Monetary Policy Statement: Surprising 25 bps hike
|
|
- Audrey Paul
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 REP-300 Monetary Policy Statement: Surprising 25 bps hike 31-Jan-2019 AHL Research D: UAN: , Ext: 322 F: E: Best Domestic Equity House Top 25 Companies Corporate Finance House of the Year Best Equity Research Analyst 1
2 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 SBP Increases Policy Rate by 25bps to 10.25% The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) from 10% to 10.25% in its latest Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) announced today. Moreover, the Reverse Repo (ceiling) and Repo rates have been effectively set at 10.75% and 8.75%, respectively. Key Takeaways from the Monetary Policy Statement Stabilization measures implemented during past 12 months are taking hold Visible signs of deceleration in domestic demand Increase in financial inflows from friendly countries reducing pressures on country s external accounts CPI inflation for 1HFY19 at 6% is much higher than 3.8% observed for the same period last year. Inflation moderated during past two months due to sharp fall in prices of perishable food items and downward adjustment of petroleum prices Core inflation registered an increase of 8.4% YoY (54-month high) in Dec-18 (5.5% in Dec-17, 12 Month Average 7.1%), showing broad based inflation in the economy Fiscal Deficit for 1HFY19 is expected to be higher than last year, Fiscal consolidation remains a challenge The Current Account Deficit recorded a muted 4% YoY reduction to USD 8 billion during 1HFY19 SBP s projected headline inflation for FY19 is expected to remain between %, which is above the govt. annual target of 6%, whereas GDP growth rate is projected at 4% for FY19 Lower output from agriculture and Large Scale Manufacturing is expected to contribute to the slowdown in GDP growth The increase in the policy rate by 25bps is attributable primarily to the following factors: Persistently high fiscal deficit (1.4% of GDP for 1QFY19, highest in past 7 years) Stubbornly high Current Account deficit (USD8 bn or 5.4% of GDP for 1HFY19) Government s increased reliance on SBP for budgetary borrowing (PKR3.7 trn for 1 st Jul- 18 th Jan 2019, up by 4.3x) Presence of underlying inflationary pressures (Core inflation at 8.4% for Dec-18) Exhibit: Historical Real Interest Rate Real Interest Rate (RHS) Policy Rate CPI 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Source: SBP, AHL Research 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2
3 Beneficial for Banks Earnings We view that the banking sector earnings will benefit from the latest 25bps hike in the policy rate. We reiterate that banks with a low PIB base and high Current Accounts proportion are to be amongst the major beneficiaries. Banks topline with greater exposure towards advances would also benefit more from higher rates on lending. Low PIB base and higher exposure towards short-term securities i.e., MTBs is helpful for banks as repricing of assets would fuel investment yields. We also highlight that banks with a high PIB exposure may see unrealized marked-to-market losses, which will affect book values. A high current accounts base would mute the impact of rising rates on cost of deposits. We highlight BOP to benefit the most from rising rates owing to a very healthy exposure towards advances coupled with the fact that there are negligible PIBs on its investment book. We also highlight BAFL to be a major beneficiary from the AHL banking universe, with higher than average universe current accounts proportion (43% against 39%), lower than average PIB proportions (10.2% against 11.4%) and stellar ADR of 70%, second only to FABL in the industry (AHL universe average of 53.7%). Exhibit: Current Accounts/Total Deposits and PIBs/Total Assets (%) Current Accounts Proportion PIB / Total Assets ADR (net) BOP AKBL MCB HBL UBL BAFL ABL NBP Average Source: Company Financials, AHL Research Exhibit: Impact of 25bps Increase in Policy Rate Company Impact on 2019 EPS % of 2019 Earnings BOP % MCB % BAFL % ABL % HBL % AKBL % UBL % Source: PSX, AHL Research 3
4 Negative bearings for others Levered companies to face the incremental financial cost Interest rate hike has negative bearings for companies with outstanding debt balances (short and / or long). Post the latest monetary policy decision, earnings of companies with higher financial leverage positions will become subject to rise in finance costs. As per recent accounts, we highlight DGKC, FFBL, PSO, MLCF, ENGRO, ASTL, NCL and NML to be major losers given the higher quantum of debt in their capital structure. Moreover, companies with high dividend yield (DY) may also struggle in the rising interest rate scenario amid lower relative appeal as compared to return on bank deposits. Exhibit: Impact of 25bps Increase in Policy Rate Company D/E (x) Impact on 2019 EPS % of 2019 Earnings DGKC 0.46 (0.14) -1.95% FFBL 2.73 (0.06) -1.73% PSO 1.03 (0.54) -1.72% MLCF 0.73 (0.07) -1.51% ENGRO 0.67 (0.41) -1.10% ASTL 0.82 (0.07) -1.09% NCL 1.52 (0.06) -0.53% NML 0.30 (0.08) -0.49% ACPL 0.29 (0.06) -0.42% EFERT 0.62 (0.04) -0.30% FFC 0.81 (0.03) -0.28% Source: Company Financials, AHL Research 4
