizing Opportunities in 2011 and Beyond
Seizing Opportunities in 2011 and Beyond Why We re Here Today Markets displayed lower volatility in 2010. But serious questions remain: Are interest rates headed higher? Where can investors find yield?
More informationMarket Commentary - 2nd Quarter 2017
3 Months YTD 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 1 Years As the economy picks up we will need to be gradual when adjusting our policy parameters, so as to ensure that our stimulus accompanies the recovery amid the
More informationThe Investors Newsletter
I N S I D E T H I S I S S U E 1 Perspectives 2 Summary of Indexes 3 Fundamentals & Indicators 4 Index Chart & Analysis economic reports from the past quarter are not indicating the push into higher prices
More informationEconomic Views Brief OPTIMISM DOMINATES THE 2018 OUTLOOK.
Economic Views Brief Russell T. Price, CFA, Senior Economist December 14, 2017 OPTIMISM DOMINATES THE 2018 OUTLOOK. The U.S. economy appears set to enter 2018 with good momentum and solid fundamentals.
More informationTable 1: Economic Growth Measures
US Equities continued to advance in the second quarter, with the S&P 500 returning 5.2% for the quarter and 7.1% for the first half. Energy was by far the best performing sector in the quarter, returning
More information2013 OVERVIEW: There are mainly 3 reasons for the rebound;
2013 OVERVIEW: The China market has rebounded since end of June; the upward move has been about 15% from the bottom and it is the first significant move for China Markets, which have been in a range since
More informationTexas Tech University System
Texas Tech University System Capital Markets Overview October 2016 Timothy Bruce, Partner Index Performance Summary as of July 29 2016 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1 Q2 July YTD Barclays US STRIPS
More information