National Petrochemical Company

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1 Hold 12-month Target Price SAR 20 December 31, 2015 Expected Total Return Price as on Dec-30, Upside to Target Price 2.9% Expected Dividend Yield 17.3% Expected Total Return 20.2% Market Data 52 Week H/L SAR 30.40/16.95 Market Capitalization SAR 8,184 mln Enterprise Value SAR 21,338 mln Shares Outstanding mln Free Float 17.5% 12-Month ADTV (000 s) TASI Weight 0.58% Reuters Code 2002.SE Bloomberg Symbol PETROCH AB 1-Year Price Performance D J F M A M J J A S O N PETROCH TASI TPCHEM Source: Bloomberg PETRO TASI TPCHEM Dec-30, ,906 4,270 Total Change 6-months (22.0%) (23.6%) (26.6%) 1-Year (13.0%) (18.2%) (22.3%) 2-Year (33.9%) (18.9%) (43.0%) Shareholding Structure SIIG 50.0% GOSI 16.3% PPA 16.3% Foreign Ownership (Inc. QFI) 0.03% Public Float 17.5% Subsidy Cuts and Prices Weighs Down We update our models and revise our outlook for E for National Petrochemicals Company (Petrochem), transferring coverage with this report. Following the subsidy cuts amid a large down cycle in global petrochemicals, we are constrained to remain cautious on the sector as well as on Petrochem. Key concerns for such outlook emanates from (i) sharp downturn in EM currencies due to a strong dollar affecting pricing competency for GCC based producers (ii) fuel cost impact with Ethane prices increased to USD 1.75/mbtu poses concerns (iii) margin contraction as feedstock advantage gets parallel with EM competitors and (iv) plummeting product prices especially polyethylene (PE) prices down by -16% YTD and polypropylene by -37%. Valuation appears to be full with 2016E P/E of 9.5x is higher than Advanced trading at 9.1x with a lower risk profile. Petrochem trades marginally cheaper to sector P/E of 10.6x but offers less conviction to us. We maintain our Hold rating but revise target price to SAR from SAR earlier. Large exposure to Asian markets Focus towards Asian market with nearly 65% exports proves to be a positive as such markets are witnessing high growth in demand. However, we expect a near term demand weakening amid a large fall in PE and PP price decline, hence cut revenue estimates for E to +6% CAGR from earlier +7%. We also expect margins to squeeze as price elasticity is not likely to offset any growth in demand and set to further weaken over the medium term on subsidy cut impact. As a result, we revise EPS growth to +7% CAGR from earlier +9% through 2019 to reach SAR Global end-user demand still strong Over the long term, global demand for PE and PP continues to be on a rise and as per Freedonia, PE demand is expected to grow at 4% CAGR to 99.6 million metric tons by Global demand is valued at nearly USD 164 billion by 2018 and half of that is derived from Asia. We believe a large consumption-output gap still persists, implying scope for continued demand from Asia. In our view, lower product and energy prices are expected to drive end-product capacity utilization in EM thus fueling growth in the sector. Valuation is full and yields lower The concerns on TASI and some bearish perceptions on Petrochem has led to stock price retreat of -22% YTD but still lower to sector s -27%. We expect maiden DPS of SAR 0.50 for 2015E yielding 2.9% however the yield-p/e proposition suggest stock is less attractive. Key Financials FY December 31 (SAR mln) 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E Revenue 7,859 7,382 7,691 8,348 EBITDA 2,160 2,434 2,351 2,570 Net Profit EPS (SAR) DPS (SAR) BVPS (SAR) ROAA 4% 4% 4% 5% ROAE 16% 17% 14% 16% P / E 10.6x 8.9x 9.5x 8.3x P / B 1.7x 1.5x 1.4x 1.3x P / S 1.0x 1.1x 1.1x 1.0x EV/ EBITDA 9.9x 8.8x 9.1x 8.3x EV/ Sales 2.7x 2.9x 2.8x 2.6x Santhosh Balakrishnan santhosh.balakrishnan@riyadcapital.com Yasser Bin Ahmed yasser.bin.ahmed@riyadcapital.com Riyad Capital is licensed by the Saudi Arabia Capital Markets Authority (No )