5 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19F Outlook We believe the SBP might increase the policy rate by another 25bps during CY19 contingent to finalization of the IMF program in next couple of months. The contractionary monetary policy is required to curb growing inflationary pressure and imports via compression of domestic demand. Moreover, international oil and commodity prices are expected to play a vital role as stabilizing/increasing int l oil prices are expected to be negative for inflation and balance of payment. Exhibit: Historical GDP Growth (%) Source: MoF, AHL Research 5
6 Analyst Certification: The research analyst(s) is (are) principally responsible for preparation of this report. The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject security (ies) or sector (or economy), and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report. In addition, we currently do not have any interest (financial or otherwise) in the subject security (ies). Furthermore, compensation of the Analyst(s) is not determined nor based on any other service(s) that AHL is offering. Analyst(s) are not subject to the supervision or control of any employee of AHL s non-research departments, and no personal engaged in providing non-research services have any influence or control over the compensatory evaluation of the Analyst(s). Equity Research Ratings Arif Habib Limited (AHL) uses three rating categories, depending upon return form current market price, with Target period as December 2018 for Target Price. In addition, return excludes all type of taxes. For more details kindly refer the following table; Rating BUY HOLD SELL Description Upside* of subject security(ies) is more than +10% from last closing of market price(s) Upside* of subject security(ies) is between -10% and +10% from last closing of market price(s) Upside* of subject security(ies) is less than -10% from last closing of market price(s) * Upside for Power Generation Companies (Ex. KEL) is upside plus dividend yield. Equity Valuation Methodology AHL Research uses the following valuation technique(s) to arrive at the period end target prices; Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Dividend Discount Model (DDM) Sum of the Parts (SoTP) Justified Price to Book (JPTB) Reserved Base Valuation (RBV) Risks The following risks may potentially impact our valuations of subject security (ies); Market risk Interest Rate Risk Exchange Rate (Currency) Risk Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by Research analysts at Arif Habib Limited (AHL). This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. This publication is intended only for distribution to the clients of the Company who are assumed to be reasonably sophisticated investors that understand the risks involved in investing in equity securities. The information contained herein is based upon publicly available data and sources believed to be reliable. While every care was taken to ensure accuracy and objectivity, AHL does not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such. In particular, the report takes no account of the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of investors. The information given in this document is as of the date of this report and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with this information. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. AHL reserves the right to make modifications and alterations to this statement as may be required from time to time. However, AHL is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. AHL is committed to providing independent and transparent recommendation to its client and would be happy to provide any information in response to specific client queries. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This document is provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for any investment decision. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Each recipient of this document should make such investigation as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult his or her own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such investment. AHL or any of its affiliates shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may be arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Disclosure required under Research Analyst Regulations, 2015: In order to avoid any conflict of interest, we hereby disclosed that; Arif Habib Limited (AHL) has shareholding in EFERT, NBP, NCL, SNGP, and BOP 6
Daily Call. PTI Govt s First Major Economic Decision to save PKR 94bn REP September 17,
REP- 300 Gas Price Hike PTI Govt s First Major Economic Decision to save PKR 94bn f1 Old & New Gas Prices PKR/MMBTU Old New Change Domestic (1st Slab) 110.0 121.0 10.0% Domestic (2nd Slab) 110.0 127.0
More informationKSE-100: Profitability portrays a 9.6% YoY improvement during CY17 5-March-2018
REP-300 KSE-100: Profitability portrays a 9.6% YoY improvement during CY17 5-March-2018 Analyst: AHL Research ahl-research@arifhabibltd.com +92 21 3246 2742 www.arifhabibltd.com www.jamapunji.pk Best Domestic
More informationDaily Call. 2016: Performance Review Equities PSX Rally Strongest in Asia-Pac Region REP December 31, 2016
1 11 12 13 14 15 16 FY6 FY7 FY8 FY9 FY1 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 REP 3 16: Performance Review Equities PSX Rally Strongest in AsiaPac Region CY16 CY15 Return (PKR) % 45.7 2.1 Return (USD) % 45.6 (2.)
