Price Increases Shows More Bite in the United States
|
|
- Caitlin Barrett
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 FEBRUARY 6, 208 WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Price Increases Shows More Bite in the United States # BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - HIGHLIGHTS ff United States: Prices climb while retail sales and industrial production disappoint. ff Big jump in housing starts in the United States in January. ff U.S. consumer confidence improved despite stock market troubles. ff Canada: Manufacturing sales declined slightly in. ff Canada: Sales of existing homes fell sharply in January. A LOOK AHEAD ff A slight increase in home resales is predicted for the United States. ff Canada: The total annual inflation rate is expected to fall in January. ff Canada: Retail sales might inch up in. FINANCIAL MARKETS ff The stock market correction appears to be over. ff Inflationary pressures in the United States lead investors to expect more federal funds rate increases. ff Renewed confidence hurts the greenback. CONTENTS Key Statistics of the Week... 2 United States, Canada A Look Ahead... 4 United States, Canada, Overseas Financial Markets... 3 Economic Indicators of the Week... 5 Tables Economic indicators... 7 Major financial indicators... 9 François Dupuis, Vice-President and Chief Economist Carine Bergevin-Chammah, Economist Mathieu D Anjou, Senior Economist Benoit P. Durocher, Senior Economist Francis Généreux, Senior Economist Hendrix Vachon, Senior Economist, Economic Studies: or , ext desjardins.economics@desjardins.com desjardins.com/economics NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. The data on prices or margins are provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time, based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. The opinions and forecasts contained herein are, unless otherwise indicated, those of the document s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Group. Copyright 208, Group. All rights reserved.
2 Key Statistics of the Week ff Retail sales dipped % in January after stagnating in (revised from +). Motor vehicle sales declined.3%, but the value of service station sales increased.6%. Excluding autos and gas, sales contracted 0.2% after idling in (revised from +). ff Sales of existing homes slumped 4.5% in January 208 for all of Canada. This drop coincides with the introduction of tighter mortgage rules. Virtually all regions saw a substantial pullback, including -26.6% in Toronto, - in Vancouver and -4.0% in Montréal. The average price of existing homes decreased % in January. ff The consumer price index (CPI) jumped in January after a 0.2% gain in (revised from 0.%). Energy prices rose %. The core index, which excludes food and energy, edged up %. With respect to prices, the increase recorded in January is striking. This is the strongest monthly growth since February 203 for the total CPI and since March 2005 for the core index. The annual change in the total and core CPI held at 2.% and.8%, respectively. However, the annual change in the total and core CPI held at 2.% and.8%, respectively. ff After increasing 3.8% in November, manufacturing sales paused for breath in with a % decline. A retreat was observed in of the 2 main industries. Moreover, sales in the petroleum and coal products manufacturing industry shrank 4.%, ending five consecutive months on the rise. In real terms, total sales were down 0.%, while inventories remained virtually the same. Benoit P. Durocher, Senior economist ff For the first time since August 207, industrial production was down in January. The 0.% decrease is due primarily to a surprising contraction of.0% in the mining sector (including oil and gas extraction). Manufacturing idled for a second month in a row. After strong growth of 4.6% in due to cold weather, energy production rose %. ff Regional manufacturing indexes went their separate ways in February. The New York Fed s Empire index dropped from 7.7 to 3., its lowest level since July 207, while the Philadelphia Fed s index improved, going from 2 to ff After dropping 6.9% in, housing starts jumped 9.7% in January. This stronger monthly growth since 206 saw annualized new construction numbers go up from,209,000 to,326,000 units, the highest since October 206. The gain is stronger for multi-unit housing (+9.7%) than for single-family homes (+%). Building permits increased 7.4% to,396,000 units, a peak not seen since June ff The University of Michigan consumer confidence index rose in February according to its preliminary version. Despite fears tied to the stock market s nosedive at the beginning of the month, the index edged up from 95.7 to 99.9, its highest level since October. The trade balance deteriorated further in the fourth quarter International merchandise trade balance in real terms In 2007 $B 5 Quarterly averages Francis Généreux, Senior economist Sources: Statistics Canada and, Economic Studies FEBRUARY 6, 208 2
3 Financial Markets Optimism Returns to the Markets The main stock markets reversed last week s drop. In the United States, the S&P 500 posted a weekly gain of almost 4.5% at time of writing, with optimism ramping back up. The U.S. stock market volatility index (VIX) stabilized at a lower level closer to 9. Solid corporate earnings and favourable outlooks for the U.S. and global economy pushed the stock market higher despite disappointing economic data for January and strong inflation. Canada s stock market followed U.S. movements, with a more modest increase of about % since last Friday. U.S. bond yields reached four-year peaks before Thursday s session, with inflation exceeding expectations. However, the decline in industrial production brought down the 0 year yield closer to last Friday s level of about 7%. The 2 year yield held onto its gains from Wednesday, settling at around 0%. While inflation headwinds are getting stronger, investors appear to be anticipating more increases to the federal funds rate. The bond market in Canada echoed the U.S. trend. The 2 year yield was up significantly on Wednesday, on news of the U.S. inflation rate. The 