Secretaría de Estado DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

Transcription

1 Secretaría de Estado DOMINICAN REPUBLIC Program Impact Evaluation Youth & Employment Program José Luis Polanco Director, Project Implementation Unit

2 The Issue of Youth Employment in the DR The year-old Age Group Represents 33% of the country s working-age population and about 25% of the labor force The rate of economic activity for these youth is 53%; much lower than the rate for adults of 74-81% Unemployment among youth is four times larger than among adults: 30.3% and 10% respectively. Source: United Nations Proposal from the Dominican Republic on Employment, Youth, and Migration. November 2007.

3 The Issue of Youth Employment in the DR The year-old Age Group Only 36% of unemployment is the result of layoffs while 64% of the unemployed is searching or wants to look for his/her first job but cannot succeed. The unemployment rate of men in this age group is 20%; females up to 43% Female youth represent 60% of unemployed youth A fifth of the population in the age group yearsold, 353,443 Dominican youth, are excluded from both the education system and the labor market

4 Youth & Employment Program Objetives Increase the employment opportunities of lower-income youth by improving the supply of training and the demand for labor force from the private sector

5 Profile of the Beneficiary Youth Is years old Has not completed secondary school Has abandoned the school Wants to work Is willing to be trained Is unemployed, subemployed or inactive Belongs to the poorest 40%

6 Relevant Characteristics Self-targeted Training courses determined by private sector demand Training courses contracting through competitive bidding Training course selection and supervision supported by INFOTEP (National Training Agency) Experimental design for impact evaluation; unique in Latin America & the Caribbean

7 Program Structure SET publishes bidding documents ICAPs & companies develop courses ICAPs present proposals to SET SET supported by INFOTEP selects courses ICAP sends list of 30 eligible people SET selects a final list Lecture Phase (ICAPs) Internship Phase (companies) INFOTEP supervises both Phases

8 First Phase: Youth & Employment Program In its First Phase the Program had 4 calls: 660 youth in the Pilot Call 5,750 youth in the 2 nd Call 15,000 youth in the 3 rd Call 5,600 youth in the 4 th Call

9 Participation of the Institutes of Vocational Training (ICAPs) 32 ICAPs participated in the second call 45 ICAPs were selected in the third call A total of 53 ICAPs participated in the 4 th call 21 ICAPs have participated in three calls and 29 in 2 calls.

10 Distribution of participants by Gender and by Region 42 % women participated in the pilot phase 54 % during the second 58% during the third, and 61 % in the fourth call By Regions, the south obtained 100% in the pilot phase, 60% in the second call and 43% in the third call. The north region had 23% in the 2nd and 3rd calls The East had 14% y 24%

11 Beneficiaries Distribution of the Program Beneficiaries, According to Gender Bid Male Female Total Amount % Amount % Amount % First Second 2, , , Third 6, , , Fourth 2, , Total 11, , , Source: UTE SET/BID, Loan BID 1183/OC-DR. Registration File for the Program applicants.

12 Mapping of graduates of the program

13 Main Sectors Attended Sectors COMERCE AND SERVICES INDUSTRY FARMING OTHERS Courses % % 20.70% % % Total % Commerce and service have been the most dynamic sectors of the economy within the last years in Dom. Rep.

14 Impact Evaluation As of now, two data surveys have taken place withing the second call. Information collected from a Baseline and two follow-up surveys. Beneficiaries Controls Date Survey 1 $ 786 $563 May-July (2005) Survey 2 $ 1111 $750 March-May (2006)

15 Opinion of young beneficiaries: Technical skills Lecture Phase Ninety percent said equipment and materials were sufficient or more than sufficient. Ninety-two percent said the professor always offered opportunities to participate. Ninety-seven percent said they had good or very good interaction with classmates.

16 Opinion of young beneficiaries Do you think that the acquired knowledge in the classrooms that you have received, about the following aspects, are very useful, useful, of little useful or non useful? a. Knowledge relative to life skills for the job (self-esteem, values, behavior) b. Basic Knowledge (basic math and communication) c. Technical skills relevant for the job d. Other type of acquired knowledge Very Useful 62% 52% 54% 30% Useful 35% 45% 42% 38% Little Useful 3% 3% 2% 2% Not useful 0.50% 1% 2% 5%

17 Opinion of young beneficiaries: Could you apply the knowledge of the course to the internship? The personal treatment with bosses or supervisors was? The personal treatment with colleagues was For me the internship was For me the internship was Internship Phase Always 65% Very Good 51 49% Much better of what was Expected 38% Very Useful 55% Almost always 18% Good 41% 47% Better than expected 37% useful 38% Sometimes Not Good Not Bad 7% 4% Same as expected 16% Little useful 5% 12% Almost never or never 5% Bad 1% 0% Worst or much worst as expected 8% Not useful 2%

18 Opinion of young beneficiaries: Internship Phase 37% reported receiving at least one additional benefit from the company (lunch, transportation bonuses, and/or cash) 88% reported that the internship was supervised by the ICAP 96 % considered that with the internship they acquired knowledge and skills required to perform the job.