More informationTHIS TIME IS DIFFERENT
THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT BANKING SECTOR 25 th September 2017 Aijaz Siddique aijaz.siddique@nextcapital.com.pk +92-21-35169515 Research Entity Notification No.: REP-116 See last page for analyst certification
More informationSpectrum Securities Limited
Cement Sector Reveiw (REP-141) Cement Sector: Higher coal price & PKR devaluation errodes profit The cement sector performance was remained subdued posted a decline of 1% YoY in PAT however profit before
More informationDaily Call. Equities. Attractive Valuations Represent Buying Opportunity. REP- 300 Market Strategy. August 23, 2017
REP Market Strategy Attractive Valuations Represent Buying Opportunity Daily Call Equities Market Return Asia Pacfic Region Return (USD) Aug17TD* CY17TD* China 1.4% 18.2% MSCI Emerg 0.6% 24.4% Taiwan 0.5%
More informationDaily Call November 17, 2017
REP- 300 Market Strategy BAML Conference: Opinions Remain Mixed Equities Return (USD) CY17TD May-17TD FY17 MSCI Emerg 30.5% 11.9% 21.2% MSCI World 17.8% 7.1% 16.5% MSCI Develop 16.3% 6.5% 15.9% Pakistan
More informationFY17A FY18E FY19F FY20F FY21F
Power Generation Research Nishat Power Limited (NPL) Declining yields but still attractive! BUY Company Name: Symbol June, 2018 Nishat Power Limited NPL Target Price PKR 34 Upside 21% Key Statistics Current
More informationMutual Funds View Point Stability Rating
Mutual Funds View Point Stability Rating Table of Contents Assets Under Management Share Number of Funds MTBs and PIBs Money Review October 2018 Category AUs Number of funds share Stock Performance Deposits
More informationFROM INVESTMENT DESK ECONOMY AND CAPITAL MARKETS UPDATE
INVESTMENT FACT SHEET FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE 2018 FROM INVESTMENT DESK ECONOMY AND CAPITAL MARKETS UPDATE 01 KEY INDICATORS CPI Inflation Trade Deficit (USD mn) Remittances (USD mn) Current A/C (USD mn)
More informationPakistan Fertilizer Sector
Aug-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Fertilizer Sector Report Pressure on margin set to continue; Maintain Marketweight Chemical sector Performance 3M 6M 12M Absolute %
More informationHABIB BANK LIMITED Profitability to Recover from CY19 Onwards
15 th October 2018 REP-091 HABIB BANK LIMITED Profitability to Recover from CY19 Onwards Research Department 111-555-ASL (275) April research@abbasisecurities.com - 2016 KATS Symbol HBL Reuters Symbol
More informationBank Al Falah Limited
Bank Al Falah Limited Enticing valuations that can t be ignored Friday December 6, 2013 BUY Target Price Dec 14: PKR 32 Current Price: PKR 25 Bloomberg Reuters BAFL.PA BAFL.KA MCAP (USD mn) 315 12M ADT
More informationINITIATION. BANK AL-HABIB LIMITED (BAHL) June 17, 2014 BUY
Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 INITIATION EQUITY RESEARCH BANK AL-HABIB LIMITED (BAHL) June 17, 2014 BUY Price Target : PKR 54.5/share Closing
More informationJUBILEE LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY LTD INVESTORS' OUTLOOK
JUBILEE LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY LTD INVESTORS' OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2018 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 INVESTORS' OUTLOOK ECONOMY
More informationFROM INVESTMENT DESK ECONOMY AND CAPITAL MARKETS UPDATE
INVESTMENT FACT SHEET FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH 2018 FROM INVESTMENT DESK ECONOMY AND CAPITAL MARKETS UPDATE 01 KEY INDICATORS CPI Inflation Trade Deficit (USD mn) Remittances (USD mn) Current A/C (USD mn)
More informationBanking Sector Profits down 18% YoY in 1Q2018 Profits excluding pension cost & capital gains +7%
Pakistan Equity Banks Sector Research May 2, 2018 REP 057 Banking Sector Profits down 18% YoY in 1Q2018 Profits excluding pension cost & capital gains +7% Umair Naseer AC umair.naseer@topline.com.pk Tel:
More informationPAKISTAN ECONOMIC REVIEW FY18 GDP Growth at 13 year High of 5.8%
Pakistan Equity Economy April 26, 2018 REP 057 PAKISTAN ECONOMIC REVIEW FY18 GDP Growth at 13 year High of 5.8% Topline Research research@topline.com.pk Tel: +9221 3530 3338 40 Topline Securities, Pakistan
More informationMCB Bank Limited. MCB - Expanding its wings. WE Detailed Report
1 KEY DATA KATS Code MCB Reuters Code MCB.KA Current Price (Rs) 280.71 Year High, Low (Rs) 299, 260.65 Market Cap (Rs' bn) 284 Market Cap (US$ mn) 2,840 Shares Outstanding (mn) 1,012 Free Float (%) 40%
More informationCommercial Banking. Sector Overview
Commercial Banking Sector Overview June 2018 Banking Snapshot Key Figures Deposit Share Dec17 Dec16 Scheduled Banks 34 100% 100% Commercial Banks 30 99.4% 99.4% Domestic Banks 25 98.1% 98.2% Local Private
More informationIGI Life. Funds Performance Report January IGI Life Insurance Limited
IGI Life Funds Performance Report January 2019 IGI Life Insurance Limited July 2015 Macro Review and Outlook: Headline inflation at +7.2% above market consensus CPI Inflation On the domestic macroeconomic
More informationIGI Life. Funds Performance Report January 2018
IGI Life Funds Performance Report January 2018 IGI Life Insurance Limited FUND MANAGER REPORT July 2015 Macro Review and Outlook: CPI inflation clocks in at +4.42%YoY; Food prices gain steam As per the