0 year yield fell back to last Friday s level of about 2%, after briefly flirting with 0% before Thursday s session. The contraction in manufacturing sales in Canada announced on Friday may have had a slightly negative impact on short-and long-term yields. GRAPH Stock markets Index Index 2,875 6,350 2,825 6,50 2,775 5,950 2,725 5,750 5,550 2,675 5,350 2,625 5,50 2,575 4, /0/04 208/0/2 208/0/22 208/0/30 208/02/07 208/02/5 S&P 500 (left) S&P/TSX (right) Sources: Datastream and, Economic Studies GRAPH 2 Bond markets 0-year yield In % points -0 In % -5-0 After capitalizing on its role as a safe-haven currency last week, renewed investor optimism punished the greenback in the last few sessions. The U.S. dollar seemed intent on erasing part of its losses at Friday s open, however, supported by a strongerthan-expected increase in housing starts and import prices in the United States. The drop of the U.S. dollar helped the euro and the pound climb back above US$.25 and US$.4, respectively, overnight from Thursday to Friday. Even the yen, another safehaven currency, rose sharply against the greenback. With a boost from rising oil prices, the Canadian dollar also rose as of the middle of the week. However, it fell back to below US$0 Friday morning. Mathieu D Anjou, Senior Economist Carine Bergevin-Chammah, Economist /0/ /0/2 Spread (left) 208/0/22 208/0/30 United States (right) 208/02/07 208/02/5 Canada (right) Sources: Datastream and, Economic Studies GRAPH 3 Currency markets US$/C$ US$/ /0/ /0/2 208/0/22 208/0/30 Canadian dollar (left) 208/02/07 208/02/5 Euro (right) Sources: Datastream and, Economic Studies FEBRUARY 6, 208 3
4 A Look Ahead WEDNESDAY February 2-0:00 January ann. rate 5,60,000 5,60,000 5,570,000 Sales of existing homes (January) In, sales of existing homes declined for the first time since August 207, but the 3.6% drop did not wipe out the cumulative gain of 8.0% for the previous three months. That said, a slight uptick is forecast for January. That is what the increase in pending sales of existing homes suggests. We have also noted higher demand for mortgage loans in anticipation of purchases in the first month of 208. All told, a level of a little over 5,600,000 units is expected. THURSDAY February 22-0:00 January m/m %.% % Leading indicator (January) The leading indicator continued to rise satisfactorily in. After gains of.3% in October and in November, it was up % in. We expect slightly stronger growth in January. Growth will be mainly bolstered by building permits, the ISM index, the stock exchanges (before the correction, which should have an effect on February s number) and interest rates. A.% monthly gain is expected. TUESDAY February 20 - m/m November % Wholesale trade () The strength of consumer spending across Canada should boost wholesale trade in. Wholesale trade should also benefit from higher exports in recent months, particularly in the automobile products sector. Bottom line: we expect an increase of about in sales for. THURSDAY February 22 - m/m -0.% November 0.2% Retail sales () According to preliminary data, sales of new vehicles were down for the second month in a row in. Seasonally adjusted gas prices were practically unchanged in, which will mean more or less zero growth for service station sales. However, conditions look more positive for the other components due to the vitality of the labour market and high consumer confidence. The total value of retail sales could grow about in. FRIDAY February 23 - January m/m % - Consumer price index (January) According to prices at the pump, gas went up 3.% in January, which could lead to an increase of about 0.% in the consumer price index (CPI) monthly change. As a rule, there are hardly any seasonal adjustments in January. Factoring in the uptick of the other components, stimulated particularly by the gradual absorption of excess production capacity, the total CPI monthly change should be close to % in January. The total annual inflation rate could drop from.9% to.3%, however, due to a base effect linked to a surge in gas prices at this time in 207. OVERSEAS WEDNESDAY February 2 - February 58.4 January 58.8 : PMI indexes (February) The euro zone s composite PMI index reached a new record high of 58.8 in January. That high level suggests that the euro zone s GDP could post a strong increase in real GDP during Q 208 after last fall s non-annualized gain of %. For that to happen the PMI indexes will have to stay up throughout the quarter, starting in February. Among other euro zone indicators to be released this week, Tuesday will bring the preliminary version of the consumer confidence index for February. That index also hit a new cyclical high in January. The German Ifo business confidence indexes will be released on Thursday, while the second estimate of German real GDP for Q4 will come out on Friday. FEBRUARY 6, 208 4
5 Economic Indicators Week of February 9 to 23, 208 Day Hour Indicator Period Previous data MONDAY 9 Markets closed (President s Day) TUESDAY 20 WEDNESDAY 2 THURSDAY 22 FRIDAY 23 9:00 0:00 Speech of the Philadelphia Fed President, P. Harker Existing home sales (ann. rate) Minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting 0:5 0:00 0:00 2:0 Speech of a Federal Reserve Governor, R. Quarles Initial unemployment claims Leading indicator (m/m) Speech of the New York Fed President, W. Dudley Speech of the Atlanta Fed President, R. Bostic 0:5 5:40 Speeches of the New York Fed President, W. Dudley, and of the Boston Fed President, E. Rosengren Speech of the San Francisco Fed President, J. Williams 2-6 5,60,000 5,60,000 5,570, ,000 % 233,00.% 230,000 % MONDAY 9 TUESDAY % % -.2% THURSDAY 22 Retail sales Total (m/m) Excluding automobiles (m/m) -0.% -0.% 0.9% 0.2%.6% FRIDAY 23 Consumer price index Total (m/m) Excluding food and energy (m/m) Total (y/y) Excluding food and energy (y/y).5% % 0.%.3%.% - -.9%.7% WEDNESDAY 2 Wholesale sales (m/m) Wholesale inventories (m/m) Note:, Economic Studies are involved every week in the Bloomberg survey for Canada and the United States. Approximately 5 economists are consulted for the Canadian survey and a hundred or so for the United States. The abbreviations m/m, q/q and y/y correspond to monthly, quarterly and yearly variation respectively. Following the quarter, the abbreviations f, s and t correspond to first estimate, second estimate and third estimate respectively. The times shown are Eastern Standard Time (GMT - 5 hours). Forecast of, Economic Studies of the Group. FEBRUARY 6, 208 5