2 Sector Outlook Globally, polyethylene market as per an international industry firm Freedonia is expected to reach US$ 164 billion by 2018 with major share of growth driven by Asian markets. Polyethylene being the major widely used plastic resin in the world is driven by the demand from the packaging industry primarily with food packaging. The demand is majorly driven from Asia in excess of 50% mainly concentrated in China and India. With such demand, supply is expected to reach 99.6 million metric tons (MT) by Exhibit 1: Polyethylene Demand from E Exhibit 2: Global Polyethylene Demand Proportion 2018E Others 20% North America 18% North America Western Europe Asia Pacific Others Asia Pacific 48% Western Europe 14% Source: Freedonia Source: Freedonia However, the recent fall in product prices has put a pause on large expansion in capacities across the world, as producers fear contraction in margins in the event of oversupply. With global operating rates consistently increasing, demand weakening following an expected economic slowdown in China could lead to oversupply affecting prices. We believe Petrochem with production of related by-products in polyethylene such as HDPE, LDPE, LLDPE and PP witnessing pressure upon falling prices, we resort to a revision on outlook for while we see some improvement from Financial Analysis In our update report, we revisited our model and revise our outlook for E considering the inherent volatility in petrochemical prices and impact of subsidy. We revise our estimates and the revision adjusts mainly our outlook for a better 2015E after it posted strong results in second and third quarter of 2015 but expect a weaker 2016 and better improvement from However we are cautious of an impact of large fall in EM currencies, which implies lower competency in pricing for Petrochem versus EM based producers, hence cut our revenue estimates significantly for 2016E. We consider the related impact of product price volatility, demand-supply output gap while considering oil price fluctuations. We revise EPS for E, an increase for 2015E but resort to a downward revision for E. Overall the fall in prices should benefit Petrochem in 4Q2015 and not to extend beyond but await clarity. Table 1: Changes in Estimates (SAR Mln) Old Estimates New Estimates New vs Old Consensus 2015E 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E Revenue 7,340 8,370 8,704 7,382 7,691 8,348 1% -8% -4% 7,334 7,663 7,874 Y/Y -7% 14% 4% -6% 4% 9% -1% 4% 3% Gross Profit ,399 2,307 2,546 9% -12% -9% 2,669 2,605 2,330 Y/Y -4% 20% 6% 4% -4% 10% 11% -2% -11% EBITDA ,434 2,351 2,570 10% -4% -8% Y/Y 2% 11% 14% 13% -3% 9% 14% 0% -1% Net Income % -16% -11% Y/Y 4% 27% 8% 19% -7% 14% -9% 4% 2% EPS % -16% -11% Source: Bloomberg Estimates and Riyad Capital * Comparison show n till 2017E as consensus after 2017 not available December 31,