More informationUnited Bank Limited. Improving fundamentals already priced in! Wednesday November 13, 2013 NEUTRAL. Investment Thesis
United Bank Limited Improving fundamentals already priced in! Wednesday November 13, 2013 NEUTRAL Target Dec 14: PKR 133 Current Price: PKR 127 Bloomberg Reuters UBL.PA UBL.KA MCAP (USD mn) 1,443 12M ADT
More informationDaily Call. General Election 2018 The Captain To Take Strike REP-300. July 26, Thumping victory on the cards for Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI)
REP-300 Market Strategy General Election 2018 The Captain To Take Strike Improve Governance FBR reforms Increase in tax rates Interest Rate Cuts PSEs restructuring Privatization programs Incentives for
More informationIGI Life. Funds Performance Report February 2018
IGI Life Funds Performance Report February 2018 IGI Life Insurance Limited FUND MANAGER REPORT July 2015 Macro Review and Outlook: CPI for the month of Feb-18 remains relatively subdued: For the CPI Inflation
More informationCommercial Banking. Sector Overview
Commercial Banking Sector Overview June 2017 Banking Snapshot Key Figures Deposit Share Dec16 Dec15 Scheduled Banks 34 100% 100% Commercial Banks 30 99.4% 99.6% Domestic Banks 26 98.2% 98.5% Local Private
More informationEquity Market Analysis
SEPTEMBER Equity Market Analysis KSE-100 Index generated a negative return of ~1.8% in the month of September taking the FYTD return to ~-2% closing at 40,999 points at the month end. The sectors that
More informationBuy. Morning Call. Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL) IFC Capital Injection; EPS Accretive; Revised Earnings, BUY. November 10, 2014
Morning Call November 10, 2014 Bank Al-Falah Limited (BAFL) Banks IFC Capital Injection; EPS Accretive; Revised Earnings, BUY Buy Target Price 38.3 Last Closing Upside 22.3% KSE Code Bloomberg Code Market
More informationJUBILEE LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY LTD
JUBILEE LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY LTD (WINDOW TAKAFUL OPERATIONS) INVESTORS' OUTLOOK (TAKAFUL FUNDS) FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH 2017 TABLE OF CONTENTS REVIEW... 3 MANAGED TAKAFUL FUND... 5 CAPITAL GROWTH TAKAFUL
More informationMarket Pulse. Inter. Expect profits to grow substantially in 2QCY18. Pakistan Fertilizer
Inter Pakistan Fertilizer Expect profits to grow substantially in 2QCY18 Research Entity Number REP-085 We expect IMS Fertilizer Universe to post strong profit growth of 69% YoY for 2QCY18, where core
More informationPakistan Strategy. Govt. Finally Notifies the Much Awaited Hike in Gas Tariff Positive for Economy while Negative for Corporates
Pakistan Equity Strategy October 5, 2018 REP-057 Govt. Finally Notifies the Much Awaited Hike in Gas Tariff Positive for Economy while Negative for Corporates Topline Research research@topline.com.pk Tel:
More informationIGI Life. Funds Performance Report March IGI Life Insurance Limited
IGI Life Funds Performance Report March 20 IGI Life Insurance Limited FUND MANAGER REPORT July 20 Macro Review and Outlook: Headline inflation at +9.4% above market consensus of +8.5% CPI Inflation Domestic
More informationMarket Pulse. Inter. FFBL: Weak pricing power; Sell. Pakistan Fertilizer
Inter Pakistan Fertilizer FFBL: Weak pricing power; Sell Research Entity Number REP-85 We resume coverage on Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Ltd (FFBL), the only local producer of DAP fertilizer, with a Sell
More informationGAIL India NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights CMP. `363 Target Price - 2QFY2013 Result Update Oil & Gas. Investment Period -
2QFY2013 Result Update Oil & Gas October 26, 2012 GAIL India Performance Highlights Quarterly highlights (Standalone) Y/E March (` cr) 2QFY2013 2QFY2012 % chg (yoy) 1QFY2013 % chg (qoq) Net sales 11,361
More informationJUBILEE LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY LTD INVESTORS' OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2015
JUBILEE LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY LTD INVESTORS' OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2015 02/28/2015 Table of Contents Market Review... 1-2 Managed Fund... 3 Capital Growth Fund... 4 Meesaq Fund... 5 Yaqeen
More informationEquity Market Analysis
JANUARY Equity Market Analysis CY19 started itself on a positive note as the benchmark Index KSE100 posted a gain of ~10% in the month of January. Long-awaited foreign buying was seen in the market with
More informationWeekly Review. Outlook. Pakistan Weekly Update StockSmart AKD SECURITIES. AKD Equity Research / Pakistan. 7 March 2014
AKD Equity Research / Pakistan AKD Research research@akdsecurities.net 009221 111 253 111 Indices KSE-100 KSE-30 This week 26,892.23 19,546.91 Last week 25,783.28 18,755.18 Change 4.30% 4.22% Indices KMI-30
More informationFIRST QUARTER REVIEW OF ANNUAL POLICY
India Equity Research Economy RBI Watch FIRST QUARTER REVIEW OF ANNUAL POLICY Strong tightening; broadly as expected July 29, 2008 Monetary measures In its first quarter review of the Annual Policy Statement
More informationTECHNICALS TRICKS - WEEKLY