6 Economic Indicators Week of February 9 to 23, 208 Country Hour Indicator Period m/m (q/q) y/y Previous data m/m (q/q) y/y OVERSEAS SUNDAY 8 8:50 Trade balance ( B) MONDAY 9 Italy 5:00 Current account ( B) Current account ( M) Construction 3 4,88 TUESDAY 20 2:00 5:00 5:00 0:00 9:30 23:30 Producer price index ZEW survey Current situation ZEW survey Expectations Consumer confidence preliminary PMI manufacturing index preliminary All industry activity index.8% % % WEDNESDAY 2 United Kingdom 3:00 3:00 3:00 3:30 3:30 3:30 4:30 PMI composite index preliminary PMI manufacturing index preliminary PMI services index preliminary PMI composite index preliminary PMI manufacturing index preliminary PMI services index preliminary PMI composite index preliminary PMI manufacturing index preliminary PMI services index preliminary ILO unemployment rate % % THURSDAY 22 United Kingdom United Kingdom 2:45 2:45 2:45 4:30 4:30 Business confidence Consumer price index final Production outlook Ifo survey Business climate Ifo survey Current situation Ifo survey Expectations Index of services Real GDP preliminary Consumer price index %.4% -0.% % Q4.5%.3%.5%.0% FRIDAY 23 2:00 5:00 Real GDP final Consumer price index Q4 2.9%.4% % -0.9% 2.9%.3% % % %.4% Note: In contrast to the situation in Canada and the United States, disclosure of overseas economic fi gures is much more approximate. The day of publication is therefore shown for information purposes only. The abbreviations m/m, q/q and y/y correspond to monthly, quarterly and yearly variation respectively. The times shown are Eastern Standard Time (GMT - 5 hours). FEBRUARY 6, 208 6
7 Quarterly economic indicators REF. QUART. Gross domestic product (2009 $B) Consumption (2009 $B) Government spending (2009 $B) Residential investment (2009 $B) Non-residential investment (2009 $B) Business inventory change (2009 $B) Exports (2009 $B) Imports (2009 $B) Final domestic demand (2009 $B) GDP deflator (2009 = 00) Labor productivity (2009 = 00) Unit labor cost (2009 = 00) Employment cost index ( 2005 = 00) Current account balance ($B) VARIATION (%) LEVEL 207 Q4 207 Q4 207 Q4 207 Q4 207 Q4 207 Q4 207 Q4 207 Q4 207 Q4 207 Q4 207 Q4 207 Q4 207 Q4 207 Q3 ANNUAL VARIATION (%) Quart. ann. year ,272 2,028 2, , ,229 2,882 7, Statistics representing the level during the period; * New statistic in comparison with last week. Monthly economic indicators REF. MONTH Leading indicator (200 = 00) ISM manufacturing index ISM non-manufacturing index Cons. confidence Conference Board (985 = 00) Personal consumption expenditure (2009 $B) Disposable personal income (2009 $B) Consumer credit ($B) Retail sales ($M) VARIATION (%) LEVEL - month -3 months -6 months - year * ,07 2,839 3,84 492,003 * 39, * * * * * * , ,32,902,326, ,570-53,8 47, ,209, ,780-50, ,26, ,370-44, ,85, ,50-45,626, ,236, ,50-44,607 2, * Excluding food and energy Producer price (2009 = 00) Export prices (2000 = 00) Import prices (2000 = 00) * * * Excluding automobiles ($M) Industrial production (2007 = 00) Production capacity utilization rate (%) New machinery orders ($M) New durable good orders ($M) Business inventories ($B) Housing starts (k) Building permits (k) New home sales (k) Existing home sales (k) Commercial surplus ($M) Nonfarm employment (k)2 Unemployment rate (%) Consumer price ( = 00) Excluding food and energy Personal cons. expenditure deflator (2009 = 00) Statistic shows the level of the month of the column; 2 Statistic shows the variation since the reference month; * New statistic in comparison with last week. FEBRUARY 6, 208 7
8 Quarterly economic indicators REF. QUART. Gross domestic product (2007 $M) Household consumption (2007 $M) Government consumption (2007 $M) Residential investment (2007 $M) Non-residential investment (2007 $M) Business inventory change (2007 $M) Exports (2007 $M) Imports (2007 $M) Final domestic demand (2007 $M) GDP deflator (2007 = 00) Labour productivity (2007 = 00) Unit labour cost (2007 = 00) Current account balance ($M) Production capacity utilization rate (%) Disposable personal income ($M) Corporate net operating surplus (2007 $M) VARIATION (%) LEVEL 207 Q3 207 Q3 207 Q3 207 Q3 207 Q3 207 Q3 207 Q3 207 Q3 207 Q3 207 Q3 207 Q3 207 Q3 207 Q3 207 Q3 207 Q3 207 Q3 ANNUAL VARIATION (%) Quart. ann. year , , , , , ,860,679,07, ,066 27,395 7,508 7, , ,543,847, , ,208, ,708 Statistics representing the level during the period; * New statistic in comparison with last week. Monthly economic indicators REF. MONTH Gross domestic product (2007 $M) Industrial production (2007 $M) Manufacturing sales ($M) Housing starts (k) Building permits ($M) Retail sales ($M) Excluding automobiles ($M) Wholesale trade sales ($M) Commercial surplus ($M) Exports ($M) Imports ($M) Employment (k)2 Unemployment rate (%) Average weekly earnings ($) Number of salaried employees (k)2 Consumer price (2002 = 00) Excluding food and energy Excluding 8 volatile items Industrial product price (2002 = 00) Raw materials price (2002 = 00) Money supply M+ ($M) VARIATION (%) LEVEL - month -3 months -6 months - year,759, ,929 55, ,059 50, , ,552-3,86-2,70.3-3,344-3, ,50 49, , , , * Statistic shows the level of the month of the column; 2 Statistic shows the variation since the reference month; * New statistic in comparison with last week. FEBRUARY 6, 208 8