3 E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E , , E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 7,859 7,382 7,691 8,348 8,857 9,326 Revenue not to catapult Revenue growth of +6% CAGR is expected despite PE and PP price contractions. With 65% of exports currently to Asia, we believe propelling demand from 2017 is expected from emerging economies like China and India. PE accounts for 60% of Petrochem s sales, while PP accounts for 25%. Product prices across PE resins have witnessed a large decline since the start of the year with HDPE declining by -14%, LDPE by -13% and LLDPE by -12%. On the other hand, PP declined by -37% adding further pressure. With sub products in PE (such as HDPE, LDPE and LLDPE) and PP witnessing large downside volatility, we believe 2016E could be a tough year for Petrochem. Exhibit 3: Revenue Forecasts (SAR Mln) Revenue YoY 80% 55% Exhibit 4: Polypropylene vs Ethylene Prices (rebased) 180% 160% 140% 120% 30% 100% 80% 5% 60% -20% 40% Poly Propylene Ethylene Source: Company reports and Riyad Capital Source: Bloomberg We expect Petrochem to have reasonably better operating rates exceeding 90% for E as most production lines are consistent since its start from 2012 with few history of any unplanned maintenance. With Petrochem closely tracking Ethane as a feedstock, we presume it would make some early advantage as a result of a price decline. However, not expected to sustain over the medium term as international producers would receive the same benefit. We estimate average Opex for at 71% higher than 70% earlier upon impact of subsidy cuts. EBITDA is expected to grow at +4.5% CAGR through 2019 to touch SAR 2.9 billion with margin average of 31%. Additionally net margins are expected to contract initially in 2016 but expect a margin average of 12% for Despite downturn in margins, we expect earnings to touch SAR 1.2 billion with a CAGR 7% through Exhibit 5: Net Profit (SAR Mln) and Margin Forecasts Exhibit 6: EPS and DPS Forecasts (SAR) Net profit YoY 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% Source: Company reports and Riyad Capital Source: Company reports and Riyad Capital EPS of SAR 1.93 for 2015E is expected and forecasted to reach SAR 2.54 by 2019 leaving little room for any large payouts, but maiden dividend of SAR 0.50 is expected for 2015E. Petrochem s balance sheet is highly leveraged with D/E ratio of 2.5x for 2015E which is reasonably high, though few companies do operate with high level of debt. We remain concerned on the thin ROA s of 4% during 2014 versus industry s 9% and expected to remain subtle over the next 2-3 years. However ROE of 15% during 2014 is at par with industry s 17% which is a respite. Operating cash flow continued to stay positive since 2013 after it recorded SAR 1.5 billion during 2014 and expected to grow at a reasonable rate. December 31,

4 4Q2015 Preview We expect Petrochem s revenue to be at SAR 1.7 billion for 4Q2015E and net income of SAR 196 million for the same period. We expect earnings decline of -39% Q/Q as product prices continued to have volatile swings and global peers compete at lower prices as a result of dollar strengthening in EM markets. However, in 3Q2015 Petrochem reported good earnings, beating street and our estimate by a large margin. It reported revenues of SAR 1.9 billion during 3Q2015 down by -2% Y/Y and -3% Q/Q. Net income of SAR 321 million were ahead of expectations growing by +2% Y/Y and - 4% Q/Q. Table 2: Quarterly Income Statement Summary (SAR Mln) Valuation 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15E Revenue Q/Q -7% 66% -2% 33% 15% 15% -1% 14% -21% 11% -3% -9% Gross Profit Q/Q NM 29% NM NM 23% 23% 19% -8% -28% 68% 3% -39% EBITDA Q/Q NM 18% -89% 1071% 26% 17% 13% -3% -30% 77% 2% -44% Net Income Q/Q NM -913% NM -150% 89% 40% 24% -21% -47% 200% 5% -39% EPS (SAR) Gross Margins 25.0% 19.5% -3.5% 24.9% 26.7% 28.5% 34.2% 27.5% 24.8% 37.5% 39.7% 26.7% EBITDA Margins 37.6% 26.8% 3.0% 26.0% 28.5% 29.1% 33.1% 28.1% 24.7% 39.3% 41.0% 25.5% Net Margins -0.2% 0.9% -13.4% 5.0% 8.2% 10.0% 12.5% 8.6% 5.8% 15.5% 16.8% 11.3% Source: Company Reports and Riyad Capital We update our models and use two valuation metrics to value Petrochem. We used a target P/E approach mainly to understand the range of valuations but resort to DCF method to derive our 12-month target price of SAR from earlier SAR We maintain our Hold rating due to limited upside. #1: DCF suggest fair value of SAR We assign our valuation assumptions for forecasts assumed for E, with a riskfree rate assumption of 3.9% and long-term terminal growth rate of 1.5%. With such assumptions, the cost of equity of 11.9% and cost of debt at 4.9% leads us to a WACC of 9.1% assuming a capital structure (Equity:Debt) of 60: 40. Table 3: Discounted Cashflow Valuation 2017E 2018E 2019E Assumptions NOPLAT 1,554 1,698 1,922 Cost of equity 11.9% Add: Depreciation &Amortization After tax cost of debt 4.9% Change in w orking capital (74) (81) (92) WACC 9.1% Less: Capex (369) (376) (384) Zakat (tax) rate 2.5% Net Adjustments in WC, CAPEX and D&A Terminal Grow th rate 1.5% Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) 2,071 2,047 2,366 Risk free rate 3.9% PV of FCFF-Share of Petrochem 1,235 1,120 1,187 Market Return 10.1% DCF Valuation Market Risk Premium 6.3% Terminal Value 20,403 LT Debt/Equity 40.0% PV of Terminal Value 15,822 LT Equity Capital/Debt 60.0% Value of the firm 19,363 Potential Upside 17.8% Add (Less): Net Debt (9,722) 3 Yr Weekly Adj.Beta 1.3 Value of equity 9,641 Shares O/S (Mln) 480 Value Per Share (SAR) Stock price (SAR) Source: Riyad Capital December 31,