Monday, 07, 2018 TECHNICALS TRICKS - WEEKLY Notified Research Entity www.jamapunji.pk STOCKS COVERAGE S# Company P# 1 ENGRO 2 2 EFOODS 2 3 AKBL 3 4 NBP 3 5 LOTCHEM 4 6 DOL 4 SUMMARY Make Or Break Point
More informationHFC NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights CMP. `678 Target Price - 1QFY2013 Result Update HFC. Investment Period - Key financials
1QFY2013 Result Update HFC July 11, 2012 HDFC Performance Highlights Particulars (` cr) 1QFY13 4QFY12 % chg (qoq) 1QFY12 % chg (yoy) NII 1,258 1,681 (25.1) 998 26.0 Preprov. profit 1,420 1,849 (23.2) 1194
More informationBanking Sector Earnings to Face Headwinds in CY18
1 st November 2017 Banking Sector Earnings to Face Headwinds in CY18 Research Department 111-555-ASL (275) research@abbasisecurities.com REP-091 Glossary ADR BMR CAGR CYXX Coverage Ratio CPEC IDR Infection
More informationJune 2017 TPL LIFE. Fund Performance Report
June 2017 TPL LIFE Fund Performance Report FUND MANAGER REPORT July 2015 Macro Review and Outlook: CPI inflation for the month of clocked in at 5. YoY as compared to 4. in May 2018. The increase in CPI
More informationEQUITY MONITOR SAAO. NBP: The Banking Giant PKR 64; Target PKR 97; Upside Potential 51.2% Thursday, 26 February, 09
SAAO C A P I T A L EQUITY MONITOR NBP: The Banking Giant PKR 64; Target PKR 97; Upside Potential 51.2% We initiate our BUY recommendation on NBP with a target price of PKR 97 using the DDDM with an upside
More informationCMP (Rs) 775 Upside/ (Downside) (%) (1.4) Market Cap. (Rs bn) 11.4 Free Float (%) 35.0 Shares O/S (mn) 14.7
2QFY18 Result Update November 23, 2017 Market Cap. (Rs bn) 11.4 Free Float (%) 35.0 Shares O/S (mn) 14.7 High Order Book Provides Revenue Visibility (PMPL) has delivered a healthy performance in 2QFY18.
More informationJUBILEE LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY LTD
JUBILEE LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY LTD INVESTORS' OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH 2017 TABLE OF CONTENTS REVIEW... 3 MANAGED FUND... 5 CAPITAL GROWTH FUND... 6 MEESAQ FUND... 7 YAQEEN GROWTH FUND... 8 MANAGED
More informationIn Focus Banks Marketweight
Banks HBL - SELL TP Dec-11: PKR 100 Current Price: PKR 122 Abdul Shakur abdul.shakur@bmacapital.com Stock Statistics Ticker HBL Mkt Cap USD mn 1,423 12M ADT mn shares 0.3 Shares Outstanding mn 1,002 Stock
More informationSTCI Primary Dealer Ltd
Macroeconomic Update: CPI, WPI and IIP Headline CPI inflation for July-18 stood at 4.17%, 75bps lower compared to previous month mainly due to favorable base effect. Retail inflation print for June-18
More informationHabib Bank Limited. HBL: Giant Getting Ginormous. 1 WE Detailed Report
1 Habib Bank Limited HBL: Giant Getting Ginormous KEY DATA KATS Code HBL Reuters Code HBL.KA Current Price (PkR) 181.32 Year High, Low (Rs) 221.90, 167.48 Market Cap (Rs bn) 277 Market Cap (US$ bn) 2.74
More informationThe Week in Review. For the period Dec 3, 2018 Dec 7, News This Week. Stock Market Overview. REP 039
The Week in Review For the period Dec 3, 2018 Dec 7, 2018 News This Week Forex reserves drop to USD14bn SBP hikes interest rate to 10% on inflation fears Consumer inflation clocks in at 6.5% in November
More informationTPL LIFE. Fund Performance Report
TPL LIFE Fund Performance Report 1 FUND MANAGER REPORT July 2015 Macro Review and Outlook: CPI inflation during clocked in at 5.02% YoY (+0.01 MoM) compared to April 2017 at 4.8% YoY (+1.4 MoM). The major
More informationSpectrum Securities Limited
(REP-141) DOL: Fortune favours the bold Nov 07, 2018 Descon Chemical Limited (DOL) posted a tremendous growth in profitability during 1QFY19. This phenomenal growth was witnessed on stable sales volume,
More informationInox Wind BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP Target Price `242 `286. 4QFY2016 Result Update Capital Goods. 3 year price chart
4QFY216 Result Update Capital Goods May 11, 216 Inox Wind Performance Highlights Quarterly Data (Consolidated) ( ` cr) 4QFY16 4QFY15 % chg (yoy) 3QFY16 % chg (qoq) Total Income 1,829 93 96.6 941 94.2 EBITDA
More informationKSE-100 Index Performance from its 6-Month low (Dec 17)
REP-300 KSE-100 Index Performance from its 6-Month low (Dec 17) 16-May-2018 Analyst: AHL Research ahl-research@arifhabibltd.com +92 21 3246 2742 www.arifhabibltd.com www.jamapunji.pk Best Domestic Equity
More informationEquity Market Analysis
OCTOBER Equity Market Analysis The KSE-100 Index finally rebounded during the latter half of the month after Premier successfully negotiated a bailout package worth USD 6 billion from Saudi Arabia. The
More informationGovernment of the Punjab Punjab Pension Fund ANNUAL REPORT
ANNUAL REPORT The Management Committee of (PPF) is pleased to present to Government of the Punjab the Annual Report for the year ended 30 June 2014. FUND SIZE A summary of changes in fund size during FY
More informationFinancial & Business Highlights For the Year Ended June 30, 2017
Financial & Business Highlights For the Year Ended June, 17 17 16 15 14 13 12 Profit and Loss Account Operating Revenue 858 590 648 415 172 174 Investment gains net 5 162 909 825 322 516 Other 262 146
More informationMonetary Policy Review Premature end to the easing cycle?