9 ,, OVERSEAS Major financial indicators PREVIOUS DATA ACTUAL LAST 52 WEEKS IN % (EXPECTED IF INDICATED) month -3 months -6 months - year Higher Average Lower United States Federal funds target Treasury bill 3 months Treasury bonds 2 years Treasury bonds 5 years Treasury bonds 0 years Treasury bonds 30 years S&P 500 index (level) DJIA index (level) Gold price (US$/ounce) CRB index (level) WTI oil (US$/barrel) ,739 25,34, ,620 24,9, ,80 26,072, ,579 23,358, ,426 2,675, ,35 20,624, ,873 26,67, ,5 22,472, ,329 20,404, Canada Overnight target Treasury bill 3 months Treasury bonds 2 years Treasury bonds 5 years Treasury bonds 0 years Treasury bonds 30 years Spread with the U.S. rate (% points) Overnight target Treasury bill 3 months -6 Treasury bonds 2 years -7 Treasury bonds 5 years - Treasury bonds 0 years -5 Treasury bonds 30 years S&P/TSX index (level) Exchange rate (C$/US$) Exchange rate (C$/ ) 5, , , , , , , , , Overseas ECB Refinancing rate Exchange rate (US$/ ) United Kingdom BoE Base rate Bonds 0 years FTSE index (level) Exchange rate (US$/ ) , , , , , , , , , Bonds 0 years DAX index (level) 2, ,07 0 3, , ,65 0, , ,624,804 BoJ Main policy rate Nikkei index (level) Exchange rate (US$/ ) - 2, , , , , , , , , CRB: Commodity Research Bureau; WTI: West Texas Intermediate; ECB: European Central Bank; BoE: Bank of England; BoJ: Bank of Note: Data taken at markets closing, with the exeption of the current day where they were taken at :00 a.m. FEBRUARY 6, 208 9
International Data Heighten Doubts as to the Strength of the Economy
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER International Data Heighten Doubts as to the Strength of the Economy #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - HIGHLIGHTS ff United States: Inflation edges up due to energy. ff United States: A rebound
More informationDisappointing Start of the Year for Canada s Economy
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Disappointing Start of the Year for Canada s Economy # BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - HIGHLIGHTS ff U.S. real GDP in Q4 207 was upgraded. ff United States: Real consumption stagnated in. ff
More informationDisappointing Data from the United States
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Disappointing Data from the United States #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - HIGHLIGHTS ff United States: Serious decline in retail sales and manufacturing output. ff Inflation is down in the
More informationOil at Lowest Point in Nearly a Year
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Oil at Lowest Point in Nearly a Year # BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - HIGHLIGHTS ff United States: Slight increase in housing resales in. ff Canada: Wholesale and retail sales continue to
More informationEconomic Indicators of the Week... 6
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Another Brexit Delay #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - HIGHLIGHTS ff United States: Gas is pushing up inflation. ff U.S. unemployment insurance claims are the lowest since October 1969. ff
More informationA Difficult Week for Stock Markets
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER A Difficult Week for Stock Markets #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - HIGHLIGHTS ff United States: Modest growth in consumer prices. ff Canada: The number of housing starts declined in. A LOOK
More informationSharp Rise in Prices in January in Canada
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Sharp Rise in Prices in January in Canada # BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - HIGHLIGHTS ff Canada: Inflation Rising Faster than Expected. ff Canada: December saw a drop in wholesale and retail
More informationMarkets Extend Their Rebound
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Markets Extend Their Rebound #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - HIGHLIGHTS ff United States: Manufacturing output rebounded in December. ff U.S. consumer confidence plunged in January. ff Canada:
More informationThe new budgetary measures in the 2016 Federal Budget will make deficits balloon
March 24, 2016 The new budgetary measures in the 2016 Federal Budget will make deficits balloon Highlights United States: New home sales edge up, but resales tumble. Federal Budget: Total deficits of approximately
More informationEmployment Trend Still Strong in North America
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Employment Trend Still Strong in North America # BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - HIGHLIGHTS ff Jerome Powell nominated as Chair of the Federal Reserve. ff United States: Employment does not
More informationCanada s Sales Are Disappointing in September
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Canada s Sales Are Disappointing in September #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - HIGHLIGHTS ff United States: Steepest rise in leading indicator since 2010. ff Surprising drop in U.S. new durable
More informationRetail Sales Rebound in Canada and the United States
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Retail Sales Rebound in Canada and the United States #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS ff Retail sales in the United States rebounded significantly in. ff Canada: The total
More informationUncertainty Lowers Bond Yields
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Uncertainty Lowers Bond Yields #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - HIGHLIGHTS ff U.S. home sales were down in. ff Canada: Wholesale sales return to positive territory. A LOOK AHEAD ff U.S. hires
More informationBank of Canada Still Planning a Key Rate Hike in July
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Bank of Canada Still Planning a Key Rate Hike in July #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - HIGHLIGHTS ff United States: New home sales rebounded in. ff U.S. real GDP growth was slightly downgraded
More informationHousing Market Continues to Go Down in Canada
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Housing Market Continues to Go Down in Canada #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS ff United States: Retail sales disappoint again, but industrial production rebounds. ff Household
More informationThe Escalation of Protectionism Incites Worries
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER The Escalation of Protectionism Incites Worries #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - HIGHLIGHTS ff United States: Jerome Powell starts his mandate as Federal Reserve s Chairman with a rate hike.