5 P/E Range(x) WACC Table 4: Sensitivity Analysis of WACC and Terminal Growth Rate Terminal Growth Rate % 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.5% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0% 2.2% 2.4% 2.6% 2.8% 3.0% 8.3% % % % % % % % Source: Riyad Capital Risks to valuation Any further fall in product prices could lead to a tricky situation in maintaining margins though cost advantage over feedstock could benefit local producers over short to medium term. The potential slowdown in demand from Asian markets could prove to a dampener for growth as Petrochem exports more than half of its product to Asia. We also caution any impact of technical outage which can result in plant shutdown affecting operating rates and in turn affect topline. Additionally any further increase in feedstock prices could have a large downside impact on our estimates. #2: Target P/E valuation at SAR We valued Petrochem using a target P/E based method mainly to compare with absolute method and comparing market expectations. We used a P/E multiple of 11.0x to value Petrochem considering the sectors valuation range over the last 3-5 years. With last 12 months P/E range proving to be a down cycle we assign more weightage to the last 12-months sector P/E, though consensus differs with our valuation assumptions. Table 5: Price Sensitivity and Target P/E Valuation using Bear-Base-Bull Case EPS Estimates 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Bear Base Bull Bear Base Bull Bear Base Bull Bear Base Bull EPS (SAR) x # x # x # x # x # x # x # x # x # Valuation based on P/E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Net profit estimates (SAR Mln) EPS (SAR) P/E based valuation (SAR) Valuation at 2 year historical average of 14.5x Based on a sector average 2016E consensus P/E of 10.7x Estimated valuation at PER of 11.0x Source: Riyad Capital We believe the consensus has not adjusted estimates as valuation range seems to be on the higher side with double digit EPS growth which we believe is too optimistic. Petrochem is trading narrower to KSA petrochemical sector with discount of 5-10%, however with P/E trading range across large and mid-cap producers too wide to be considered for valuation, we favor DCF method. December 31,

6 Valuations reasonably decent on most parameters except yields On a TTM basis, Petrochem trades at a discount to sector but spread is not enough considering its risk profile with its multi-product exposure and limited track record, hence unconvinced on valuations front. Petrochem offers a valuation range with a discount of 5-10% and with a TTM P/E of 8.9x, valuation appears to be full and does not command large consideration with higher P/B of 1.5x. Stock has corrected nearly 44% from its 52 week highs adding to the concern. Table 6: KSA Petrochemicals Sector Valuation (TTM basis) Company Name Price (SAR) Mcap SAR Mln EV SAR Mln P/E P/B P/S EV/ Sales EV/ Div.Yl EBITDA d YTD 52 Wk-Hi (SAR) 52 Wk- Lo (SAR) Saudi Basic Industries Corp , , x 1.4x 1.4x 1.9x 6.4x 7.1% (8%) Saudi Arabian Fertilizer Co ,450 32, x 4.6x 8.7x 10.1x 14.1x 7.5% (29%) National Industrialization Co ,177 35,151 NA 0.8x 0.5x 2.4x 13.4x 9.3% (60%) National Petrochemical Co ,184 21, x 1.5x 1.0x 2.8x 8.4x NA (22%) Saudi Industrial Investment Grou ,291 21, x 0.9x 0.8x 3.0x 9.0x 7.4% (45%) Sahara Petrochemical Co ,528 5, x 0.8x 3.0x 4.0x 12.9x 4.8% (32%) Yanbu National Petrochemical Co ,017 22, x 1.2x 2.4x 3.8x 9.8x 6.3% (33%) Saudi International Petrochemica ,291 13, x 0.9x 1.5x 4.2x 10.2x 8.3% (46%) Advanced Petrochemical Co ,247 6, x 2.6x 2.4x 3.0x 7.5x 7.9% (5%) Saudi Kayan Petrochemical Co ,485 37,038 NA 0.8x 1.2x 4.5x 15.7x NA (36%) Rabigh Refining & Petrochemical ,976 43,435 NA 1.2x 0.3x 1.4x 20.2x 3.8% (31%) Sector Median* 340, , x 1.2x 1.4x 3.0x 10.2x 7.4% Source: Bloomberg, Market Cap and EV are total December 31,