The monetary policy committee (MPC) maintained status quo for the second policy review running, keeping Repo rate at 6.25%, contrary to market expectations of 25bps cut. Consequently, the reverse repo/msf
More informationANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 21
July 2017 FC Research ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 21 Monetary Policy Review..... 3 Rating Outlook: Moody s... 4 Inflation... 5 M2B & Sector Credit... 7 Reserves & Liquidity...
More informationIGI Life. Funds Performance Report February IGI Life Insurance Limited
IGI Life Funds Performance Report February 2019 IGI Life Insurance Limited FUND MANAGER REPORT July 2015 Macro Review and Outlook: Headline inflation at +8.2% above market consensus CPI Inflation On the
More informationCMP* (Rs) 263 Upside/ (Downside) (%) 7.3. Market Cap. (Rs bn) 635 Free Float (%) 59 Shares O/S (mn) 2,417
2QFY18 Result Update November 01, 2017 Market Cap. (Rs bn) 635 Free Float (%) 59 Shares O/S (mn) 2,417 In-line Performance; Margins to Remain Strong (JSTL) has delivered an in-line performance in 2QFY18
More informationThe Week in Review. For the period Jun 19, 2018 Jun 22, News This Week. Stock Market Overview
The Week in Review For the period Jun 19, 2018 Jun 22, 2018 News This Week KSE-100 A massive fall in the index Forex reserves up USD341mn Moody s downgrades Pakistan s rating to negative on external risks
More informationRefinery Research BYCO Petroleum Pakistan Ltd.
Refinery Research Petroleum Pakistan Ltd. Improving Performance! July 18, 2018 Company Name: Petroleum Pakistan Ltd Symbol Key Statistics Current Price* PKR 11.46 Volume 0.795mn Average daily volume 2.5mn
More informationPakistan State Oil. PSO: Pessimism overplayed. WE Detailed Report
1 KEY DATA KATS Code PSO Reuters Code PSO.KA Current Price (Rs) 198.97 Year High, Low (Rs) 251.74, 198.45 Market Cap (Rs' bn) 49 Market Cap (US$ mn) 496 Shares Outstanding (mn) 247 Free Float (%) 46 Source:
More informationPakistan cement sales +4% YoY in Jul 2018 Local sales +2% YoY, Export sales +15% YoY
Pakistan Equity Cement Sector Research Aug 1, 2018 REP 057 Pakistan cement sales +4% YoY in Jul 2018 Local sales +2% YoY, Export sales +15% YoY Nabeel Khursheed AC nabeel@topline.com.pk Tel: +9221 35303330
More informationDaily Call. Love thy Neighbor. January 18, 2016
Iran compliance Market Strategy Love thy Neighbor (mn bpd) 8.0 7.2 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 - Source: Bloomberg, AHL Research Analyst OPEC Major Members Oil Exports* KSA Source: OPEC Annual Statistical
More informationPunjab National Bank ACCUMULATE. Performance Highlights. CMP `1,115 Target Price `1,259. 3QFY2011 Result Update Banking.
3QFY2011 Result Update Banking January 21, 2011 Punjab National Bank Performance Highlights Particulars (` cr) 3QFY11 2QFY11 % chg (qoq) 3QFY10 % chg (yoy) NII 3,203 2,977 7.6 2,329 37.5 Pre-prov. profit
More informationSTATE BANK OF INDIA RESEARCH
RESULTS REVIEW Share Data Market Cap Rs. 1120.6 bn Price BSE Sensex Rs. 1,765.10 14,785.74 Reuters SBI.BO Bloomberg SBIN IN Avg. Volume (52 Week) 0.98 mn 52-Week High/Low Rs. 1,935 / 894 Shares Outstanding
More informationIn Focus Banks Marketweight
Banks UBL - NEUTRAL Fair Value: PKR 6 Current Price: PKR 7 Abdul Shakur abdul.shakur@bmacapital.com UBL vs KSE Relative Index Chart UBL UBL Mkt Cap USD mn 818 12M ADT mn shares 1.2 Shares Outstanding mn
More informationPakistan Pkit Economy
Pakistan Equity Economy Update Jun 21, 2018 REP 057 Pakistan Pkit Economy Credit Rating Agencies turning Negative Saad Hashemy saad@topline.com.pk Tel: +9221 35303330 Topline Securities, Pakistan www.jamapunji.pk
More informationPakistan Banks. Pak Banks valuations cheapest since time to load up. Industry Update. April 18 th, 2016
Pakistan Banks Industry Update Recommendation TP Upside (%) UBL BUY PKR220 42.4% BAHL BUY PKR60 41.8% HBL BUY PKR225 3 MCB BUY PKR233 14.7% ABL BUY PKR106 18.9% HMB BUY PKR39 30.4% BAFL NEUTRAL PKR27 9.5%
More informationHDFC Bank BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP `2,145 Target Price `2,500. Q3FY2019 Result Update Banking. 3-year price chart. Key financials (Standalone)
Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 Q3FY2019 Result Update Banking Jan 22, 2019 HDFC Bank Performance Highlights BUY CMP `2,145 Target Price `2,500 Particulars (` cr)