More informationStock Market Suffers Biggest Weekly Loss Since Winter 2016
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Stock Market Suffers Biggest Weekly Loss Since Winter 2016 #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - HIGHLIGHTS ff United States: Jobs and wages off to a good start in 2018. ff United States: Slight
More informationThe Bank of Canada Takes a More Neutral Tone
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER The Bank of Canada Takes a More Neutral Tone #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS ff U.S. job creation in February retreats. ff United States: The ISM manufacturing index rose
More informationFederal Reserve Holds Off on Key Rate Hikes for 2019
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Federal Reserve Holds Off on Key Rate Hikes for 2019 #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS ff The Federal Reserve suggests maintaining the status quo throughout the year and
More informationFewer Key Rate Hikes in 2019
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Fewer Key Rate Hikes in 2019 #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS ff United States: Washington s partial budget standoff interferes with the release of economic indicators.
More informationMarkets React to the Federal Reserve Chair
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Markets React to the Federal Reserve Chair # BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - HIGHLIGHTS ff U.S. new home sales dip again. ff United States: s real consumption was stronger than anticipated.
More informationThe markets get the year off to a quieter start
JANUARY 13, 2017 WEEKLY NEWSLETTER The markets get the year o to a quieter start HIGHLIGHTS U.S. retail sales: A disappointing end to the year. Canada: Business confidence is on the rise. A LOOK AHEAD
More informationThe Markets Remain Pessimistic
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER The Markets Remain Pessimistic #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS ff United States: Housing starts and resales climbed slightly in October. ff United States: New orders for
More informationThe S&P 500 on the Longest Bull Market Run in History
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER The S&P 500 on the Longest Bull Market Run in History #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - HIGHLIGHTS ff United States: Home sales fall again in. ff Canada: Wholesale and retail sales lost ground
More informationWage Hikes in the United States Have Pushed Bond Yields Up
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Wage Hikes in the United States Have Pushed Bond Yields Up #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS ff United States: The ISM manufacturing index has reached its highest level since
More informationGreenback Tumbled to a 3-Year Low
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Greenback Tumbled to a 3-Year Low #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS ff United States: A weaker-than-expected year-end... at first glance. ff U.S. home sales dropped in December.