7 E EPS grow th Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Appendix Exhibit 8: 5 Year Price Multiples Trading History P/B Ratio P/S Ratio P/B 2 Yr Avg 12M Avg P/S 2 Yr Avg 12M Avg 8.5 EV/Sales Ratio 35.0 EV/EBITDA Ratio EV/Sales 2 Yr Avg 12M Avg EV/EBITDA 2 Yr Avg 12-M Avg Source: Bloomberg Exhibit 9: KSA Petrochemicals Sector Valuation-Consensus EPS growth E Vs 2015E P/E 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% SIPCHEM YANSAB 8.0% SIIG SABIC 6.0% SAFCO 4.0% 2.0% Adv anced National Petchem 0.0% E P/E Source: Bloomberg December 31,

8 Summary Financials and Ratios Table 7: Summary Financials Income Statement (SAR mln) E 2016 E 2017 E 2018 E 2019E Total Sales 858 4,437 7,859 7,382 7,691 8,348 8,857 9,326 Cost of Sales (1,337) (3,710) (5,559) (4,983) (5,384) (5,802) (6,134) (6,342) Gross Profit (479) 727 2,299 2,399 2,307 2,546 2,724 2,984 S,G&A Expenses (203) (561) (793) (664) (692) (751) (797) (839) Other Income Financial Charges (22) (204) (171) (205) (187) (166) (148) (132) Minority Interest (485) (535) (500) (570) (623) (705) Zakat (39) (38) (75) (70) (65) (74) (81) (92) Net Income (464) (66) ,075 1,217 EBITDA (444) (39) 2,160 2,434 2,351 2,570 2,546 2,895 EPS (0.97) (0.14) BVPS DPS Balance Sheet (SAR mln) Assets Cash & equivalents ,172 3,977 3,601 2,948 2,417 2,216 Inventories ,243 1,107 1,154 1,252 1,329 1,399 Account Receivables Total Current Assets 1,083 2,548 4,162 6,102 5,821 5,328 4,933 4,862 Deferred Expenses Total non-current Assets 19,303 18,457 17,835 17,827 17,840 17,851 18,055 18,161 Total Assets 20,387 21,006 21,997 23,929 23,661 23,179 22,988 23,023 Liabilities & Equity Short Term Debt 565 1,526 1,146 1,221 1,389 1,229 1, Account Payable Total Current Liabilities 1,084 2,330 1,994 2,249 2,486 2,397 2,315 2,231 Long Term Debt 12,893 11,968 12,022 12,478 11,089 9,859 8,770 7,806 Total non-current Liab 13,672 13,121 13,189 13,646 12,258 11,031 9,944 8,981 Total Liabilities 14,756 15,451 15,183 15,895 14,744 13,428 12,259 11,213 Retained Earnings (615) (681) ,152 1,416 1,771 2,148 Minority Interest 1,444 1,434 1,919 2,454 2,954 3,524 4,146 4,851 Total Equity & Min Interest 5,631 5,555 6,814 8,034 8,917 9,751 10,729 11,810 Total Liab & Equity 20,387 21,006 21,997 23,929 23,661 23,179 22,988 23,023 Cash Flows (SAR mln) Income/Loss before zakat (425) (28) ,059 1,156 1,309 Adjustments (416) (532) 702 3, CFO (840) (560) 1,552 4,375 1,893 2,014 1,968 2,271 Prop, plant & equip (1,442) (355) (362) (369) (376) (384) Other Assets (128) - (727) (28) (29) (31) (32) (34) CFI (1,570) 890 (727) (383) (391) (400) (409) (418) Loans (926) (753) (1,221) (1,389) (1,229) (1,089) Capital Inc / Dividends (240) (480) (720) (720) (840) CFF 871 (194) (326) (1,188) (1,878) (2,267) (2,090) (2,054) Cash at year end ,172 3,977 3,601 2,948 2,417 2,216 Ratio Analysis Total Gross -56% 16% 29% 33% 30% 31% 31% 32% Total EBITDA -52% -1% 27% 33% 31% 31% 29% 31% Total Net Margins -54% -1% 10% 12.5% 11.2% 11.8% 12.1% 13.1% Leverage/Liquidity (x) Cash Ratio Current Ratio Inventory Turnover Interest Cover (31.16) Debt to EBITDA (30.29) (347.93) Debt to Assets 66% 64% 60% 57% 53% 48% 43% 38% Debt to Equity Others P/ E (17.7) (123.8) Price to Book Dividend Payout - 0.0% 0.0% 26.0% 55.6% 73.1% 67.0% 69.0% Dividend Yield - 0.0% 0.0% 2.9% 5.9% 8.8% 8.8% 10.3% Earnings Yield -5.7% -0.8% 9.5% 11.3% 10.5% 12.0% 13.1% 14.9% Source: Company reports, Riyad Capital December 31,