More informationGoodyear India ACCUMULATE. Performance Highlights. CMP Target Price `326 `374. 1QCY2012 Result Update Tyres. Key financials
1QCY212 Result Update Tyres June 6, 212 Goodyear India Performance Highlights Y/E December (` cr) 1QCY212 1QCY211 % chg (yoy) 4QCY211 % chg (qoq) Net sales 331 336 (1.6) 395 (16.2) EBITDA 2 24 (18.6) 34
More informationIndian Economy. GDP growth slowed down but remained above the comfortable 7% Manufacturing GVAbp
Indian Economy Economic Growth GDP growth slowed down but remained above the comfortable 7% Domestic economy witnessed 7.1% GDP growth during the first quarter (Apr - Jun) of fiscal 2016-17 (Q1FY17) as
More informationMarket Strategy. The Barrel Drop: Softening Commodity Prices a Mixed Bag For Equity Market. October 20, 2014
Market Strategy October 20, 2014 Commodity The Barrel Drop: Softening Commodity Prices a Mixed Bag For Equity Market The Barrel Drop: Oil Prices Slip to a 4-Year Low Oil prices have undergone a significant
More informationMCB Bank Limited FULL YEAR AND FOURTH QUARTER th February 2009
MCB Bank Limited FULL YEAR AND FOURTH QUARTER 2008 24 th February 2009 Disclaimer THIS PRESENTATION IS BEING PRESENTED TO YOU SOLELY FOR YOUR INFORMATION AND MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED, REDISTRIBUTED OR PASSED
More informationGarware Wall Ropes ACCUMULATE. Performance Highlights CMP. `550 Target Price `618. 2QFY2017 Result Update Textile. Investment Period 12 months
2QFY217 Result Update Textile November 16, 216 Garware Wall Ropes Performance Highlights Quarterly Data (`cr) 2QFY17 2QFY16 % yoy 1QFY17 % qoq Revenue 232 214 8.5 225 3.3 EBITDA 4 26 5.9 31 29.4 Margin
More informationHong Kong Economic Update
Irina Fan Senior Economist irinafan@hangseng.com Joanne Yim Chief Economist joanneyim@hangseng.com May 28 Hong Kong Economic Update Hong Kong s March export growth stayed low at 7.6 yoy, as exports to
More informationNTPC Ltd. Results in line with estimates, BUY for attractive valuations. Power. EBITDA margins up at 26% (+700bps QoQ): EBITDA margins
Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 NTPC Ltd 11 May 2012 105 Power Result Review Rating: BUY Current Price: Rs 148 Target Price: Rs 189 Upside:
More informationSector witnesses 5 Year low margins
REP 057 Pakistan Equity Cement Sector Research November 6, 20 Cement Sector Profits 3%, Pretax Profits 15% YoY YYin 1QFY18 Sector witnesses 5 Year low margins Nabeel Khursheed AC nabeel@topline.com.pk
More informationSimplex Infrastructures
May-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 India Research Infrastructure May 27, 2015 QUARTERLY REVIEW Bloomberg: SINF IN Reuters: SINF.BO HOLD Working capital ease to improve
More informationSIEMENS INDIA LIMITED RESEARCH
RESULTS REVIEW Siemens India Limited Hold Share Data Market Cap Rs. 196.1 bn Price Rs. 581.6 BSE Sensex 14,961.07 Reuters Bloomberg Avg. Volume (52 Week) SIEM.BO SIEM IN 0.2 mn 52-Week High/Low Rs. 1,142.5
More informationHub Power Company Limited
Hub Power Company Limited A safe heaven in shaky market BUY Target Price Jun 14: PKR 72 Current Price: PKR 63 Bloomberg Reuters HUBC.PA HPWR.KA MCAP (USD mn) 691 12M ADT ( USD mn.) 1.0 Shares Outstanding
More informationSpiceJet. Healthy operating performance in Q2. Source: Company Data; PL Research
Healthy operating performance in Q2 November 28, 2016 Rohan Korde rohankorde@plindia.com +91 22 66322235 Rating BUY Price Rs65 Target Price Rs115 Implied Upside 76.9% Sensex 26,316 Nifty 8,114 (Prices
More informationCompany Report. Buy. Reaching new horizons. September 3, For important disclosure and analyst certification, kindly refer to end of the report
Reaching new horizons Company Report September 3, 2012 Construction and Materials We are initiating our coverage on Kohat Cement Company Limited (KOHC) with DCF based December 2012 target price of PKR
More informationJune 2017 TPL LIFE. Fund Performance Report
June 2017 TPL LIFE Fund Performance Report FUND MANAGER REPORT July 2015 Macro Review and Outlook: CPI Inflation CPI inflation for clocked in at 5. YoY as compared to 5.8% in August 2018. The decline in
More informationIVRCL INFRA & PROJECTS LTD RESEARCH
RESULTS REVIEW Share Data Market Cap Rs. 13.8 bn Price Rs. 103.2 BSE Sensex 8,902.6 Reuters Bloomberg Avg. Volume (52 Week) IVRC.BO IVRC IN 0.5 mn 52-Week High/Low Rs. 493.7 / 56.5 Shares Outstanding Valuation