More informationThe Bank of Canada Raises Its Rates and Appears Confident
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER The Bank of Canada Raises Its Rates and Appears Confident #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS ff United States: Another strong real GDP growth in Q3. ff United States: A new
More informationTensions in the United States Affect Stock Markets
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Tensions in the United States Affect Stock Markets # BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - HIGHLIGHTS ff United States: Retail sales blast past expectations. ff Slight drop in U.S. manufacturing
More informationRenewed optimism in the markets
May 27, 2016 Renewed optimism in the markets Highlights New home sales surge in the United States. U.S. GDP upgraded slightly for the first quarter. The Bank of Canada kept the target for the overnight
More informationItaly Brings Renewed Concerns on Markets
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Italy Brings Renewed Concerns on Markets #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS ff Unsurprisingly, the Federal Reserve ordered a new key rate hike. ff United States: The Conference
More informationStrong Growth Persists in Canada
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Strong Growth Persists in Canada # BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - HIGHLIGHTS ff United States: Another August with disappointing job growth. ff U.S. real GDP growth for the second quarter
More informationThe United Kingdom will hold a referendum in June on leaving the European Union
The United Kingdom will hold a referendum in June on leaving the European Union February 26, 2016 Highlights Slight upward revision of Q4 2015 U.S. real GDP. Strong rebound by new durable goods orders
More informationCanada s trade balance winds up the first quarter on a sour note
Canada s trade balance winds up the first quarter on a sour note May 6, 2016 Highlights April posts fewer hires than anticipated in the United States. United States: Manufacturing ISM drops while the non-manufacturing
More informationU.S. employment wrapped up 2014 on a strong note
U.S. employment wrapped up 2014 on a strong note January 9, 2015 Highlights United States: Best year for employment since 1999. United States: The non-manufacturing ISM also fell in December. Employment
More informationResidential Construction Picks Up in Canada Ahead of New Restrictive Measures
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Residential Construction Picks Up in Canada Ahead of New Restrictive Measures #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS ff United States: Another solid gain for jobs. ff Second consecutive
More informationJanet Yellen s remarks point to a rise in key rates at the March meeting
FEBRUARY 17, 2017 WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Janet Yellen s remarks point to a rise in key rates at the March meeting HIGHLIGHTS United States: Retail sales and inflation ramp up while industrial output and housing
More informationStronger than forecast inflation in Canada and the United States
June 20, 2014 Stronger than forecast inflation in Canada and the United States Highlights The Federal Reserve downgrades its growth forecast but stays the course with securities purchases tapering. Inflation
More informationThe Bank of Canada Causes a Surprise
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER The Bank of Canada Causes a Surprise # BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - HIGHLIGHTS ff United States: Hurricane Harvey causes jobless claims to explode. ff The Bank of Canada orders another key
More informationInvestors get edgier still
October 10, 2014 Investors get edgier still Highlights New jobless claims remain very low in the United States. Canada: The labour market created 74,100 jobs in September. A look ahead United States: Retail
More informationHurricanes Cause a Drop in Employment in the United States
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Hurricanes Cause a Drop in Employment in the United States # BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - HIGHLIGHTS ff United States: First drop in employment since 200. ff United States: Strongest monthly
More informationTough Negociations on NAFTA
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Tough Negociations on NAFTA # BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - HIGHLIGHTS ff United States: The Conference Board s consumer confidence index hit its highest point since October 2000. ff U.S.
More informationAnother disappointing quarter for the U.S. economy
JANUARY 27, 2017 WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Another disappointing quarter for the U.S. economy HIGHLIGHTS United States: Another quarter of modest real GDP growth wraps up a disappointing year. United States: Existing
More informationBrexit: Market reaction cools
June 30, 2016 Brexit: Market reaction cools Highlights Growth in U.S. consumption returns to a more normal pace. U.S. consumer confidence surges according to the Conference Board. Canada: As anticipated,
More informationThe Federal Reserve expects fewer rate increases
The Federal Reserve expects fewer rate increases March 18, 2016 Highlights The Federal Reserve is not ready for a second rate increase. United States: Retail sales fall slightly in February. Housing starts
More informationEmployment confirms an imminent U.S. key rate increase
MARCH 10, 2017 WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Employment confirms an imminent U.S. key rate increase HIGHLIGHTS United States: Further good employment growth. Canada: The trade balance improved slightly in January.
More informationU.S. real GDP slowed again
January 29, 2016 U.S. real GDP slowed again Highlights United States: More weak growth in real GDP. Unsurprisingly, the Federal Reserve opts for the status quo. U.S. consumer confidence picks up in January.
More informationBetter economic data in the United States
May 13, 2016 Better economic data in the United States Highlights United States: Retail sales post an encouraging rebound. U.S. consumer confidence goes up in May. Canada: Investment intentions remain
More informationCanadian Retail Sales Disappoint
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Canadian Retail Sales Disappoint #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS ff United States: Housing starts next in line to be affected by the hurricanes. ff After declining as a
More informationThe Bank of Canada raises its inflation forecast
April 17, 2014 The Bank of Canada raises its inflation forecast Highlights Retail sales surge more than forecast in the United States. United States: Disappointing rise in housing starts in March. Inflation
More informationThe Federal Reserve Starts Reducing its Balance Sheet
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER The Federal Reserve Starts Reducing its Balance Sheet #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS ff The Federal Reserve (Fed) announces a gradual wind-down of its balance sheet as
More informationCanada Spared from New U.S. Tariffs... for Now
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Canada Spared from New U.S. Tariffs... for Now #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS ff United States: 313,000 new jobs created in February! ff The U.S. balance of trade deteriorated
More informationThe focus is on Brexit
June 17, 2016 The focus is on Brexit Highlights Employment and Brexit keep U.S. key rates from going up United States: Retail sales continued to advance at a good clip in May, but industrial production
More informationCanada s economy surprisingly robust in the third quarter
November 28, 2014 Canada s economy surprisingly robust in the third quarter Highlights United States: Real GDP growth is revised upwards to 3.9%. United States: Surprise drop by the Conference Board s
More informationThe Canadian dollar keeps on sliding
January 15, 2015 The Canadian dollar keeps on sliding Highlights United States: Retail sales and industrial production ended 2015 down. Confidence climbed in January. Canada: Housing starts plunged in
More informationTotal inflation drops back below the lower target in Canada
Total inflation drops back below the lower target in Canada November 22, 2013 Highlights United States: Retail sales beat expectations, slightly. Home resales decline in the United States. United States:
More informationThe weather has hampered the Canadian labor market in April
May 9, 2014 The weather has hampered the Canadian labor market in April Highlights United States: The trade deficit improved slightly in March. United States: Labour productivity lost ground in the first
More informationCanadian inflation has returned to the median target
Canadian inflation has returned to the median target May 23, 2014 Highlights Home sales finally went up in the United States in April. Canada: The total annual inflation rate has reached the median target.