19 Beneficiaries Opinion: General Aspects After having participated in the Program, Would you say that the following aspects have helped very much, little or nothing to perform your current job or any job performed since the end of the Program? Very much little nothing a. Habits acquired (Punctuality, responsibility) 94% 4% 2% b. Technical Knowledge of the duties. 85% 9% 6% c. Having achieved greater confidence in your capacities 94% 4% 1% d. Knowledge of machinery or tools 79% 13% 7% e. Capacity to work with other colleagues (Team Work) 94% 4% 1% f. Capacity to solve new problems 90% 7% 3% g. Greater self confidence 97% 2% 1%

20 Evaluation and Methodology Strategy Thanks to the design, the control group is statistically the same as the treatment. The impact is measured by comparing the indicators of the two groups The estimates are accompanied by the standard error, to determine the statistical significance and construct confidence intervals.

21 Evaluation Indicators Employment Rate Medical Insurance Wages Both a statistical analysis (at the time of the survey) and dynamic (labor history) was performed

22 Distribution of the Sample by age and gender First Survey Controls Beneficaries Total Second Survey Controls Beneficiaries Total ,111 1,856 Women ,041 57% 55% 56% 58% 55% 56% Man % <= % % % % % % 67 9% % 89 8% % 156 8% % % % % / % >= % % % % % %

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24 Flow of beneficiaries during the evaluation Started of technical skills lecture phase Completed lecture phase (93%) Abandoned lecture phase (7%) Started internship (85%) Did not start internship (15%) 23% found employment 12% pregnant/ take care of children 11% sick or accident 5% didn't like/not what was expected 22% found employment 10% pregnant/ take care of children 9% internship not offered/ was not called 7% sick 4% study Participated in internship (91%) Have not finished the internship (9%) 17% encontró trabajo 11% embarazo o cuidado de niños 8% no era lo que esperaba

25 OCCUPATION RATE This objective doesn t seem to have been achieved during the months following the end of program. However, as of July 2005, a statistically significant difference can be observed between the two groups levels of employment Again, at the time of the second survey, another drop in this difference is observed, the occupation rate of the beneficiaries reaches 61% and with the control rate to 58% (March, April, May).

26 Occupation Rate: beneficiaries and 70% controls 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 8/04 10/04 12/04 2/05 4/05 6/05 8/05 10/05 12/05 2/06 4/06-10% -20% tratados controles diferencia ic ic

27 Results: Occupation Rate The following observed: Women (3,6%) Years Old (9.1%) impact differentials are Youth with primary education (5.60%) Santo Domingo (6,3%) and the East (12.9%) However, excluding in the case of differentiation by region, the margins of error are large and the differences are insignificant.

28 Occupation Rate: Beneficiaries and Controls in Santo Domingo 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% 8/04 10/04 12/04 2/05 4/05 6/05 8/05 10/05 12/05 2/06 4/06 tratados controles diferencia ic ic

29 Occupation Rate: Beneficiaries and Controls 80% in the East 60% 40% 20% 0% 8/04 10/04 12/04 2/05 4/05 6/05 8/05 10/05 12/05 2/06 4/06-20% -40% -60% tratados controles diferencia ic ic

30 Results: On the Job Medical Insurance At the time of the survey, the difference between the proportion of ensured and employed beneficiaries and controls is more than 5% (with a margin of error of 2.9%) This result is especially significant for men. With Women the difference is smaller and insignificant. The largest effect is observable in the east of the country (17.3% with a margin of error of 7.5%).

31 Medical Insurance Affiliation: Beneficiaries and Controls 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 8/04 10/04 12/04 2/05 4/05 6/05 8/05 10/05 12/05 2/06 4/06-10% -20% tratados controles diferencia ic ic

32 Results: Labor Income Participation in the Program has no significant effect on income level. In the first evaluation, positive but not very precise impacts are observed. However, these effects have not been sustained during the second measure. Beneficiaries Controls Difference Margin of Error Survey 1 $3,236 $2,742 $494 $215 Survey 2 $3,829 $3,589 $240 $222

33 Results: Labor Income However, in some population groups the observed effect is bigger and slightly more significant. Controls Beneficiaries Difference Women $1,918 $2,311 $392 $ 153 $ 139 $209 Santo Domingo $3,754 $ 274 $4,180 $ 223 $426 $355 East $3,089 $ 424 $3,809 $ 297 $720 $503

34 Some Unintended Effects in Young Beneficiaries The participation rate, at the time of registration (Baseline) was 76% for Beneficiaries and Controls. (PUCMM 2007) The statistically significant difference in the proportion of youths who report a high category of self-esteem: 62% of the beneficiaries versus 38% of the control group. (PUCMM 2007)

35 Some Unintended Effects on Young Beneficiaries More women and men from this group of beneficiaries have used condoms during the three most recent relations, as compared with the control group. (World Bank 2007) Women between years of age who live in Santo Domingo and received the benefits of the program less likely to suffer from sexually transmitted diseases. (World Bank 2007)

36 Some Unfound Effects in Young Beneficiaries Participation in the program decreased the likelihood of participation in fights in the 12 months preceding the survey. (WB 2007). The Program decreases women s likelihood of being a crime victim when they complete the two steps of treatment. (BM 2007)

37 Some Unintended Effects in Young Beneficiaries With regard to the effect on the number of alcoholic beverages consumed during the past 4 weeks, 5 out of 8 young people have increased the consumption when they only complete only the school (lecture) phase, while in 7 out of 8 young people there is a decrease when they complete both the school phase and the internship (BM 2007)

38 MUCHAS GRACIAS!!!!