9 Page Intentionally Left Blank December 31,

10 Stock Rating Strong Buy Buy Hold Sell Not Rated Expected Total Return 25% Expected Total Return 15% Expected Total Return < 15% Overvalued Under Review/ Restricted For any feedback on our reports, please contact Disclaimer The information in this report was compiled in good faith from various public sources believed to be reliable. Whilst all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated in this report are accurate and that the forecasts, opinions and expectations contained herein are fair and reasonable. Riyad Capital makes no representations or warranties whatsoever as to the accuracy of the data and information provided and, in particular, Riyad Capital does not represent that the information in this report is complete or free from any error. This report is not, and is not to be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any financial securities. Accordingly, no reliance should be placed on the accuracy, fairness or completeness of the information contained in this report. Riyad Capital accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents, and neither Riyad Capital nor any of its respective directors, officers or employees, shall be in any way responsible for the contents hereof. Riyad Capital or its employees or any of its affiliates or clients may have a financial interest in securities or other assets referred to in this report. Opinions, forecasts or projections contained in this report represent Riyad Capital's current opinions or judgment as at the date of this report only and are therefore subject to change without notice. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions, forecasts or projections which represent only one possible outcome. Further, such opinions, forecasts or projections are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that have not been verified and future actual results or events could differ materially. The value of, or income from, any investments referred to in this report may fluctuate and/or be affected by changes. Past performance is not necessarily an indicative of future performance. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested amount. This report provides information of a general nature and does not address the circumstances, objectives, and risk tolerance of any particular investor. Therefore, it is not intended to provide personal investment advice and does not take into account the reader s financial situation or any specific investment objectives or particular needs which the reader may have. Before making an investment decision the reader should seek advice from an independent financial, legal, tax and/or other required advisers due to the investment in such kind of securities may not be suitable for all recipients. This research report might not be reproduced, nor distributed in whole or in part, and all information, opinions, forecasts and projections contained in it are protected by the copyright rules and regulations. Riyad Capital is a Saudi limited liability company, with commercial registration number ( ), licensed and organized by the Capital Market Authority under License No. ( ), and having its registered office at Al Takhassusi Street, Prestige Building, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia ( KSA ). Website:

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