More informationA generalized upswing in bond yields
Cooperation Week October 16 to 22, 2016 Desjardins supports thousands of student retention and educational success projects, sources of greater economic prosperity. For more information, go to desjardins.com.
More informationConcerns rise over banks financial health in Europe
September 30, 2016 Concerns rise over banks financial health in Europe HIGHLIGHTS United States: Sharp rise in the Conference Board consumer confidence index. Canada: Real GDP by industry grew by 0.5%
More informationEncouraging indicators in the United States
November 18, 2016 Encouraging indicators in the United States HIGHLIGHTS United States: More firm growth in retail sales. Strong rebond for U.S. housing starts. Rising gas prices push consumer prices up
More informationThe Vancouver real estate market reacted strongly to the new tax
The Vancouver real estate market reacted strongly to the new tax September 16, 2016 HIGHLIGHTS United States: Retail sales and industrial output decline. United States: Regional manufacturing indexes head
More informationThe Canadian trade balance rebounds in September
The Canadian trade balance rebounds in September November 15, 2013 Highlights Industrial output in the United States dips slightly. United States: the New York Federal Reserve manufacturing index posts
More informationCanada s inflation surges above the median target
FEBRUARY 24, 2017 WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Canada s inflation surges above the median target HIGHLIGHTS United States: Home resales reach their highest level in 10 years. Canada: Wholesalers sales were up 0.7%
More informationCanadian household debt remains very high
September 12, 2014 Canadian household debt remains very high Highlights United States: Welcome acceleration in retail sales. A sharp increase in consumer credit in the United States in July. U.S. household
More informationFederal Reserve: the suspense remains
September 11, 2015 Federal Reserve: the suspense remains Highlights United States: The University of Michigan consumer confidence index deteriorates. The Bank of Canada leaves its key rates unchanged.
More informationCanada s real GDP rebounded last spring
August 29, 2014 Canada s real GDP rebounded last spring Highlights U.S. consumer spending fell in July, but consumer confidence is still going up. United States: Slight upside change to Q2 s real GDP growth.
More informationMarket reaction to Donald Trump s election is fairly upbeat
November 10, 2016 Market reaction to Donald Trump s election is fairly upbeat HIGHLIGHTS Donald Trump elected the 45 th president of the United States. Canada: Housing starts fell to 192,900 units in.
More informationIn the third quarter, Canadian real GDP showed its strongest growth in two years
In the third quarter, Canadian real GDP showed its strongest growth in two years November 29, 2013 Highlights United States: Healthy growth in building permits in September and October. Home prices continue
More informationThe U.S. economy picked up some pace in the third quarter
October 28, 2016 The U.S. economy picked up some pace in the third quarter HIGHLIGHTS United States: Real GDP expands a bit faster than expected. U.S. consumer confidence falls in October, according to
More informationSerious Doubts Remain despite Encouraging Signs
APRIL 18, 2019 ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL OUTLOOK Serious Doubts Remain despite Encouraging Signs #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS ff The global economy and the volume of trade both remain fragile,
More informationMarkets Bounce Back, but Doubts Remain as to the Strength of the Economy
FEBRUARY 20, 2019 ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL OUTLOOK Markets Bounce Back, but Doubts Remain as to the Strength of the Economy #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS ff Clouds continue to build over the
More informationConfusion Reigns as U.S. Budget Impasse Drags On
JANUARY 21ST, 2019 ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL OUTLOOK Confusion Reigns as U.S. Budget Impasse Drags On #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS ff The problems continue to mount in the euro zone. Industrial
More informationInterest Rates Continue to Climb
SEPTEMBER 3, RETAIL RATE FORECASTS Interest Rates Continue to Climb # BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS ff North American economic growth rebounded in the spring. ff The Bank of Canada and the
More informationCanadian Key Rates May Rise Shortly
JUNE 15, RETAIL RATE FORECASTS Canadian Key Rates May Rise Shortly #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS ff Positive signs for the global and Canadian economies. ff The Bank of could initiate
More informationRates Will Continue to Go Up in 2018
DECEMBER 1, RETAIL RATE FORECASTS Rates Will Continue to Go Up in #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS ff The economic context remains very favourable. ff Interest rates will continue to rise
More informationRenewed optimism despite looming U.S. monetary firming
November 1, 1 Renewed optimism despite looming U.S. monetary firming Highlights Investor optimism improves after a tough third quarter. Canada s economy is doing much better than in the first half of the
More informationDespite the Uncertainty, Monetary Tightening Is Expected to Continue
JUNE 1, RETAIL RATE FORECASTS Despite the Uncertainty, Monetary Tightening Is Expected to Continue #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS ff The latest economic data in North America is encouraging
More informationLabour Market: Quebec Loses Ground, Ontario Makes Gains
ECONOMIC NEWS Labour Market: Loses Ground, Makes Gains HIGHLIGHTS ff As in August, s labour market dipped slightly in September (-7,6). ff The unemployment rate ticked down from % to % due to the 12,4
More informationCanadian Rate Hikes Begin Quite Suddenly
SEPTEMBER 4, RETAIL RATE FORECASTS Canadian Rate Hikes Begin Quite Suddenly # BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS ff Economic growth is strong all around the world. ff The Bank of Canada quickly
More informationAnother break for borrowers