More informationMONETARY POLICY STATEMENT JULY-DECEMBER 2004
MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT JULY-DECEMBER 2004 Monetary Policy Statement (July-December 2004) Monetary Policy Statement July-December, 2004 Macroeconomic Outlook and Monetary Policy Stance Recent global
More informationPantaloon Retail India
Sequential moderation in SSS growth May 16, 211 Gautam Duggad gautamduggad@plindia.com +91 22 66322233 Rating BUY Price Rs241 Target Price Rs332 Implied Upside 37.8% Sensex 18,531 (Prices as on May 13,
More informationFederal Bank BUY. Performance Highlights. Target Price. 1QFY2018 Result Update Banking. Stock Info Sector
1QFY218 Result Update Banking August 2, 217 Federal Bank Performance Highlights Particulars (` cr) 1QFY18 4QFY17 % chg (qoq) 1QFY17 % chg (yoy) NII 8.7 842.4 (5.) 692.7 15.6 Pre-prov. profit 557.9 549.2
More informationCompany Report. Buy. Capacity expansion to fuel earnings growth. March 2, 2012
Company Report March 2, 2012 Fauji Cement Company Limited Construction and Materials Capacity expansion to fuel earnings growth We initiate coverage on Fauji Cement Company Limited (FCCL) with DCF based
More informationKey estimate revision. Financial summary. Year
: price: ABV: How does our one year outlook change? Retain our positive view on the stock. We continue to believe that SUF is a multi-year compounding opportunity in the asset and home financing segments.
More informationCMP* (Rs) 336 Upside/ (Downside) (%) 21 Bloomberg Ticker. MOIL IN Market Cap. (Rs bn) 45 Free Float (%) 24 Shares O/S (mn) 133
4QFY17 Result Update June 06, 2017 Market Cap. (Rs bn) 45 Free Float (%) 24 Shares O/S (mn) 133 Mixed Quarterly Performance; Volume to Remain Strong has reported a mixed performance in 4QFY17. Its blended
More informationEconomic activity gathers pace
Produced by the Economic Research Unit October 2014 A quarterly analysis of trends in the Irish economy Economic activity gathers pace Positive data flow Recovery broadening out GDP growth revised up to
More informationPerformance of Pak-Qatar Unit Funds
1-Nov-18 2-Nov-18 6-Nov-18 7-Nov-18 8-Nov-18 9-Nov-18 13-Nov-18 14-Nov-18 1 16-Nov-18 20-Nov-18 22-Nov-18 23-Nov-18 26-Nov-18 27-Nov-18 28-Nov-18 29-Nov-18 Performance of Pak-Qatar Unit Funds Country Index
More informationUnion Bank of India NEUTRAL. Performance Highlights CMP. `393 Target Price - 2QFY2011 Result Update Banking. Investment Period -
2QFY2011 Result Update Banking October 27, 2010 Union Bank of India Performance Highlights Particulars (` cr) 2QFY11 1QFY11 % chg (qoq) 2QFY10 % chg (yoy) NII 1,536 1,348 13.9 863 77.9 Pre-prov. profit
More informationPPI Contracted for Two Consecutive Months as Prices Fell Further For Agriculture
30 March 2018 ECONOMIC REVIEW February 2018 Producer Price Index Contracted for Two Consecutive Months as Prices Fell Further For Agriculture Producer prices continued to fall for two consecutive months.
More information3rd Bi-Monthly Monetary Policy Review, Kotak Mutual Fund Update as on 9 th August
3rd Bi-Monthly Monetary Policy Review, 2016-17 Kotak Mutual Fund Update as on 9 th August 2016 1 Monetary Measures: Key Rates Measures CRR Unchanged at 4.00% Reverse Repo rate Unchanged at 6.00% (affixed
More informationHDFC Bank BUY. Operating performance strong; improved NIM. CMP `2,268 Target Price `2,500. Q4FY2019 Result Update Banking. 3-year price chart
Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 May-18 Oct-18 Mar-19 Q4FY2019 Result Update Banking Apr 22, 2019 HDFC Bank Operating performance strong; improved NIM Particulars (` cr) Q4FY19 Q3FY19 % chg (qoq) Q4FY18
More informationNTPC LIMITED RESEARCH
RESULTS REVIEW Share Data Market Cap Rs. 1,457.0 bn Price Rs. 176.70 BSE Sensex 9,201.85 Reuters NTPC.BO Bloomberg NATP IN Avg. Volume (52 Week) 2.06 mn 52-Week High/Low Rs. 227 / 113 Shares Outstanding
More informationHavells India. Q4FY16 Result Update In-line result; Consistent improvement in performance. Sector: Consumer Durable CMP: ` 342. Recommendation: BUY
Havells India Q4FY16 Result Update In-line result; Consistent improvement in performance Sector: Consumer Durable CMP: ` 342 Recommendation: BUY Market statistics Current stock price (`) 342 Shares O/S
More information