February, Another break for borrowers Highlights New concerns over emerging nations. The growth outlook remains favourable. The Bank of Canada s comments impact Canadian financial markets, especially the
More informationWEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY
July 31, 2017 [ W E E K LY E C O N O M I C C O M M E N TA R Y ] WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR THE MOST CRITICAL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
More information[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD
January 22, 2018 [ ] MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» The U.S economy and inflation expanded at a Modest to Moderate pace during December 2017, while wages continued to push higher according to the Federal
More information[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD MACRO & MARKET COMMENTARY. » Emerging Market had another unstable week as plunging currencies promoted
June 11, 2018 [ ] MACRO & MARKET COMMENTARY» Emerging Market had another unstable week as plunging currencies promoted central bank to act accordingly. The Central Bank of Turky and The Reserve Bank of
More informationThe difficult start to the year confirms that rates will remain very low
The difficult start to the year confirms that rates will remain very low February 9, 16 Highlights Tough start to the year on financial markets. Monetary policies will remain highly expansionist. The drop
More informationBusiness Debt ECONOMIC VIEWPOINT. Is It Really Better to Reduce It? ECONOMIC STUDIES DECEMBER 17, 2018
DECEMBER 17, ECONOMIC VIEWPOINT Business Debt #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA Is It Really Better to Reduce It? Business debt appears high in some countries. This can feed the fears surrounding future
More informationQuebec Ontario: Strong Job Creation in November, With Unemployment at About 5.5%
ECONOMIC NEWS : Strong Job Creation in November, With Unemployment at About % HIGHLIGHTS ff recorded a second consecutive monthly increase in employment, with 25,800 new jobs created in November. ff performed
More information[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD
February 26, 2018 [ ] MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» Federal Reserve officials see the economic growth and the acceleration of inflation as a good signal to continue to raise interest rate gradually over
More informationThe labour market heated up in Quebec and stabilized in Ontario in January
QUEBEC ONTARIO The labour market heated up in Quebec and stabilized in Ontario in January February 6, 15 highlights According to the labour force survey, 16, jobs were created in Quebec in January. At
More informationThe labour market stands still in August
QUEBEC ONTARIO September 5, 14 The labour market stands still in August highlights Statistics Canada reports that Quebec added a lacklustre 4,1 jobs in August. 4,1 Employment trends in Quebec and Ontario
More informationWEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD
October 09, 2017 [ W E E K LY E C O N O M I C C O M M E N TA R Y ] WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR THE MOST CRITICAL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» The storm impacted job report showed
More informationWEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY
July 03, 2017 [ W E E K LY E C O N O M I C C O M M E N TA R Y ] WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR THE MOST CRITICAL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» Central banker s comments dominated
More information[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD
February 19, 2018 [ ] MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» Last week, Global stock markets witnessed one of their best weeks in almost six years after two consecutive weeks in the red. The last week rally was mainly
More informationEditor: Felix Ewert. The Week Ahead Key Events Oct, 2017
Editor: Felix Ewert The Week Ahead Key Events 16 22 Oct, 2017 Tuesday 17, 11.00 ZEW Survey (Oct), Germany and EMU Germany SEB Cons. Previous Current Situation 89.5 88.5 87.9 Growth expectations 20.0 20.0
More informationEmployment Figures for September Down in Quebec, Up in Ontario
ECONOMIC NEWS Employment Figures for September Down in, Up in HIGHLIGHTS ff saw the highest job creation in in September, with new jobs. Part-time employment recorded the most gains. ff The unemployment
More informationQuebec and Ontario create jobs in May
ECONOMIC NEWS and create jobs in May #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS GRAPH ff created 14,9 new jobs in May. Job growth in and has been comparable for the past two years, despite the differences
More informationQuebec-Ontario: Demographics are shaping the labour market
MAY 5, 2017 ECONOMIC NEWS -: Demographics are shaping the labour market HIGHLIGHTS recorded a loss of 3,800 jobs in April, after an increase of 2,400 in the previous month. The unemployment rate climbed
More informationEmployment Stumbles in Quebec and Falls in Ontario in August
SEPTEMBER 7, 218 ECONOMIC NEWS Employment Stumbles in and Falls in in August HIGHLIGHTS ff posted a loss of 8,1 jobs in August, following growth of 95,5 jobs during the two previous months. It was part-time
More informationQuebec and Ontario: Employment Rises in March While the Unemployment Rate Treads Water
APRIL 6, 218 ECONOMIC NEWS and : Employment Rises in March While the Unemployment Rate Treads Water HIGHLIGHTS ff Both and boosted their employment ranks in March, with respective gains of 16, and 1,6.
More informationEditor: Thomas Nilsson. The Week Ahead Key Events Jul, 2017
Editor: Thomas Nilsson The Week Ahead Key Events 10 16 Jul, 2017 European Sovereign Rating Reviews Recent rating reviews Upcoming rating reviews Source: Bloomberg Monday 10, 08.00 NOR: CPI (Jun) SEB Cons.
More informationLETTER. economic. The price of oil and prices at the pump: why the difference? NOVEMBER bdc.ca
economic LETTER NOVEMBER 211 The price of oil and prices at the pump: why the difference? Since the end of April the price of crude oil based on the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark has dropped
More information